HD Radio vs. Internet Radio - Which is Radio's Future?

[vsa]

In a just-completed Bridge Ratings study of 3179 consumers ages 12+, their client's goal was to determine the current status or awareness of HD radio among average Americans and how it compares to Internet radio in use and interest. Check the link to read the results:

http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_08.08.07.HDvsInternet.htm

What conclusions do you draw from the study? Is radio putting too many or too few eggs in any particular baskets?

I've drawn a couple of conclusions.

(1) HD radio has achieved some measure of success among large radio broadcasters. Why? Although far from what was promised, the product TRIES to solve a problem or to fill a need for some broadcasters.

(2) HD radio is still not being embraced or purchased by the general public because it does not solve any problems or fulfill any real needs of listeners.

This is like marketing a new-fangled anvil and modernized horseshoes in the early 1900s. Blacksmiths may have liked it, but unless you were a horseowner, who cared? As the technology improved, people saw the clear advantages of switching to horseless carriages. Blacksmiths who refused to transition to becoming mechanics slowly went out of business. New mechanics, particularly the ones who got into the field early and became the first experts, prospered.

 

[LinoNYC]

(2) HD radio is still not being embraced or purchased by the general public because it does not solve any problems or fulfill any real needs of listeners.

In part bacause its hard to find. Where I live here in Manhattan there are three big-box chain outlet P C Richard, Circuit City and Best Buy. No iboc/hd radio. The only place around here to find one is at Radio Shack where they are never properly set-up, just thrown on a shelf left with antennas bunched in back I don't know if anyone even tunrns them off at night. Thre RS stores two a block apart the other a 5 min walk, all same situation.

The real issues are that iboc isn't perceived as "revolutionary" as vinyl-to-cd or vhs-to-dvd, it just looks like a regular radio. The other problem is that for the youngest potential customers "convergence products" are the buzzwords.

Radio isn't really cool with this bunch, but it could tag along if it can be incorporated into the cultural hardware of youth.

Maybe if iboc receivers are bundled into I-phone like devices it might have some chance. As it stands now I'am glad my total investment in "HD" radio consists only of a receiver.

Lino

 

[SUPERCASTER]

(2) HD radio is still not being embraced or purchased by the general public because it does not solve any problems or fulfill any real needs of listeners.

In part bacause its hard to find. Where I live here in Manhattan there are three big-box chain outlet P C Richard, Circuit City and Best Buy. No iboc/hd radio. The only place around here to find one is at Radio Shack where they are never properly set-up, just thrown on a shelf left with antennas bunched in back I don't know if anyone even tunrns them off at night. Thre RS stores two a block apart the other a 5 min walk, all same situation.
The real issues are that iboc isn't perceived as "revolutionary" as vinyl-to-cd or vhs-to-dvd, it just looks like a regular radio. The other problem is that for the youngest potential customers "convergence products" are the buzzwords.

Radio isn't really cool with this bunch, but it could tag along if it can be incorporated into the cultural hardware of youth.

Maybe if iboc receivers are bundled into I-phone like devices it might have some chance. As it stands now I'am glad my total investment in "HD" radio consists only of a receiver.

Lino

HD radio is hard to find, sell or buy because almost no one cares about HD radio. HD radio benefits broadcasters and not the public.

Asked if they ever visited a retail store to look at or try an HD radio receiver, 30 members of our sample of 3179 said they had. That is less than 1%.

Source:
http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_08.08.07.HDvsInternet.htm

 

[vsa]

(2) HD radio is still not being embraced or purchased by the general public because it does not solve any problems or fulfill any real needs of listeners.

In part bacause its hard to find. 

HD radio is hard to find because there continues to be no demand. Retailers are in business to sell things people see and buy or things that people say they want to buy.

The real issues are that iboc isn't perceived as "revolutionary" as vinyl-to-cd or vhs-to-dvd, it just looks like a regular radio.  The other problem is that for the youngest potential customers "convergence products" are the buzzwords.

Radio isn't really cool with this bunch...

It's not perceived as revolutionary because it ISN'T revolutionary. It's a SUSTAINING technological improvement that came along at precisely the time that a DISRUPTIVE technology (Internet radio and its cousins) got good enough to grab the imagination and fill the needs of consumers. And this is not a young "bunch". It's the next generation and a growing number of older adults as well.

but it could tag along if it can be incorporated into the cultural hardware of youth.

Maybe if  iboc receivers are bundled into I-phone like devices it might have some chance.  As it stands now I'am glad my total investment in "HD" radio consists only of a receiver.

Lino

That's another example of thinking about the needs of broadcast licensees, not the needs of consumers. When people started buying cars a hundred years ago, they did not want them equipped with improved versions of buggy whips and spare horse shoes.

 

[dbdigital]

Bridge Ratings estimates that Internet radio will have 180 million listeners by 2020, terrestrial radio will have 250 million listeners but HD Radio will have less than 10 million.

This assumes, of course, that, by 2020, terrestrial radio will still be divided by analog and digital technologies. It could be entirely digital by then. It might even be extinct by 2020.

