Good Battles in PPM

[djdan]

Went to an agency review of almost four months of PPM data in Seattle. The compression in the Seattle market is quite remarkable, along with the battles in a number of format genres:

Country: This is almost a dead heat over four books 25-54. The Wolf owns younger demos, while KMPS leans much older. During the Spring KMPS led 25-54, in the summer the Wolf leads.
News/Talk: All stations hurt badly by the PPM. KOMO AM/FM is your clear winner with KIRO-FM in real trouble. KTTH and KVI are pretty much non-factors in the 25-54 or 35-64 demographics.
CHR: KBKS has taken the lead 18-34, but KQMV leads 25-54 in the CHR wars. KUBE is still in the mix too, but much worse off. Good battle between these three, much better than in the PPM when KUBE owned it all.
Classic Rock/Hits: What a war between KJR-FM, KZOK and KJAQ. Pick a week and a different station is on top. In April and May it was KJR, June it was KJAQ and in July KZOK. Great radio war
Rock: KISW had an early lead, but now KNDD has jumped into the lead position. PPM has been good to KNDD, plus the station sounds better. (I am now a P-1 again)
AC: KPLZ is the big winner in the PPM, but KRWM remains very strong too and will likely see its biggest numbers ever this holiday season.
Sports: KJR-AM is about where it was, but KIRO AM beats them primarily during Mariner Games. Mariners still draw big numbers. Sports is more of a direct sell and never has won here in Seattle either in the diary or the PPM. We just aren't a big sports town like Detroit, Boston or NY.

Spoken word stations, KMTT, KWJZ all are about where they were in the diary or a bit lower. Everyone though has seen an increase in cume. The result of the presentation is that advertisers have more choice than ever before. While there are a few must-by stations like KJR-FM, KPLZ and JACK for adults, KZOK and JACK for men and KPLZ and KRWM for women, the market has much more variety and opportunity to target advertising, which will be good for radio long-term. Very positive seminar for Seattle radio. There are good stories for almost every station in the market and for the advertisers that buy them.

 

[peetah]

Thanks Dan, for your usual helpful, insightful, non-hyped post.

 

[TakeItFromMe]

Amen to that Brother Dan Finally a post that makes sense about the damn PPM Any talk about the morning battle brudda

 

[TimmyWA]

Amen to that Brother Dan Finally a post that makes sense about the damn PPM Any talk about the morning battle brudda

I wouldn't have noticed it otherwise, but why are there no actual smileys? I see the word smiley but that's it... Anyone?

 

[kyliebastel]

due to abuse by yours truly ... I did apologize after they contacted me, though, so I don't know why they haven't been reinstated yet but fyi

 

[IndigoCoyote]

But Kylie, emoticons are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO 2002! Dead dead dead I tell you.

Just like radio.

 

[Bongwater]

But Kylie, emoticons are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO 2002! Dead dead dead I tell you.

Just like radio.

PRAISE BE BROTHER COYOTE!..........EVERYBODY SAY AMEN!

 

[djdan]

Three responses to the above:

1. I miss the emoticons or whatever they are called. They tend to be the most interesting part of the posts made by those that use them.

2. If radio is so dead, why did CBS just sell its three stations in Portland for 40 million dollars. I guess prices are going back up. Why are radio stocks, on average, up 75% from the start of the year, and why are major market radio cumes nearly 40% higher than previously thought. Radio is not dead it is reinventing itself which has been its savior over many years. The PPM, social networking stations like AMP in LA and changing formats by innovative programmers are the new face of radio today.

3. The original post was about the PPM battles. On the morning front KPLZ wins in the prime female demos. KJAQ and KJR-FM win in the prime male demos. KPLZ wins adults and KBKS wins 18-34. In mornings things seem a bit more defined than in the overall battles. Men seem to prefer less talk and more music while women and young people like a mix of both in the morning.

 

[oaktree]

why did CBS just sell its three stations in Portland for 40 million dollars.

Because someone threw money at them and CBS bit, wanting to get out of the market to put more money in the coffers. If they had been good to keep, CBS would have kept them. They didn't sell "just because." There was a "motivated buyer" loaded with cash and CBS needs ... cash.

