FIVE or TEN years from now ... what's your forecast?

[TheBigA]

Corporate radio isn't interested in content as much as they are feeding the masses, so instead of an exclusive bistro, they are making McDonald's and putting them next to Burger King.

First of all, it sounds like you've never listenered to Radio Disney, because they offer lots of exclusives.

Second, what you're talking about isn't an exclusive bistro. Trust me, there's nothing exclusive about Justin Bieber. He is very much McDonalds. The problem is the music industry controls that, and they don't want him to be exclusive. The policies of the music industry are that artists and their music should be available everywhere. Radio Disney owns the music of their biggest stars, so it's easy for them to do exclusives, and they do them. It doesn't change the fact that what they do, while interesting to their core audience, doesn't move the meters to the degree you think it would. That is why the music industry wants its artists and music to be heard across multiple platforms.

 

[TVradioguru]

You can put a great restaurant in a crappy location in the middle of nowhere and it CAN do well, but only IF it's GREAT. Corporate radio isn't interested in content as much as they are feeding the masses, so instead of an exclusive bistro, they are making McDonald's and putting them next to Burger King.

"GREAT" according to who's standards, yours?...your neighbors?

If indeed your personal taste was being satisfied at all times, chances are a great deal of the population would not be. You could have the best vegetarian bistro in a rough part of town and not last a year in business because A; there aren't enough vegetarians in town to support it on a daily basis and B; People interested in eating there hesitate to try because they believe the neighborhood isn't worth the risk.

Radio is a business, 99% of the stations being owned by corporations large or small. The more listeners you have in the sought after demographic, the more successful your business. To use your analogy; just because you don't like the food served at McDonalds, doesn't mean millions of people don't. Air America Network was a prime example. It tried to play the other side of the left-side political coin in the same arena (AM radio) as right-side networks, but it failed miserably. That didn't mean there weren't some listeners interested in left-leaning talk radio, there just weren't enough of them. No political statement intended, just the facts.

Playing to the "masses" is the goal of ANY radio station. AM stations have their hands tied starting with poor audio quality, poor coverage with noise. The fact remains that no station owner of any size, including The Mouse House, has the resources to offer enough exclusive content and promotions wherewithal to drive listeners to what is perceived as a defective broadcast medium and then keep those listeners.

Adding another nail to the AM radio coffin is the fact that major electronics and auto manufacturers are dropping AM radio receivers in cars and aftermarket, but including things like FM, USB and other storage within the radio.

 

[Jay Peninger]

You totally missed my point. Radio Disney was not "The Hannah Montana Show"...if it was the ONLY place you could get an EXCLUSIVE Hannah show (but that would be hard now, since they'd also make it a podcast...but my point is IF they only did it on an AM station, then the kids would have found it. You can put a great restaurant in a crappy location in the middle of nowhere and it CAN do well, but only IF it's GREAT. Corporate radio isn't interested in content as much as they are feeding the masses, so instead of an exclusive bistro, they are making McDonald's and putting them next to Burger King.

Trust me if a kid could pirate a Big Mac there wouldn't be half as many McDonalds on street corners.... And I would disagree with your assertion that if you simply put good music on a crappy medium kids will still find it... One thing almost all kids have in common is they have a huge appetite for music and whether you choose to believe it or not they know what sounds best and I seriously doubt that they would settle for an inferior AM signal when they can download the same content onto a iPod or any number of other mobile devices.

Name one mainstream mobile device that comes equipped with an AM receiver? Zune, iRiver and any number of others including phones have FM built in....

We live in the age of stream rippers and torrent clients and its not the 40+ set who are doing the majority of that activity...

There is a reason most restaurants fail in their first year no matter how exclusive and great they think they are... What they consider great nine out of ten times doesn't appeal to the masses who are all down the street eating at Red Lobster and Outback Steakhouse....

