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Declining cities, declining markets?
- Thread starter dustintv
- Start date
TV markets do not end at the city limits. They are typically defined by several surrounding counties. So if people move out of Detroit and into the suburbs the viewership should be the same. If there is a decline in those markets you mentioned, it may have to do with more people moving from the north and into the Sun Belt.
> Okay this may sound stupid, but I'm curious.
>
>
> For declining cities such as Buffalo, Detroit, Rochester
> etc. how has viewership been for the local stations those
> markets that are seeing a decrease of population?
>
> Okay this may sound stupid, but I'm curious.
>
>
> For declining cities such as Buffalo, Detroit, Rochester
> etc. how has viewership been for the local stations those
> markets that are seeing a decrease of population?
>
> TV markets do not end at the city limits. They are typically
> defined by several surrounding counties. So if people move
> out of Detroit and into the suburbs the viewership should be
> the same. If there is a decline in those markets you
> mentioned, it may have to do with more people moving from
> the north and into the Sun Belt.
>
> > Okay this may sound stupid, but I'm curious.
> >
> >
> > For declining cities such as Buffalo, Detroit, Rochester
> > etc. how has viewership been for the local stations those
>
> > markets that are seeing a decrease of population?
> >
>
I think that is what he means. Markets such as Detroit and Buffalo are sinking in rank as sunbelt metros grow. Also, I would imagine that these markets don't just shrink - but grow older as well. A double whammy from an ad standpoint.
So, what are the practical implications of such demographic changes?
> defined by several surrounding counties. So if people move
> out of Detroit and into the suburbs the viewership should be
> the same. If there is a decline in those markets you
> mentioned, it may have to do with more people moving from
> the north and into the Sun Belt.
>
> > Okay this may sound stupid, but I'm curious.
> >
> >
> > For declining cities such as Buffalo, Detroit, Rochester
> > etc. how has viewership been for the local stations those
>
> > markets that are seeing a decrease of population?
> >
>
I think that is what he means. Markets such as Detroit and Buffalo are sinking in rank as sunbelt metros grow. Also, I would imagine that these markets don't just shrink - but grow older as well. A double whammy from an ad standpoint.
So, what are the practical implications of such demographic changes?
J
Joseph_Gallant
Guest
Detroit and Buffalo may be falling in rank, but they (and/or other markets whose rank is falling) may still be gaining population.
It's just that markets who are "moving up" in the rankings are growing at a faster pace.
Thanks to Hurricane Katrina and many people deciding not to return, the population in the New Orleans' market may in fact decline significantly over the next few years compared to what it was prior to the storm (with it's rank falling accordingly). But with that exception, every other TV market may well see population growth in the next few years. Again, it's just that the population some markets will grow faster than in others.
It's just that markets who are "moving up" in the rankings are growing at a faster pace.
Thanks to Hurricane Katrina and many people deciding not to return, the population in the New Orleans' market may in fact decline significantly over the next few years compared to what it was prior to the storm (with it's rank falling accordingly). But with that exception, every other TV market may well see population growth in the next few years. Again, it's just that the population some markets will grow faster than in others.
> For declining cities such as Buffalo, Detroit, Rochester
> etc. how has viewership been for the local stations those
> markets that are seeing a decrease of population?
Rochester is a "declining market" only in that other markets are growing. We're actually a growing area here - in fact we're supposed to grow larger than Buffalo in a decade or two. But we seem to have been screwed when it comes to market size and channel allocation. Buffalo has Niagara Falls, Syracuse should be quite viewable in Watertown and even towards Utica/Rome as well as south towards Auburn. I think the best we have here is Canandaigua.
We have no WB affiliate except on cable, and the UPN affiliate is LPTV. The nearest rimshot TV outlet is in an adjacent county and carries Pax or 'i' or whatever, and they don't even consider Rochester in their broadcasts - they consider themselves part of Buffalo's market.
We're a high tech city and although we've seen companies like Kodak letting a lot of people go, the University of Rochester medical center is building something new on every square inch of open land they can find and are probably the area's largest employer now.
> etc. how has viewership been for the local stations those
> markets that are seeing a decrease of population?
Rochester is a "declining market" only in that other markets are growing. We're actually a growing area here - in fact we're supposed to grow larger than Buffalo in a decade or two. But we seem to have been screwed when it comes to market size and channel allocation. Buffalo has Niagara Falls, Syracuse should be quite viewable in Watertown and even towards Utica/Rome as well as south towards Auburn. I think the best we have here is Canandaigua.
