Finally - Spring book out today.

[Talktalk]

Thank you...unfortunatly, I feel a novel coming...or is it a novella? anyhow, it's coming. I might print it and read it as I try to fall asleep tonite.

 

[adguy]

Can't help myself. DE keeps stepping in it and I must clarify.

DE, how can you make a claim that PPM is the cause for revenue losses, you have no back up, zero, nothing. Look at the top 10 markets around the country and you will find that revenue is down. That is not conjecture...that is fact

Also, you say Cost Per Points will go down, actually, they go up and planners plan for fewer points in the market. As evidenced by the Boston PPM TV test in 2001. The first Arbitron PPM tests were in Wilmington and they found similar patterns to the Nielsen PPM.

So, once again, you don't understand the revenue side of the business. Have a nice day.

DE is partially correct. What he doesn't want to admit is that radio (terrestrial that is) is eventually heading the way of the newpaper and magazine. In 15 years the majority of radio listeners will be exclusively IPOD and/or Satellite and terrestrial will have basically terd value. And DE, that includes your precious Spanish language stations. Yes, even Hispanics will adopt new technologies within 15 years. As someone who buys radio occasionally, I certainly have put pressure on my reps to lower rates because of the ACTUAL revised listenership. Radio and TV have been getting away with murder for years on inflated audience levels. I know. I used to manage a TV sales dept several years ago and sold TV for 15 years prior to that. We used to sit around and laugh sometimes at the sheer ignorance of the buying community that included buyers from top agencies all the way to the non-educated direct client buyers. I took my opportunity and got out ahead of the technology curve. There's more money and opportunity there than in media sales in the long run. Revenues will continue to decline for years to come because of BOTH the PPMs AND the growing inefficiency of the media itself. Ever wonder why the big owners are getting out now? They are not stupid. They realized their profits and know it's time to bail before losing money. Instead of laughing at the buyers' stupidity owners are now laughing at the really dumb station buyers paying more than 5 times cash flow for stations. In fact they're getting the real bellyaches from those paying more than 8 or 10 times cash flow. Personally, I wouldn't pay more than 3-4 times cash flow. The flow won't be there in a few years, but you could probably make a go of it at a lower price paid for a station. That said, unless you're Alice through the looking glass, don't look for rising revenues anytime soon if ever again.

 

[davideduardo]

DE, how can you make a claim that PPM is the cause for revenue losses, you have no back up, zero, nothing. Look at the top 10 markets around the country and you will find that revenue is down. That is not conjecture...that is fact

Since the PPM is active in only two markets, it can not be the reason for revenue flatness or decreases. In the 8 Top-10 non-PPM markets revenues are so far flat to off a percent or two. Which, in perspecitve, is far less than the economy or the stock markets are off. Hint: we are in a time of extreme caution... and radio has lost a lot of revenue from mortgage companies and brokers, home improvement suppliers, and related fields.

But in Philadelphia, the only PPM market with more than one month of history... revenues were off nearly 10% per the newsletters... in the second month after PPM went currency.

[/quote]Also, you say Cost Per Points will go down, actually, they go up and planners plan for fewer points in the market.[/quote]

I said ratings points will go down. The station with a 5 share had a 1.4 rating in the diary, and has a 0.9 rating in the PPM. This is because of the lower PUR in the PPM markets. Buyers may be hesitant to pay the same for lower point delivery, even if radio shows that "this is what you always were getting and the PPM just measures it better."

As evidenced by the Boston PPM TV test in 2001. The first Arbitron PPM tests were in Wilmington and they found similar patterns to the Nielsen PPM.

Actually the first tests were in England, and neither the British nor the Wilmington tests proved anything about PUR or provided comparable ratings data as not all stations were encoded. The first nezar valid test was Philadelphia.

So, once again, you don't understand the revenue side of the business. Have a nice day.

Very simple... if your station keeps the same share as in the diary, which many find true... your AQH persons and your rating will be about 35% less. Advertisers of the agency sort buy points, and the metric is the CPP. So, as the PPM rolls out, there is a very real possibility of a calamity that will affect billing, and change the ability of stations to pay for everything from talent to promotions.

