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Fall Ratings Book Observations

Looks like Warm won the battle of the Christmas stations over Mix this year. 1360 WSAI had a pretty good book which I imagine is due in most part to the success of the Bengals. B105 is definitely on a roll. Will WEBN ever regain it's previous ratings? Mojo and WGRR were both down. Bad book for oldies? Your thoughts?
 
WVMX and WYGY each jumped a share (or more). Kiss dropped a bit. Anyone notice that 6th place through 12th place are all within .5 a share of each other...?
 
> WVMX and WYGY each jumped a share (or more). Kiss dropped a
> bit. Anyone notice that 6th place through 12th place are
> all within .5 a share of each other...?
>


Results bear a look at the following:

1. Is the jump an anamoly? Probably so...and if so, will Cumulus waste any time flipping WYGY when they take over @June?...Probably not. Guess? Smooth Jazz, and beat CC's HD to market. Plus, makes for good combo sales with WARM.
2. WUBE has been consistent....Consistency leads to growth.....No surprise.
3. KISS is off within the margin of error for the fall book. School is in and the kids cant listen as much. (Especially the ones on punishment for poor marks in the 1st quarter.)
4. WIZF is showing its true colors....an inability to connect with anyone except the most ghetto listener....."NahI'msayin....ahite!" and that's how its goin down. (No offense....got friends in the ghetto.)
5. MOJO holds a Rick James revival every Friday night, and as it has in every other market, Jammin Oldies has lost its Mojo.... soon to join Rick in the great beyond. Can you say another one bites the dust? If it continues, Cumulus segues this one to Urban AC. Makes for good combo sales with a Smooth YGY. Could be argued that drop is within margin of error for fall, but I dont think thats the case this time.
6. Tom Joyner and Prime Time Sports can likely be credited for the WDBZ jump...but how much of it other than Tom will continue when the Radio One national urban talk network takes hold here?
7. WSAI....BENGALS....enough said.
8.For those of you who know who I am....I will not leave self analysis out.....WCIN? Can't write down what you cant hear. I'll leave the rest of the analysis to your discretion.
9. As for the narrow spread....starting to look like all the other large markets to me.
10. 2.8 net loss in "urbanesque" listenership 12+. Where did they go George?...Personally, I think they listen to WCIN and just didn't get a diary.....mmmmmm...lol



Your thoughts?
 
Hello Soldier...

Let's analyze...

WYGY beat WUBE in some younger demos and saw some growth. Doubt Cumulus will touch it. Keeping WUBE at bay with 25-54 women is important for WRRM.

MOJO has these up and downs all the time. Still scored well in demos.

WIZ will be back. Another station that has these down books, then comes back.
Same for KISS.

WDBZ is still owned by Ross Love. Don't think the Radio One Talk format will see the light of day here. Maybe on WCIN? WCVG?


WSAI: Bengals! Love to see "1360 WSAI" doing well!

WVMX: Christmas. Not so impressive as last year.

WCKY: Hanging in there with a 1.3<P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by Oscar on 01/18/06 11:55 PM.</FONT></P>
 
Re: Hello Soldier...

> Let's analyze...
>
> WYGY beat WUBE in some younger demos and saw some growth.
> Doubt Cumulus will touch it. Keeping WUBE at bay with 25-54
> women is important for WRRM.
>
> MOJO has these up and downs all the time. Still scored well
> in demos.
>
> WIZ will be back. Another station that has these down
> books, then comes back.
> Same for KISS.
>
> WDBZ is still owned by Ross Love. Don't think the Radio One
> Talk format will see the light of day here. Maybe on WCIN?
> WCVG?
>
>
> WSAI: Bengals! Love to see "1360 WSAI" doing well!


>
> WVMX: Christmas. Not so impressive as last year.
>
> WCKY: Hanging in there with a 1.3
>
Oscar,

WDBZ is owned by Ross with LMA by Radio one and Ross sits on Radio One's board, so beg to disagree.....CVG maybe....CIN...only if Radio One buys it. But why not DBZ given decreased payroll (Paid by Radio One in addition to LMA costs) created by such a situation on a station they LMA?...Its good for both parties already in partnership.