 

[Steenman]

Advertisers will continue to seek audiences of any reasonable size and definable character whether on AM, FM, TV, the internet, or anywhere else. Everything is a fraction of a fraction now, you 'niche' yourself to death trying to find enough bodies to get any response to ads and to acquire them at a reasonable cost. My theory: 'Fragmentation' is going to be replaced by 'Personalization' the idea that you (as an advertiser) buy a consumer 'profile'. As people (willingly or unwillingly) provide more detailed personal information about themselves (in exchange for 'free' information) and technology continues to figure out how to put it together (Safeway club card info mashed with your google searches, mashed with your PPM data, mashed with your credit score, mashed with your last Amazon book purchase, mashed with the car you drive, mashed with how long you've been married.... etc, etc, etc), media models will emerge that allow you to most precisely target the individual attributes of your customer.

Think internet geo-targeting but on a grander scale, you'll buy 'collections' of people and media fragments will be pieced together that reach this group. And radio signals will be a part of this but the ad you hear on that break on KOMO won't be the same ad I will hear.

On a (humorous) side note- we could finally see the end of the 'direct' radio rep.

 

[searadiofreak]

Good post, Steenman. I agree, marketing will be personalized (already is), based on what you do on the web. The radio/tv issue is more complicated. This could hurt that medium. While we all are witnessing personalized adds on our home pages, when traditional media can do the same, the playing field will be more even. It probably will have to do with conjoining our tv/radio usage on our internet accounts. Probably a year or two away, but will happen. Bottom line, traditional media is far from dead, just in need of a way to target consumers individually. It'll be here within three years, or less.

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

I continue to believe the medium choice will be based on the type of campaign being done. There's still that "mass appeal" pool for things like soft drinks, insurance, buying a car ... basically planting the seed of name recognition far in advance of when you are doing the purchase.

The geo-targeting and preference targeting more for niche advertisers ... geography gives you opportunity for restaurant or dry cleaners down the road to make a low-cost impression; and niches (like advertisers on this board) are for the people who share an interest. In other words, you're not likely to see a forklift advertised on KOMO 4 News ... but probably would on a construction-content site. Radio/TV/and city-wide newspapers likely to continue reaching the "we want an image" clients -- though CPP will probably adjust. Their websites, when done correctly, can address the geo-targeting. POSSIBLY the story content would generate the niche connection, though most sites punt on that and use the "Google" tie-ins for solving that challenge.

 

[crainbebo]

1. AM's begin their long decline. We will probably see one of the small stations (KGNW, KLFE, KKMO) off in 5 years probably.

2. FM music begins it's long decline to the information superhighway. How long is it before you hear "Freedom 570 and 101.5 KVI", "Alternative Talk AM 1150 and 98.9", and "Now 106.1"?

3. CW and MNTV will be gone.

4. Nickelodeon and Disney will lose the preschool blocks to iCarly and Hannah Montana marathons. Maybe yes, maybe no..., will your 4-year-old Barney lover have to go online and see the shows?

-crainbebo

 

[Gatekeeper007]

Let me bring a few points that people always seem to miss to this thread. First off the internet has been in it's glory days or golden years in a lot of ways, pricing not too high, content allowed to flow without too much restriction goverment or other wise. This will change as bandwidth becomes harder and harder to get at a reasonable price due to all the new types equiment smart phones, Ipod downloads, WiFi radio, ect... needing more and more bandwidth space which could cause the internet to inplode on it's self under it's own weight or at the very least make things very expensive to operate, kind of like gas cost to put in your car or truck now a days. Also the internet does not have good equal quality hookup or service in every part of the USA/country which makes it of little or almost no use in some areas not to mention the city and suburb areas where when everybody gets on line the system almost crashes or goes so slow that your not sure you still have a connection. In other words don't count your chickens before they hatch. As for radio AM is heading for big trouble if it doesn't wake up and start changing things like letting people know that yes there is still an AM band out there and yes it can still be used for many good things, maybe a TV commerical that says AM radio yes the other radio band. FM radio on the other hand often seems to be doing it's best to kill it's self off by lowering it's quality and cheapening it's product to the point of self destruction. Some of the points made in this thread are very true but not always for the reasons the people think they are.

