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Great Expectations

R

Radknowski

<font face="times new roman" size="3" color="660033">
From Radio & Records

Questions:

1) Will technology have surpassed satellite by that time?
2) Will enormous debt service force Sirius & XM to merge?
3) Fact or fiction? Sounds like a sunny forecast to me.
4) Will anybody care?
5) How much per month?</font>
 
Stock Anal-ysts

The thrust of the article is that "CIBC World Markets Director and Research Analyst Jason Helfstein (says) that XM and Sirius will likely see a combined 37 million subscribers in 2010.", up from the "current 10.5 million subscribers".

Helfstein goes on to say "He encouraged programmers to 'go local and give us something you can't get elsewhere such as high school football games and community events. Radio must concentrate on local programming to remain relevant.'"


> Questions:
>
> 1) Will technology have surpassed satellite by that time?

Ask the cell phone guys who are rolling out music & video services, and ramping up for high-speed Internet access.

> 2) Will enormous debt service force Sirius & XM to merge?

Gee, now that XM and Sirius both are growing by leaps and bounds, they're STILL losing around $100-million per month. Do you mean that somebody might eventually say "NO MORE?"

> 3) Fact or fiction? Sounds like a sunny forecast to me.

Sunny? I think I'd say BLINDING!

> 4) Will anybody care?

Older people will probably continue to listen to radio, as long as it's simple to operate and relevant to their lives. Kids will continue to swap mp3s.

> 5) How much per month?

Does anybody really care if satellite is real time? I suspect they'll start moving toward a $0.49/podcast model before its over. Want Stern this month? It will coast you about $10.00/month - unless you don't want his "repeat" shows...
 
we have met the enemy

Well said, Rox...

It is ironic that the forecast for sat radio is similar to Terrestrial.

1: Consolidation
2: 'Voice-tracking' (taped programs)
3: Competition from 'new media'

I think the two will eventually merge, in similar vain to the telecommunications industry (Verizon/MCI, ATT/Cingular)

However it will depend on who lives @ 1600 Pennsylvania boulevard as well as the FCC how everything shakes outs.

>
>
> > Questions:
> >
> > 1) Will technology have surpassed satellite by that time?
>
> Ask the cell phone guys who are rolling out music & video
> services, and ramping up for high-speed Internet access.
>
> > 2) Will enormous debt service force Sirius & XM to merge?
>
> Gee, now that XM and Sirius both are growing by leaps and
> bounds, they're STILL losing around $100-million per month.
> Do you mean that somebody might eventually say "NO MORE?"
>
> > 3) Fact or fiction? Sounds like a sunny forecast to me.
>
> Sunny? I think I'd say BLINDING!
>
> > 4) Will anybody care?
>
> Older people will probably continue to listen to radio, as
> long as it's simple to operate and relevant to their lives.
> Kids will continue to swap mp3s.
>
> > 5) How much per month?
>
> Does anybody really care if satellite is real time? I
> suspect they'll start moving toward a $0.49/podcast model
> before its over. Want Stern this month? It will coast you
> about $10.00/month - unless you don't want his "repeat"
> shows...
>
 
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