Has HD radio already failed?

[clouseau]

One of that falacies put forth by the Anti HD "group" (They don't actually have enough in numbers to be a crowd) is that HD has failed. HD has not met Expectations. HD isn't being accepted. HD doesn't have The Big Mo. No one knows about it. People think they already have it.

They compare HD to XM and Sirius. They gleefully procalim that HD is DOA. That's going to be tough to do because HD Hasn't yet arrived for most people.

According to the FCC there are... 6252 FM station in the US, 2790 Additional EDucational FM stations, 4751 AM stations, 4087 FM translators and boosters and 746 LPFM stations. http://www.fcc.gov/mb/audio/totals/bt060930.html.

Thats 18,626 radio stations in the US. Out of those, 1131 are in HD http://www.ibiquity.com/hd_radio/hdradio_find_a_station That's 6.07 percent. And that's pretty low. That's because there's no money in it yet. There's no definite standard yet. There's limited or no HD service to a great many people yet. It's still EXPERIMENTAL. These stations WILL offer HD someday. But it's just getting started.

Imagine the success of XM or Sirius if you could only receive 7 percent of the channels? Would 12 channels really get people excited? And a bunch of the Anti HD group don't understand that people in Amarillo, Lubbuck, Midland/Odessa, Tyler, Victoria and Texarkana (Just to name a few representative texas cities) don't have ANY stations yet. And people in Corpus Christi and Beaumont have 1 each. Remember there's a lot of fly over country that will require time to get online. There's a lot of us that live in places where we still don't have all 4 network stations in HD yet on TV. It'll come.

Remember how long FM stereo took to get everywhere. It's not like you can launch a couple of satelites and sell a receiver anywhere in the US. Where there are stations in an area there are beginning to be radios available.

As a licensee, no one has contacted me about buying HD (Which is good 'cuz there's no way I'd ever spend money for an "Experiment".) Now when it's approved I'll be there. I suspect most of the other 95% of the station owners feel the same way. But it's not failing quite yet.

Clouseau

 

[Mike Walker]

One of our local FM stations went stereo in 1982...two full decades after the adoption of the Zenith fm stereo system. Why, FM Stereo must've been a complete failure!

 

[700WLW]

One of that falacies put forth by the Anti HD "group" (They don't actually have enough in numbers to be a crowd) is that HD has failed. HD has not met Expectations. HD isn't being accepted. HD doesn't have The Big Mo. No one knows about it. People think they already have it.
Clouseau

Even JERRY DEL COLLIANO knows HD Radio is DOA:

"Dead Technology Walking"

http://insidemusicmedia.blogspot.com/2006/11/dead-technology-walking.html

 

[vsa]

Clouseau wrote: "...HD Hasn't yet arrived for most people..."

According to the HD Radio Alliance: "Over 1,000 U.S. radio stations are currently broadcasting in HD, reaching 81% of the population and over 230 million people." I believe 81% qualifies as "most".

Mike Walker wrote: "...One of our local FM stations went stereo in 1982...FM Stereo must've been a complete failure!"

HD Radio has been justifiably beaten to death here. There's no need to rehash what is available in the archives here. It's only useful for local DXing. Let HD Radio rest in peace.

 

[clouseau]

Clouseau wrote: "...HD Hasn't yet arrived for most people..."

According to the HD Radio Alliance: "Over 1,000 U.S. radio stations are currently broadcasting in HD, reaching 81% of the population and over 230 million people." I believe 81% qualifies as "most".

Mike Walker wrote: "...One of our local FM stations went stereo in 1982...FM Stereo must've been a complete failure!"

HD Radio has been justifiably beaten to death here. There's no need to rehash what is available in the archives here. It's only useful for local DXing. Let HD Radio rest in peace.

6.07% of all radio stations broadcast in HD. If we WERE to accept that 81% can get a station - SO WHAT. As a nation, we are getting 6.07% or it's potential. How would you like your FM dial with one station available? 2 in larger markets? That's about 6% of what FM is now. Would that make FM a bad idea?? How about 6% of your cable stations. There'd be little excitement over cable if there were 6 channels. Right now expanded basic cable is around 100 channels. Many systems are less. Your line of thinking is just laughable. But more than laughable, it's flawed. HD radio is not running under it's business plan. It's not rolled out to even 7% of the stations. It's not getting the programming attention it needs because in non revenue. Most people don't know what it is. Radios are still many times more expensive than they will be. 'Pronounce HD's death away. It's pretty hard to have a death when it hasn't been permanantly authorized yet. But I guess not in your world.

