Effect of PPM rating system in Houston?

[ericspin]

I was just wondering if there has been any effect on Houston radio stations because of Arbitron's new PPM rating system. There's been a lot of talk nationally about how Urban and Latin stations are fairing poorly under the new system (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/12/business/media/12radio.html?ref=business).

I saw the 12+ ratings for Houston a while back and noticed the same thing. However, I can't find those ratings anymore -- does anyone know what the latest 12+ is under PPM and if it's effected the ad revenue or shifted any station's format?

 

[its time w (your name)]

I was just wondering if there has been any effect on Houston radio stations because of Arbitron's new PPM rating system. There's been a lot of talk nationally about how Urban and Latin stations are fairing poorly under the new system (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/12/business/media/12radio.html?ref=business).

I saw the 12+ ratings for Houston a while back and noticed the same thing. However, I can't find those ratings anymore -- does anyone know what the latest 12+ is under PPM and if it's effected the ad revenue or shifted any station's format?

ooooh. PPM! It invented sliced bread. It's gonna save us. PPM is our friend. We must bow down to PPM.

Within 2 months some radio big shots are gonna be reeeeaaaal disappointed in their "savior." Then they'll start saying the PPM was defective or was adminstered wrongly somehow. The only thing PPM is gonna change is that it will more clearly show terrestrial radio indeed twisting in the wind as it dies a painful death. They can only play the shell game with numbers so long. This will actually be good for all of us.

 

[davideduardo]

Within 2 months some radio big shots are gonna be reeeeaaaal disappointed in their "savior." Then they'll start saying the PPM was defective or was adminstered wrongly somehow. The only thing PPM is gonna change is that it will more clearly show terrestrial radio indeed twisting in the wind as it dies a painful death. They can only play the shell game with numbers so long. This will actually be good for all of us.

Remember two things...

The PPM has been running for 30 months in Houston, so the "news" is not so new. It has only been "currency," which means in general release, for a couple of months, but we have been getting data since mid-2005.

Second, the PPM was asked for by the agencies and major advertisers, not radio. Radio gets to pay 60% more, and nobody wanted extra expenses. But ratings are a sales tool, and Arbitron marketed skillfully with the agencies on this. Keep in mind that Arbitron overcame Pulse, Hooper and later competitors by being the choice for ad buying... nobody pays for ratings that are not usefull in selling.

 

[ericspin]

Thanks for the feedback, David.

Another question I have -- do you all think that the PPM is more accurate? I don't think either system is totally accurate, but the PPM has to be more accurate than the diary. It reflects what station people are hearing, not what they wish they were listening to. Just my opinion.

If you had a "big brother" like system that actually recorded the signal from each radio that was on, I think everyone would be even more surprised with the results.

 

[HoustonListener]

The PPM system does capture what people are HEARING but not what they are LISTENING to... and there is a big difference. background noise in an office or in a restaurant, etc. the people might not be paying any attention and any commercials would have no impact if the background noise is turned out.

Although the diaries certainly are flawed too, subject to human error and recall and not timely filling them out.

But I understand that one of the biggest problems with the PPM is getting enough people to use them to get representative demographic samples to be able to interpolate the PPM results to show that it really represents what stations the community as a whole listens.
How representative are the PPM samples? I don't know the answer to that, but I know that is a concern.

 

[easy money]

male stations seem to perform better than female stations and am stations fall off the face of the earth. i've always thought am stations received more credit than they deserved.

the methodolgy is absolutely more accurate, but not without it problems.

 

[its time w (your name)]

Within 2 months some radio big shots are gonna be reeeeaaaal disappointed in their "savior." Then they'll start saying the PPM was defective or was adminstered wrongly somehow. The only thing PPM is gonna change is that it will more clearly show terrestrial radio indeed twisting in the wind as it dies a painful death. They can only play the shell game with numbers so long. This will actually be good for all of us.

Remember two things...

The PPM has been running for 30 months in Houston, so the "news" is not so new. It has only been "currency," which means in general release, for a couple of months, but we have been getting data since mid-2005.

Second, the PPM was asked for by the agencies and major advertisers, not radio. Radio gets to pay 60% more, and nobody wanted extra expenses. But ratings are a sales tool, and Arbitron marketed skillfully with the agencies on this. Keep in mind that Arbitron overcame Pulse, Hooper and later competitors by being the choice for ad buying... nobody pays for ratings that are not usefull in selling.