We have no WB affiliate except on cable, and the UPN affiliate is LPTV. The nearest rimshot TV outlet is in an adjacent county and carries Pax or 'i' or whatever, and they don't even consider Rochester in their broadcasts - they consider themselves part of Buffalo's market.
We're a high tech city and although we've seen companies like Kodak letting a lot of people go, the University of Rochester medical center is building something new on every square inch of open land they can find and are probably the area's largest employer now.
> Thanks to Hurricane Katrina and many people deciding not to
> return, the population in the New Orleans' market may in
> fact decline significantly over the next few years compared
> to what it was prior to the storm (with it's rank falling
> accordingly). But with that exception, every other TV market
> may well see population growth in the next few years. Again,
> it's just that the population some markets will grow faster
> than in others.
Houston probably added 100,000 new viewers post Katrina.
It's hard for northern cities to compete with a city like Las Vegas which can't build new homes fast enough.
The only possible revenge those of us coated in snow have is that all these people moving to coastal regions or California take their lives in their hands when the next tornado, hurricane, tsunami, earthquake, wildfire, killer bees or whatever moves on through. Rochester weather isn't always pretty, but it won't kill you unless you have a heart attack with a shovel, and your house won't be flooded, swept, blown, burned, or shaken to bits. I'll take the snow and our declining market size.
> return, the population in the New Orleans' market may in
> fact decline significantly over the next few years compared
> to what it was prior to the storm (with it's rank falling
> accordingly). But with that exception, every other TV market
> may well see population growth in the next few years. Again,
> it's just that the population some markets will grow faster
> than in others.
Houston probably added 100,000 new viewers post Katrina.
It's hard for northern cities to compete with a city like Las Vegas which can't build new homes fast enough.The only possible revenge those of us coated in snow have is that all these people moving to coastal regions or California take their lives in their hands when the next tornado, hurricane, tsunami, earthquake, wildfire, killer bees or whatever moves on through. Rochester weather isn't always pretty, but it won't kill you unless you have a heart attack with a shovel, and your house won't be flooded, swept, blown, burned, or shaken to bits. I'll take the snow and our declining market size.
> Detroit and Buffalo may be falling in rank, but they (and/or
> other markets whose rank is falling) may still be gaining
> population.
>
> It's just that markets who are "moving up" in the rankings
> are growing at a faster pace.
>
No, there are several metros that ARE shrinking. In fact, the latest census data indicate that Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New York lost population. In the case of NY, it's not hard to guess that western NY leads the exodus. This is, in part, thanks to economic factors.
The Detroit example also stands, that market is (at best) shrinking slightly - along with Flint.
So, my question stands.
> Thanks to Hurricane Katrina and many people deciding not to
> return, the population in the New Orleans' market may in
> fact decline significantly over the next few years compared
> to what it was prior to the storm (with it's rank falling
> accordingly). But with that exception, every other TV market
> may well see population growth in the next few years. Again,
> it's just that the population some markets will grow faster
> than in others.
Not true (see above). I'm not sure where you formulated this theory but it is incorrect. While it is quite true that there are many more areas where the population is growing than there are shrinking ones (something like 20 to 1), there are still parts of the US where the population is shinking in real terms - not just relative ones. It would be interesting to know how TV/radio ownership groups deal with these "slowly sinking" ships.
With regard to New Orleans, that is a very special case and yes - I think that we will see that as a much smaller market for years to come. What happens there between now and 2010 will be an interesting thing to watch. But, I would bet that Baton Rouge develops into Louisiana's largest market. Then again, the average per capita income in NO may actually rise to levels higher than before Katrina. A lot of people (especially lower income ones who didn't own land) will not return to the Crescent City.
> other markets whose rank is falling) may still be gaining
> population.
>
> It's just that markets who are "moving up" in the rankings
> are growing at a faster pace.
>
No, there are several metros that ARE shrinking. In fact, the latest census data indicate that Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New York lost population. In the case of NY, it's not hard to guess that western NY leads the exodus. This is, in part, thanks to economic factors.
The Detroit example also stands, that market is (at best) shrinking slightly - along with Flint.
So, my question stands.
> Thanks to Hurricane Katrina and many people deciding not to
> return, the population in the New Orleans' market may in
> fact decline significantly over the next few years compared
> to what it was prior to the storm (with it's rank falling
> accordingly). But with that exception, every other TV market
> may well see population growth in the next few years. Again,
> it's just that the population some markets will grow faster
> than in others.