Clouseau

 

[vsa]

Clouseau. Give it up. Feel free to waste your energy on HD Radio. It's still a "horse-and-buggy" technology using battery-powered headlights and a horn in a motorized vehicle world.

 

[clouseau]

Clouseau. Give it up. Feel free to waste your energy on HD Radio. It's still a "horse-and-buggy" technology using battery-powered headlights and a horn in a motorized vehicle world.

Looks like we maybe only got 6% of the answer to that post.

Clouseau

 

[Tom Wells]

IBOC FM should be used as a "diversity" alternate feed, to augment multipath, impulse and other problems.
It works as a stand-alone mode, but imagine user-selectable blend to diversity reception for the analog, as stereo-to-mono works.
I am admittedly a luddite, but with DSP, appropriate delay, perfect synchronization between streams, I would accept gladly the
"zizzly" effects as heard in FM IBOC as a perfectly reasonable "fill-in" for "dropouts" in the FM.
If switch-selectable, the user could select analog only, digital-only, or diversity with either mode as primary, and thresholds for blending.

This would be a fine engineering challenge, but doable. Diversity reception was perfected in AM in the 30's.
In real-time. With some delay and modern DSP it should be no problem at all.
But would ibiquity have bothered to develop a "support" technology? No. No money in it.
That's why I'm suspicious of their motives. THEY should be getting rich in radio, when no one else is?

The AM, I feel, was a failure in concept. Would definitely work as a digital-only mode in a new band, but as a hybrid, the result
is a monster child, deformed and should be killed in regret for the good hopes, but mercifully quick, to minimize its painful existance.

 

[clouseau]

IBOC FM should be used as a "diversity" alternate feed, to augment multipath, impulse and other problems.
It works as a stand-alone mode, but imagine user-selectable blend to diversity reception for the analog, as stereo-to-mono works.
I am admittedly a luddite, but with DSP, appropriate delay, perfect synchronization between streams, I would accept gladly the
"zizzly" effects as heard in FM IBOC as a perfectly reasonable "fill-in" for "dropouts" in the FM.
If switch-selectable, the user could select analog only, digital-only, or diversity with either mode as primary, and thresholds for blending.

Ok I understand and agree with this...

This would be a fine engineering challenge, but doable. Diversity reception was perfected in AM in the 30's.
In real-time. With some delay and modern DSP it should be no problem at all.
But would ibiquity have bothered to develop a "support" technology? No. No money in it.
That's why I'm suspicious of their motives. THEY should be getting rich in radio, when no one else is?

The AM, I feel, was a failure in concept.

Agreed. I'd love to see if the Kahn Radio's really work.

(it) Would definitely work as a digital-only mode in a new band, but as a hybrid, the result
is a monster child, deformed and should be killed in regret for the good hopes, but mercifully quick, to minimize its painful existance.

Well put.

Care to try again on AM Ibiquity?

Clouseau

 

[ElCheapo]

Clouseau wrote: "...HD Hasn't yet arrived for most people..."

According to the HD Radio Alliance: "Over 1,000 U.S. radio stations are currently broadcasting in HD, reaching 81% of the population and over 230 million people." I believe 81% qualifies as "most".

I wonder if the markets where just NPR is in HD figure into that 81% figure? As Clouseau pointed out, several markets of about 200,000 people each in Texas have no HD Radio outlet, yet Wichita Falls - population 114,600 - has a lone HD station - KMCU. Tiny Speaman, Texas - population 3,021 - has one too and it's also NPR.

Most of the larger metros - inside the top 50 markets - have multiple HD stations broadcasting multiple formats via HD2 and HD3 channels.

If you believe NPR's own numbers (I don't - but for the sake of argument we'll use them) they claim to have about 20,000,000 listeners - about 15% of the U.S. population.

That would mean 15% of the population of Wichita Falls or about 17,000 people might have any use for HD Radio at all. KMCU is broadcasting no HD2 or HD3 channels, which is one of the bigger selling points for HD. As much as I believe in the technology and the promise of HD2 offerings, I personally wouldn't invest in an HD Radio just to hear All Things Considered delivered digitally.

