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For DJDAN (and Others) to comment:

Other than a decent 4-book average, what causes advertisers to "take a chance" on something new? I assume it may be the opportunity to get spot frequency at a real decent rate since a new format/concept can't go out with an aggressive rate card? Also do new concepts tend to launch with local advertisers while the national ones shy away until the track record falls in place?

Reason I ask is on the Canada boards I see people flocking to the license application opportunities by suggesting (in about 70% of the cases) that the new license would best serve the community with .... "an AC format". On the KLSY thread (below) the usual suspects have been rounded up (Rock, AC/1, AC/2, etc.) as opportunities rather than offering something new which is more responsive to the real audience challenges that exist today.

I am just curious when some of the main formats are showing slugging following, folks might start considering "new ideas" as a place to look to solve the challenges instead of trying to figure out which of the existing solutions (already in place in most cases on a competitor) will be the holy grail?

If people are abandoning a format on a national basis I'd think the thing to do would be to look at the habits of WHY they are abandoning (rather than just grunting things like "satellite" and "i-Pod" as a knee-jerk explanation). Local radio has so many competitive advantages, but those advantages don't seem to be part of the mix when going after a stuggling situation. Jack = no air talent and trying to win exclusively with music depth (though the depth becomes familiar after awhile so it backfires). Most music stations = pull back on everything non-musical and try to get in there by offering same music product with 12-15 minute stopsets as a bonus to offset the fact the service is "free". News/Talk = expensive to run so let's go with national shows off the bird. Am I sharing Larry's pantry -- or do some of these things kind of fly in the face of common sense?

I know there have been some experiments (mostly Infinity) with new ideas but, like the new TV shows, if they don't perform in 18.5 minutes they get yanked because they aren't profitable. Our audiences don't HOVER over all the signals and look for tweaks and jump to react to a new jingle package or an added song. Habits take a long time...which is why some of the stations that have bad books now and then don't collapse -- much of the core stays with the station out of habit.

Perhaps it's the willingness to change ownership that tugs at some of this. Can't launch a station format on-the-cheap and have it take off in 3-4 weeks? Sell the hummer!! Let that whole thing become someone else's problem! Maybe it's more attractive to make a revenue stream from the investment CD's than the music ones.
 
Well, since the experts haven't replied, I'll give it a shot.


> Other than a decent 4-book average, what causes advertisers
> to "take a chance" on something new? I assume it may be the
> opportunity to get spot frequency at a real decent rate
> since a new format/concept can't go out with an aggressive
> rate card? Also do new concepts tend to launch with local
> advertisers while the national ones shy away until the track
> record falls in place?
>
> Reason I ask is on the Canada boards I see people flocking
> to the license application opportunities by suggesting (in
> about 70% of the cases) that the new license would best
> serve the community with .... "an AC format". On the KLSY
> thread (below) the usual suspects have been rounded up
> (Rock, AC/1, AC/2, etc.) as opportunities rather than
> offering something new which is more responsive to the real
> audience challenges that exist today.

You kind of answer you own question in the first paragraph with what's in the second paragraph.

The ad agencies have seen the gamut of formats. Jack likely was able to, well, Jack up their rates once the first few extraps came out. Still, there are skeptical folks out there.

Like radio, there are plenty of Wall Street-type folks out there who want to get the most ROI through radio advertising.


> I am just curious when some of the main formats are showing
> slugging following, folks might start considering "new
> ideas" as a place to look to solve the challenges instead of
> trying to figure out which of the existing solutions
> (already in place in most cases on a competitor) will be the
> holy grail?

Not sure how to respond to that paragraph.


> If people are abandoning a format on a national basis I'd
> think the thing to do would be to look at the habits of WHY
> they are abandoning (rather than just grunting things like
> "satellite" and "i-Pod" as a knee-jerk explanation). Local
> radio has so many competitive advantages, but those
> advantages don't seem to be part of the mix when going after
> a stuggling situation. Jack = no air talent and trying to
> win exclusively with music depth (though the depth becomes
> familiar after awhile so it backfires). Most music stations
> = pull back on everything non-musical and try to get in
> there by offering same music product with 12-15 minute
> stopsets as a bonus to offset the fact the service is
> "free". News/Talk = expensive to run so let's go with
> national shows off the bird. Am I sharing Larry's pantry --
> or do some of these things kind of fly in the face of common
> sense?

