dying AM radio

[davideduardo]

All I'm saying is that the Emergency Alert System has relied on not just Telephone, but the AM stations that cover most of the nation.

AM stations did not cover most of the nation, except at night. At the time that the EAS replaced the EBS in 1997, FM stations covered significantly more population than AMs do in the daytime. But the media never grasped this with the New York Times writing "[FEMA] activates the alert system nationally at the behest of the White House on 34 50,000-watt stations that reach 98 percent of Americans."

In fact, in the daytime, those 50 kw stations cover more like 35% of the US population. And, while those same stations reach, with considerable variation, more of the population at night, few Americans in the 1990's and beyond ever listen to an out of town AM station so they would not hear any alerts.

Imagine how many Primary Entry Points the FCC will have to support in FM to meet just about the same coverage that a smaller group of AM Stations can support.

In most markets, the FMs outcover the best of the AMs. Whether it is Ishpeming, MI or Flagstaff, AZ or Tallahassee, nearly all the local FMs vastly outcover the day and night coverage of local AM stations... and those places are too far away from a major 50 kw AM for daytime reception and for reliable, easy night reception.

To cover the entire nation or even to adequately cover a region or zone, in most of the US, FM does a vastly better job with fewer primary stations needed.

From a safety standpoint, AM may just end up being there always.

Why? Many devices that have FM today do not have AM. If the industry gets more cell phones enabled, those will only pick up FM, ever.

And then there is the issue that many Millenials don't really know what AM is and have no clue where to find a local station, let alone how to turn the band on if their radio even has it.

Even if (lets hope it doesn't) the AM band is restricted to 640 and 1240 just to have that nationwide coverage should the Common Alerting Protocol (EAS over the Internet) and Weather Radio fail.

Most AM transmitters and antenna systems today can't be moved to another frequency like they could in the late 50's. Solid state transmitters will simple "stand down" if they don't see a perfect antenna match. To do 640 and 1240 ever agan, it would require separate transmitters built by the government... but the question is WHY?

I don't think the whole band is going away and if it is it is just stupid out of the reason that no station will ever have the coverage that AMs have now to cover the nation in an Emergency.

As I said, in nearly every market the Class B or Class C FMs cover vastly more than any of the AMs do and they do it reliably, day and night.

 

[semoochie]

I'm still scratching my head about the "11/9/11" reference -- I think he is trying to refer to the horrendous events of September 11, 2001 but I can't really be sure -- but I'll be happy to provide the glossary he didn't:

EAS - Emergency Alert System, the present incarnation of what started as Conelrad and was later EBS (Emergency Broadcast System)/EANS (Emergency Alert Notification System).

PEP - Primary Entry Point, those stations in EAS who are designated as the stations that are monitored by other station's EAS receivers and are therefore able to generate a EAS alert.

CAP - Common Alerting Protocol, the Internet-based methodology by which the Federal Emergency Management Agency creates and disseminates EAS alerts across multiple platforms (radio, television, NOAA radio).

Wx - Industry abbreviation for "weather information".

Glad to help out even as this thread heads off down yet another sidetrack.

Since the poster was talking about the EAS system, I got the feeling that he was referring to a major snafu, with the EAS system on November 9, 2011. I looked it up and sure enough, there was a national EAS test on that day. Everything else I found was from You Tube but I thought the printed word might be better, so here's what Wikipedia had to say: Results of November 9, 2011 test[edit]