Just looking at Texas, there are 13 cities where HD Radio is on the air. Of those 13, 6 are NPR-HD only, 1 is Catholic radio only and 1 is an HD1 simulcast of an existing station.

I don't see any reason why an average person would invest in a radio in any of those markets.

This game is just getting started.

A year ago, my own knowledge of HD Radio was rather limited. A year ago, the town I was living in (Austin, Texas - population 1,204,800) had just one commercial HD station and it had no subchannels. There wasn't much reason for an Austinite to invest in an HD radio.

I suspect things will be a little different a year from now and very different two years from now.

 

[vsa]

ElCheapo wrote: "This game is just getting started."

I've seen these same arguments you and Clouseau put forward here also being used to show why HD Radio is a huge success and therefore it's now too late for competing technologies such as FMeXtra and Cam-D to be considered.

Which is it?

I'm in market number 2, the Los Angeles/Orange County metro, where even the grandfathered Mt. Wilson FM HD1s and HD2s can't cover the entire market - even with a strategically positioned dipole antenna or rabbit ears. With the large number of digital stations here, nobody's buying HD radios either.

Joe Public can see that the emperor has no clothes! Why can't you?

 

[ElCheapo]

ElCheapo wrote: "This game is just getting started."

I've seen these same arguments you and Clouseau put forward here also being used to show why HD Radio is a huge success and therefore it's now too late for competing technologies such as FMeXtra and Cam-D to be considered.

Which is it?

I'm in market number 2, the Los Angeles/Orange County metro, where even the grandfathered Mt. Wilson FM HD1s and HD2s can't cover the entire market - even with a strategically positioned dipole antenna or rabbit ears. With the large number of digital stations here, nobody's buying HD radios either.

Joe Public can see that the emperor has no clothes! Why can't you?

HD Radio is what's being installed. HD Radio actually has receivers on the market. I'm not opposed to competing formats like FMeXtra, but with the investment that has already been made in HD Radio and I seriously doubt FMeXtra will ever get off the ground.

Personally, I'm all about multicasting. I don't care if the vehicle is HD Radio, FMeXtra or whatever other format comes along. The simple fact of the matter is HD Radio is on the air and I have a radio that can receive it. I can't say the same for FMeXtra, and I seriously doubt I ever will.

Glad you used the Los Angeles example.

Currently, HD Radio is a supplemental service. At some point in the future, stations have the option of going 100% digital and HD becoming the service, but for now, it supplements the analog signal with a digital version of the analog station and additional subchannels you can't get on analog.

So the HD signals of the class B stations on Mt. Wilson don't cover the whole LA metro? That's not too surprising - since LA is a HUGE metro and as we all know, the HD signal is broadcast with significantly less power than its analog counterpart.

But consider this...

What if someone were to drop a new class A signal right into the middle of the metro? It wouldn't be receivable in much of the metro, yet it would still be very valuable. If you had a class A rimshotting parts of LA from the 'burbs, it would still be worth millions.

For a few hundred thousand dollars, each Mt. Wilson FM gets to add new channels. Do the signals match their analog service contour? No - but they do blanket millions with new programming choices.

As for your argument that "nobody's buying HD radios" - give it some time. Every bit of research I've seen indicates that the vast majority of people in the USA still have no idea what HD Radio is or how it can benefit them. The overwhelming majority thinks they are already receiving HD Radio on their analog radios. The industry as a whole needs to do a better job of marketing it - that's all.

Right now, HD Radio is in a "bet hedging" stage. Most of the people responsible for creating the highly confusing HD Radio ads are programming people with vested interests in maintaining their own analog audiences. People are told there are "stations between the stations" but they aren't presented with any specifics.

Personally, I wouldn't buy an expensive radio simply on the promise of being able to hear "stations between the stations." I might buy one if I knew I could hear my favorite music commercial free, or hear my favorite news-talk programming at night if it's on an AM daytimer for example, but with just the nebulous promise of "stations between the stations" - no thanks.

Until radio adjusts its HD marketing strategy to one that could actually have the potential of moving some radios, none of the "public's just not interested" arguments hold any water. The public isn't interested currently because radio hasn't given them any compelling reasons to be interested.

