FM TALK: NOWWWWWWWWWWW IT BEGINS...

[Holland Cooke]

Many thought that the specter of music royalties might, finally, move Talk to FM.
Instead, it appears, financial desperation will.
And, in-the-process, incumbent AM talkers can end-up better-off.

This morning's headlines bring news that -- after a 20-year affiliation -- Rush Limbaugh will be leaving Curtis Media's WPTF/Raleigh and WSJS/Winston-Salem. Ditto other Premiere programs.

'Hard to believe that this is just "a North Carolina thing," eh?
ANY Rush-affiliated competitor in a Clear Channel market is now a time bomb.

Choking on debt -- and smelling-the-coffee that "music radio" is becoming an oxymoron -- Clear Channel will likely replicate this template elsewhere, putting their-own programming on their-own stations, in markets where, until now, they've been competing with it. 'Makes sense to Gordon Gekko guys who hold the debt, who call this "vertical integration."

Implications:

1. Ironically, Clear Channel -- the company many blame for "breaking" radio -- may unwittingly help "fix it" by doing this. Way-back-when, Rush was a cost-saver, on the underdog station in most markets. Stations could cover 3 weekday hours without the expense of a local host. Then, as The Big Guy got bigger...and bigger...so did his clearance fee, and he ended up on alpha-dog stations in each market, trophy call letters. Now, in many markets, The Rush Limbaugh Show costs more than a solid local host would. So, as Clear Channel replicates this template elsewhere, one of the unintended consequences may be the restoration of live/local programming to those hours, on Talk Radio's biggest stations.

2. Weekends will suck less. Premiere is cramming-down weekend Rush and Sean Hannity re-runs. Can Glenn Beck replays be far-behind? An Arbitron diary comment I read, referring to a Limbaugh affiliate, said "on the weekend, it sounds like they think nobody's listening." These six weekend hours -- nine if re-Beck is crammed-down -- are hours when affiliates could otherwise be doing more-weekend-appropriate, more-Sales-friendly programming, the how-to buff-stuff that's more in-synch-with listeners' lifestyles than yet-more blah blah blah from Thursday.

Sometimes, things have a way of working out.

HC
www.HollandCooke.com

PS: Back in North Carolina, Clear Channel is tipping-its-hand in Greensboro: http://rushradio945.com
'Eager to hear that TBA guy.

PPS: Even under-the-circumstances, the Curtis/Raleigh gang sure hasn't lost their sense-of-humor:
http://www.rushradio1061.com/

 

[Signal_Faded]

In the cases of Greensboro and Austin (where regional Mexican KHHL-FM flipped today) you have to wonder if some of these are preemptive strikes, in future PPM markets, where they feel that spoken word will work better than the Hispanic programming?

 

[Holland Cooke]

"The right thing" can happen "for the wrong reason."

Talk BELONGS on FM, "for the right reasons:"
1. 80% of TSL is on FM.
2. FM covers a Metro better than many AMs, whose footprints change month-to-month.
3. News/Talk/Sports programming is more-Sales-friendly than music radio.
4. Increasingly, people are getting their music elsewhere.

When I programmed WTOP/Washington, we were a 50KW AM @ 1500, north/south.
I've heard that station, at night, in Canada and in Florida.
If only we could've gotten-into West Falls Church VA and Germantown MD.

Now, on FM, the station is #1, and its median age instantly dropped 10 years.

Those are "the right reasons" to move News/Talk/Sports to FM.

In this case, "the right thing" could happen "for the wrong reason," because Clear Channel is crippled by debt.

Ironically, Homer & Marge Listener will end up with better radio, if they can get News/Talk/Sports on FM...AND if stations-Premiere-is-jilting go-local.

 

[Signal_Faded]

Don't get me wrong...I am a HUGE proponent of Talk on the FM dial. I just think we are walking into a perfect storm. I have been to the same conventions as you have for the past 5-7 years and heard the talk industry talk about the coming wave of FM...and it never seems to amount to anything. As you put it perfectly in your title...'NOW it begins.'

For me the perfect storm is thus:

1. Talk, on the whole, is very PPM friendly getting stations nice big Cume numbers (and for those who have seen the Arbitron/Coleman study on high performance stations you know that is a big indicator of success. See the presentation at http://colemaninsights.com/press/Co...erentiate High Performance Radio Stations.pdf.

2. Formats, such as Hispanic are not, for some reason, finding traction in a PPM world as they did in the diary world.

3. The thought of a performance tax has many group owners looking at talk as a viable, less expensive, option.

I agree Holland...it just makes sense to go where the listeners are.