Screen announcing the nationwide test of the EAS, 9 November 2011, mainly generated by the EAS decoder at cable operator headends, listing that the test was generated within the District of Columbia rather than locally.
On November 9, 2011, after the national test was attempted,[20] stations began calling in saying that some of their receivers were not able to relay the test or simply just did not get the test at all; DirecTV users reported even hearing Lady Gaga's "Paparazzi" throughout the test.[17][20]
According to the FCC, 18% of stations failed to either receive or retransmit the alert.[21] The message, according to some, also lacked the alert code which would allow the President to speak. Due to a feedback loop in the PEP system, the test could be heard several times in the background, and the EOM (end of message) code was sent twice, violating EAS rules. The test was cut down to 30 seconds rather than the proposed three minutes.
On April 12, 2013, the FCC released the results of the November 9, 2011 test.[21] Although there were several frequently reported issues, the FCC states that the test demonstrated that the national EAS architecture is basically sound. Some of these problems included:
Bad audio quality[21]
A malfunction at the National Primary level inserted a second level of header tones into the audio portion of the message, which created a large-delay reverb effect and noisy background levels, which increased in intensity each time the EAN message was passed on. Since then, FEMA has reconfigured their equipment correctly.[21]
Lack of a Primary Entry Point in some areas, leaving those areas without a direct connection to FEMA[21]
At the time of the test, there was no established Primary Entry Point in Portland, Oregon. The Oregon EAS State Plan instructed all stations west of the Cascades (including Portland) to monitor public radio station KOPB-FM, which would receive the alert from the NPR Squawk Channel. The audio quality of the alert that KOPB-FM received via the NPR Squawk Channel was exceptionally poor, and most monitoring stations' equipment did not recognize the alert at all or only broadcast the first few seconds of the alert. The FCC has since expanded PEP coverage to West of the Cascades (including Portland).[21]
Use of alternatives to PEP-based EAN distribution[21]
The FCC found that some stations chose to use alternatives to the PEP-based daisy-chain mode of propagation, and that some of these alternatives may not be able to receive the EAN effectively in times of emergency. The FCC has advised these stations to request approval from the FCC for these alternative ways of receiving the EAN.
Inability of some participants to receive/transmit the EAN[21]
Some EAS Participants stated that, although they heard the EAN from their monitoring stations, they were not able to rebroadcast it to their audience. The FCC found that the cause of this was usually operator error, or that the Participant's equipment was programmed incorrectly.
Short test length[21]
The FCC found that some EAS equipment manufacturers designed their equipment to not rebroadcast EANs shorter than 75 seconds due to a misinterpretation of the FCC regulations. Another EAS Participant suggested that the 30 second duration of the test was insufficient to allow its engineers to manually override its equipment when automatic equipment functions failed.
The first-ever Nationwide EAS Test was a success in that it demonstrated that the national EAS would generally perform as designed, if activated.[21] At the same time, the test showed several areas that need improvement. The FCC says they will continue to work with FEMA, EAS participants and other EAS stakeholders to address these problems.

 

[FredLeonard]

The argument seems to be: Keep AM alive for EMS. Heck of a business model.

I get alerts on my smartphone. Who needs EMS? Besides, ESM only works if you're listening to radio at the time. My smartphone starts making funny noises and I can read the message.

OK, keep AM alive for illiterates with no mobile devices (impoverished or troglodytes). Also a heck of a business model. Keep an obsolete technology going supported by advertising for the most sales resistant.

Stopped at the spirits shoppe to get some wine for Christmas. The store used to be a Blockbuster. VCRs and VCR rental: Even deader than AM radio. Both industries from National Amusements.

 

[TheBigA]

The argument seems to be: Keep AM alive for EMS. Heck of a business model.

EAS has nothing to do with a business model. It's a federal requirement. Radio stations don't do it for money.

If you have a problem with any of this, contact your Congressman.

 

[PTBoardOp94]

Why? Many devices that have FM today do not have AM. If the industry gets more cell phones enabled, those will only pick up FM, ever.

And then there is the issue that many Millenials don't really know what AM is and have no clue where to find a local station, let alone how to turn the band on if their radio even has it.

I personally haven't had a working AM tuner in my home in about 4 years.

I've just purchased a new clock radio for one of my relatives. It doesn't have an AM tuner either. Small sample size and all, but many of the tuners on the market seem to lack AM>

 

[FredLeonard]

EAS has nothing to do with a business model. It's a federal requirement. Radio stations don't do it for money.

