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DX’ing AM/MW in 2040

K

Kevin

Guest
I think DX’ing the AM band in the U.S.A. in the next 20 years will actually be interesting. I believe that we will have only around 1000 stations left on AM at that time, currently according to the FCC as of September 30, 2020 we have 4560 AM stations on the air in the U.S.A. So I think with the AM band thinning out by than, DX’ing could be an interesting event. What are your thoughts.
 
Kevin said:
I think DX’ing the AM band in the U.S.A. in the next 20 years will actually be interesting. I believe that we will have only around 1000 stations left on AM at that time, currently according to the FCC as of September 30, 2020 we have 4560 AM stations on the air in the U.S.A. So I think with the AM band thinning out by than, DX’ing could be an interesting event. What are your thoughts.
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The noise floor from power lines and various devices will be so high then that most people outside of extreme rural areas won't get much but very strong locals on AM anyway. The spots on the dial where your translator-less local AMs used to be before going belly-up will be occupied by grinding, buzzing electronic hash. DXing will be dead, for all intents and purposes.
 
If you use any of the European SDRs, you would have seen some of it play out. Since I started using the Eschende, Netherlands rig, several frequencies have opened up because strong Europeans have left the air. Though in the US, there often is a "greater fool" (like Tavis Smiley) to keep some of these facilties going, once the boomer generation gies away, those stations will be museum pieces.
 
I think all three of you guys make excellent points. I was thinking just this past week that "the herd is thinning just a bit", which is the flip side, my personal reaction to when a station goes dark. The resultant less crowded band can create more opening, but that's often more than offset by a higher noise floor. And then there's the Europe example. I was on on a vacation with my daughter in law's family near Florence Italy four years ago, and it was downright wierd to hit the rental car radio scan button (daytime) in a fairly well developed area and have it make only two or three stops.
 
The herd will definitely be quite thin by then. I think the noise which increases yearly will just get worse. I do most of my DXing on remote SDR's now. There's just too much noise in my area for me to be able to DX like I used to at home.
 
I thought I was the only one using SDRs for my DXing now.

Good to know I'm not alone.

The noise has gotten so bad here that I can't use my regular radios anymore. :confused:
 
In 2040, I think the question won't be how many stations will exist on the AM band (IMO,none) but how many stations will still be broadcasting on the FM band.
 
gar hi said:
I thought I was the only one using SDRs for my DXing now.

Good to know I'm not alone.

The noise has gotten so bad here that I can't use my regular radios anymore. :confused:
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It's pretty bad on some US-based SDRs as well. I like to DX the ham bands and the Utah and Pennsylvania SDRs I use often have pretty high noise floors.
 
CTListener said:
It's pretty bad on some US-based SDRs as well. I like to DX the ham bands and the Utah and Pennsylvania SDRs I use often have pretty high noise floors.
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I had hopes of getting up to the Utah site to look for the interference issues, but lots of things got in the way.
It's located out in the boonies, but there is a water pumping station and power substation next door. The power stuff was rebuilt about two years ago. Could still be power lines along the road, though. They are pretty old.
 
I agree the band will keep thinning out. In the Chicago area, stations on 850, 1450 (one of the two sharing licensees), 1470 and 1580 have disappeared in the last few years. Nobody has come along to apply for the licenses.

I'd imagine you'll still have the 50 kw blowtorches on the air and solid regional and local stations that engage with their audiences. Maybe the remainder of stations will be paid-religion types hanging on. I can't imagine syndicated radio will have a large audience on radio by then; most will be podcasts and the like.

One thing is sure. There will always be pests in the way of the next great catch!

My noise level is fine but I'm pretty far from my neighbors; only have trouble with a couple spots on the dial depending on where I am in the house. And listening outside and in the car is still fine.
 
CTListener said:
It's pretty bad on some US-based SDRs as well. I like to DX the ham bands and the Utah and Pennsylvania SDRs I use often have pretty high noise floors.
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There are some really good SDRs but many with bad noise floors on medium wave (even Edinburgh can have some occasional noise).
 
I have found some relief in listening to the expanded band stations during gray hours.
Since they are (almost) all running the same signals, their mutual interference contours would remain the same if the commission would allow them to do what they permitted on the graveyard channels in 1982, run day power full time.
 
I just know the news/talk format in general is going to look vastly, VASTLY different in 2040. George Noory will be 90. Rush Limbaugh will likely not be with us. Sean Hannity will likely be retired. Syndicators will find new talent for news/talk but who? At this point, social media is the hot zone right now...NOT a 50KW AM. The future of even 50K AMs are even up in the air.
I'd say AM will die a slow and long death, likely be AM-to-FM transition similar to the DTV transition of 2009 (with exceptions for a few stations that need the rural/emergency audience like KRVN, KOA and WWL - albeit just simulcasting the FM) and by 2040 it may sound like current analog TV...nobody home and nothing but noise. Maybe Cuba will still blare Rebelde and Progreso into the atmosphere 24/7.

FM may survive a little better, but many current formats will not survive. I doubt classic rock and classic hits make it unless they are playing Adele and Linkin Park. DXing will likely be harder as the FCC forces every AM station onto FM, possibly with a financial incentive. A town like mine may be a little easier, as we only have one AM (KXLE-1240) and it's fully satellite talk and Seahawks/Mariners anyways. They never applied for an FM translator. But DXing in Spokane - Seattle - Boise - fuggitaboutit!! Translators will be on every open channel they can find PLUS possibly extra translators for nearby towns and in extreme cases, possibly on first-adjacents to locals.

TV DX might not even exist anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if the only TV band left is VHF by 2040, if they haven't fully transitioned to internet-fed apps like Pluto, Hulu and YouTube TV. They will use the rest of UHF by then for what will be 6G, 7G, 8G...

But who knows. We may be dealing with the effects of COVID-39 in early 2040, the 16th mutation of COVID-19. Let's hope not. Either that or the only FM station left on the air, with a dozen simulcasts, is K-LOVE and Air 1. Nooooooo!!
 
Ai4i said:
I have found some relief in listening to the expanded band stations during gray hours.
Since they are (almost) all running the same signals, their mutual interference contours would remain the same if the commission would allow them to do what they permitted on the graveyard channels in 1982, run day power full time.
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I have often wondered about why they didn't go to 10 kW Night. Is there a Treaty Restriction on the 1610-1700 kHz Band that anyone knows about outside of North America? It would multiply the interfering signals and NIF contours by a factor of 3.162. The Class IVs/Class Cs doubled the interference and NIF (rarely talked about with this class, but reportedly averaging 20-25 mV/m).
 
If you want an idea of how great it isn't for DXers when a band 'thins out', just take a spin across the 31 meter band any evening. Not only do the 'pests' disappear, the 'DX' also disappears. Even in 2012 31 meters had plenty of activity. That was only 8 years ago.

FM will last longer. If only because of the massive plethora of radios out there for potential listeners, and online streaming of music is expensive, so pay-to-play may be the norm online. If the economy dives over the next couple years, we may start to see an acceleration of the 'thinning' process.

Either way, we're in for an interesting ride.
 
By 2040 there will be very little left in the ex-shortwave bands. Maybe CNR1 and Brother Stair. The only purpose will be the ham bands which will still be alive and well and the ARRL will still have their contests and Field Days.
 
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