 

[gr8oldies]

Cox has Limbaugh pretty much locked in here in Dayton since they are already on both AM and FM. I doubt at this point Clear Channel would take 980 AM News/talk (even with rating sbelow a 1 share with sports), and even if they did, WHIO AM/FM would keep on sailing with Boortz, Clark Howard and Hannity. You do have some markets where there isn't an FM that's going to be able to duplicate an AM format or do their own talk format. Cinncinati Clear Channel only has 2 FMs left; I don't see WEBN or WKFS becoming WLW-FM or WKRC-FM (though if WBCN could be blown up I supose anything is possible). Between all of CC's AMs there, they have almost all the syndicated political and sports talk.

 

[JustPastBuffalo]

Rush on FM would be formidable, no doubt. The studies cited in this thread are revealing. There is a concern about PPM measurement. Joint Communications' John Parikhal has presented questions about the sample, accuracy and reliability derived from PPM measurement.

 

[Oldbones]

Re: "The right thing" can happen "for the wrong reason."

Talk BELONGS on FM, "for the right reasons:"
1. 80% of TSL is on FM.
2. FM covers a Metro better than many AMs, whose footprints change month-to-month.
3. News/Talk/Sports programming is more-Sales-friendly than music radio.
4. Increasingly, people are getting their music elsewhere.

Not sure I agree with all these points (especially 3 & 4), nor the conclusion you draw.

Keep in mind that while a full-power metro FM will have more coverage than a low powered (or one with a less than full-market directional signal), these are also the most successful with music formats. The Class A rimshots that are included as metro signals but are nowhere near full coverage and thusly less profitable are the ones that have less to lose by going talk. Certainly not likely to be much competition for a WBZ, WABC, WLS, etc.

While sports is definitely a sales-friendly format, I'm not so sure about (non-sports) talk. A lot of talk programming is controversial...something a lot of advertisers avoid like the plague. Look at the list of programs that agencies specify their spots not run in....pretty much every major talk show is on that list (as well as some not-so-major ones). Look at who the sponsors are of even the top-rated syndicated shows...Rush, Beck, Hannity...lots of sleazy PI type spots (Goldline, that on-line data backup service whose name escapes me, etc.). Even the reputable companies like Geico are buying such bulk airtime that they're getting time at giveaway prices. These shows aren't an easy sell on the local level either. Most businesses don't want to offend potential customers by being seen as sponsoring controversial programming.

While there are more sources for music today than ever before...certainly radio isn't the only game in town anymore, there is still a huge audience for music stations...one that isn't going away anytime soon. If anything drives talk to FM it's more likely to be the performance tax than any great desire to hear talk on FM (public radio excluded). Maybe WTOP did better on FM than on AM, but 1500 was pretty signal-challenged where it counted. FM talk success stories, like successful lib-talkers are few and far between.

I'm not sure how much younger an audience talk radio will attract by being on FM....geezers have FM radios too. With the exception of sports & shock jocks, talk just doesn't have that much under-40 appeal.

 

[smedge2006]

2. Weekends will suck less. Premiere is cramming-down weekend Rush and Sean Hannity re-runs. Can Glenn Beck replays be far-behind? An Arbitron diary comment I read, referring to a Limbaugh affiliate, said "on the weekend, it sounds like they think nobody's listening." These six weekend hours -- nine if re-Beck is crammed-down -- are hours when affiliates could otherwise be doing more-weekend-appropriate, more-Sales-friendly programming, the how-to buff-stuff that's more in-synch-with listeners' lifestyles than yet-more blah blah blah from Thursday.

Unfortunately, as I pointed out in another thread, some weekend shows (especially syndicated ones) are undermining their sales-friendliness by sounding more like the attack-dog radio heard during the week. Since many stations have not only canned (or never had) local staffers to do talk or teach it to specialty-show newcomers, those unfilled weekend hours will in many cases end up filled with those half-hour programs that talk about the hundreds of pounds of waste found in John Wayne's colon.

There's also the question of how listener-friendly the sales-friendly programming is. Just because I'm working on my patio deck Saturday afternoon doesn't mean I want to hear somebody talking about patio decks.

 

[Holland Cooke]

Just because I'm working on my patio deck Saturday afternoon doesn't mean I want to hear somebody talking about patio decks.

Most weekend listeners would prefer hearing what-was-OBVIOUSLY Limbaugh's Thursday show, complete with references to real-time events on a muted studio Fox News monitor at the time?

 

[Element9]

The News-Talk move to FM is getting a lot of hype and press now, but this may come to a grinding halt if the business doesn't have properly trained and effective sales men and women who know how to sell the talk format. Sadly, over the last two years, the seasoned, street savvy sales men and women have been shown the door in favor of fresh faces who can be trained and indoctrinated to the corporate sales game plan.