 

[davideduardo]

DE is partially correct. What he doesn't want to admit is that radio (terrestrial that is) is eventually heading the way of the newpaper and magazine.

This is what was said in the early 50's post the lifting of the freeze. What will change is the delivery system, but broadcasters with content will continue to prosper, but not exclusively via towers with flashing red lights. The best broadcasters, the ones with content and not juke boxes with antennas, will have valuable content to be used by any delivery technology available.

In 15 years the majority of radio listeners will be exclusively IPOD and/or Satellite and terrestrial will have basically terd value.

But... the content has to come from somewhere. Music sweeps can be created by technologies like Pandora; entertainment will be the major attraction and we know there are few really mass appeal entertainers.

And DE, that includes your precious Spanish language stations. Yes, even Hispanics will adopt new technologies within 15 years.

And where will the get things like Piolin en la Mañana or Luis Jiménez and such? With most of the major talents in the sector, it does not matter how we distribute the content, but whether it is the best content.

As someone who buys radio occasionally, I certainly have put pressure on my reps to lower rates because of the ACTUAL revised listenership. Radio and TV have been getting away with murder for years on inflated audience levels.

And this is why radio is paying for better measurement. We know the diary is not precise, and so we are paying about two-thirds more to provide advertisers with better measurement. It's not as if radio were hiding something... it's our dime that is financing the new ratings meaasurement technology.

Revenues will continue to decline for years to come because of BOTH the PPMs AND the growing inefficiency of the media itself.

The medium is not inefficient. It is, however, going to go through pricing pressures. Revenues, in fact, have been slowly increasing every year but one, 2001, the erarly 90s. We will probably see flattenting of traditional broadcast, but an increase in alternate delivery, such as Internet, WiMax, etc.

Ever wonder why the big owners are getting out now? They are not stupid.

No, they are going private with many of the same owners because they feel broadcast is undervalued. Clear Channel, Univision, and Cumulus believe there is more value in being private. They feel the market is undervaluing station groups.

They realized their profits and know it's time to bail before losing money. Instead of laughing at the buyers' stupidity owners are now laughing at the really dumb station buyers paying more than 5 times cash flow for stations.

Even in the 70's and 80's, we paid 10 to 12 times BCF: in the hight of consolidation we saw 14 to 16 x BCF, and the current prices are around 12 to 14. Nobody got stations at 5 x BCF in recent memory.

In fact they're getting the real bellyaches from those paying more than 8 or 10 times cash flow. Personally, I wouldn't pay more than 3-4 times cash flow. The flow won't be there in a few years, but you could probably make a go of it at a lower price paid for a station. That said, unless you're Alice through the looking glass, don't look for rising revenues anytime soon if ever again.

The revenue increases will be in alternate distribution. They will amply compensate for any slow declines in broadcast reveneu, and the broadcaster with content will actually be able to increase revenues... but the stations will be the base for the next decade or more.

 

[Talktalk]

OK, now it's on...adman, hold tight i will get to your silly statements in a minute.

DE, last week you said Boston was "nearly double digit losses" now you quote a "newsletter" as down 10%. And even so, all markets are down, so exact results are irrelevant. Your information is evaluated by you in a vacum, (a little information is a dangerous thing)you have no empirical evidence to offer. You also come up with new "first" tests in England"...noooooo, actually, they have been tested in Asia, then Europe and Australia...But, they HAVE been in use here in the US in TV since 2001...and the results (empirical results) are similar to what we are finding in radio results.

Once again, you DID say cost per point would go down when you say they will buy the same points for less money. That is not what the empirical evidence says, as in tv, point levels will shrink and CPP will go up, resetting the market

And if you have anymore to argue about, read adman's rediculous statements, and think, he said YOU WERE RIGHT!

 

[davideduardo]

DE, last week you said Boston was "nearly double digit losses" now you quote a "newsletter" as down 10%.

There is no PPM in Boston yet. Philly is off nearly 10% in billing in second month of PPM, and the market broadcasters forcast double digit declines.

And even so, all markets are down, so exact results are irrelevant.