Larry Wilson thought it a "fair" price and he has the resources. CBS cut it's losses to "trim the fat" in markets yet to be announced.

The stations may have been worth more years ago or way in the future ... who knows. The time was right, not because it was the feel-good thing to do out of prosperity. CBS is unloading in similar markets to concentrate on its biggest markets ... a long planned effort.

 

[djdan]

Good point. One wonders if Alpha will buy the CBS cluster in Seattle. Similar situation with CBS running with just three FM stations here, having traded away KBKS. Ease of operation for Alpha since the two markets are so close and can share programmers, national sales and even a GM. CBS has been quite clear they want to be in just the top ten markets. Seattle ranks 18th in revenue and about 13th or 14th in size.

 

[IndigoCoyote]

Uh, Dan, that was sarcasm...at least on my part.

 

[djdan]

I realize that, I laughed when I read it. Just wanted to point out for Kylie, Steve Ballmer and others that radio is far from dead. Posters like Kylie, TIFM and others liven up the board with their sarcasm. It is funny at times to watch these folks joke around on the board. Just thought a serious topic might bring out serious discussion too:

1. PPM creating good battles and revenue for radio in Seattle. I am curious whom people see the eventual winners in the Country, News, CHR, Rock, Classic Hits, AC and sport arena.
2. The winners in mornings seem obvious based on ratings but are there other points of view
3. Are major groups getting out of Seattle? CBS has traded stations and sold off in other non-top ten markets.Just sold Portland Friday. What about Clear Channel's small cluster here? Would this be good for radio here? I have to think radio people like Larry Wilson getting back in the game is a good thing.

That's why I floated the post on the PPM battles. Of course it became a discussion about Kylie, THE WOLF and sarcasm. I notice other markets have good dialogues about radio without the emoticons, literally and symbolic. Then again, those discussions can get quite dull.

Probably too much to ask

 

[kyliebastel]

2. If radio is so dead, why did CBS just sell its three stations in Portland for 40 million dollars.

because there's a sucker born every minute

 

[oaktree]

Also, Larry Wilson bought four stations from CBS ... three FMs and one AM. In all actuality, not a bad deal for him considering he just bought two other stations with decent facilities in Portland from Paul Allen for $11-million. Good strategic move as he, now, literally "owns the market."

He sure has plenty of financial experience, have helped found Citadel.

Seattle's a bit bigger chunk to bite off. He has expressed interest in buying other west coast markets, as he has an itch to get back in the business ... but six stations in six months is a pretty big financial deal ... and remember what happened (though far from his fault as he had already unloaded it) to Citadel when they went on a spending spree.

With the economy as it is, it could be smaller "medium" sized markets first, before he heads back to the major metros. At least for now.

 

[equalinercard]

DJ Dan: Thanks for the info and thoughtful post. Could you offer more insight on the news/talk/sports situation, especially the KOMO/KIRO situation.

I know in many markets PPM numbers have seen some stations improve dramatically and some steep declines for others. But I'm wondering if KIRO has set the record for a station with the most dramatic difference between diary numbers and PPM numbers. I still really question their decision to make the shift entirely to FM before seeing even a week's worth of PPM data.

 

[djdan]

Hard to quantify the reason for the KIRO News/Talk decline. From a sales perspective the KIRO AM-FM combo was very smart. The combo had taken the station to number three 25-54 and number two 25-64. KOMO was 14th. When the PPM started three things took place: KIRO News/Talk became an FM only product, KOMO became a combo with a South County FM and the PPM arrived. Hard to say which of the three changes, or if all three led to KIRO dropping to 17th place. KOMO AM/FM moved up to 12th in the prime demos and top 5 35-64. KIRO is just feeling the pain now on the sales side as they lose national and regional buys since the release of the PPM numbers. While KOMO only increase a bit, probably because of the FM, KIRO was cut in half.

One wonders what might have happenned if KIRO had kept the AM/FM combo and added the Mariner numbers to it? I It appears heritage account for something in the PPM, people really do have ingrained listening habits, especially in the older demos. When the 710 News/talk brand left so did the KIRO numbers in the PPM

 

[dialtwister]

agreed