Thats all good, but as someone who's inside a building and hears the rumblings of the suits... Remember the look on Geraldo's face when they opened "Capone's vault?" Right now, they look like Jim Jones followers, just before the big kool-aid party. Write this one down in your book and you can laugh at me, if I'm wrong, and no, I cant explain how it falls so fast, other than just the general suckage of the product. Actually, I could, but I'm busy.

 

[upstate29651]

male stations seem to perform better than female stations and am stations fall off the face of the earth. i've always thought am stations received more credit than they deserved.

the methodolgy is absolutely more accurate, but not without it problems.

I've always had the same thought (male stations vs. female stations). In my experience, females tend to be "flippers", as in, if a song comes on that they don't particularly care of, or if commercials are on, they're changing stations. Men seem to be able to "tough it out" if they don't care for a song, and seem to be ok with waiting through a commercial break. However, I don't share your opinion on AM, except in rare cases.

G

 

[InTIMadate]

What if it was more about the process? What if the methods are horribly flawed?

Diaries were good at recording female listening habits, but try to get a good-old, beer drinkin' Texas boy to fill out something called a "diary." Any guesses why Arbitron had such a hard time with finding men 18-34 to tabulate? Anyone surprised that the "men" they did find enjoyed and savored the sappy, wimpy AC format so much? Bet they watch American Idol and dream of spending a night with Ryan too.

So, now Arbitron introduces this snazzy, jet black plastic piece of electronic technology that clips on a belt like a cell phone, beeper, gun, knife or tape measure. Real men love it. Strange though, women don't wear belts every day and usually accessorize their purse, jewelry, scarf’s and stuff with colors to match their outfits. Anybody shocked that Arbitron's having a problem getting women to carry them every day?

Amazingly rock radio has a comeback!
Guess what, Urban and Spanish language listeners don't really listen 13 hours a day!

Flawed, junk research.

Please, radio leaders, make them bleed and cry for their money.
I want to see more job cuts at Arbitron next month than we're feeling in radio.
I want to see their stock at $4.16.

 

[stan]

Wouldn't it be funny if all these formats that have sprung up recently (the new KLOL, for example) are really not doing as well as advertised and we would return to the good old days with 3 or 4 rock stations to choose from.

Some of these stations are greatly overrated, anyway.

 

[davideduardo]

Wouldn't it be funny if all these formats that have sprung up recently (the new KLOL, for example) are really not doing as well as advertised and we would return to the good old days with 3 or 4 rock stations to choose from.

KLOL is doing exceedingly well.

 

[davideduardo]

Guess what, Urban and Spanish language listeners don't really listen 13 hours a day!

Guess what? In the Last diary survey, the total 12+ shares for Spanish language radio were 19.5. In the most recent PPM report (there are 65 a year) the total Spanish language station share was 19.9.

I want to see more job cuts at Arbitron next month than we're feeling in radio.

They have added over 1000 jobs in the last year, but reduced the software development staff by 60... because the work is being contracted out. That sounds like growth to me.

 

[JMartin1970]

David any thougths on why KLOL is doing so well in PPM? How different is the new format versus old format? How does it compare with formats like Super Estrella and others? Do you expect CC to adopt this format in other markets?

 

[davideduardo]

David any thougths on why KLOL is doing so well in PPM? How different is the new format versus old format? How does it compare with formats like Super Estrella and others? Do you expect CC to adopt this format in other markets?

Totally personal opinion, but KLOL does well because of the fact that there is no proportionality by age and sex cells for Hispanics, Spanish Dominant Hispanics and English dominant Hispanics. Thus, the low hanging fruit for Arbitron is not the core Spanish dominant who is less acculturated; a pop listener and the family they are in is going to be easier to recruit and thus form more of the panel.

KLOL, in January, started transitioning from a Hurban format, with a strong reggaetón and hip hop base with lots of English announcing to a more Spanish pop format with, as of about 5 weeks ago, no English songs by non-Hispanic artists and very little reggaetón. Interestingly, the best numbers they have had in 2007 were January, before the change was implemented.