 

[TVradioguru]

FM radio on the other hand often seems to be doing it's best to kill it's self off by lowering it's quality and cheapening it's product to the point of self destruction. Some of the points made in this thread are very true but not always for the reasons the people think they are.

Interesting statement! Given FM listening is up, what examples of 'lowered quality' or "cheapening" is leading up to the "destruction" of FM radio? Please give examples.

Or is this merely another one of the; 'radio isn't as I remembered growing up (revisionist history), so it must be bad'-opinions, posted by some here?

 

[Gatekeeper007]

FM listening is up and down, granted it might be on an up swing in some areas but not all areas are that blessed. One example is the release of local talent or trade to another station where their style doesn't fit but their contract does. Radio requires a certain amount of true feeling mixed with talent from DJ's and their programers to make a station feel like it's a part of family, something that you really want to listen to that pulls you into the broadcast, makes you smile, laugh, and feel that it's an important part of your area or community, that the station your listening to really cares about it's community and the people in it. Listeners can be fooled but not forever, they are not stupid, they know when something feels right or wrong and right now radio doesn't feel right, it feels white washed, copied, flat sounding on many stations like everything is networked together with no differences from one station to the next ie: no feeling.

 

[radioguy39nj]

If the Performance Tax passes, bye bye FM music radio. News/talk and sports will flood the FM dial. Even 50 kW AM blasters in the mega markets of NY, LA and Chicago will likely migrate to FM if they want to stay in business.

 

[TVradioguru]

FM listening is up and down, granted it might be on an up swing in some areas but not all areas are that blessed.

That's a pretty vague response. The stock market goes up and down, but nobody that I've heard of claims that the US Stock Exchanges are in jeopardy because the value goes down.

Your original claim was that FM radio was of lowering quality. I was asking for examples of what the lower quality was, but your response lacked any specific examples, instead going into what amounts to a personal esoteric take on what you believe the radio listening public wants.

Based on actual research..In a nutshell, what the public wants is; what they want, when they want it. Depending on the demographic that could be, news, conservative talk, or music. Does any research indicate they want air talent to connect with them or their area? Nope. In fact, more often than not, research comes back with comments like; more music with less commercials, more music with less DJ chatter, or more traffic reports and weather.

The key is finding the correct balance between the music and air talent geared toward the demographic one is trying to reach.

Listeners can be fooled but not forever, they are not stupid, they know when something feels right or wrong and right now radio doesn't feel right, it feels white washed, copied, flat sounding on many stations like everything is networked together with no differences from one station to the next ie: no feeling.

To the best of my knowledge, nobody in the radio business is trying to fool anyone, let alone our listeners. The fact is that listeners want to hear quality. If given the choice between hearing country music with some local station with small town sounding air talent, or researched country music with large market air talent from twenty miles away, listeners choose the large market sound every time. Consumers want high quality at low or no cost, period. That's the way it works for consumables and radio too.

 

[mightymoose]

HD radio will go the way of the 8 track player. Music artists do more promotion via their web sites, YouTube, Facebook and the like. Record companies tank because artists don't need them anymore. Maybe some kid who's in the 8th grade now will become the next Mark Zuckerberg and have a fresh idea for radio.

 

[Jay Peninger]

I think with the advent of HD televisions which now have Social Networking applications such as Facebook, Twitter, Google, Email it is only a matter of time before a company like RadioTime develops an application for televisions that will allow Audio & Video Podcasts & Net Radio to be accessed via your television and that is why people who are on the bleeding edge of that transformation are going to have tremendous success if they play their cards right.

Many stations still treat streaming and podcasting as a value added element for their existing listeners, they don't put any value or thought into using these tools to reach new undiscovered listeners or those who may not be radio listeners and it is very short sighted because the Internet Audience as the technology changes are going to be an ever growing and expanding portion of the market.

 

[TVradioguru]

That's because for a local radio station, out of market listeners don't return any value, only expense in bandwidth. Radio station websites are useful as a vehicle for station promotional information that would take too much time on the air, but that's about it.

Streaming of radio has shown not even moved the needle in ratings or listenership, mainly because most of those listeners, albeit small, are out of town and don't participate in PPM.