I see one or two large buyers and Entercom will have to sell off something if they want WSJS. Not sure if WSJS can bring-in the ratings without 1200 in Alamance County and Entercom has a nice urban cluster I'm sure they don't want to break-up? COX (#60) Greenville-Spartanburg has only two (WJMZ 107.3 and WHZT 98.1 - both urban formated). I haven't heard any rumors outside this forum of what could happen, but COX wouldn't be a bad fit for WSJS. It would be a great outlet for them and I'm sure they want in through TV, FM or AM. It gives them a solid performer to possibly build on in the Triad Market.
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I think Cox is not in the picture! Entercom is likely. They could dispose of their other AMs and be fine. I'd trade that billing any day of the week.
Centennial is where Nemenz has been since leaving WZTK. If he were involved, look for Hamilton to be gone. They used to be great friends, but not so much in the last seven years or so. Howard can be tough, but he is fair. Always found him to be certain of what he wants, and not afraid to let his staff know. Lets department heads do their jobs!
If it were Centennial, I think he would be GM, but would hire a strong sales manager and ops manager to take care of the day to day operation. His involvement with Lynchburg and other markets they might acquire would prevent him from being a real hands on GM.
Centennial would be good for the station and the community. Only downside I could see is relationship with Yankees might not be the same without the CBS umbrella!
My 2 cents!
Centennial is where Nemenz has been since leaving WZTK. If he were involved, look for Hamilton to be gone. They used to be great friends, but not so much in the last seven years or so. Howard can be tough, but he is fair. Always found him to be certain of what he wants, and not afraid to let his staff know. Lets department heads do their jobs!
If it were Centennial, I think he would be GM, but would hire a strong sales manager and ops manager to take care of the day to day operation. His involvement with Lynchburg and other markets they might acquire would prevent him from being a real hands on GM.
Centennial would be good for the station and the community. Only downside I could see is relationship with Yankees might not be the same without the CBS umbrella!
My 2 cents!
I'm not saying they are or will be, but if...
They would have an instant money maker with WSJS. They can make conservative AM talk work and work well. They could build on this with a purchase of WTHZ 94.1, WBRF 98.1 (it will take a very good offer - or you will hear "not for sale") and make an offer for WZTK 101.1, if Curtis is willing to let go of it? Take advantage of an opening for another urban with 94.1. I don't think you need Randolph County or Burlington to be a competitor with an urban. 98.3 WIST could also be available for the right price, but has a very limited signal. Still there are some things you could do with it, like WSJS-FM 98.3 or Praise 98.3 (urban gospel). COX could also make more than one talker work in this market with great programing. It's a good opening to get their foot in the market and maybe do something again in the not too distant future to build on their cluster. Right now 94.1 is still a very good property that could be for sale, if the offer is right? WZTK is likely second best in signal and WBRF third of possibilities for the right price. I don't see too high a price for these properties in the Triad market though. The Triad is just one of ten markets the buyers will look at and the Triad is likely not the one the buyer will pay the most attention to.
Cumulus is also a very good guess, since they do want to expand and the Triad could look very attractive to them. Of course the Triad is just one of ten markets this buyer will make an offer for. Austin, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Columbus, Fresno, Kansas City, Memphis, Rochester, San Antonio and Winston-Salem are what's for sale. I do believe Cumulus could and likely WILL make an offer for the CBS properties? I tend to think of Lincoln as a seller more than a buyer. They say it's good name reconition, but they aren't aggressive enough in growing their footprint and I could see them as a seller in the future. You know... focus on our core business of insurance.
How many of those outside the business know Lincoln Financial Group owns 1110 WBT or Atlanta's Star 94? I'm sure the name reconition isn't that great. ;D
They would have an instant money maker with WSJS. They can make conservative AM talk work and work well. They could build on this with a purchase of WTHZ 94.1, WBRF 98.1 (it will take a very good offer - or you will hear "not for sale") and make an offer for WZTK 101.1, if Curtis is willing to let go of it? Take advantage of an opening for another urban with 94.1. I don't think you need Randolph County or Burlington to be a competitor with an urban. 98.3 WIST could also be available for the right price, but has a very limited signal. Still there are some things you could do with it, like WSJS-FM 98.3 or Praise 98.3 (urban gospel). COX could also make more than one talker work in this market with great programing. It's a good opening to get their foot in the market and maybe do something again in the not too distant future to build on their cluster. Right now 94.1 is still a very good property that could be for sale, if the offer is right? WZTK is likely second best in signal and WBRF third of possibilities for the right price. I don't see too high a price for these properties in the Triad market though. The Triad is just one of ten markets the buyers will look at and the Triad is likely not the one the buyer will pay the most attention to.
