Death of the Networks

[LKellerIII]

There is an episode of the original Star Trek where Mr. Spock informs a visitor from the
20th Century who inquired about television that "that particular form of entertainment did
not survive much beyond the start of the 21st. Century".

Spock was a bit off on that. Certainly computers and TV will merge to a greater extent, but television is NOT going anywhere.

I'm old enough to remember the widespread predictions of the future that were suggested in the 1960s. Though many predicted the rise of computers, it was more along the lines of water-heater sized mainframes that would run our homes - turn our lights and heat on and off automatically, and that kind of thing. NOBODY predicted the small size or influence of PCs, much less Smart Phones and the internet.

You forgot the prediction that the major network soaps were all going to be featuring
full-frontal nudity by 1987...

I remember reading a future prediction in the 1960s that before the turn of the century, Western society in general would become "clothing optional," and we would see naked people all over the place in public...weather permitting, of course. As a horny 12 year old at the time, this sounded fine to me. ;D

Note to whoever above posted about the predictions on self-driving cars. You should know that Google is working on it. I have not seen it personally, but one or more of the prototypes apparently drives around in the San Francisco Bay Area, with a back-up human driver inside, just in case something happens. From what I've read, s/he rarely has to intervene. California law has now been changed to make self-driving cars legal, though they are not quite ready for prime-time, apparently. They will be coming, however.

 

[BD Sullivan]

In March 1966, RCA (then parent company of NBC) Chairman David Sarnoff had a faily prescient look into the future, with talk that essentially foresaw cable, video streaming, internet, online shopping and DVD's:

"By the mid-70s and possibly sooner, high power broadcast satellites will beam television programs and motion pictures directly to home receivers anywhere in the world. In the not too distant future, information will flow in almost limitless quantities on laser light beams through hollow pipes extended from city to city.

"Our presentinstruments--telephone, radio, television, still and motion pictures, record and tape player--will merge into a comprehensive system which will become the communications center of the home.

"Through the communications center in the home, much of the daily business of the households will also be done. By pressing a button, the housewife will be able to look at the merchandise in department stores and other local shops and make her selections.

"She will push another button and the computer will place the order and make the necessary deduction from her bank account. She won't even have to write a check.

"Tomorrow's homes will have libraries of great films, comparable to today's collections of musical recordings."

 

[landtuna]

Note to whoever above posted about the predictions on self-driving cars. You should know that Google is working on it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE

 

[mysticnitekatt]

In March 1966, RCA (then parent company of NBC) Chairman David Sarnoff had a faily prescient look into the future...

But could he have seen that NBC would outlive RCA?! ;D

 

[BD Sullivan]

In March 1966, RCA (then parent company of NBC) Chairman David Sarnoff had a fairly prescient look into the future, with talk that essentially foresaw cable, video streaming, internet, online shopping and DVD's:

"By the mid-70s and possibly sooner, high power broadcast satellites will beam television programs and motion pictures directly to home receivers anywhere in the world. In the not too distant future, information will flow in almost limitless quantities on laser light beams through hollow pipes extended from city to city.

"Our presentinstruments--telephone, radio, television, still and motion pictures, record and tape player--will merge into a comprehensive system which will become the communications center of the home.

"Through the communications center in the home, much of the daily business of the households will also be done. By pressing a button, the housewife will be able to look at the merchandise in department stores and other local shops and make her selections.

"She will push another button and the computer will place the order and make the necessary deduction from her bank account. She won't even have to write a check.

"Tomorrow's homes will have libraries of great films, comparable to today's collections of musical recordings."

 

[nomadcowatbk]

In March 1966, RCA (then parent company of NBC) Chairman David Sarnoff had a faily prescient look into the future...

But could he have seen that NBC would outlive RCA?! ;D

or no US based TV manufacturers?