Not true (see above). I'm not sure where you formulated this theory but it is incorrect. While it is quite true that there are many more areas where the population is growing than there are shrinking ones (something like 20 to 1), there are still parts of the US where the population is shinking in real terms - not just relative ones. It would be interesting to know how TV/radio ownership groups deal with these "slowly sinking" ships.
With regard to New Orleans, that is a very special case and yes - I think that we will see that as a much smaller market for years to come. What happens there between now and 2010 will be an interesting thing to watch. But, I would bet that Baton Rouge develops into Louisiana's largest market. Then again, the average per capita income in NO may actually rise to levels higher than before Katrina. A lot of people (especially lower income ones who didn't own land) will not return to the Crescent City.
> No, there are several metros that ARE shrinking. In fact,
> the latest census data indicate that Massachusetts, Rhode
> Island and New York lost population. In the case of NY,
> it's not hard to guess that western NY leads the exodus.
> This is, in part, thanks to economic factors.
Yes, but there are significant differences between the economies of Buffalo and Rochester. We escaped the rust belt problem and are now dealing with the Kodak and Xerox issues, but it's not causing people to flee the area for Phoenix.
But we're not losing any TV or radio stations from all of it.
> the latest census data indicate that Massachusetts, Rhode
> Island and New York lost population. In the case of NY,
> it's not hard to guess that western NY leads the exodus.
> This is, in part, thanks to economic factors.
Yes, but there are significant differences between the economies of Buffalo and Rochester. We escaped the rust belt problem and are now dealing with the Kodak and Xerox issues, but it's not causing people to flee the area for Phoenix.
But we're not losing any TV or radio stations from all of it.
> > No, there are several metros that ARE shrinking. In fact,
>
> > the latest census data indicate that Massachusetts, Rhode
> > Island and New York lost population. In the case of NY,
> > it's not hard to guess that western NY leads the exodus.
> > This is, in part, thanks to economic factors.
>
> Yes, but there are significant differences between the
> economies of Buffalo and Rochester. We escaped the rust
> belt problem and are now dealing with the Kodak and Xerox
> issues, but it's not causing people to flee the area for
> Phoenix.
>
> But we're not losing any TV or radio stations from all of
> it.
>
No one said anything about losing media outlets. The original question had to do with how they deal with long-term population loss. I added that demographic shift doubly condemn some of these areas. Most of western NY is in "shrink mode" - and Rochester only grew by less than 1% since 2000. That's a lot lower than the national average. Hardly a boom town - but the healthiest in western NY.
Population-losing SMSA's include: Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Binghampton, Dayton, Erie, Scranton, Utica and Youngstown. Syracuse is a population loser since 1990 - but grew a slight bit since 2000. I basically didn't count certain places that either grew between 1990-2000, but shrank since 2000 or vice versa.
All of the most recent data can be found here: http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/04statab/pop.pdf
So, again, what happens in these places? Buffalo, for example, is a much smaller market (rank and actual size) than it was in 1990. That can't be good for long-term stability at local TV/radio stations - which inevitably see rising costs and shrinking ad revenues....
>
> > the latest census data indicate that Massachusetts, Rhode
> > Island and New York lost population. In the case of NY,
> > it's not hard to guess that western NY leads the exodus.
> > This is, in part, thanks to economic factors.
>
> Yes, but there are significant differences between the
> economies of Buffalo and Rochester. We escaped the rust
> belt problem and are now dealing with the Kodak and Xerox
> issues, but it's not causing people to flee the area for
> Phoenix.
>
> But we're not losing any TV or radio stations from all of
> it.
>
No one said anything about losing media outlets. The original question had to do with how they deal with long-term population loss. I added that demographic shift doubly condemn some of these areas. Most of western NY is in "shrink mode" - and Rochester only grew by less than 1% since 2000. That's a lot lower than the national average. Hardly a boom town - but the healthiest in western NY.
Population-losing SMSA's include: Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Binghampton, Dayton, Erie, Scranton, Utica and Youngstown. Syracuse is a population loser since 1990 - but grew a slight bit since 2000. I basically didn't count certain places that either grew between 1990-2000, but shrank since 2000 or vice versa.
All of the most recent data can be found here: http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/04statab/pop.pdf
So, again, what happens in these places? Buffalo, for example, is a much smaller market (rank and actual size) than it was in 1990. That can't be good for long-term stability at local TV/radio stations - which inevitably see rising costs and shrinking ad revenues....
Meet my pet, Peeve
> Population-losing SMSA's include: Buffalo, Pittsburgh,
> Binghampton, Dayton, Erie, Scranton, Utica and Youngstown.