Cumulus is also a very good guess, since they do want to expand and the Triad could look very attractive to them. Of course the Triad is just one of ten markets this buyer will make an offer for. Austin, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Columbus, Fresno, Kansas City, Memphis, Rochester, San Antonio and Winston-Salem are what's for sale. I do believe Cumulus could and likely WILL make an offer for the CBS properties? I tend to think of Lincoln as a seller more than a buyer. They say it's good name reconition, but they aren't aggressive enough in growing their footprint and I could see them as a seller in the future. You know... focus on our core business of insurance.
How many of those outside the business know Lincoln Financial Group owns 1110 WBT or Atlanta's Star 94? I'm sure the name reconition isn't that great. ;DWSJS is certainly positive cash flow for whomever. And while certain people there would tell you there is no fat, they operate a large business office for just one station. Economy of scale improves the profit figure to an even better one.
This could end up being a real surprise, since it is more than likely to be a station swap rather than cash deal! And, you could see the initial buyer, break up the group and sell SJS to someone local - for the right amount of cash! Tax implication would be different for the buyer than CBS.
Think of companies in markets where CBS would like to be and they are not maxed out!
Here's a deal for Mr. WS - with your riches and my talent, we could buy it and make millions! :~)
This could end up being a real surprise, since it is more than likely to be a station swap rather than cash deal! And, you could see the initial buyer, break up the group and sell SJS to someone local - for the right amount of cash! Tax implication would be different for the buyer than CBS.
Think of companies in markets where CBS would like to be and they are not maxed out!
Here's a deal for Mr. WS - with your riches and my talent, we could buy it and make millions! :~)
I wish...I still remember the price SFX paid back in the mid 90's when they purchased 1230 WFMR ($2 million!) and 100.3 WVBZ ($5 million). It was the poorly rated Fox back then in an attempt to take on Rock 92. Then it flipped to Country and then back to classic rock. What do you think WSJS, WMFR and WSML would sell for today? If they were sold seperate, it would be in that package. I could see the swap you talk about happening, but a buyer like Cumulus could hold on to the Triad market properties. I think they will be off the radar in the deal, unless the buyer is "over" in the market and has to sell or someone makes an offer. The best move for WSJS would put them back in the hands of Clear Channel (not likely) or in the hands of COX, which could have the properties to trade for and the cash to buy. Tax is certainly a factor here, with a buy.
I still believe a small cluster could be built in the market with two to four FMs and three AMs. It would be similar to the Greenville market, but with greater profit potential. The growth of the market isn't as healthy as other markets, with an industrial based economy. I would like to see the price paid. When Winston-Salem hits the top 100 largest cities list at #87 with-in the next few weeks (pending court decision on annexation), then you will see some strong growth potential from retail, hospitality, etc., looking to enter or build on the top 100 markets.
As you probably know, the number at one time was $35-million. I doubt it would bring that in anything other than a swap kinda deal! Based on what some stations in the market sold for over the last four or five years I think $15-20-million cash would be be realistic. Billing is a down a bit, but in 2004 with a full staff and a big political year the number was something like $3.5 million local! Don't think it has been near that pace since.
I would love to see a local owner - but don't think that will happen. The Nemenz group could make it happen. Add Hits 94, and WBRF and you have a decent cluster. I'd leave BRF along. It makes pretty good money and is not a very expensive operation. Hits would have to move to 5th and Summit - not a big deal. Wouldn't do much with that format except beef up its presence in the market! Needs to promotion!
Another interesting possibility would be Dick buys it. That would make a pretty strong demographic cluster!