If you have a problem with any of this, contact your Congressman.

Obviously, you missed the point (yet again). The earlier comment was we need AM because of EAS.

 

[TheBigA]

The earlier comment was we need AM because of EAS.

Depends on who you mean by "we."

The earlier comment I saw said nothing about the public. It was all about the government.

 

[Avid Listener]

This happens to be part of the law that won't change. How do I know this? Because it is the entire foundation on which the American system of broadcasting is based. The Congress simply has no appetite for even considering that kind of change in the law. If they had, they might have broached it 15 years ago. They didn't. And they never will. That's why you should at least READ the law before you talk about wanting to abolish or change it. If you just took the time to read it, you'd realize the context of the discussion you're trying to have.

A new Congressional election is held every two years. We just witnessed an election where the Senate went from a majority from the Democrat Party to a majority from the Republican Party. So never say "never" when it comes to Congress. Look what recently happened with analog television. If anyone would have said before the law was passed to switch from analog to digital TV, "Congress will never pass a law that makes all of the TV sets in the country obsolete", most folks would have agreed with that. The same goes with the switch from analog cell phones to digital cell phones.

It doesn't matter what an old law says. If Congress decides to change things, then things get changed. Consider that the next time you try to buy leaded gasoline for an old muscle car.

The only accurate statement that can be made about any laws is that you can never say that any law will never be changed.

The point being made, I believe, is that the primary EAS stations tend to be the big signal AMs when those exist in a market. To trigger an all-station EAS alert, the primary station has to originate the alert. In fact, even if nobody is listening to the primary station, the alert on its signal causes all other stations to relay the message. And that is where the AMs come in.

So, when the law is changed, it will have to include making a change in the system. Big deal!

At one time, all emergency broadcasts had to be on Conelrad frequencies. How did that manage to get changed if such things are impossible to change?

The argument seems to be: Keep AM alive for EMS. Heck of a business model.

I get alerts on my smartphone. Who needs EMS? Besides, ESM only works if you're listening to radio at the time. My smartphone starts making funny noises and I can read the message.

OK, keep AM alive for illiterates with no mobile devices (impoverished or troglodytes). Also a heck of a business model. Keep an obsolete technology going supported by advertising for the most sales resistant.

Stopped at the spirits shoppe to get some wine for Christmas. The store used to be a Blockbuster. VCRs and VCR rental: Even deader than AM radio. Both industries from National Amusements.

Excellent point! Once again, a newer technology is available to replace an older one.

 

[Kelly A]

Based on even recent events, broadcasting, radio in particular, is the default source of news and information during crisis events. I'll guarantee that if only an AM station is left standing, even Millennial's will seek it out. Then when infrastructure is restored, they'll go back to consuming media their preferred way. Is that a reason to keep an AM station going? Certainly not, that model would be unsustainable from a business perspective. Other than Amber and NWS weather alerts in tornado-prone areas, EAS hasn't been shown to be ready for prime time in any case.

Just look at the recent earthquake in the Napa Valley area. Much of the cell and land line infrastructure was knocked out due to a catastrophic failure at a local AT&T Central Office. Radio yet again became one of the few sources of news and information. SMS alerts via cell phones are useless when the cell system is off line. And cell sites are the first thing that go down during inclement weather or natural/man-made disasters.

 

[Avid Listener]

Based on even recent events, broadcasting, radio in particular, is the default source of news and information during crisis events. I'll guarantee that if only an AM station is left standing, even Millennial's will seek it out. Then when infrastructure is restored, they'll go back to consuming media their preferred way. Is that a reason to keep an AM station going? Certainly not, that model would be unsustainable from a business perspective. Other than Amber and NWS weather alerts in tornado-prone areas, EAS hasn't been shown to be ready for prime time in any case.

Just look at the recent earthquake in the Napa Valley area. Much of the cell and land line infrastructure was knocked out due to a catastrophic failure at a local AT&T Central Office. Radio yet again became one of the few sources of news and information. SMS alerts via cell phones are useless when the cell system is off line. And cell sites are the first thing that go down during inclement weather or natural/man-made disasters.