Nearly everyone was down in June, but many Top 10 markets are up, albeit slightly, on the year. This year is going to be close to zero gain, and could be a slight loss. Financial institutions, mortgage lenders, home improvement, home furninshings and auto is all off nationally in all media, and this is the main reason for the "flatness." In any case, radio is off a lot less than the stock mmarket! In case you have not noticed, there is an economy-related issue, as there was at the beginning of 2001 pre-9/11 and that is the only recent year that had national declines in radio billing.

Your information is evaluated by you in a vacum, (a little information is a dangerous thing)you have no empirical evidence to offer.

We are in 6 of the top 10 markets, and have plenty of empirical evidence, but it is confidential and proprietary. Our Q2 for radio was up 12% in revenue, though, as reported to analysts yesterday.

You also come up with new "first" tests in England"...noooooo, actually, they have been tested in Asia, then Europe and Australia...

Not the PPM. The Manchester test was the first PPM test, followed by Philly for two years, about 18 months hiatus, and then Houston started testing in mid-2005 and is now currency as of June, 2007. Arbitron has not tested in Asia and Australia. And, as I said, they tested in England. There was also a test of a wristwatch-like device in Switzerland about 5 years ago, but I did not keep track of that. BBM tested in Canada, then went currency last year for the Francophone markets under license with Arbitron.

But, they HAVE been in use here in the US in TV since 2001...and the results (empirical results) are similar to what we are finding in radio results.

There was limited testing of TV (limited cable encoding, limited local indie encoding) in Philly, and the Houston test started with TV, but Arbitron is not using the PPM for TV reports at the moment. There was no "user data" ever issued, and the agreement to partner with Nielsen fell through several years ago.

Once again, you DID say cost per point would go down when you say they will buy the same points for less money.

Agencies will try to buy the same shares for less money, as the underlying points are lower for PPM measurement. As stated, the shares are not that different, but they represent about a third lower ratings points as the PUR decreases. So agencies will look for greater reach and frequency by hammering rates to get the same CPP or add more stations to increase r&f.

That is not what the empirical evidence says, as in tv, point levels will shrink and CPP will go up, resetting the market

The agencies I have called on have resisted increasing the CPP, so spot rates will decrease. That is the Philly experience so far...

Radio has the challenge of saying, "this is what you were always getting, but the measurement was not accurate. We are now paying for better measurement, and you now know what you are getting."

 

[longtimelistener]

In any case, radio is off a lot less than the stock mmarket!





I hope D.E. knows more about radio than he knows about the stock market. Even with the recent downturn, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average is up 7% year to date.

 

[adguy]

OK, now it's on...adman, hold tight i will get to your silly statements in a minute.

Once again, you DID say cost per point would go down when you say they will buy the same points for less money. That is not what the empirical evidence says, as in tv, point levels will shrink and CPP will go up, resetting the market

And if you have anymore to argue about, read adman's rediculous statements, and think, he said YOU WERE RIGHT!

OK Talk, you must be in sales. You seem to offer your extremely myopic views. DE brings great points and is a realist to what's going on. You will find yourself explaining to your bosses why your budgets keep going down to the point where you will be like those other poor sales slobs (as I once used to be) running like that hampster on the spinning wheel to nowhere. On your point of resetting the market, you are out of your mind. Eventually it's going to come down to what it always is....supply and demand. If you're up on things you know that Ford is cutting its spot budgets 30-50% in the next 12 months and GM will be cutting somewhere around 50% off its network budgets over the next year, all starting this 4th quarter. My last year in sales management was 2000 and automotive made up over a third of my overall billing for the year. Now if I'm not mistaken automotive is even more predominant now than 7 years ago. If those cuts come to fruition, CPP's are going to crater, not because of PPMs (although that is a great reason to justify to your bosses), but because of major advertisers pulling out of increasingly inefficient advertising and moving the dollars to more efficient mediums. Of course we're talking network cable and the Internet search engines, banners, etc... I'm pretty safe in my own little Internet world. I report to myself and make sales reports just for me. With your view of the ad world you should prepare for a personal change like me. Perhaps you should open your eyes like DE and work your coming problems and perhaps you'll endure. TV and Radio are not going away, they are just going to eventually be less of a medium and will be fragmented among all the new mediums hitting the ad world today. Better think of adapting today to lower CPP's and more open supply. The smart ones are integrating their Internet and Mobile delivery technologies with every avail request they receive. Instead of denying Talk, you should take DE's road and start adapting.