 

[anotherguyTN]

I saw RCA branded TVs in K Mart recently. They're manufactured by ON Corporation, whoever that is. http://tv.rca.com/company/corporate_information.asp

I know it's another situation where the RCA brand name is being licensed to ON. Here is a wikipedia article that lists who licenses the RCA brand on different products: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RCA_(trademark)

 

[w9wi]

"Self-driving cars" are not that far off, really it will come down to how much they will cost as to whether it will be something only rich people will be able to afford. As for brick and mortar stores, I think the online sales industry has killed these stores, "Tower Records", "Borders Books", "Circuit City", "CompUSA" and many others have bit the dust, not to mention newspapers too. I wouldnt be surprised if the next two major stores to bite the dust are "Best Buy" and "Barnes & Noble". I also would not be surprised if "Sears" or "KMart" went completely out of business too.

IMHO many motorists will refuse to buy self-driving cars, because self-driving cars will take longer to complete most trips. (because self-driving cars will carefully obey every traffic law -- too many humans don't.)

As for network television...

OTA may be only about 10% of the audience, but we see channels going to some pretty significant efforts to land a 10% improvement! Thanks to technology, it's costing less and less to serve OTA affiliates. Those affiliates are guaranteed a decent slot on cable/satellite; these days they even bring in a bit of revenue to the network. And the local news brings in an audience to sample your network shows that might never bother with NBC if it was an all-entertainment network somewhere up around channel 85.

The benefit to the local station is access to quality national programming -- a solid national newscast, special reports when justified, major sporting events -- that the station couldn't afford to produce on its own. This programming drives viewers who might, in turn, sample the local news where the station makes most of its money.

Where I see it going... Less syndicated programming. Increasingly, we'll see the gaps between network shows filled with local news, and with information programs produced by the local stations -- or more likely, by their group owners.


As for bricks-and-mortar stores...

Unfortunately I think you're on-target.

 

[landtuna]

"Self-driving cars" are not that far off, really it will come down to how much they will cost as to whether it will be something only rich people will be able to afford.

As others have said here....wait until the first self driving car runs over a nun in a crosswalk and watch how fast the genre disappears.

As for brick and mortar stores, I think the online sales industry has killed these stores, "Tower Records", "Borders Books", "Circuit City", "CompUSA" and many others have bit the dust, not to mention newspapers too.

If I owned a brick-and-mortar store specializing in commodity products I would be worried but there are lots of stores where browsing and touch-and-feel outweigh the financial benefit you might get by buying online.

And right now there is the added benefit of no sales tax for some online purchases (which will be disappearing) and enticements like free shipping (which cannot be maintained indefinitely). Once those are gone the price difference will narrow.

Shoppers and just hangers-out have always liked to visit a shopping district in person. All sorts of entertainment is possible there outside just the shopping experience that are not available online. Weekends, holidays and Christmastime shopping at the malls around me are madhouses and each year it seems to get busier. No empty storefronts. I think an equalization will be reached where both types of shopping get a percentage of the total shopping dollar but you won't see a total disappearance of brick-and-mortar stores anytime soon.

 

[LKellerIII]

As for brick and mortar stores, I think the online sales industry has killed these stores, "Tower Records", "Borders Books", "Circuit City", "CompUSA" and many others have bit the dust, not to mention newspapers too.

If I owned a brick-and-mortar store specializing in commodity products I would be worried but there are lots of stores where browsing and touch-and-feel outweigh the financial benefit you might get by buying online.

And right now there is the added benefit of no sales tax for some online purchases (which will be disappearing) and enticements like free shipping (which cannot be maintained indefinitely). Once those are gone the price difference will narrow.

Yes - there have also been some major failures, like toys and pet food online. People want to see, touch and feel the toys, and you can't do that with a little picture on a computer monitor. Shipping 40 lbs of dog food has got to be prohibitively expensive.

I tried to get into on-line grocery shopping, but, again - I want to touch, feel, and/or smell the food - especially the produce - not see a tiny generic one-inch photo.

I believe California now charges sales tax on on-line purchases. Amazon.com fought it for awhile, but gave up. Though I don't particularly like paying more taxes, I think this is only fair.