Entercom Dilemma

[Element9]

WBEN has had a ratings and billing grip on the market for quite some time, but sooner or later Entercom will have to make a decision about the future of Buffalo’s only commercial news-talk AM radio station. Recent 12+ trends (as unreliable as they may be) indicate WBEN is beginning to slip. But those with access to the complete rating book say WBEN, although strong, is losing audience shares at a consistent rate to 97 Rock, The Edge and WYRK.

How long it will be before the Entercom decision makers decide to simulcast WBEN programming on FM? The question remains: What frequency? Entercom owns only three FM frequencies in Buffalo. Kiss and Star are immensely successful. There’s no way Entercom would disrupt those two FM cash cows. The Lake, on the other hand, remains flat. Could WBEN find its way to 107.7 in a simulcast situation?

What then would become of WGR? Would the sports station be left to wilt on the AM vine? Or does WGR programming move to FM, as is the case with so many sports stations, particularly Entercom’s sports franchise in Boston, leaving WBEN to go quietly into that good night that awaits AM radio.

The move to FM may be moot if Wi-Max makes an impact. If Wi-Max becomes a reality, AM could be a memory by 2015, with only the strong signaled 50 gallon major market AMs surviving. Consider how much healthier the broadcasting business was in 2005 and the downturn it’s taken in the last two years. 2015 is by no means the distant future.

 

[SirRoxalot]

In my mind, it's a question of when does "The Lake" end up splitting the difference - simulcast WBEN during the daytime, and simulcast WGR at night - especially during the Sabres season.

Greg, don't forget to send the consulting fee.

 

[Bourbon Street Cajun]

Who needs facts when Rumour Mongering is all the rage..?

"You've got opinions and judgements about all kinds of things
That you don't know anything about..."

-- VAN MORRISON "Ivory Tower"

 

[SirRoxalot]

No "rumor mongering", merely speculation. You got pertinent facts? Let's hear 'em.

 

[Bob1370]

It's not a matter of putting the AM programming schedule on FM. There's no FM signal in the Entercom portfolio except Star 102.5 that will give WBEN better reach for its programming, and as long as both stations are profitable, killing Star to put WBEN on FM would be nuts.

The signal is not the problem, its location in the middle of the AM band is not the problem. The signal is a full market signal and believe it or not, everyone still knows how to flip to the AM band whenever there's something they want or need to hear, and will make that switch if there's something to listen to. You just have to persuade them to flip the switch and hit the 930 pre-set.

The real problem is, has WBEN recalibrated its programming appeal for today's 25-54s, to make that persuasion possible?

This is the same situation we found ourselves in when Algonquin took over WBEN in 1978...a superficially healthy-looking 12+ hiding real weakness in prime demos.

What we did then was to rebuild the personality lineup and expand and energize the news operation (which became a 24/7 service). That worked spectacularly, making the station king of the listener demos born between 1925 and 1955. WBEN's still tops with those demos today...trouble is, those 25-54s of 30 years ago are now 55 to 84, and there's not enough younger listenership coming in behind them. Hasn't been for a long time. It's going to take new personalities with new ideas to bring new listeners into the tent. They're not going to get them by using national programming, since there hasn't been one credible star personality put up on the satellite in more than a decade, and the ones out there now don't speak to all the under-55 folks (most of whom voted for President Obama), they insult them instead. (Don't mention Glenn Beck, he's become Stephen Colbert's running joke for his manic shtick and he's radioactive for both national and local advertisers--just ask Fox News how they're doing selling him these days.)

There's also a little-discussed challenge ahead on the local programming front. Their strongest daypart, morning drive, may soon need a makeover, since John Zach is surely close to 70 and Entercom has to start preparing for the day, probably not far in the future, when he opts to retire. If he goes, that'll be a big blow. If they lose him anytime soon, I'd almost suggest they start remaking the station by bringing in a younger team like Shredd and Ragan to do mornings, and build on that...like we had Jeff Kaye to replace the retiring Clint Buehlman (25 years Jeff's senior) in the late 1970s. They should also bring back Ron Dobson, and start thinking about a locally based replacement for the overpriced, overstuffed Rush Limbaugh (whose carriage fees are probably a lot higher than the salary and benefits they'd pay a local host who'd draw just as good numbers and probably bill better local ad $$$).

