GSO/W-S/HP WINTER BOOK

[dittohead1]

And the big winner is...

Majic 94.1, as they take advantage of the oldies hole and double their 12+
94.5 as the Spanish thing is working in the Triad

MAG DOWN
TQR DOWN (Wolf is flat but, they're hangig in there and honestly, they're probably ahead of where most people though they would be at this point)
QMG DOWN (Kiss is up more than half a pt., but QMG more than doubles them 12+ and QMG wins the 12+ beauty contest)
Simon is up slightly; KZL down for the 2nd straight book (but KZL is still about a point ahead of SMW)
KRR, the Buzzard, and ZTK all down (indicating that the males may have been undersampled)
SJS rebounds slightly to tie their new FM sister station

Breakdowns come out tomorrow. This is a weird one. Thoughts?

 

[stench]

And the big winner is...

Majic 94.1, as they take advantage of the oldies hole and double their 12+
94.5 as the Spanish thing is working in the Triad

MAG DOWN
TQR DOWN (Wolf is flat but, they're hangig in there and honestly, they're probably ahead of where most people though they would be at this point)
QMG DOWN (Kiss is up more than half a pt., but QMG more than doubles them 12+ and QMG wins the 12+ beauty contest)
Simon is up slightly; KZL down for the 2nd straight book (but KZL is still about a point ahead of SMW)
KRR, the Buzzard, and ZTK all down (indicating that the males may have been undersampled)
SJS rebounds slightly to tie their new FM sister station

Breakdowns come out tomorrow. This is a weird one. Thoughts?

The Buzzard sucks. The programming is awful. TQR is down probably more than CC would like. Programming by remote control is probably a bust of an idea. All of this of course is based on diary methodology which is a big waste of money (look at Philly PPM), so why are we even talking about it. KISS is not bad, kudos considering what they have to work with. Spanish Oldies is probably bigger than what is showing. GSO not a talk market. Just an opinion of course.

 

[realradioplayer]

here is the deal from the advances

25-54

M-F 6a-7p
WQMG
WPAW
WTQR
WSMW
WMAG
WTHZ
WKRR
WGBT
WKZL
WMKS
WJMH
WVBZ

 

[MaskMan]

How many THOUSANDS of dollars has Entercom spent on The WALF to come up with a flat book??? Not good news at all! AND, to say WTQR is "probably" down more than CC would like is the understatement of the year! Can you say "like a rock?". It's definitely a trend and CC is probably in a panic!

I kind of figured that WZTK's ratings were inflated in the last book. They're not a bad station, but I think the sampling went in their favor in the Fall Book. Most likely they're now about where their true ratings are.

WTHZ had a great book...no surprise there, but give it some time and their owner will figure out a way to sabotage it...he always does. They'll probably let their PD leave or something. Their Morning Show sucks and they need to make a change or continue letting it drag down the rest of the day.

 

[dittohead1]

I kind of figured that WZTK's ratings were inflated in the last book. They're not a bad station, but I think the sampling went in their favor in the Fall Book. Most likely they're now about where their true ratings are.

If this is where their "true"ratings are then they suck and they still can't catch even the buzzard, they suck and curtis should take them spanish or anything else.

 

[XTalker]

One thing you have to consider about ZTK is they sell using numbers from GSO and Raleigh! Combined cume is about 130,000 which is healthy. I notice they seem to be selling some more Triad business - I suspect the combo with SJS helps that.

Frankly, if you combine the SJS share and the ZTK share, they would be fifth in the market. That is likely the way they will be sold. Add WMFR's half a point and they move to 4th! Creative numbers sellers can make the combo very competitive for the adult demos.

SJS has a lot of room to improve. Hannity will help considerably. They need help from 6-7PM. Get rid of some of that network inventory (and junk features that go with it) that gets dumped into that hour. CBS pays nice compensation, but they make you carry a lot of inventory!

ZTK will always have trouble in the GSO metro because of signal issues in Forsyth County. Too many places where they disappear. If they could fix that, it could make a significant difference in the metro.

 

[SuperCFL]

The story on the numbers that make the big bucks is right there in those 25-54, 6A to 7 PM numbers.

'QMG is still on top, The Wolf *beat* 'TQR (in its first complete book), Simon had its best numbers ever, Majic (WTHZ) exploded into fire and light, and Kiss is up.

CC's two big hitters took a hit this time. It'll be interesting to see how the formatic adjustments on WMAG play out over the next couple of books.

 

[radiochickgso]

I thought it was really interesting to see how many stations were "tied" in the ratings. Every major demo , except teens and women 25-54 have ties in the top 5 ratings rankers full week. In some demos you have a clear number 1 and then everybody else is tied for 2nd or two and three are tied and then 4 and 5 are tied ... I've never seen the ratings quite as tight as this. This book is interesting on a lot of different levels.

