"Future" Prediction About Computers-KRON 1981

[LKellerIII]

On one of these threads recently, a few of us were reminiscing about the beginnings of the internet, and the old CompuServe days. Since I can't remember which thread that was, I've started a new thread to post this link to a 1981 KRON NewsCenter 4 report I stumbled into - about the "primitive" days when newspapers first began delivering content to the few people that owned home computers. From a historical perspective, it's fascinating.

A quote from anchor Rita Channon: "Imagine sitting down with your morning coffee, turning on your home computer, and reading your daily newspaper. It's not as far fetched as it seems..."

"It takes over two hours to receive the full text of the paper over the phone. With an hourly use charge of $5.00, the new tele-paper won't be much competition for the 20 cent street edition."

An ironic statement now that the internet is now putting newspapers out of business.

Rita was a very nice person who used to be a customer at a business I ran in the mid 1980s. I hope she's doing well wherever she is. The report is by meteorologist Steve Newman, a long time Bay Area broadcaster and recently a contributor to Good Morning America.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tymKPTTjrSw

 

[landtuna]

You have to put a time perspective into Rita's statement. When she made that statement it was true. Connection time was far more costly than the paper edition (even though the content might have been more timely than the print).

I remember very well the first time I saw a genuine computer. It was 1959 and several IBMers came to my class in high school to demo their product. It was a fairly large box in the middle of our library with gigantic power cables reaching across the floor and out the second-story window down to a generator roaring away outside.

One of the IBMers sketched out a math problem on a blackboard taking about 15 minutes. Then he instructed his partner to enter that same problem into the computer. The results were returned in about 2 seconds (again, with the generator roaring away right outside the window). We were impressed but looking back it is easy to see how primitive that machine was and how impractical it was in the ordinary workplace.

Flash ahead to circa 1980 and the first portable "personal" computers. Just like their behemoth brother of 1959 they weren't too practical. They could do basic math and some text editing but were very expensive and not very user friendly. As a mainframe programmer of the day I wondered just why anyone would want one when my machine could do so much more (of course I wasn't paying the electric bills either).

Even though I was in the business I didn't have a PC in my home, or Internet connected, until the mid 90's. It just didn't justify the cost or maintenance. And nobody besides myself (read: "computer expert") would use it. Since then, of course, the PC has become an integral part of most households and I can't imagine one without one today.

But you have to remember.....way back when.....when the machines weren't really all that impressive. Just like early radio's and TV's. After the novelty, I can't imagine watching a baseball game on a green 10" screen with snow falling in the middle of August. ;D

 

[LKellerIII]

My timing in posting that old KRON 1981 clip yesterday turned out to be prescient, though I make no claims to ESP.

This very morning the San Francisco Chronicle (one of the 2 SF dailies mentioned in the KRON clip) reported that they will be making 'significant cuts" in staffing, and expect major concessions from their unions. If not, they will close the paper. Hearst lost $50 million on the Chronicle in 2008, primarily due to severely declining ad revenues. Though the worsening economy was certainly a factor, the major factor is the, of course - the internet.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...25/MNO2164F73.DTL&hw=chronicle&sn=001&sc=1000

 

[easttxtv]

Just read a few hours ago that Scripps is pulling the plug on the Rocky Mountain News tomorrow...it would have been 150 years old in April. The article also references the San Fran situation, as well as one of the most recent closures, the 1991 sad loss of the Dallas Times Herald.

 

[LynnW]

I read an article last December that the New York Times will fold sometime this year. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch laid off most of their employees last year. Subscription sales and advertising sales are contracted out. Only a handful of reporters remain. All production (layout, etc.) in done in India. The final product is sent via internet to the Post-Dispatch's new high speed presses for printing locally. They bought the new press to try to make money by doing outside printing jobs.

 

[landtuna]

After being an avid newspaper reader in my youth I stopped subscribing to the paper several decades ago....and it had nothing to do with computers.

The newspaper had turned into nothing more than a day-old collection of stories and features (most of which I wasn't interested in...things like gardening and restaurant reviews). Four column inches of 'stories' with 7/8's of each page covered in ads that I didn't have any interest in either.