I don't think listeners or advertisers bail out on a format on a national basis. The one exception to that was probably Howard Stern, however.

'Jammin Oldies' never made it to Seattle, so the sales community really hasn't gotten a taste of a Wall Street/Fad format since Jack came on the air (and they are showing signs of a plateau now).

That said, and back to the opening statement in the paragraph, there will be a handful of Jack stations that will hang around. Seattle will likely be one of them, partially because of the stagnation over at 96.5 for several years has left the bar of expectations so low that anything top 15 25 to 54 will make CBS Radio (Infinity) happy.

On another front, radio's slow decline hasn't necessarily been 100% on the shoulders of radio ownership. Let's face it, a lot of the music that has been coming out over the past several years really stinks (one of the reasons of Jack's initial success).


> I know there have been some experiments (mostly Infinity)
> with new ideas but, like the new TV shows, if they don't
> perform in 18.5 minutes they get yanked because they aren't
> profitable. Our audiences don't HOVER over all the signals
> and look for tweaks and jump to react to a new jingle
> package or an added song. Habits take a long time...which
> is why some of the stations that have bad books now and then
> don't collapse -- much of the core stays with the station
> out of habit.

Hence the push for loyalty club memberships. This is one of the things that KMPS did a LONG time ago and is what keeps them so strong.


> Perhaps it's the willingness to change ownership that tugs
> at some of this. Can't launch a station format on-the-cheap
> and have it take off in 3-4 weeks? Sell the hummer!! Let
> that whole thing become someone else's problem! Maybe it's
> more attractive to make a revenue stream from the investment
> CD's than the music ones.

Selling a station involves more than that nowadays. It's more like market franchises, like when Sandusky was trying to corner the female market with KLSY, KRWM and KWJZ years ago. It was much easier and simple to move a station 10 years ago.

I mean, don't you think that Entercom would love to get a hold of KZOK and CBS to get a hold of KBSG? Maybe because KBSG's audience has gotten so older that might not be such the case, but from a franchise standpoint, it makes a ton of sense.
 
> 'Jammin Oldies' never made it to Seattle, so the sales
> community really hasn't gotten a taste of a Wall Street/Fad
> format since Jack came on the air (and they are showing
> signs of a plateau now).


Uh - what about the '80s format on 96.5 6 years ago? All-80s was clearly a fad format.

And remember KBTB? I know - not many do. That was basically a Jammin Oldies station with a lot of obscure stuff.
 
The answers are clear to this question in the posts above!
Agencies want the best value for their advertisers dollars
and are adverse to risk. Nothing like walking back to a client
to explain why a station flipped format or why the station you
spent money on didn't pan out in the ratings department. Small
direct business can afford risk, big agencies can't. Fad or new
formats must prove themselves over four books.

The list of stations that came on, got big numbers and failed in
Seattle is stunning: KJR-FM (70's version) KJR-FM (MIX version)
KBTB (Jammin Oldies Seattle style), KYPT, KROCK, KLSY (MIX version)
and now JACK. Lots of reasons to shy away from fad formats until
they establish themselves over four books. My view is that companies
must believe in a new format at stick with them for two or three years,
not bail at the first sign of trouble.

Will advertisers take risks on a new product? Sure, if the brand
is established over the LONG TERM nationally. For example, WOLF will
get some agency dollars after the first book or two. Why? Because there
is a long history of a second country station doing well in multiple
markets. If KLSY went Active Rock like their sister station KUPD in
Phoenix they would get bought after a book. Why? There is no music
driven rock station left in Seattle. With Adam Corolla going to the
KNDD there is no full-market signal playing male rock in this market in
the morning after January 9th.
 
Good question!

Being on the sales side of the business myself, I can tell you from experience that there are a couple of things that may motivate a media buyer to take a risk on a new format...

1. Ratings guarantee. The Wolf has been doing this from day one. They guarantee a media buyer the delivery of "X" rating within a book or two. If they don't deliver (and I've seen stations having to pay dearly for this), they'll have to provide free spots to equal the guarantee. This is much like TV stations do everyday. Estimate/guarantee ratings and then having to run additional spot for ratings shortfalls.