It takes a dedicated sales professional to overcome objections and sell the advantages of local talk radio. It's not like selling a schedule on the cluster's ten-in-a-row AC, Country of Classic Rock format. Smart clients who have the fortitude to stay with it know the advantages of buying time on a successful news-talk format. But selling the format may become the real issue as to how successful the format becomes on FM.

 

[Signal_Faded]

I think the point about talk being sales friendly correlates to the facts that in many markets talk stations with lower ratings are able to out bill (sometimes significantly) the higher rated music stations in the market.

 

[FTL_Ian]

Kudos to TRN for doing a great job marketing the FM talk phenomenon - the change will benefit all of us. More stations means more affiliates for everyone in syndication and the extra competition means local shows will be more likely to appear, plus the numbers show FM talk increases the total number of talk listeners as many FM listeners never venture to the AM band.

Hooray! ;D

 

[MikefromDelaware]

Now, in many markets, The Rush Limbaugh Show costs more than a solid local host would. So, as Clear Channel replicates this template elsewhere, one of the unintended consequences may be the restoration of live/local programming to those hours, on Talk Radio's biggest stations.

An interesting case was in Wilmington Delaware where Premiere did pull Rush, at the end of the contract, from WDEL and put it on their CC station WILM. Interestingly, then ABC radio told WDEL that if they wanted to keep Hannity they'd have to air Mark Levine's show. Apparently WDEL told ABC to take a hike (there was quite a thread about this event here at RI when it happened). Then WDEL chose to not air second tier satellite talkers but did go live and local during the day parts. As it turned out, at least in the 12+ numbers, WDEL is beating WILM, and if you listen to both stations, WDEL has far many more spots than WILM who airs many PSA's during the local avails during Rush/Hannity.

I also looked at the 12+ numbers for Baltimore and WCBM, the station in Baltimore, that airs Rush/Hannity has lower numbers than WBAL that also is doing live and local talk like WDEL in Wilmington.

So there may be something to be said for good live and local talk over the same ole same ole Rush/Hannity parade. My guess is the key to beating out Limbaugh/Hannity is GOOD live and local talk. However, as Holland has said, local talent may cost less than the fees for Rush/Hannity, and if you win the ratings/spot battle then you have a hopefully money making AM station. If one of the few FM stations Wilmington has went news/talk, I could see how that might pull in a younger audience for talk, but apparently the Wilmington FM's are doing well enough both ratings wise and spot wise that it isn't worth it, at this time, to move news/talk to their FM stations. Who knows what a few years will bring.

 

[Holland Cooke]

Blah blah blah, blah blah blah, blah blah blah blah blah.

there may be something to be said for good live and local talk over the same ole same ole Rush/Hannity parade.

As Sarah Palin would chip, "You betcha!"

Personal preferences aside, I've always been professionally "agnostic" when it comes to Rush.
If, in-any-given-market, my client station is the Limbaugh affiliate, he's the biggest star in Talk Radio.
If, in-any-given-market, my client station is the competitor, he's the biggest buffoon in Talk Radio.

Remember "The Fugitive?"
Harrison Ford's character hollers "I didn't kill my wife!"
Tommy Lee Jones' character replies "I don't care!"

For years, I've offered that I'd-rather-play-WITH-Rush-than-against-him.
That's no longer an automatic.
Sure, if I was putting-together one of those upstart FM talkers, and could steal Maha Rushie, it'd be coup.

To us -- inside-the-box -- Rush is an icon.
But to Homer & Marge Listener, he's a punchline, a caricature.
(A GREAT punchline, in "The Bird Cage.")

And that's on-a-GOOD-day!
Today, The Rush Limbaugh Show was a REAL disappointment.

As the Fort Hood rampage was still unfolding -- and some listeners awoke hearing something-they-didn't-know-when-they-went-to-sleep -- that the shooter is ALIVE -- Dittoheads would be SALIVATING for El Rushbo to:

a.) somehow blame this on "liberals," and
b.) accuse "the state-controlled media" of using this sad story as a war protest.

But noooooooooooooo...

Instead, the casual British accent filling-in sounded a-world-away-from what-was-still-unfolding in Texas.
(And before the show ended, another shooter in Orlando!)

His rambling show open offered that "THERE ARE THREE MAJOR STORIES TODAY."
(No. At that moment, there's ONE.)
And the shooting was #3, behind unemployment numbers, and, of course, health care.
But none of THAT came before silly effeminate giggling about cricket scores.

