Does the Wave KTWV have a healthy future?

[SJFAN]

With many smooth jazz sations around the country flipping is the Wave in danger? The Wave didn't do well in PPM. Does the Wave have a chance of survival or a chance at becoming the next SJ station to hit the dust?

 

[AnotherCat]

They are a high billing station right now. As long as revenues stay high they will continue. That's a big "if" though because the PPM results will eventually affect revenues. Most likely the difference between actual listening and "loyalty diary keeping" is going to hit some of these heritage SJ stations. With a diary people tend to write down their habit more than actual behavior. If you've been a loyal listener to The WAVE, WNUA or another long term SJ station you may continue to write it down in a diary and write in longer TSL than you are actually doing. PPM measures what you actually listen to, not what your loyalty is and what seems to be happening is that TSL drops with these stations on PPM measurements. Could it be because there has been such a reduction in compelling content that people try to listen out of loyalty but the blandness, and repetition of 30-40 year old songs drive them away. They are loyal to the concept (what these stations were in the beginning) but not the actuality (what they sound like today), thus PPM tells the story.

 

[Bill Harmonic]

Cat's point on content along with the PPM addition is right on and will signal a change for many of the smooth jazz stations as we know them. Hence the new moniker of smooth ac and the BA plan to evolve their stations, and since they control the critical mass, the format into the vocal oriented urban ac that would play only three or four instrumentals each hour if that many. The Wave is making to much money at the moment to change right now. I would look to lower hanging fruit on the food chain such as WJJZ or even KKSF to go away before LA. My own guess is now that BA owns the Jones stations, providing that those affiliates stay with the format, we might see the smooth ac roll out on the network before the individual stations move in that area. Just keep in mind that this type of smooth ac has been in play on Love 94 in Miami for a couple of years now and even though they are down in the ratings, they have seemed to have made the transistion. But as I always say, we need to find the opportunity in all this! The faster this (old format) fails, the faster it will be that the right thing comes back around.

 

[cklw800]

Great PPM/diary breakdown Cat! Great insight on the state of the format "Phil" Harmonic (hooked on Harmonics). All I can add is that GMs nervous about the format may opt to go on the cheap whether they're making money or not. Nervous GMs tend to jettison paid staff and go to the BA Network. That way they can afford the lower ratings from the change while they ponder a new format then go for it. My take on the future of any SJ station right now is that if you're getting paid for presenting it, you're an endangered spieces while a cheaper presentation is available (BA). Stations will be gutted of on-air staff first before anything else happens. After the bloodletting, even at the "untouchables" like KTWV, WNWV, KYOT and maybe even Detroit. we'll see flips to BA or another format. My bets to go away from the format are WJJZ, one or both of the Columbus (Ohio) area SJ stations and poor Dayton, which really needs to be put out of its misery fast (went to Cincinnati over the weekend and heard dead air and big gaps from songs to voice tracks, as usual).

 

[Bill Harmonic]

I know for a fact that Saga will split the smooth jazz signals in Columbus when the 104.3 move in is complete sometime late this year or early next year. I believe that they will keep it on 103.5 which now gets the majority of the diary mentions over 104.3. But I don't know how such a split will change the relationship with the listener. There's a better question in that does Saga keep the format in Columbus and Milwaukee when and if it changes to to smooth ac? In Columbus does that compete with their big dog Sunny 95 or will it go after the urban ac in town and leave their ac alone? We know that when a SJ station signs off, the urban ac's benefit more than anything else. The only advantage to them keeping it is that it's been there since 1995 and that except for a couple of local voiced tracked shifts, it's completely turn key, has nobody's attention in the building and still gets around a 2.4 (12+), give or take a tenth here and there. They have bigger problems with their oldies station than SJ. In Milwaukee, a change to smooth ac will be in direct competition with their urban ac. How does that fit? Smooth jazz and Saga is an oil and water mix and not something they are really comfortable with. They are a company better suited to do other things in both those markets. I believe they're just waiting for the right moment and the right conditions to change.

 

[AnotherCat]

The question then is where does smooth A/C fit in the total A/C picture? With mainstream A/C getting "hotter" to accomodate the new generation moving into the demo, Urban A/C doing something similar with some melodic hip hop titles entering the mix, Hot A/C still on the map sounding like CHR but with more 90s and without the hip-hop, as well as the Bob-type stations and "Movin" rhythmic 80s/90s/today(which seems to be flatlining).

Is there really a niche for a station that plays a mix of early 80s R&B ballads (100 Ways 1000 times), tired EWF and Stevie Wonder songs,
instrumental versions of tired EWF and Stevie Wonder songs, and current R&B ballads that can't get traction at Urban A/C because they just aren't very good so they are being worked on Smooth A/C. PPM returns seem to be telling us that it is not something that listeners stick with for long. Eliminating instrumentals further and adding more old tired songs or inferior currents probably won't turn that tide.

Add to that that if they stay as gold oriented as they are now does a segment of the audience just leave for the local oldies station?

Not to sound out of it but is Miami PPM yet? If so how is Love 94 doing? I have a lot of jobs, sometimes its hard to keep up.

 

[Bill Harmonic]

Love 94 has seen better. It hangs in there but it hasn't been in it's present landscape for quite some time. PPM is not in Miami yet. The last 12+ (that's all I can get...sorry) figures are Summer 07/3.5, Fall 07/4.2, Winter 07/3.1, Spring 08/2.7 and the latest trend is 2.9. It has usually stayed in upper three's to low fours for the most part. Very good question on how smooth ac fits the total ac picture. Sanity would say that it's just a variation on the theme. BA would lean it urban with a small dose of instrumentals. Sucess would depend on cume which means you would have to advertise the daylights out of it to get bodies in any number that means money. That's not gonna to happen anytime soon for the majority of the players especially those on the network. One thing about smooth jazz is that it was a HUGE TSL format. You had a smaller audience but they sat there for a very long time which made it work for the advertisers. You know advertisers like Mercedes Benz and Rolex.

I also heard today that BA is working with WLOQ in Orlando. Don't know how much truth there is to that but the source is credible and it sure would make sense.

 

[AnotherCat]

I'd be willing to bet that Love 94 takes a hit when PPM comes in. They are one of those heritage stations that people undoubtedly write in out of loyalty a lot more than they actually listen. Like the WAVE, their listeners identify with them and still believe that carries a certain cache but do they actually listen as much as they used to when it sounded like what they identify it with?

I can't see much of a niche for a 45-64 gold driven urban B/EZ format, especially if they play weak vocals just because the label kisses up to them (can you say Ryan Shaw and Wayne Brady?) which is basically what Smooth A/C is? We'll see.

The BA/WLOQ thing is a side topic probably but I spend a fair amount of time in Orlando and have been attending LOQ events since I moved back to FL. Even when they went overboard on the quirky side due to Mr. Gross, like the time they played trad jazz vocals and smooth jazz instrumentals, they always sounded like Orlando. Now they sound like a cheap imitation of LA or Chicago. When their new PD, who was a BA PD before, came in they really changed their sound to align it with the BA sound (in other words they play "100 Ways" a lot : ) They have been doing BA since then, just not paying for it, so they might as well step under the umbrella.