Alerts are also useless if the links from studios to transmitters are phone lines, and the phone lines are down. Just how many of the AM stations that are the foundation of the emergency system are located at their transmitter sites?

 

[MickeyD]

I wonder what they will use the AM band for when the stations clear out? It would make a nice ham band.

 

[Avid Listener]

There seems to be a major disconnect in understanding regarding this thread. It is about the AM broadcasting band being in a state of "dying", as in "It's on a path to eventual death, but it's not there yet." Those of us who recognize that fact (even when we also acknowledge that "dead" is hyperbole, and it's really more an issue of shrinking down to irrelevancy) are speaking about interpreting trends, and extrapolating what is likely to be the situation in the future, based on comparing the past to the present and making reasonable conclusions about what is in store in the next 10 to 20 years.

Those who defend the AM broadcast band seem to be limited to only pointing out where AM radio is right now. They ignore trends. They pretend change doesn't exist. We even have a witless admonishment on the table to ask our Congressman to change the law in 2015 when we're talking about actions that are likely to take place in 2025 or later.

The simple truth is that the AM broadcast band is fading away. A few minor ideas have been bandied about as possible salvations to restore the AM band to usefulness, but none of them seem to ring true. The existing AM broadcast infrastructure will remain in place as long as it continues to work, and as long as broadcasters can milk the last dregs of value from the equipment.

Gradually, more and more listeners who prefer the programming on AM will grow old and die. More and more replacement technologies will surpass AM radio's capabilities. And an increasing number of AM stations will go dark, until a tipping point is reached. I'm guess that will be in ten years. Other people might put their money on five years, or fifteen, or twenty. Immigrant communities who want news and entertainment from the old country will get it direct from the old country on the internet, and foreign language broadcasts will be as irrelevant as English language broadcasts. Ask yourself, if you're an immigrant from Italy, and you want to hear Italian language news and entertainment, will you choose a static-filled AM broadcast on a tiny little day-time station with no budget, or would you choose streaming content from professional radio stations from Rome or Naples?

There are a lot of people who like to whine about how this thread, or any thread, goes "off-topic". The thing is, every time someone brings up some "right now" reason why AM still has a present and then tries to claim that present means it also has a future, then that reason will be discussed. And the usual suspects will continue to talk about the present of AM radio as if the present will continue into the future unchanged, and those of us who recognize that nothing lasts forever, and that change is inevitable will continue to point out why the present is just a point on a timeline that is changing as it progresses.

To those who whine about this thread going off-topic, how about presenting some rational arguments as to why the present will proceed into the future unchanged.

 

[davideduardo]

Alerts are also useless if the links from studios to transmitters are phone lines, and the phone lines are down. Just how many of the AM stations that are the foundation of the emergency system are located at their transmitter sites?

The primary stations are much more likely to have an OTA link than smaller local stations... although phone company loops have been for the most part eliminated by newer technologies.

If there is a disaster big enough to bring down phones, it's likely to have brought down other essential parts of the infrastructure stations depend on, too.

I think that it is an exaggeration to say that the foundation of EAS consists of AM stations. In many markets, the primary station is FM, based on greater coverage and.

A station I was responsible for in Tallahassee... a Class C FM which was the EBS primary... had a hardened underground facility paid for by the gummint. If there was a major incident, and someone could get to the transmitter, it could run several days with the fuel and supplies on hand.

But all this misses the point. The EAS exists primarily to warn about dangers and impending disasters in advance. And to transmit Amber Alerts. If the phones and infrastructure are down in an area, the event already occurred. Past tense. The "A" in EAS stands for "Alert", not "news coverage".

That's why we do not get EAS activations for earthquakes and even for 9/11... the event already happened and there is no "Alert" requirement.

 

[davideduardo]

The simple truth is that the AM broadcast band is fading away.