There are places in New York called East Hampton, Westhampton, Bridgehampton and Hampton Bays.
There is no place in New York called "Binghampton."
There's a "Binghamton," which was named after William Bingham, a wealthy Philadelphia banker of the late eighteenth century. It doesn't have a "p" in it. (In fact, it doesn't have much of ANYTHING left in it at all, but that's another story...<P ID="signature">______________
Tower Site Calendar 2006 JUST RELEASED! - <a target="_blank" href=http://www.fybush.com/nerw.html#calendar>www.fybush.com</a></P>
> Population-losing SMSA's include: Buffalo, Pittsburgh,
> Binghampton, Dayton, Erie, Scranton, Utica and Youngstown.
There are places in New York called East Hampton, Westhampton, Bridgehampton and Hampton Bays.
There is no place in New York called "Binghampton."
There's a "Binghamton," which was named after William Bingham, a wealthy Philadelphia banker of the late eighteenth century. It doesn't have a "p" in it. (In fact, it doesn't have much of ANYTHING left in it at all, but that's another story...
<P ID="signature">______________Tower Site Calendar 2006 JUST RELEASED! - <a target="_blank" href=http://www.fybush.com/nerw.html#calendar>www.fybush.com</a></P>
O
oldiesfan
Guest
Re: Meet my pet, Peeve
> There's a "Binghamton," which was named after
> William Bingham, a wealthy Philadelphia banker
> of the late eighteenth century. It doesn't have
> a "p" in it.
Shocker! (As All Access would intone.)
For years I thought the town had been named after
Capt. Wallace Burton Binghampton, USNR.
I could just scream.
;-)
> There's a "Binghamton," which was named after
> William Bingham, a wealthy Philadelphia banker
> of the late eighteenth century. It doesn't have
> a "p" in it.
Shocker! (As All Access would intone.)
For years I thought the town had been named after
Capt. Wallace Burton Binghampton, USNR.
I could just scream.
;-)
> Yes, but there are significant differences between the
> economies of Buffalo and Rochester. We escaped the rust
> belt problem and are now dealing with the Kodak and Xerox
> issues, but it's not causing people to flee the area for
> Phoenix.
That's exactly what caused me to flee the Rochester area for Phoenix.
But your point is still valid...the Rochester area is an island of relative stability in a sea of economic decline. Unfortunately, due to historical factors, they will never be thought of as the pre-eminent economic market, TV or otherwise, and will continue to be underserved. What's your area code again?<P ID="signature">______________
Dave</P>
> economies of Buffalo and Rochester. We escaped the rust
> belt problem and are now dealing with the Kodak and Xerox
> issues, but it's not causing people to flee the area for
> Phoenix.
That's exactly what caused me to flee the Rochester area for Phoenix.
But your point is still valid...the Rochester area is an island of relative stability in a sea of economic decline. Unfortunately, due to historical factors, they will never be thought of as the pre-eminent economic market, TV or otherwise, and will continue to be underserved. What's your area code again?<P ID="signature">______________
Dave</P>
Re: Meet my pet, Peeve
> > Population-losing SMSA's include: Buffalo, Pittsburgh,
> > Binghampton, Dayton, Erie, Scranton, Utica and Youngstown.
>
>
> There are places in New York called East Hampton,
> Westhampton, Bridgehampton and Hampton Bays.
>
> There is no place in New York called "Binghampton."
>
> There's a "Binghamton," which was named after William
> Bingham, a wealthy Philadelphia banker of the late
> eighteenth century. It doesn't have a "p" in it. (In fact,
> it doesn't have much of ANYTHING left in it at all, but
> that's another story...
>
The sad thing is that I know better! A total slip of the fingers on the keyboard. Thanks for the correction Mr. Fybush. And, my apologies to all readers in Binghamtom and in the rest of the Southern Tier.
> > Population-losing SMSA's include: Buffalo, Pittsburgh,
> > Binghampton, Dayton, Erie, Scranton, Utica and Youngstown.
>
>
> There are places in New York called East Hampton,
> Westhampton, Bridgehampton and Hampton Bays.
>
> There is no place in New York called "Binghampton."
>
> There's a "Binghamton," which was named after William
> Bingham, a wealthy Philadelphia banker of the late
> eighteenth century. It doesn't have a "p" in it. (In fact,
> it doesn't have much of ANYTHING left in it at all, but
> that's another story...
>
The sad thing is that I know better! A total slip of the fingers on the keyboard. Thanks for the correction Mr. Fybush. And, my apologies to all readers in Binghamtom and in the rest of the Southern Tier.
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