 

[jcolletta275]

The Wolf *beat* 'TQR (in its first complete book)

That's the single biggest story here! CC has to be in full red alert at this point... if The Wolf is beating TQR in the money demo this early on, CC knows they're in deep crap, and that's just about the time they start trying to fix things. That's when they usually fall apart.

Can The Wolf take out TQR? I'd consider putting money on it!

 

[XTalker]

Don't put all your money on one book. It is normal for a format change to get a nice bump in the first full book. Question is, can they sustain it! Country fans will sample something else, but will they stay away from their favorite for long?

Will certainly be interesting.

 

[nextline]

Could the Wolf take out TQR? probably...given enough time and money. Will they take out TQR? Doubt it-at least not any time soon. Will TQR sit back and let them steal the cookies? Don't bet on it...All that $100k+ promotional money bought them was- [drumroll here]- a flat book. Now CC is in full attack mode. (and TQR still has the Golden Ace...Nascar...) while the Wolf has........well, deeeep pockets I hope- or a plan B.

 

[radiochickgso]

I'd call this the Wolf's second book ... If I remember right Oldies93 / the wolf started stunting 4 days into the Fall book and flipped within a few days .... I'd say the Fall o6 book was their first book .... just my opinion. Look at the sharing between The Wolf and WTQR in the Fall ... confirms 93.1 listeners in the Fall were country listeners.

 

[jcolletta275]

I understand the station's still young, but I think The Wolf can, and maybe will, pull it off. Firstly, I've been saying since I first heard the station in 2000 that TQR was an open target... and an easy one at that. I don't care how much promotion they do or whether or not they have NASCAR... if the programming stays as lame as it has been for as long as I've known the station, they're still an easy target. If it only took two books for The Wolf to beat TQR in the money demo, something tells me The Wolf is doing something right. And as I said before, when stations start tweaking to adjust to new competition, that's when things seemingly more often than not begin falling apart. If The Wolf plays the game right and exploits every flaw in TQR they can find (I can think of quite a few off the top of my head), they'll end up winning this competition.

 

[salezclozer]

With WSMW ahead of WMAG, it looks like it's time to spin the ole' format wheel on 98.7, right? Time to get "MOVIN'"!

 

[nextline]

Josh C,
IF TQR were to sit back and let the chips fall where they may, you might be right. But can you seriously think TQR will do that? Part of your reasoning is correct in that EVERY market leader is a target. But TQR was and is a pretty good station by any measure. And you can ignore the Nascar factor if you wish, but it's arguably the biggest listener draw in all of radio- especially country radio. When you listen carefully to both stations, not much difference. Being just like the market leader won't beat them. The mere fact that they're already flat in only their second book signals listeners are realizing there's nothing really different about Wolf, except maybe a trendy name... You'll see those Nascar numbers assert themselves in the next book.

 

[XTalker]

Of course, there is a chink in the NASCAR armor - TQR does NOT have the PRN races! That is about one third of the season including key races in NC and in the Chase! TQR made a major mistake when they let WSJS get PRN away from them (it's been about seven seasons now!).

That said, TQR is running lots of promotion for their morning show and will continue to fight back.

I haven't seen a Miller Kaplan in a while, but TQR has always been a target because of the billing - which dominates the market.

 

[johnqdoe]

How can you have a station as big as WTQR and not have the PRogram Director in-house?

 

[jcolletta275]

While I agree that The Wolf still has to step things up if they're going to beat TQR, TQR isn't a target because they're the top station in the market, they're a target because they're weak. I feel absolutely no energy coming from the station. There's nothing about it that excites me when I listen to it. NASCAR isn't the key to ratings in country radio (it helps, but it's not the be-all end-all of formatics keys). Entertaining content is, and I don't hear much entertaining content out of TQR.

 

[nextline]

The Triad radio audience certainly doesn't agree with you. "Weak" stations generally aren't #1 (with double digit ratings) in a given market for decades at a stretch. TQR has beaten all challengers so far. No,Nascar isn't the end all of ratings, but I'd sure rather have 'em than not. And even you have to admit CC operates FAR more successful stations (pick whatever format you wish) than Entercom, so they obviously know how to win.... now all that being said- will the Wolf survive? probably. Will they beat TQR long term- the odds don't look so good.

 

[rf_chaser]

With the amount of TV ad time TQR IS STILL BUYING, they are running VERY SCARED. You don't continue to buy 2 ads in a stop set AFTER your book unless you are trying to shore up for your NEXT book. You can't spin that any other way unless CC is trying to empty the coffers before new owners come in.