 

[davideduardo]

I hope D.E. knows more about radio than he knows about the stock market. Even with the recent downturn, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average is up 7% year to date.

In the short tem, meaning June and July, the market is off. And there is a correlation with radio billings being off thse two months, based on the auto and financial sectors.

In fact, the market is just getting back to where it was 8 years ago.

In fact, I did so well in the market that is how I built my first radio station. But that is not the point. In the PPM markets, the billing is of due to the adjustment in the "New CPP" world, not the economy in general.

 

[Talktalk]

And the marathon thread continues, but this is good. It fleshes out the fraud. DE, you have once again flip lopped so many times in the hopes of covering off on your own lack of knowledge that the topic itself has been forgotten. If anyone even cares, go back through the posts and you will find that DE has either altered the topic mid point or completely flipped, one example, then everyone else can look for themselves, when we talk about PPM, Neilsen has been at it longer than Arbitron, the Neilsen tests took place long before the Arbitron tests, get your facts straight. Ok, another example, your comments about the stock market, I have NO idea what you just said in that last post when challenged on the numbers...and I don't think you do either.

Adguy, just because you could't cut it in radio sales does not give you authority to bash the industry. By the way, tell me, what does MYOPIC mean? Because I think if you knew, you would not have used that word. Revenue Focused is more appropriate, but we have also covered ratings, markets, PPM and other issues.

As far as the rest of your gibberish, you obviously don't buy radio, not sure if you buy anything but national cable, and that is fine. There is plenty of room for boutique ad agencies to get more shlong lengthening products on the internet and late night cable, and hey, I love informercials just as much as the next guy. But when you read about advertising cuts and attach them to radio in particular, you should document the source, don't worry, DG doesn't either.

And finally, one thing you should know, had you been able to cut it in the industry, you would have found that there are plenty of us in the biz doing just fine.

 

[davideduardo]

And the marathon thread continues, but this is good. It fleshes out the fraud. DE, you have once again flip lopped so many times in the hopes of covering off on your own lack of knowledge that the topic itself has been forgotten. If anyone even cares, go back through the posts and you will find that DE has either altered the topic mid point or completely flipped, one example, then everyone else can look for themselves, when we talk about PPM, Neilsen has been at it longer than Arbitron, the Neilsen tests took place long before the Arbitron tests, get your facts straight.

I never referred to the Nielsen system, which is not a "carry it with you" device and does not measure radio, which I thought was the theme here. Further, the Nielsen "box" was originally a set-top box that measured households, not people. In 2002, Nielsen made the meters "personal" so they measure viewers, not sets, replacing the channel usage boxes of the past. However, the Arbitron device is not just a personal meter, it is protable and is not a remote control that indicates each person who is viewing... or not.

The extreme differences are described in http://www.ephrononmedia.com/article_archive/articleViewerPublic.asp?articleID=107 where one can see that the Nielsen meter is not based on detection of a station-generated signal, but on each viewer pushing a button on a remote connected to the household box(es).

The Arbitron tests predated the Boston Nielsen test and implementation, and the first patents were obtained around 1994 or 1995.

Ok, another example, your comments about the stock market, I have NO idea what you just said in that last post when challenged on the numbers...and I don't think you do either.

My point is simple: Radio revenues were up through May, but the economic downturn in some rado advertising categories of significance have affected June and July. However, in the PPM markets, there has been a greater downturn based on the lower rating point delivery of radio (PUR) and individual stations.

The stock market has been off these last weeks, paralleling the issues affecting radio... so there is a definite possibility that the declines in general for June and July are more related to the economy than to the industry; the PPM market issues are separate and represent a double whammy.

Adguy, just because you could't cut it in radio sales does not give you authority to bash the industry.