If rumors are true, The Beat in LA (Radio One's Flagship) will be a flip to Urban AC in the near future. I believe it to be a trend away from Pure Hip Hop radio...we shall see. Kiss will definitely be back, as I know a bunch of Urban/Churban listeners, and the mostly prefer KISS to WIZF. (At least the english speaking ones.)With that in mind, perhaps WIZF is the segue to AC.

Think a Smooth YGY doesn't accomplish much the same in that demo, plus give them greater combo sales, and cross promotional opportunites? The only way they don't make a change is that they just dont want B to have all the country. From what I hear, they may have scored in the numbers, but it isnt translating into revenue.

As for MOJO, has lasted this long due to lack of market competition.

Keep in mind I prefaced it all with "if it continues"....
 
Re: Hello Soldier...

I understand about WDBZ and the LMA, but Ross still pulls the strings there. Plus his kid needs a job. And what would happen to Lincoln?

A Smooth YGY would NOT accomplish that. Where would those Smooth Jazz listeners come from? Probably WRRM and sister WMOJ! Where would the WYGY Country listeners go? To WUBE. WRRM gets killed from both sides.

Mojo does well because it's well programmed. You may not think so with your background, but it's obviously been a consistent performer when everyone thought it wouldn't last. I remember an Oldies PD several years ago predicting Mojo's flip to CHR. That was in June 2000. That PD is no longer in town.<P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by Oscar on 01/19/06 01:05 AM.</FONT></P>
 
Re: Hello Soldier...

> I understand about WDBZ and the LMA, but Ross still pulls
> the strings there. Plus his kid needs a job. And what
> would happen to Lincoln?
>
> A Smooth YGY would NOT accomplish that. Where would those
> Smooth Jazz listeners come from? Probably WRRM and sister
> WMOJ! Where would the WYGY Country listeners go? To WUBE.
> WRRM gets killed from both sides.
>
> Mojo does well because it's well programmed. You may not
> think so with your background, but it's obviously been a
> consistent performer when everyone thought it wouldn't last.
> I remember an Oldies PD several years ago predicting Mojo's
> flip to CHR. That was in June 2000. That PD is no longer
> in town.
>
Ross's kid gets promoted off air, Lincoln goes to WCKY, and whats good for Radio One is good for Ross's stock. Who knows, perhaps

Again, I agree that keeping B at bay is a very viable strategy, and that some of the listeners would come from Warm if YGY flipped. Given the overall decrease in radio listenership, some listeners would come from those who are getting it from other sources, (which based on my personal exposure to non radio folks in this market is substantial....combined with -2.8 12+ this book compared to last with the urbanesque listener) The smooth flip only works with the MOJO segue, because the cluster gets some help from stealing from the wiz....but it's just a theory. I might add, a thoery based on a look at only the 12+ numbers. I think that MOJO performs well not because of its superior programming but because it has no competition. Is there another market you can think of that Jammin Oldies has survived where there was Urban AC comp?

I would never think that CHR would be an option, but I'm willing to wager that the PD to which you are referring was run out of town on a rail for his thoughts on the subject....unless he was MOJO's PD.

Always good to bounce things off you Oscar.
 
Re: Hello Soldier...

> I would never think that CHR would be an option, but I'm
> willing to wager that the PD to which you are referring was
> run out of town on a rail for his thoughts on the
> subject....unless he was MOJO's PD.

The PD to whom Oscar referred is non other than the legend in his own mind, Chuck Finney, late of WGRR. Who you been talking to, Oscar??
 