Other dayparts don't need a reboot. Sandy certainly has the energy and appeal to keep going indefinitely, as long as he wants (he may be in his 60s but projects the same energy he did in 1968)--and Bauerle, well, he's an acquired taste, but I guess a good number of people have acquired it, so what can you say?

The veterans can be an important part of a renewed WBEN, they just need counterpoint from some bright and energetic new voices to kickstart things. That approach worked before to re-boot WBEN for a generation of success, and it can work again. But they shouldn't waste any time in starting it.

 

[Element9]

The clock's ticking on WBEN. Double digit 12+ can be deceptive and even those double digits may be slipping away. Take a look at what happened in St. Louis, a market where the PPM ratings took KMOX from double digit 12+ dominance to second place behind The Arch, an FM Classic Hits station.

Sooner or later, WBEN programming will have to have to move to FM in order to survive because AM radio is going get hammered by the Portable People Meter. As to the suggestion that WBEN pick up Shredd & Ragan to "freshen up the demo?" Amusing, if not preposterous. S&R on WBEN would kill WGR, which targets Men 25-49. The strength of S&R on The Edge is a formidable challenge to WBEN and WGR. S&R attract a substantial number of Men 25-44's by talking about everything from the Bills and Sabres to politics, great parody bits, a regular cast of phone callers, aided and abetted by a stripper or rock artist and group every once in a while. Besides, S&R detest Tom Baurle and for years have made him the butt of their jokes and bits.

WBEN is a fine radio station in many ways. It makes mounds of money. Compared to anything else that's offered by commercial radio stations the WBEN news department, stretched as thinly as it is, performs admirably largely because of the reporting skills of street reporters like Barbara Burns.

Not to take away some posters' fond memories of WBEN, but WGR held a firm grip on 25-49s in the late 70s and early 80s with a youthful AM AC music format featuring great jingles, strong promotions and contests like perpetual Hi-Lo, plus personalities like Stan Roberts, Larry Anderson, Frank Benny and Shane. WGR was the home of the Sabres in their glory years of the French Connection. WGR also had an outstanding news department staffed by Sheila Murphy, Don Dusias, Ray Marks, LB Lyon and many others.

WBEN was the "old line" station. Larry Levitt and Bob Wood did a good job contemporizing the sound of the station, but especially when compared to WGR and WKBW, WBEN was sounded old. When Clint Buehlman lost it in the Blizzard of 77 saying things like, "I wish you people would stop calling!" the die was cast. This isn't said in a pejorative tone. But at the time the stations that sounded young and hip were Rock 102, Q-FM-97/97 Rock, WYSL-FM/WPHD, WBUF as a rocker and later a successful full service AC format with strong personalities.

 

[Mike Sheridan]

I will never forget coming to Buffalo in the late '70's and hearing Danny in the morning playing Heart's "Magic Man" on KB. Somehow it didn't seem right KB was starting to get old at that point, the song didn't fit.

I have said it before KB was my station in the '60's but WGR would have been the station I listened to in the '70's. Two amazing AM's.

Because of WBEN, WGR and WKBW strong good sounding stations, Buffalo didn't get into FM till much later when compared to the rest of the country.

 

[Steven21]

The clock's ticking on WBEN. Double digit 12+ can be deceptive and even those double digits may be slipping away. Take a look at what happened in St. Louis, a market where the PPM ratings took KMOX from double digit 12+ dominance to second place behind The Arch, an FM Classic Hits station.

Radio is more reactive than proactive.

Most heritage stations will have to be decimated before they consider the right moves for the future.

 

[superset weekend]

You folks are looking and speculating way to much. WBEN is tops, by far, in all of their core demos. I think that AM radio's demise in 5 years is a little premature. I really do not think AM and FM radio are going to be that far seperated by demise dates, but it will not be in 5 years. Radio will evolve, but this time, without towers.

Also, i do not know where all the speculators on here get their radio billing numbers, but i am here to tell you that they are wrong. You are calling certain stations "cash cows" and other stations "flat". Simply not the case.