You are so right about Winston-Salem. Greensboro gets a lot of coverage over their new ballpark, but the downtown WS area is booming. In the next year you will even see a full blown grocery store in the downtown area. Lots of high dollar residential and plans for some "afforable" housing downtown. Retail will follow the residential. I think there is a great potential for growth in the town's economy!
I would love to see a local owner - but don't think that will happen. The Nemenz group could make it happen. Add Hits 94, and WBRF and you have a decent cluster. I'd leave BRF along. It makes pretty good money and is not a very expensive operation. Hits would have to move to 5th and Summit - not a big deal. Wouldn't do much with that format except beef up its presence in the market! Needs to promotion!
Another interesting possibility would be Dick buys it. That would make a pretty strong demographic cluster!
You are so right about Winston-Salem. Greensboro gets a lot of coverage over their new ballpark, but the downtown WS area is booming. In the next year you will even see a full blown grocery store in the downtown area. Lots of high dollar residential and plans for some "afforable" housing downtown. Retail will follow the residential. I think there is a great potential for growth in the town's economy!
XTalker said:
I always thought WS had a better downtown than GSO. WS seems more like a city should...GSO is mostly sprawl. Not that WS doesn't have it's share...but you know what I mean. The downtown area of WS has ALWAYS had things goin...Summer on Trade, NC School of the Arts, 4th St Jazz etc etc. GSO tries things liek that...but for the most part, they didn't work near as well as the WS Events. Now the new ballpark is changing that. A TON of new places have spurred growth downtown. We'll see how it all pans out, but WS does have tons of potential too. What's the old joke??? What would WS be without the arts???? Answer : Greensboro
it would seem there are some good thoughts and lots of guess work...here's the real deal and you'll see it announced within the next couple of weeks.
Clear Channel IS the buyer...look for hamilton to be out..they didn't like him the first time around....look for the ride to be out..seems nobody likes her this time...look for other noticeable changes....
Clear Channel IS the buyer...look for hamilton to be out..they didn't like him the first time around....look for the ride to be out..seems nobody likes her this time...look for other noticeable changes....
It wouldn't surprise me! CC makes more sense to me than any of the other prospects - short of a local group.
One key in my mind - don't move it out of Winston-Salem! While the station tries to be a Triad station, it is really a Winston-Salem one - and that's not a bad thing. There is a big pile to money to be had.
Meanwhile. the GM, GSM, office manager, and PD should make sure their resumes are up to date!
One key in my mind - don't move it out of Winston-Salem! While the station tries to be a Triad station, it is really a Winston-Salem one - and that's not a bad thing. There is a big pile to money to be had.
Meanwhile. the GM, GSM, office manager, and PD should make sure their resumes are up to date!
CCU likes to own their own buildings and would probably move the station when the lease is up...I agree with the GM,GSM,PD Bus. Mgr. etc. needing to start looking.
Do you think they'd try to bring Nemenz back...don't know much about him...comments seem to be positive but I don't understand if he drives people away how could he be good...didn't he take them to the highest levels...even to the point where CCU had to drop WSJS because they were over the limit and now CCU has 5FM's are aren't over the revenue limit.
Do you think they'd try to bring Nemenz back...don't know much about him...comments seem to be positive but I don't understand if he drives people away how could he be good...didn't he take them to the highest levels...even to the point where CCU had to drop WSJS because they were over the limit and now CCU has 5FM's are aren't over the revenue limit.
First, I don't believe they own the building they are in in Greensboro. I do believe they have a long term lease and right much control. I may be wrong, but I think that is the case.
Second, I wasn't suggesting they have to remain at 5th & Summit - in fact, the should find a storefront downtown on 4th Street and put some studios and a sales office there (for all their stations) and keep the WS presence. It would be a huge mistake to move WSJS out of Winston-Salem.
Third, CC might like to have Nemenz back, but I don't think he wants any part of Big Radio anymore. As for driving people away, my experience with Howard was he only drove those away who didn't want to work! He has some interesting quirks, but can quite delightful to deal with. Those who ran afoul of him most often wanted to be their own boss and didn't want to do things his way! I could tell you more, but why give away the secrets to working for a demanding boss?