I'm in-the-middle-of a high-profile transition to life-after-Rush in a couple other markets, and was on-the-inside for that Wilmington transition. Here's hoping these soon-to-transition markets emerge as well as WDEL did.

Local programming...what a concept, eh?

HC
www.HollandCooke.com

 

[gr8oldies]

No question, Rush should have been on instead of the sub. No argument against local talent, except you just don't build WLW overnight. You may try and fail numerous times with numerous different hosts. The fact that a talent has his butt sitting in a chair in the hometown after movinfg from across the country may not be any more local than another syndicated show.

 

[DToTheJ]

I doubt at this point Clear Channel would take 980 AM News/talk (even with rating sbelow a 1 share with sports), and even if they did, WHIO AM/FM would keep on sailing with Boortz, Clark Howard and Hannity...

Not so fast, Hannity is now a Clear Channel property, too. Might be a good time for Cox to develop an afternoon drive-time talker as a Plan B.

 

[DToTheJ]

Re: "The right thing" can happen "for the wrong reason."

Look at who the sponsors are of even the top-rated syndicated shows...Rush, Beck, Hannity...lots of sleazy PI type spots (Goldline, that on-line data backup service whose name escapes me, etc.).

That would be Carbonite... And don't forget Zicam!

 

[gr8oldies]

I hear you and yes I have seen local shows go syndicated and have a a watered down feeling. Mike McConnell took his weekday show syndicated from WLW and it wasn't the same. He never got much in the way of clearances and it's now local again. Gary Burbank, also of WLW, was syndicated for a time and dropped in the ratings in Cinncinati (if you're not familiar he did more in the way of comedy than straight talk though he could do it if there was a breaking story). Around that time all the Marge Schott (former Reds owner with a very un-PC mouth) stuff was happening and there was tons of material that wouldn't have translated nationwide. He came back to local-only until his retirement.

Having said that, I'm still not a believer in "local because it's local". I live in the Dayton area and I can't imagine being captivated three hours a day by the ins and outs of Dayton politics.

 

[MikefromDelaware]

Having said that, I'm still not a believer in "local because it's local". I live in the Dayton area and I can't imagine being captivated three hours a day by the ins and outs of Dayton politics.

I agree with you 100%. I live in an even smaller market (Wilmington #76) and a much smaller state Delaware (880,000 population). So if you think Dayton and Ohio politics don't make for compelling radio, believe me Wilmington and Delaware politics, generally, is a real sleeper. Even during an Presidental Election year, Delaware with a whopping 3 electorial votes draws no attention on the national political stage. I've often thought, how cool would it be that the race was so close that it came down to Delaware's 3 electoral college votes (Someday, some writer will do a political thriller using that theme - remember you heard it here first). None of the big candidates come to Delaware unless their plane or helicopter runs out of fuel and has to make an emergency landing at New Castle Airport, or their limo breaks down while traveling through Delaware on I-95. The best we get is their wives or kids doing a whistle stop as they pass through on the way to Philly/Baltimore/ NYC.

For me, at least, what makes the live and local talkers more interesting is WHEN they are talking the national issues, be they liberal or conservative hosts. I, and other locals like me can call in and actually get on the air with an opinion that might differ from the annointed host's. Who has three hours to hang on the phone in the hopes that his "highness" elRusbo will give you 10 seconds, before a hard break, to make your point. The local shows aren't just about the host as it is with Rush and Hannity. That is what makes Limbaugh and Hannity's shows, for my ears, boring. It's all about what they think and no one else's insight matters, in their mind.

Sure I'll put both on for a short time (till first spot break usually), to hear what the "rage of the day" or better yet, "Rage du jour" is for that particular day, and then tune else where.

 

[Holland Cooke]

NOW we're talkin.'

what makes the live and local talkers more interesting is WHEN they are talking the national issues, be they liberal or conservative hosts.

YES!
Great local radio doe NOT mean confining-topics-to arcane local issues.
The station can be locals' opportunity TO SPEAK.
Particularly when topic du jour has the emotional quotient of the Fort Hood rampage.
LOCAL ACCENTS hear each other weigh-in.

I live in Rhode Island, where the-most-important Zip Codes in the (Providence market) Arbitron survey happen-to-be in a county in Massachusetts. For decades, Bristol Co. MA diaries have been "swing votes." Yet local talkers belabor mind-numbling minutia about (I hate this phrase) "pending legislation" in RI. Less Nessman would be proud. And they talk about Massachusetts like-it's-somewhere-else (i.e., traffic reports "UP IN ATTLEBORO...").

This is supposed to be broadcasting, right?