 

[yugoidar]

You folks are looking and speculating way to much. WBEN is tops, by far, in all of their core demos.

So, Buddy – help us out!  Fill us in!  What exactly are WBEN’s “core demos” these days?  What is the margin over the second place station in each of the “core demos”?    How do these margins look against the ratings of, say, a year ago?

 

[superset weekend]

The ratings margins in CORE demos against a year ago are flat, sometimes down a little, sometimes up a little. Arbitron is not an exact science, it is an estimate. Ratings really drive only National business, and national business will never recover fully for any radio station at this point. Ratings do not drive local agency and direct business, or maybe a VERY little. That is our lifeblood, and that is based on relationships, gut instinct, and results for the client.

Back to the demos we are taking about, i am not about the extract ever core demo of every radio station for the benefit of this conversation. Trust me, BEN does great in it's core demo.

 

[Steven21]

Back to the demos we are taking about, i am not about the extract ever core demo of every radio station for the benefit of this conversation. Trust me, BEN does great in it's core demo.

Core demo being.............

67 year-old angry white men?

 

[yugoidar]

Back to the demos we are taking about, i am not about the extract ever core demo of every radio station for the benefit of this conversation. Trust me, BEN does great in it's core demo.

So, Buddy...what's BEN's CORE demo these days?  You shouldn't have to work too hard and it shouldn't take too much of your time to give us that answer.

 

[superset weekend]

Adults 35-64. Go do your Arbitron research and let me know how it's turns out. Also, please refrain from the personal references, unless you would like to provide your personal email.

 

[Element9]

Supe makes some valid points about WBEN demos, even though he gets a tad touchy about things some of us know to be true. Fair enough. Steven21, in his sarcasm, hits the nail squarely as well. Between the two divergent opinions, there is validity and reason for WBEN to be concerned.

Adults 35-64 and Adults 25-54 are broad and increasingly vague parameters for any station or product target. Rarely is a station successful in the full breadth of the demo. It happens, most notably with WYRK, which has shown strength across the board in many survey periods. But even WYRK has its pockets of strength, as does WBEN. This is where 21's point obout "angry 67 year olds" rings especially true.

Sales is the fine art of combining "How to win friends and infleunce people" + "How to craft proposals based on ratings points and share" = "To convince the client that he/she needs to buy your product to sell his/her product." Supe's good at this. Even though he needs to shine his shoes more frequently and have his pants tailored with a better break at the instep of the foot, he can sell.

WBEN, like so many music radio stations, is facing competition delivering and defining its product to the needs of an ever-changing and aging audience. And it needs to bring in new, younger listeners (defined as 35-44s) who at this juncture, don't get excited about El Rushbo, the local angry white guys and the type of news WBEN delivers. If you think there's a distinct disparity between a 25 year old and a 54 year old, there's an equal disparity between a 35 year old and 64 year old. It's getting more and more difficult to breach the gap.

In one way, this is good for WBEN. In another, it comes back to bite them in the assets. The station may in fact be #1 with the angry-white-right demo which it can sell now. The problem is, can it sell that demo in five years. How soon will that particular demo fade into an unwanted upper demo that, as we hear about so many music stations, is unwanted by buyers or clients. Is this conventional wisdom about "older demos" correct, especially as Supe defines the art of selling WBEN, by building relationships with clients and customers. No, it's not correct as long as the clients stay in business and delegate a portion of their budget to radio, WBEN in particular. It' is correct if WBEN can't bring in new, younger listeners.

But WBEN isn't the only station that puts up strong Adult 35-64 numbers. The competition comes mostly from other FM stations. This is one reason why Entercom faces a dilemma and the clock is ticking. In order to protect the WBEN revenue stream, Entercom will have to consider putting WBEN's programming on FM. This isn't earth-shaking news. The company has done this quite successfully in Boston.

Despite what Bourbon posts, there's really only one option as to what FM frequency Entercom mights elect to protect and prolong the WBEN revenue stream and it happens to be a frequency whose revenue stream isn't even close to that of WBEN. The decision to move WBEN to FM will become even more pronounced when Arbitron introduces PPM to this market, at last word, 2011. So there's still time to make the transition, but as GM and Chrysler have shown us, a company shouldn't wait to the last minute to modify and improve its product to reach the needs of its customers if it hopes to stay alive and thrive.