 

[vsa]

ElCheapo wrote: "Every bit of research I've seen indicates that the vast majority of people in the USA still have no idea what HD Radio is or how it can benefit them.  The overwhelming majority thinks they are already receiving HD Radio on their analog radios.  The industry as a whole needs to do a better job of marketing it..."

Every time buyer reading this should post this on their wall. Every time a radio account exec or sales rep walks in hoping to make a sale, they should be forced to read this statement and respond.

Glad to see you admit that Class B and C FM owners are putting a bunch of Class A type HD stations on the air.

"Buy an HD radio today! It's a local DXer's dream!"

The idea sounds good in theory if you are desperately trying to preserve your gatekeeper status and live in a vacuum. You are diverting precious time, energy and resources away from the real threat to traditional radio. It's not satellite radio and it's not even iPods in their current incarnation.

 

[clouseau]

ElCheapo wrote: "This game is just getting started."

I've seen these same arguments you and Clouseau put forward here also being used to show why HD Radio is a huge success and therefore it's now too late for competing technologies such as FMeXtra and Cam-D to be considered.

Again fast an loose with the truth. What a shock. I "Clouseau" have never said this. IN fact, I actually spoke well of Kahn's system in this very thread, when I posted...

"

Agreed. I'd love to see if the Kahn Radio's really work."

And I Really like FMExtra asider from is destruction of SCA. I earlier posted

"Frankly, I might try both if I had more money than sense. FMExtra is like CamD. I really Really REALLY want to believe, but WHERE ARE THE RADIOS???"

Congrats, you've just joined the "I make stuff up" club. You'll find a lot of friends in this forum. I can't speak for El Cheapo. But I can for me and you just writing garbage.

Which is it?

I think we've pretty well show this query is invalid.

 

[vsa]

Clouseau,

I was referring to your very recent posts declaring that HD radio is barely or not available in many markets, not to most of your earlier statements. Some people here have stated that HD radio is too big now to switch to another system. Other HD radio supporters like you, say it's still extremely early. Please accept my apologies to you for implying that you were speaking out of both sides of your mouth. You have not been. I should have been much more precise in my statement.

 

[ElCheapo]

ElCheapo wrote: "Every bit of research I've seen indicates that the vast majority of people in the USA still have no idea what HD Radio is or how it can benefit them. The overwhelming majority thinks they are already receiving HD Radio on their analog radios. The industry as a whole needs to do a better job of marketing it..."

Every time buyer reading this should post this on their wall. Every time a radio account exec or sales rep walks in hoping to make a sale, they should be forced to read this statement and respond.

To the best of my knowledge, nobody is selling HD2 or HD3 channels. The HD1 channels are a simulcast of the analog signal, which is what time buyers are buying.

When radio as an industry starts selling airtime on HD2 and HD3 channels, I think you'll see real marketing efforts - not the half hearted "something is out there" approach we're seeing now. Personally, I think radio should be doing a much better job of marketing their HD2 channels right now in preparation for that day, but realistically at this point they could only take audience away from established analog channels and generate zero revenue, so that could explain the hesitancy to market them properly.

Glad to see you admit that Class B and C FM owners are putting a bunch of Class A type HD stations on the air.

"Buy an HD radio today! It's a local DXer's dream!"

Class A FMs have the potential to grow significant audiences. I worked for one just after the turn of the century that toppled a class C format competitor. The A didn't cover the entire metro and it still doesn't, but it's doing very well to this day.

The idea sounds good in theory if you are desperately trying to preserve your gatekeeper status and live in a vacuum. You are diverting precious time, energy and resources away from the real threat to traditional radio. It's not satellite radio and it's not even iPods in their current incarnation.

Could you be referring to programming? If so, I agree with you. I'd rather see substantial investment in talent than investment in this new technology. Unfortunately, radio in its current state is a slave to Wall Street and Wall Street hates salaries and LOVES layoffs. HD Radio and talent (or lack of it) really have no bearing on each other. Until radio gets out from under the heel of the stock market and people who simply do not understand the business, it's going to be this way.

 

[Chuck]

I suspect things will be a little different a year from now and very different two years from now.

They may. On the Texas Board, it is reported that KLJT, Jacksonville/Tyler lit up in HD. I knew the owners were buying new HD compatible transmitters for this and some of its sister stations. If the report is true, that would make them the first HD in East Texas. Of course, there are no radios in the market, so most people won't notice....