Re: Fall Book

Sorry to tell you this but Y will NOT be flipping to Smooth Jazz. So the ten people who would tune in to that format will just have to keep listening to their CD collections. :)
 
Re: Fall Book

> Sorry to tell you this but Y will NOT be flipping to Smooth
> Jazz. So the ten people who would tune in to that format
> will just have to keep listening to their CD collections. :)
>


Again, unless anyone responding here (including myself) is a Cumulus big whig....its all speculation. However, I don't get how anybody who disagrees with the possibility does so from the standpoint of #'s. Smooth had better #'s than the current or even last several YGY books in this market. If you are going to disagree, at least use the revenue angle that it cant be sold here, or as Oscar said keeping a share of country, coupled with protecting the female 25-54 demo for Warm. :0)
 
Re: Fall Book

Again, unless anyone responding here (including myself) is a
> Cumulus big whig....its all speculation. However, I don't
> get how anybody who disagrees with the possibility does so
> from the standpoint of #'s. Smooth had better #'s than the
> current or even last several YGY books in this market. If
> you are going to disagree, at least use the revenue angle
> that it cant be sold here, or as Oscar said keeping a share
> of country, coupled with protecting the female 25-54 demo
> for Warm. :0)
>
The numbers would be about the same, maybe. But I believe advertisers would stay away in droves. Unless they could deliver some big 25-54 numbers and I don't think Smooth Jazz could accomplish that in this market. If Cumulus flips Y to anything besides country than CC would change MIX to country so fast our heads would spin. No way they would let Infinity have the whole country audience in Cincinnat (which is huge by the way) to themselves.
 
Re: Fall Book

> Again, unless anyone responding here (including myself) is a
>
> > Cumulus big whig....its all speculation. However, I don't
> > get how anybody who disagrees with the possibility does so
>
> > from the standpoint of #'s. Smooth had better #'s than the
>
> > current or even last several YGY books in this market. If
> > you are going to disagree, at least use the revenue angle
> > that it cant be sold here, or as Oscar said keeping a
> share
> > of country, coupled with protecting the female 25-54 demo
> > for Warm. :0)
> >
> The numbers would be about the same, maybe. But I believe
> advertisers would stay away in droves. Unless they could
> deliver some big 25-54 numbers and I don't think Smooth Jazz
> could accomplish that in this market. If Cumulus flips Y to
> anything besides country than CC would change MIX to country
> so fast our heads would spin. No way they would let Infinity
> have the whole country audience in Cincinnat (which is huge
> by the way) to themselves.
>
Salami!!! My main man! I knew you had it in ya for a better answer than the first one. :0) If history is correct, they would be better...up to a full point given the summer book. I agree that some big 25-54 numbers are a must in order for it to work, and that B105 doing country alone gives them a huge advantage in this market. I also agree to the CC theory. However, I think that those #'s are not impossible, and that advertisers would respond under very specific circumstances. Finally, I think that the exodus of advertisers from the format is due to 3 major format faux pas.
1. Motown mix programming...
2. Background presentation...
3. Research is ONE thing,....NOT everything.

XM and Sirius will force TR back to the notion that content and creativity is king.....(Did I just segue to a new subject matter?)
 
Re: Fall Book

> Again, unless anyone responding here (including myself) is a
>
> > Cumulus big whig....its all speculation. However, I don't
> > get how anybody who disagrees with the possibility does so
>
> > from the standpoint of #'s. Smooth had better #'s than the
>
> > current or even last several YGY books in this market. If
> > you are going to disagree, at least use the revenue angle
> > that it cant be sold here, or as Oscar said keeping a
> share
> > of country, coupled with protecting the female 25-54 demo
> > for Warm. :0)
> >
> The numbers would be about the same, maybe. But I believe
> advertisers would stay away in droves. Unless they could
> deliver some big 25-54 numbers and I don't think Smooth Jazz
> could accomplish that in this market. If Cumulus flips Y to
> anything besides country than CC would change MIX to country
> so fast our heads would spin. No way they would let Infinity
> have the whole country audience in Cincinnat (which is huge
> by the way) to themselves.
>
I was surprised that WYGY did not flip to Contemporary Christian Music when Salem owned it a few years back. Salem has placed that format in many markets. If it works in other markets like Cleveland and Atlanta, it seems that Cincinnati would be a likely success since there is no other commercial CCM in the market.
 
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