Adguy's points are well reasoned, and come from the perspective of a successful media person who "cut it in radio" but found greater potential in the buying side; I know many people in advertising or at the client side who were, once upon a time, in media sales. The fact that they were good at media sales opened doors for career advancement.

As far as the rest of your gibberish, you obviously don't buy radio, not sure if you buy anything but national cable, and that is fine.

He buys radio. In fact, if you go back a year or so on this board, you will see some references to buying in the Houston market that contained fine reasoning on media selection for campaign goals.

But when you read about advertising cuts and attach them to radio in particular, you should document the source, don't worry, DG doesn't either.

My source is both our own station group (over 70 of them) and the local market reporting. Neither am I going to give you our specific revenues nor am I going to divulge MK data.

And finally, one thing you should know, had you been able to cut it in the industry, you would have found that there are plenty of us in the biz doing just fine.

[EDIT-reference to excised content from later in thread]

 

[adguy]

Love or hate DE, he is one of the most competent radio people posting to this board. I know a thing or two about the business, and he is a credible source for opinions and the ideas and the rationale he professes is logical most of the time. I don't agree with everything he posts, but I certainly respect his point of view. As to the Univision remarks, I have had the pleasure of doing business with them for many years. My clients/friends find great prosperity in their Hispanic customers and I have always found Univision to not only be the best on delivery of real clients, but a top notch first class business organization. So when DE glows about his company, he is championing the virtues of a great organization. I have dealt with others in the Spanish language space and other than Telemundo, the rest are really a bunch of hacks, neophites and scammers, all very jealous of Univision. I don't know DE personally, but if he has a high status inside Univision he really knows from what he preaches.

KPLEX, love your posts too. Always interesting and entertaining, but as to the DE to the Dan Frishberg comparrison, DE is a real radio professional. Frishberg is the most dangerous radio personality out there. He's a guy that thinks he has the knowledge and experience of a DE, but in reality is just one of those radio hacks scamming any and everyone he comes in contact with and has the authority of running a station and influencing a potential audience. The good thing about that is that he has no idea how to attract an audience, so any influence he might have is over a very few people that even know BizRadio exists.

[EDIT]

[EDITinflammatory content]

 

[kissmyradio]

Ad Guy ,Frishberg and DE are cut from the same burlap bag. They define why radio is on the fast decline.

 

[davideduardo]

Ad Guy ,Frishberg and DE are cut from the same burlap bag. They define why radio is on the fast decline.

Since radio is not in a fast decline, I guess that makes your accusations wrong, too.

 

[MikeShannon914]

Good golly, Miss Molly...people, take a deep breath and chill!!! ;D I suggest a stiff drink for each of you, and a heavy dose of some Smooth Jazz. Or maybe I can read you a traffic report or rattle off some celebrity birthdays in a soothing, relaxing tone. Or, try this:

I'm counting from 10 down to 1. You will feel a giant weight being lifted off you.

10...you're putting all thoughts of corporate radio into a tight ball. See the ball. See it move into your left hand.

9...you're taking that ball, and hurling it as hard as you can at the wall. See all the sales numbers, ratings, call letters and old bosses' names fall to the floor.

8...you're feeling no stress or tension at all. Your arms are becoming numb.

7...you feel a wave of relaxation moving from the top of your head to the ends of your toes.

6...the images in your mind of (choose one: DE, Kplex, AdGuy, TalkTalk) are fading into a dim light, replaced by an image of a radio station with nice bosses, no concern about ratings or sales, and a commitment to public service.

5...you are being asked what songs YOU'D like to play...and someone is wanting your opinion on the direction of the station.

4...you see all of your old bosses filing in the front door, asking for job applications.

3...you get the ratings book and your station is a solid, runaway #1.

2...you get a paycheck that's more than you ever expected, and it actually cashes.

1...you get a pat on the back from management, and told what a great job you're doing.

Congratulations, you are officially in la-la land, in a drunken stupor, and all your troubles are gone for a few seconds.

When I snap my fingers, you will wake up in time for work in the morning, completely refreshed and ready to type nice things on Radio-Info...

 

[Robert Bass]

Mike,

On a completely unrelated note, please check your radio-info private messages.