If you want to establish a timeline, AM began its very slow decline starting on January 1 of 1967. So it has been 47 years of decline at a rate of loss of about 1.5% of total listening per year.

 

[K.M. Richards]

Since the poster was talking about the EAS system, I got the feeling that he was referring to a major snafu, with the EAS system on November 9, 2011. I looked it up and sure enough, there was a national EAS test on that day.

Thanks for reminding me of that debacle. I had managed to clear it from my memory. Now I have to purge it again.

 

[Avid Listener]

If you want to establish a timeline, AM began its very slow decline starting on January 1 of 1967. So it has been 47 years of decline at a rate of loss of about 1.5% of total listening per year.

You overlook the fact that the rate of decline has started to accelerate. It has not been flat at 1.5% a year. And, as the rate at which older listeners die accelerates, which any actuary can confirm is inevitable, the rate of AM radio's decline will accelerate even faster.

 

[FredLeonard]

I am reminded of a science fiction story by Robert Heinlein. A group of insurgents stage a successful revolt on an off-world mining colony using AM radio to communicate. It has been mostly forgotten and devices then in use couldn't receive it (or even know it was there).

 

[TheBigA]

It doesn't matter what an old law says. If Congress decides to change things, then things get changed.

About the only way for this to change is for Congress to decide it wants to throw out everything except the Constitution and start over. Why? Because the EAS rules are embedded in multiple laws, covering multiple agencies. For example, oversight of EAS is in the Department of Homeland Security. So they need to examine that set of rules. That's a political hot potato, so not very likely to be opened. Therefore, while it's possible, just as anything is possible, it's extremely unlikely.

It's nice to be so optimistic and idealistic that Congress will simply change the laws. But the founding fathers made the process very difficult. That's why very little has changed so far. Numerous FCC Commissioners have talked about various changes over the years. None of them have come to pass. If change was as easy as you think, this would have been dealt with 40 years ago. But first, they have to establish that there is a problem. Then they have to convene a committee. Then they have to take public comments. Then they have to discuss and resolve the issues in the public comments. And then someone in Congress needs to propose changes in the law or a new law. They need to get other members to sign on with them. Write the legislation. That process alone can take years. Then discuss the legislation, vote, and send it to the President. So we'll see. But in my experience, getting laws changed isn't easy. Especially when you have no idea what the current laws say.

You overlook the fact that the rate of decline has started to accelerate. It has not been flat at 1.5% a year. And, as the rate at which older listeners die accelerates, which any actuary can confirm is inevitable, the rate of AM radio's decline will accelerate even faster.

You're assuming only old people listen to AM. That's absolutely not true. The #1 station in San Francisco is an AM station. It has the rights to the San Francisco Giants. If the people want to hear their favorite baseball team on the radio, they must listen to an AM station. And they do. And a lot of them are young people. So while there has been decline in AM listening, it's not geographically uniform, and there are lots of exceptions that hurt your theory that as older listeners die, the rate of AM's decline will accelerate faster.

 

[davideduardo]

You overlook the fact that the rate of decline has started to accelerate. It has not been flat at 1.5% a year. And, as the rate at which older listeners die accelerates, which any actuary can confirm is inevitable, the rate of AM radio's decline will accelerate even faster.

The opposite is true. Between 1967 and 1977, AM lost 50% of its 12+ share. The next decade took just under 20%, bringing FM up to nearly 70% of listening by 1987.

Today's AM share is in the 18% range, and it has been relatively stable around there for the last 15 years.

Big A already mentioned that there are quite a few AMs that do well in 25-54, and many more that are very big in 55-64. With today's life expectancy, it will take the time of an entire generation for them to "die off". By that time, OTA radio will likely have ceased to be relevant, AM or FM, and we will be using what today we call smartphones for all our entertainment.

 

[Avid Listener]

Sure they do. And they've all had huge staffs for 40 years. How much action have they taken?

No action has been needed, yet. The time for action is in the future. When action is needed, then it will be taken.

Duh!