KLOL is much more rhythmic than Súperestrella, with things like Aventura (pop bachata) and salsa in the blend, while SE is a little closer to a Hot AC with many crossover core Mexican artists and a bit of the "regional ballad" feel to it.

 

[walter1]

Broadcasters across the country are calling for Arbitron to meet the sample size for ethnic audiences, that seems to be the greatest shortfall of the ppm's. And it is an absolute upgrade from the diaries, yes it has kinks but they can be fixed. The diary system was insane for the times we live in. The Media Audit is rolling out a system that will use cell phones, although Arbitron is sueing them.
Any advertiser/agency should welcome research that gives them more accurate data. PPM does not rely on recall, tells you exactly what stations were listened too, how long etc. A huge jump up from the diaries, only disgruntled programmers are getting their panties in a wad over the PPM's, JMO.

 

[davideduardo]

Broadcasters across the country are calling for Arbitron to meet the sample size for ethnic audiences, that seems to be the greatest shortfall of the ppm's.

That is only a small part of the issue. Arbitron is only guaranteeing proportionality on the total sample, but there is no ethnic proportionality in the individual cells of age, sex and language preference (for Hispanics) and there is zero geographic proportionality on these subsets, either.

The problems are multiple. Reaching a DDI goal without the sample being proportional in every one of the stratification variables is no better than having a smaller sample.

And it is an absolute upgrade from the diaries, yes it has kinks but they can be fixed.

It takes Arbitron a long time to fix things: four years to implement language weighting, for example.

The Media Audit is rolling out a system that will use cell phones,

They are not rolling out anything. In fact, the encoding on the Houston test stations so badly distorted the audio that nobody kept it on the air for more than a few hours, I am told.
although Arbitron is sueing them.

PPM does not rely on recall, tells you exactly what stations were listened too, how long etc. A huge jump up from the diaries, only disgruntled programmers are getting their panties in a wad over the PPM's, JMO.

No, but it relies on the behaviour of people who will carry a meter around for up to two years. It is very hard to find a family that will agree to do that... would you? And that makes me quesiton whether meter carriers are representative of the universe.

 

[walter1]

Broadcasters across the country are calling for Arbitron to meet the sample size for ethnic audiences, that seems to be the greatest shortfall of the ppm's.

That is only a small part of the issue. Arbitron is only guaranteeing proportionality on the total sample, but there is no ethnic proportionality in the individual cells of age, sex and language preference (for Hispanics) and there is zero geographic proportionality on these subsets, either.

The problems are multiple. Reaching a DDI goal without the sample being proportional in every one of the stratification variables is no better than having a smaller sample.

And it is an absolute upgrade from the diaries, yes it has kinks but they can be fixed.

It takes Arbitron a long time to fix things: four years to implement language weighting, for example.

The Media Audit is rolling out a system that will use cell phones,

They are not rolling out anything. In fact, the encoding on the Houston test stations so badly distorted the audio that nobody kept it on the air for more than a few hours, I am told.
although Arbitron is sueing them.

PPM does not rely on recall, tells you exactly what stations were listened too, how long etc. A huge jump up from the diaries, only disgruntled programmers are getting their panties in a wad over the PPM's, JMO.

No, but it relies on the behaviour of people who will carry a meter around for up to two years. It is very hard to find a family that will agree to do that... would you? And that makes me quesiton whether meter carriers are representative of the universe.

So you prefer the diaries? No sane person would even suggest that.

 

[davideduardo]

So you prefer the diaries? No sane person would even suggest that.

No, I am pointing out an issue that affects the PPM sample, which as we know is significantly defective right now.

I would rather have a good diary sample vs. a bad (50% or 60% of quotas) metered sample.

 

[walter1]

So you prefer the diaries? No sane person would even suggest that.

No, I am pointing out an issue that affects the PPM sample, which as we know is significantly defective right now.

I would rather have a good diary sample vs. a bad (50% or 60% of quotas) metered sample.

I don't believe there was ever such a thing as a good diary sample, at least not in the last 20 years. Flaws in the PPM? A quantum leap over diaries? YES! No question about it warts and all.

 

[Knowitol]

No ratings system is going to be perfect. No matter what the methodology, someone is going to cry foul. PPM is at least measuring what you're listening to or exposed to, so I would think that makes radio people happier than the diary.