2. Success and/or failure of the format across the country. Some buyers are looking at Jack as being a success across the country. Whereas others are looking at Jack failures and/or the fact that there have been a number of markets where Jack took off strong and then declined quickly. I heard one buyer recently comment that the typical format on the 96.5 frequency has done just that. Look all the way back to KRXX, Young Country, The Point, K-Rock and now JACK. Is this just the "format of the month".

3. Packaging with other stations in their group. Entercom and Infinity may package in a JACK or WOLF with some of their other successful stations, with the appearance to the buyer as being that they're not really paying all that much for the new station. The sometimes challenging part of this is if and when the station does stand on its own to then break it apart from the other in order to get a justified rate.

4. Providing an alternative. I imagine that a lot of buyers (both local and national) are fed up with paying the kind of rate that KMPS has been demanding and receiving. Great radio station, with great ratings, but if the buyer simply wants to have a presence within the format, then they may choose to take some of their KMPS dollars and throw them over to the Wolf. I imagine that right now for every spot you can buy on KMPS that the Wolf will probably give you 4.

There's my 2 cents worth....
 
> 'Jammin Oldies' never made it to Seattle, so the sales
> community really hasn't gotten a taste of a Wall Street/Fad
> format since Jack came on the air (and they are showing
> signs of a plateau now).

Didn't 95.7 the Beat do a similar format (albeit briefly)?
 
> > 'Jammin Oldies' never made it to Seattle, so the sales
> > community really hasn't gotten a taste of a Wall
> Street/Fad
> > format since Jack came on the air (and they are showing
> > signs of a plateau now).
>
> Didn't 95.7 the Beat do a similar format (albeit briefly)?

Yes.

And I didn't consider that to be a "Jammin' Oldies" station for two reasons:

1. "Jammin' Oldies" was a trademark of AM/FM, later Infinity.

2. There was never any intention to keep it that format, it was just a smokescreen, albeit a longer one than the Hot AC Bob Case put on 95.7 before.
 
> > 'Jammin Oldies' never made it to Seattle, so the sales
> > community really hasn't gotten a taste of a Wall
> Street/Fad
> > format since Jack came on the air (and they are showing
> > signs of a plateau now).
>
>
> Uh - what about the '80s format on 96.5 6 years ago?
> All-80s was clearly a fad format.
>
> And remember KBTB? I know - not many do. That was
> basically a Jammin Oldies station with a lot of obscure
> stuff.

I didn't view the 80s as a fad format because it wasn't quite as gimmicky and cookie-cutter as Jack is right now.

Many stations, more than current Jack stations, had some success with the 80s format. They're not around anymore because many stations still rely on the 80s in their gold library. Thus, the nostaglia for it is severely diminished.

I see your point, I guess it all boils down to individual subjectivity.

And see the earlier post about Jammin' Oldies.
 
> > > 'Jammin Oldies' never made it to Seattle, so the sales
> > > community really hasn't gotten a taste of a Wall
> > Street/Fad
> > > format since Jack came on the air (and they are showing
> > > signs of a plateau now).
> >
> >
> > Uh - what about the '80s format on 96.5 6 years ago?
> > All-80s was clearly a fad format.
> >
> > And remember KBTB? I know - not many do. That was
> > basically a Jammin Oldies station with a lot of obscure
> > stuff.
>
> I didn't view the 80s as a fad format because it wasn't
> quite as gimmicky and cookie-cutter as Jack is right now.
>
> Many stations, more than current Jack stations, had some
> success with the 80s format. They're not around anymore
> because many stations still rely on the 80s in their gold
> library. Thus, the nostaglia for it is severely diminished.
>
>
> I see your point, I guess it all boils down to individual
> subjectivity.
>
> And see the earlier post about Jammin' Oldies.
>

And I see your point about JO being an AMFM thing. My thought was just like there's "Jack-FM" and clones like "Charlie, Bob, Fickle", there was JO and stations like Mojo in Cincinnati (which is still in the format) and KBTB. But I never knew that was a "smokescreen" format - it sure seemed like Mr. Case was giving it his all. Especially in mornings.
 
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