As far as I know, there is no HD-2 channel so far.

 

[clouseau]

Clouseau,

I was referring to your very recent posts declaring that HD radio is barely or not available in many markets, not to most of your earlier statements. Some people here have stated that HD radio is too big now to switch to another system. Other HD radio supporters like you, say it's still extremely early. Please accept my apologies to you for implying that you were speaking out of both sides of your mouth. You have not been. I should have been much more precise in my statement.

Thanks for the clarification. I DO believe it's very early.

And while I could make a case that if every HD station spent only $2000 that would make it "Millons of dollars have been spent on the HD conversion so far" I won't. :-D

I'd say we MIGHT be too far along to change, but I don't think so. Watch AM change.

Clouseau

 

[vsa]

ElCheapo quoted VSA: "Every time buyer reading this should post this on their wall. Every time a radio account exec or sales rep walks in hoping to make a sale, they should be forced to read this statement and respond."

And wrote: "To the best of my knowledge, nobody is selling HD2 or HD3 channels.  The HD1 channels are a simulcast of the analog signal, which is what time buyers are buying..."

ElCheapo earlier wrote: "Every bit of research I've seen indicates that the vast majority of people in the USA still have no idea what HD Radio is or how it can benefit them.  The overwhelming majority thinks they are already receiving HD Radio on their analog radios.  The industry as a whole needs to do a better job of marketing it..."

You missed my point ENTIRELY. The point was, if radio can't even properly market HD radios for its own self-serving purposes, why should ANY advertiser believe that radio is capable of marketing ANY OTHER product or service?
 
Radio is used to being an audio distribution semi-monopoly. It hasn't had to sell radios since its earliest days. It doesn't know how to do it. Not a clue! To be somewhat fair to radio, HD radio doesn't offer any clear benefits. "Buy an overpriced special radio because there may be a few low-powered radio stations between-the-stations playing who-knows-what, and soon those stations will also be playing 20 minutes of spots an hour just like the others."

No benefits = no HD radio buyers

 

[ElCheapo]

ElCheapo quoted VSA: "Every time buyer reading this should post this on their wall. Every time a radio account exec or sales rep walks in hoping to make a sale, they should be forced to read this statement and respond."

And wrote: "To the best of my knowledge, nobody is selling HD2 or HD3 channels. The HD1 channels are a simulcast of the analog signal, which is what time buyers are buying..."

ElCheapo earlier wrote: "Every bit of research I've seen indicates that the vast majority of people in the USA still have no idea what HD Radio is or how it can benefit them. The overwhelming majority thinks they are already receiving HD Radio on their analog radios. The industry as a whole needs to do a better job of marketing it..."

You missed my point ENTIRELY. The point was, if radio can't even properly market HD radios for its own self-serving purposes, why should ANY advertiser believe that radio is capable of marketing ANY OTHER product or service?

Radio is used to being an audio distribution semi-monopoly. It hasn't had to sell radios since its earliest days. It doesn't know how to do it. Not a clue! To be somewhat fair to radio, HD radio doesn't offer any clear benefits. "Buy an overpriced special radio because there may be a few low-powered radio stations between-the-stations playing who-knows-what, and soon those stations will also be playing 20 minutes of spots an hour just like the others."

No benefits = no HD radio buyers

You apparently missed my point as well. As I stated, most of the HD promotion efforts are being headed by people who have a vested interest in HD not succeeding. They want you to know you can hear their station with "digital quality" but realistically - is that any reason to buy an HD Radio? Most major market FMs sound pretty darn good as is.

The approach to marketing the HD2 channels is half hearted at best. The "something is out there" approach is just plain dumb. I'd liken that to a music store full of unmarked CDs. Do you think people would walk in and part with their hard earned cash to hear "something?" Not likely...

If you were a program director in a major market, would you be eager to promote an HD subchannel being programmed by someone else? It's just more competition for you.

Radio could produce an effective marketing campaign for HD, but currently has no desire. Alliance members have contractual obligations to promote it, but that doesn't mean they have to do a good job.

Like I said - radio as an industry is currently just hedging its bet with HD. It's like the early days of FM.

Were the program directors of KHJ, WLS and WABC promoting their FMs? No. The program directors of today's stations are no more eager to promote the new channels and multicasting is the USP that will move HD Radios.