Weekends were even worse. The traditional Sunday comics all disappeared and were replaced by junktoons (for the most part) and features like Parade Magazine shrunk from a small mag down to a four-page brochure. The biggest part of the Sunday paper was the classifieds, mostly cars, and unless you were in the market those pages just got tossed, unread.

I suspect we will soon see a pay-to-read online edition(s) for national news with the big city papers becoming more locally focused on things like politics, economics, high school and college sports etc. The era of the big city one-size-fits-all newspaper is probably ending. And, unfortunately, I don't see radio or TV picking up the slack. Most TV news shows are laughable and radio doesn't even make it through the major headlines.

 

[azumanga]

I read an article last December that the New York Times will fold sometime this year.

Where have you read that? The Times, of course, is facing the same economic troubles as most other papers, but not serious enough to fold. No doubt if it was folding, it would've made the world news. And since I haven't read it in MY local paper, I wouldn't believe it until I see for myself.

 

[LynnW]

It was an article on AOL last December. It listed 20 companies that were in danger of failing completely. One of them was Circuit City. The part on the Times said that despite mortgaging its remaining equity in its building, the Times would have to default on its existing loans because its credit lines expire soon and most likely won't be replaced. The article also said that it is extremely unlikely that anyone would come to the resque.

I couldn't find the article. I found a similar article about 15 potential company failures, but it is a totally different list.

 

[LKellerIII]

It was an article on AOL last December. It listed 20 companies that were in danger of failing completely. One of them was Circuit City. The part on the Times said that despite mortgaging its remaining equity in its building, the Times would have to default on its existing loans because its credit lines expire soon and most likely won't be replaced. The article also said that it is extremely unlikely that anyone would come to the resque.

I couldn't find the article. I found a similar article about 15 potential company failures, but it is a totally different list.

In this economy, most big city dailies are in danger of folding. I heard an interesting report on NPR last week. It stated that many or most small city newspapers are still doing OK. These are the papers that were always small in scope, always had small staffs (relying more on AP and other wire services), and never took on huge debt loads.

I don't know about the NY Times, but many big city dailies were sold for HUGE sums in the 1980s and 90s (Los Angeles Times, for instance), and the companies that bought them took on huge debt loads. But because of tanking ad revenues, they're now unable to service the debt without slashing staff and cutting content. This causes readers to drop their subscriptions in ever greater numbers. It's a vicious cycle.

 

[mleach]

Just read a few hours ago that Scripps is pulling the plug on the Rocky Mountain News tomorrow...it would have been 150 years old in April.

While I am sad to see people lose their jobs, in the case of the Rocky Mountain News..that paper sadly had issues. When I was in Denver some months back and while I was at the airport I was readling the four Denver area papers ( Rocky Moutnain News, Denver Post, Westword and the Aurora Sentinel ). As much as I like The Rocky in the past, this time I was very disappointed. For one thing I noticed several news stories that were wrong. In just the one edition of the Rocky Mountain News I read.....

"Denver has the highest unemployment rate in the nation..." ( what about Detroit? Buffalo? ..I think its a safe bet that both cities are having a much harder time in this economy than Denver currently is. )

*...KWGN channel 2 laid off close to 40 thanks to the recession..." ( could it be the fact that KWGN had merged with KDVR were the reasons for the layoffs? Even if the country wasn't in a recession had KDVR and KWGN still merged there still would had been layoffs. )

"..ALL the Colorado Rockies basbeball games are sold out for 2009" ( a quick call to any of the Denver local King Soopers grocery stores who BTW sells Rockies tixs will tell you otherwise ).

"..For the first time in years the airlines are firing people..such as United Airlines... ( ah..the airlines are known to lay people off all the time...and rehire them too..I dated a girl who worked for United and between 2002 and 2008 she was laid off noless than EIGHT times..of course within a few months United always did rehire her back ).

Oh for the record the other papers..none of these stories had appeared there.

It really was like the Rocky Mountain News more/less gave up a long time ago and considering how good that paper was at one time..it really is a shame.