They had to drop WSJS because they were over the limit of market revenue allowed under anti-trust laws. At the time of the merger between CC and AM/FM, the combined billing would have been about 43% of the market. DOJ allows up to 40%. Long story short, they had to divest of about 3-million in annual billing, WSJS was the only single station that would achieve that (WMFR was a throw-away). So they sold WSJS and kept the four FMs. The would have liked nothing better than to have been able to keep SJS (not that I can speak for CC 0 but with the billing it is a no-brainer).
5 FMs does not put them over the limit - and even it it did, WSJS is an AM and the count is different, I do believe. Some of your techies might weigh in on that one.
Second, I wasn't suggesting they have to remain at 5th & Summit - in fact, the should find a storefront downtown on 4th Street and put some studios and a sales office there (for all their stations) and keep the WS presence. It would be a huge mistake to move WSJS out of Winston-Salem.
Third, CC might like to have Nemenz back, but I don't think he wants any part of Big Radio anymore. As for driving people away, my experience with Howard was he only drove those away who didn't want to work! He has some interesting quirks, but can quite delightful to deal with. Those who ran afoul of him most often wanted to be their own boss and didn't want to do things his way! I could tell you more, but why give away the secrets to working for a demanding boss?
They had to drop WSJS because they were over the limit of market revenue allowed under anti-trust laws. At the time of the merger between CC and AM/FM, the combined billing would have been about 43% of the market. DOJ allows up to 40%. Long story short, they had to divest of about 3-million in annual billing, WSJS was the only single station that would achieve that (WMFR was a throw-away). So they sold WSJS and kept the four FMs. The would have liked nothing better than to have been able to keep SJS (not that I can speak for CC 0 but with the billing it is a no-brainer).
5 FMs does not put them over the limit - and even it it did, WSJS is an AM and the count is different, I do believe. Some of your techies might weigh in on that one.
L
longjohnmaroon
Guest
I could be wrong, but it seems that about a year ago I heard that CC bought the building they are in on Hiighway 68. Their landlord went out of business and had to sell I think. I know that recently I drove by there and saw a different name on the sign out near the Highway. I think it used to be Pai. Couldn't read the new name quick enough.
One more point. CBS has a lease on the existing building and I suspect it will accompany the station. Buyer would have to honor the lease or try to break it. CBS will not keep it (same with space in High Point - WMFR), I could see WMFR being donated to someone - a college or a church - but that could be a whole new thread!
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longjohnmaroon
Guest
Moving the SJS studios to their GSO building might not be the wisest thing to do, but If CC owns that big building in GSO, I just can't see them trying to maintain two separate broadcasting studios. They would have to duplicate so much to operate in two locations. Too much support staff. The cost would be huge. That's my opinion anyway. I think the same scenario would apply to Entercom if they buy it.
The 40% rule has nothing to do with the number of stations but rather the share of market revenue. Revenue is all relative to what others are doing. If you have access to Miller Kaplan you could probably figure it out.
Some financial assumptions:
* WSJS billing is down over the last two years.
* CC cluster billing is not what is was. TQR is down considerably in the last six years. WMAG is doing OK, but not setting the world on fire. Spanish is too new to be a significant amount (although it will be).
* Other groups doing better - I suspect Entercom is up considerably with the recent ratings performance of JMH and QMG. MQX also does well. I suspect Simon is better than it was.
* Dick seems to be doing OK.
Point is, when CC couldn't make the 40% number five or six years ago, it was only by a few percentage points. Since 100% never changes, a slight decline in one group, and a slight rise in two or three other groups, can easily put them below 40%.
Just remember, its about revenue not number of stations at this point!
Some financial assumptions:
* WSJS billing is down over the last two years.
* CC cluster billing is not what is was. TQR is down considerably in the last six years. WMAG is doing OK, but not setting the world on fire. Spanish is too new to be a significant amount (although it will be).
* Other groups doing better - I suspect Entercom is up considerably with the recent ratings performance of JMH and QMG. MQX also does well. I suspect Simon is better than it was.
* Dick seems to be doing OK.
Point is, when CC couldn't make the 40% number five or six years ago, it was only by a few percentage points. Since 100% never changes, a slight decline in one group, and a slight rise in two or three other groups, can easily put them below 40%.
Just remember, its about revenue not number of stations at this point!
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