Books could now be written about this topic, alone.
Let's begin with this very thread as starters -- first, without mixing "Radio" with "Internet" metaphors. That's an entirely different understanding. Important, yes, but without bearing on the demise of mom and pop radio.
Take a look at this entire forum on R-I. Are we really surprised at the demise of AM radio? Today, even here -- if not especially here -- we focus more on "why I can't dx AM radio anymore," or "how far out does this station get?" or, it's not fun listening to AM on the Internet because, well, it's just not the same."
It's NOT about AM content. AM content has been deteriorating for years and years and years. It's as near death as an "ancient modulation" to the very demo played here -- the young audience of listeners who has grown up since they were born with cellphones in one hand, texting with the other, the Internet, FM radio (if that), HDTV, mp3 players, iPhones, iPod, iPod Touch, laptops, tablets (the computer type), Hulu, YouTube, dowloading (legal and illegal,) iTunes and what did I leave out?
We've long ago forgotten about "content." It doesn't exist anymore. National syndication on mom & pop AM & FM is about under capitalization, way too many radio stations and signals and a staunch refusal to change. "I've made it before, I'll make it now," -- all in the face of changing demographics, lifestyles and economics in markets so small to markets so large.
It's happening everywhere, not just in teeny tiny suburban umbrella markets -- but everywhere. I live in a community of 237,000 souls -- served by, in-market, 28 radio stations that are "home" to this market. 28 radio stations. How many are making money? Only two "conglomerates" -- and only because they own a dozen stations between them. And even those are making huge sums of money.
Take a look, as an experiment, something I've just done. go to the R-I "Ratings" page. Pick 5 markets around you -- both large and small. Figure in the "suburban stations" that are may be in their own rated markets.
Go ONLY to the top 5 stations -- the ones where, in this economy, end up with 80% of the billing and revenue punch in the market.
Now, look at the rankings, be they the forgiving and uncountable 6+ or 12+ or the "saleable demos" of 18-49 and 25-54 (which is now dropping as the leading sales demo.)
Then, watch what happens: FM, FM, FM, FM, FM. For every WSB, there are FIVE FM's. And the AM's that are making are the heritage AM's with big signals and huge power. Plus, the upper end demos that mass together to make a huge audience with huger time-spent-listening averages.
The "mom and pops" don't stand a chance -- with the exception of those outlying areas that are virtually unreachable by outside signals (and I count over 80 in my market) or still suffer from the demo spread that is solidly in the 60s or 70s.
My local AM (I don't work for them anymore,) is tied for 6th or 7th in the 28 stations listed. But, its demo average is 68 years -- older females and only slightly younger males.
And the situation is widespread.
The county to the south of me -- (I'm in San Luis Obispo, CA) -- is the same. Santa Barbara County, top 5 FM. Monterey County to the north -- top 5 FM. Santa Cruz - top 3 FM, followed by out-of-market monster, KGO, at #3, then the next group of stations in the top 10, all FM. Fresno -- of the Top 25 stations in the market -- only ONE station - KMJ-AM -- is not only #1, but the ONLY AM STATION in the top 24 stations. The ONLY AM. And it is a 50kw news/talk blowtorch with a lot of nationally syndicated content, as well as an FM sister that is also Talk known as "The FM KMJ."
And Bakersfield, has the same situation. In LA - of the top 12 stations -- only the "More Stimulating Talk Radio" of monster KFI/640 makes it to the top 4 ... and the ONLY AM station in the top dozen, followed by all news KNX.
Is is, or can it change?
Too many stations, to much growth away from AM radio, now, a migration of those AM signals to FM, HD2 or HD3 and still not much of a blip on so-called (incorrectly) "HD Radio." So, it's your guess.
And small town mom and pops are not the "breeding ground" of talent as they once were. Ever heard the airchecks on the employment opportunities board?
Add to that, the thousands of talented broadcasters "on the beach" -- and I don't mean merely the cutting edge "shock jocks" who have, in many cases, weaker ratings to show for their "creative ingenuity," be it on FM or AM.
Will it change?
Not quickly.
And not as long as Clear Channel, Citadel, Cumulus and others "import" programming from their other markets in "cost savings" to appease their banker/owners or their shareholders.
Mom and pop radio is in critical condition. Be thankful for those who really are making it -- not by speculation or wild guesses -- but really and truly making it.
I bet the numbers will amaze you .