M.J. said:
I think the reality is nowadays with all the cable channels that air movies and sports, there is just not room for six major commercial networks. If one of The CW or MNTV fails, then there should be no replacement network, and let the survivor continue as the #5 network. Some stations could survive as independents, such as WGN or WPIX that can air sports and have a news department, but in a lot of smaller markets I think some stations should just shut down if they can't get other viable programming - although RTN is definitely a possibility for some, and there are smaller markets that can support independent stations, such as South Bend, Indiana which has WHME/46 (although it has translators in the Chicago market). Some markets are already over-saturated with Ions, A1s, Daystars, and infomercial transmitters.
MyNet was really created for the benefit of the top 60 markets. Below that there are almost never six full-power stations for which a general purpose network would be a good fit, even counting Ion stations. In those cases where MyNet was on its own full-power station, not digital or low power, below the top 60, it was usually a crime because the CW should have gotten those stations. To use your example of South Bend, both the CW and MyNet are on LPs there; WHME could have gotten either affiliation but it isn't really independent, or on the surface, a nominee for networkhood (Wikipedia labels it a LeSea - religious - station). Even ABC is an LP in South Bend. But the top 60 markets make up about 73% of all households.
If the CW was to fold, most stations in markets outside the top 60 - including South Bend - might make at least an attempt to switch to MyNet. The need to fold is mostly irrelevant. Low-power, and many CA, stations could conceivably fold without any huge loss to most people in the market; many of the LPs carrying the CW or MyNet are co-carried on the digital signals of "big brother" Big 4 stations. The only reason that's not the case with the CW and MyNet stations in South Bend is because they're co-owned with the aforementioned LP ABC affiliate. Those without big brothers are mostly owned by tiny companies with small budgets for which having a Big Six affiliation was reaching above their station anyway. Most top 60 markets would lose an affiliation on a full-service station, but a good chunk of them might be large enough that stations losing affiliations would be able to at least attempt independent-hood, if they weren't so whiny.
The real problem, if there is any, might be mid-size markets. But below the top 30 (only the poorest and smallest of which wouldn't be able to support an independent, at least in good economic times), there are still a good number of markets with only five nominees for networkhood, counting only full-power stations, anyway: Columbus (UPN and WB were on the same station, MyNet landed digital carriage on the ABC affiliate), Cincinnati (note that UPN was on a CA but the CW landed on digital - with the CBS affiliate - here), West Palm Beach (WB was on a CA, MyNet moved in on it), Grand Rapids (UPN was on a network of CAs, WB was on the Ion station, the CAs landed MyNet while the CW settled for digital carriage on the CBS station), Harrisburg (Wikipedia says - or said, anyway - that most people watched WB on WPHL, which went to MyNet; the UPN station thus went to CW but MyNet landed on the CBS affiliate's digital signal), Austin (shared a UPN station with San Antonio, that station went to CW but the local WB affiliate picked up both networks), and Richmond (WB was a secondary affiliation with the NBC affiliate, MyNet landed on digital with the Fox affiliate). (I'm not counting Knoxville even though MyNet is on digital with the CBS affiliate, on a channel that had been a UPN affiliate, because it has WMAK-DT, whose only distinction from the other full-service stations is that its closest thing to an analog signal is a couple of LPs, as far as I can tell.) It's still an open question what markets like Tulsa, Little Rock, Albany, and Fresno might do, or if they could support independents. Even in larger markets, there are cases where the CW station is owned by Sinclair Broadcast Group, which basically runs its
CW/MyNet affiliates as infomercial-thons already...
My question: In most but by no means all markets, MyNet landed on inferior stations - the CW's rejects. (Cincinatti and Hawaii, the latter probably the largest market that had no CW affiliate whatsoever when the network launched, are the two highest-profile exceptions.) In many cases, some of them cited above, MyNet is on low-power or digital while the CW gets a full-service station. In Seattle, Denver and St. Louis, the CW is on strong VHF stations; in the cases of Denver and St. Louis, they're on par with the Big Four in the market, complete with their own news, but nonetheless are in medium-large size markets and thus aren't exactly WGN. A fifth network would much prefer to be on KSTW, KWGN, and KPLR than the much weaker WRBU, which only started transitioning from a home shopping station to a UPN affiliate in 2002, KMYQ, which bumps MyNet programming one hour earlier so it can show news (produced by a co-owned Fox affiliate) at 9, or the sports-rich KTVD (local sports = preemptions = network execs pulling their hair out). If the CW folds, how easy would it be for MyNet to snap up those stations, considering contractural intricities?
Also, this is random, idle, unwarranted speculation here, but would the Time Warner Cable spin-off allow Time Warner to buy its own stations for a potential WB revival? If so, do you think they could make an offer Fox couldn't refuse for the MyNet O&Os and network (possibly backed by an affiliate revolt from people thinking Fox ownership, and a structure originially intended to make MyNet more of a syndication deal than a true network, is holding MyNet back - although other, weaker, affiliates may worry about potentially losing their large share of the ad space), and then shut down the latter so they could get the strongest affiliates possible for the aforementioned revival, and possibly rope in WPCH (the former WTBS, now Peachtree TV) while they're at it?
On a different, but possibly compatible, track of speculation, would the CW folding lead Tribune to start its own "WGN Network"?