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First 30 day rolling averages are due Monday COB

M

mouseman

It is going to be very interesting to get a look at the first Phase of the Winter Book; Nov-Dec-Jan. While it will in no way be indicative of what finally plays out in the market, we'll see pretty quickly if anyone tanked in January with their new formats. With about a dozen stations dropping October numbers from their old format, and adding 30 days of January with new formats/calls/etc. I can't imagine what we'll see.

Does anyone want to make some predictions, just for fun?
 
So, WIBC gains 0.5+ 12+ moving from the AM dial to the FM [6.2 Fall to 6.7 Ph1 WI].

AM 1070 goes from a 6.2 12+ as WIBC last quarter to NO 12+ rating at all as The Fan in the first 30 day rolling average[Ph1 WI]. Tanked. Even WXLW, stripped of the ESPN brand by The Fan, maintained a 0.8 through the first 30 days of completely new network programming.

I'll bet someone in the Emmis offices still thinks this is a brilliant move because IBC is doing what they wanted on FM; gaining a bit. So much for billing $9+ million on a 6 share AM station; brilliant, just brilliant.

By the way, kudos to Oasis' crew for turning 101.9 around pretty quickly with Oldies. First 30 day trend has them up to 3.4 [from 2.8], which means January had to be a killer 30 days compared to October [Nov-Dec-Jan]. The station just sounds better each day and the format's exclusive.

WRRM? Not a warm arrival; more like cold, as in a DOA cadaver. 30 day trend is lower than FM talk.

No one wanted to humor me yesterday when I asked for guesses on how this would turn out; doesn't anyone else have an opinion on all this now?
 
mouseman said:
So, WIBC gains 0.5+ 12+ moving from the AM dial to the FM [6.2 Fall to 6.7 Ph1 WI].

AM 1070 goes from a 6.2 12+ as WIBC last quarter to NO 12+ rating at all as The Fan in the first 30 day rolling average[Ph1 WI]. Tanked. Even WXLW, stripped of the ESPN brand by The Fan, maintained a 0.8 through the first 30 days of completely new network programming.

I'll bet someone in the Emmis offices still thinks this is a brilliant move because IBC is doing what they wanted on FM; gaining a bit. So much for billing $9+ million on a 6 share AM station; brilliant, just brilliant.

By the way, kudos to Oasis' crew for turning 101.9 around pretty quickly with Oldies. First 30 day trend has them up to 3.4 [from 2.8], which means January had to be a killer 30 days compared to October [Nov-Dec-Jan]. The station just sounds better each day and the format's exclusive.

WRRM? Not a warm arrival; more like cold, as in a DOA cadaver. 30 day trend is lower than FM talk.

No one wanted to humor me yesterday when I asked for guesses on how this would turn out; doesn't anyone else have an opinion on all this now?
Click to expand...






It is only one trend, but one thing you may be missing: 2/3's of this trend is made up of data from before the AM to FM switch.

In the January data (after move to FM) WIBC pulled an 8.1 12+

In January, I believe WIBC was in the Top 5 25-54. They usually don't make the Top Ten.

It is only one trend, however...so much for the naysayers that said WIBC's audience wouldn't be able to find the new frequency. ::)
 
Wow. I an glad the AM kept all those listeners it did......ESPN has great numbers.
 
1070 is not likely ever have the numbers it used to have, but it will be back in the next couple of months. When the Colts season kicks in their numbers should get a further boost.
 
Wow, Bigtime, that's pretty optimistic: "1070 will get a boost when the Colts are back on the air." Emmis will clear the Colts on Hank too; if 1070 had them exclusively, maybe they get a bump.

I did see where WIBC FM's 30 day January number was good, up a couple share points; that was the plan and again I'm sure folks on the Circle feel vindicated.

However, I still cannot be convinced that moving $9.4mil and 6 share 12+ off of AM1070 will ever pan out to be a smart decision. There wasn't enough response on the first 30 day trend for the AM to even show up 12+ and that's with a ton of advertisng. No matter what the increase is on IBC FM, it's not going to cover the AM's complete demise.
 
I have to believe that phantom cume had a lot to do in this trend. If someone was still listening to 1070 and they wrote down WIBC, WIBC-FM would get the credit.

Another case for PPM.
 
I think it just proves there are some listeners there for the taking in the sports market. Someone would have to put some real effort and money into it, in order for it to work though. And with it being so easy to simply flip the syndication switch (ESPN, Fox, etc) not many are willing to put the necessary work in. But I think you could garner some decent ratings if you gave people a reason to listen. That being consistent, quality, local programming, with names people recognize and hosts that are funny and entertaining.
 
I think if I'm the programming brains at Emmis HQ, I might be a little nervous that after I give the store away to the Colts to get them to leave a huge FM signal (WFBQ) after a tremendously successful run there and move over to a split-signal setup (WLHK & now WFNI), the weekend 25-54 numbers don't show any significant gains in the past 2 quarters compared to last year. As I recall WFBQ, which has not had great weekend numbers forever, saw some very nice gains when they aired the Colts games each year. After handing the Colts all that airtime on multiple Emmis stations PLUS a huge cash payment up front, I'd be wondering if maybe King Emmis was acting a little too much with his heart instead of his brain on this one.
 
They killed the AM and it won't come back.

Thing about Jeff is you have to respect a man willing to make hard decisions.
 
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