 

[fybush]

But WBEN isn't the only station that puts up strong Adult 35-64 numbers. The competition comes mostly from other FM stations. This is one reason why Entercom faces a dilemma and the clock is ticking. In order to protect the WBEN revenue stream, Entercom will have to consider putting WBEN's programming on FM. This isn't earth-shaking news. The company has done this quite successfully in Boston.

It has? That's news to me.

Perhaps you're thinking of Greater Media, whose FM talker, WTKK 96.9, is just now marking its tenth anniversary, a decade in which it's seriously eroded the once-dominant talk format of Entercom's WRKO 680. Or perhaps it's CBS you have in mind - they just launched an FM sports outlet, WBZ-FM 98.5 ("The Sports Hub"), that's threatening to do some serious damage to Entercom's WEEI 850.

If anything, Entercom has an even less pleasant choice to make in Boston: it has just two FM formats, one of which is simulcast on two signals to achieve full-market coverage, and the loss of revenue by replacing either of those with WEEI or WRKO programming would be quite substantial.

Despite what Bourbon posts, there's really only one option as to what FM frequency Entercom mights elect to protect and prolong the WBEN revenue stream and it happens to be a frequency whose revenue stream isn't even close to that of WBEN. The decision to move WBEN to FM will become even more pronounced when Arbitron introduces PPM to this market, at last word, 2011. So there's still time to make the transition, but as GM and Chrysler have shown us, a company shouldn't wait to the last minute to modify and improve its product to reach the needs of its customers if it hopes to stay alive and thrive.

Nor should it over-react to a threat that may or may not be present. Whichever predecessor of Entercom brought WGR, WBEN and KB under one roof (was it Keymarket at that point?) made a brilliant strategic move, locking up every viable commercial AM signal in town and pre-empting any possibility of AM competition to the dual cash cows of WGR and WBEN.

Thus far, there's been only one serious FM threat to either station, and WNSA was done in not only by the Rigas collapse but by a signal ill-suited to its intended purpose. That signal has been maximized to within an inch of its life, and I don't see it being any more suitable as a WBEN-FM or a WGR-FM than it was as WNSA.

From where I sit, I don't see much likelihood of another FM talk or sports competitor to WBEN or WGR in the near future, either. Citadel has neither the cash nor an available signal to flip, and Regent doesn't appear to have the resources, either. It seems to me that absent an FM threat like the one it faces in Boston, Entercom is in the enviable position of being able to continue to keep Buffalo's news-talk-sports audience on the AM dial, and even to draw younger listeners (relatively speaking) over to AM on the strength of quality programming, if it wants to.

(And, realistically, this is Buffalo we're talking about - it's an aging town without much overall population growth at the younger end of 25-54 or even 35-64.)

 

[Mike Sheridan]

I see the next trend assaulting the FM band to be FM translators for AM stations. Where I live an AM station has a translator on the same tower as the AM station and the coverage is pretty much the same, so I don't see the point (it was originally put on for their rimshot FM signal). Except now the AM station has an FM voice.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Not to worry. IBOC will provide a solution to this whole issue. (BWAH-HA-HA-HA-HA).

 

[Steven21]

and even to draw younger listeners (relatively speaking) over to AM on the strength of quality programming, if it wants to.

In this day and age, given all available audio sources, drawing younger listeners over to AM--with "quality"rogramming no less, would be a pretty neat trick.

 

[fybush]

and even to draw younger listeners (relatively speaking) over to AM on the strength of quality programming, if it wants to.

In this day and age, given all available audio sources, drawing younger listeners over to AM--with "quality"rogramming no less, would be a pretty neat trick.

Give them what they're looking for, content-wise, and they'll find it...yes, even on an AM. There are plenty of young(er) listeners tuned in to WEEI in Boston or WFAN in NYC, whether on the main AM signals or via streaming.

I suspect WGR has a somewhat easier task here than WBEN.