R

 

[TheRover]

KPLEX, love your posts too. Always interesting and entertaining, but as to the DE to the Dan Frishberg comparrison, DE is a real radio professional. Frishberg is the most dangerous radio personality out there. He's a guy that thinks he has the knowledge and experience of a DE, but in reality is just one of those radio hacks scamming any and everyone he comes in contact with and has the authority of running a station and influencing a potential audience. The good thing about that is that he has no idea how to attract an audience, so any influence he might have is over a very few people that even know BizRadio exists.

I will always take issue with the goal of "attracting an audience" for advertisers as a reason for a radio station to exist. I would prefer the FCC take a stiffer interpretation of what it means to "Serve the Public Interest," in contrast to "Serving the iPublic Interests of Advertisers", when considering the granting and re-newing of these licences to use "the Public's Airwaves". 8)

 

[Robert Bass]

KPLEX, love your posts too. Always interesting and entertaining, but as to the DE to the Dan Frishberg comparrison, DE is a real radio professional. Frishberg is the most dangerous radio personality out there. He's a guy that thinks he has the knowledge and experience of a DE, but in reality is just one of those radio hacks scamming any and everyone he comes in contact with and has the authority of running a station and influencing a potential audience. The good thing about that is that he has no idea how to attract an audience, so any influence he might have is over a very few people that even know BizRadio exists.

I will always take issue with the goal of "attracting an audience" for advertisers as a reason for a radio station to exist. I would prefer the FCC take a stiffer interpretation of what it means to "Serve the Public Interest," in contrast to "Serving the iPublic Interests of Advertisers", when considering the granting and re-newing of these licences to use "the Public's Airwaves". 8)

Ditto x 100! I could not have said it any better!

R

 

[davideduardo]

I will always take issue with the goal of "attracting an audience" for advertisers as a reason for a radio station to exist. I would prefer the FCC take a stiffer interpretation of what it means to "Serve the Public Interest," in contrast to "Serving the iPublic Interests of Advertisers", when considering the granting and re-newing of these licences to use "the Public's Airwaves". 8)

Your concern is precisely why the FCC "created" the non-commercial part of the FM band; stations that were financed by other than advertising that could serve the audience in a different manner than those whose ability to serve was first and formost determined by the ability to achieve advertiser support for the effort.

Anyone who is going to operate a radio station is going to be signficiantly driven by obtaining a return on the mlney invested that makes the whole endeavor worthwhile. It has been this way for over 80 years.

 

[adguy]

10...you're putting all thoughts of corporate radio into a tight ball. See the ball. See it move into your left hand.

9...you're taking that ball, and hurling it as hard as you can at the wall. See all the sales numbers, ratings, call letters and old bosses' names fall to the floor.

6...the images in your mind of (choose one: DE, Kplex, AdGuy, TalkTalk) are fading into a dim light, replaced by an image of a radio station with nice bosses, no concern about ratings or sales, and a commitment to public service.

5...you are being asked what songs YOU'D like to play...and someone is wanting your opinion on the direction of the station.

4...you see all of your old bosses filing in the front door, asking for job applications.

3...you get the ratings book and your station is a solid, runaway #1.

2...you get a paycheck that's more than you ever expected, and it actually cashes.

1...you get a pat on the back from management, and told what a great job you're doing.

When I snap my fingers, you will wake up in time for work in the morning, completely refreshed and ready to type nice things on Radio-Info...

Nice sentiments, but this is board is good therapy as to charging thought provoking discussions both gentle and rough. There's nothing wrong with a high charged discussion. It's great banter and terrific entertainment as long as everyone stays truthful to the facts and opinions. I can't really worry about radio stations. I haven't listened to FM in over 2 years. I have Sirius in my car and XM in the office. I hate commercials. I can admit that now that I no longer sell them, but I do buy them occassionally for some friends. I do listen to AM talk, again for the entertainment of the banter. This board is at its best when TalkTalk, DE, myself, KPLEX and others "go after it". If you can't take the height, jump off the mountain. Jim Rome calls it "smack". With no bosses, ratings or sales figures to worry about, I call it "fun". Keep it real

ADGUY