In observing young people (at the mall, fast-food joints, etc.) what I'm noticing is that more and more are listening to music on their cell phones...even over an iPod. This tells me that the trend will be smartphones as the portable listening device of choice for the next generation. And if that occurs, terrestrial radio's numbers could be much, much lower than what Bridge is predicting.

db

 

[MasterTheseus]

Bridge Ratings estimates that Internet radio will have 180 million listeners by 2020, terrestrial radio will have 250 million listeners but HD Radio will have less than 10 million.

This assumes, of course, that, by 2020, terrestrial radio will still be divided by analog and digital technologies. It could be entirely digital by then. It might even be extinct by 2020.

In observing young people (at the mall, fast-food joints, etc.) what I'm noticing is that more and more are listening to music on their cell phones...even over an iPod. This tells me that the trend will be smartphones as the portable listening device of choice for the next generation. And if that occurs, terrestrial radio's numbers could be much, much lower than what Bridge is predicting.

db

Not completely out of the realm od possible. Samsungs new chip is expected to permit HD Radio in a cell phone. . . Now there is some food for thought.

 

[vsa]

Bridge Ratings estimates that Internet radio will have 180 million listeners by 2020, terrestrial radio will have 250 million listeners but HD Radio will have less than 10 million.

This assumes, of course, that, by 2020, terrestrial radio will still be divided by analog and digital technologies.  It could be entirely digital by then. It might even be extinct by 2020.

In observing young people (at the mall, fast-food joints, etc.) what I'm noticing is that more and more are listening to music on their cell phones...even over an iPod.  This tells me that the trend will be smartphones as the portable listening device of choice for the next generation.  And if that occurs, terrestrial radio's numbers could be much, much lower than what Bridge is predicting.

db

Not completely out of the realm od possible. Samsungs new chip is expected to permit HD Radio in a cell phone. . . Now there is some food for thought.

I still own and use the venerable Radio Shack DX-440, a radio manufactured by Sangean. MasterTheseus, are you free to discuss if your company is working on Wi-Fi radios? You don't need to reinvent the whole wheel to do this. A number of companies are offering OEM solutions:

http://www.rokulabs.com/roku_pwd_wfmm.php

http://corporate.reciva.com/products_and_technology/internet_radio_modules.asp

 

[LinoNYC]

"Supercaster" writes:

HD radio benefits broadcasters and not the public.

"Care to 'splain that one big guy?

Naysayers (such as yourself?) have long argued that the expense for broadcasters outweighed and potential payback.

Here, they have a point. When you consider the requirements for AM iboc are more stringent than AM stereo and much more so than for mono, requiring wider bandwidth and phase coherence, often meaning the replacement of both TX and antenna, all to continue just the existing program, they might well ask "what's my motivation".

IBOC has allways struck me a "metooism" -a hedge at a time when "digital" is the golden buzzword.

On FM, I don't see what the business model is for the subchannels that carry formats deemd unworthy of a mainchannel, don't carry advertising, and have the potential to drain listeners from the main carrier.

On the plus side FM iboc eliminates multipath, a major problem in big cities and does provide more open and less clipped audio. It sounds somewhat similar to what FM sounded like before the loudness wars forever changed it.

The AM side though somewhat problematic would strike anyone as a major improvement over what they have come to expect from AM.

I have demonstrated this here at home to visiting friends, the results were all positive.

Lino

 

[vsa]

"Supercaster" writes:

HD radio benefits broadcasters and not the public.

"Care to 'splain that one big guy?

Go back to the beginning of this thread. Start reading and follow the links. And this time, don't skip over the response from me to you that you ignored and that may have gone over your head.

 

[LinoNYC]

Go back to the beginning of this thread. Start reading and follow the links. And this time, don't skip over the response from me to you that you ignored and that may have gone over your head.

Kind of unlikely that anything you'ld write would go over my head.

Your insistance on analogizing "buggywhips" and so-forth show nothing but bias and failure to comprehend what faces the radio, and all conventional media.

Gems such as:

That's another example of thinking about the needs of broadcast licensees, not the needs of consumers. When people started buying cars a hundred years ago, they did not want them equipped with improved versions of buggy whips and spare horse shoes.

and......:

It's not perceived as revolutionary because it ISN'T revolutionary. It's a SUSTAINING technological improvement that came along at precisely the time that a DISRUPTIVE technology (Internet radio and its cousins) got good enough to grab the imagination and fill the needs of consumers.

If you're up to it,, go back to the link you provided in the original post and scroll down to the graphs: "HD Radio Growth Projections" and "Digital Media Growth Projections 2005-2020". Notice that inspite of setbacks in public awareness both graphs show consistant use of "hd" radio.

The more immediate threat to commercial broadcasters isn't long-term erosion, that is currently most evident in the youngest listeners, the real threat is from advertising dollars being diverted to media that has the ability to pinpoint target audiences and deliver better cost per prospect.

HD radio, to the extent that it matters in any of this is not a "revolutionary" or "disruptive" technology that is where the perceptions of people such as yourself fall short.

This technology along with the improvements in performance it will get, will, I believe address the expectations of the next generation of radio listeners by eliminating distortion on FM and improving the fidelity beyond what people have unfortunately come to expect from AM.

The simple facts are that the future of mass communication is digital but that there are hundreds of millions of existing analog radios, the only viable way to make these co-exist is with a system such as iboc.

Lino

 

[Ray22]

HD FM radio doesn't eliminate multipath problems in hilly areas. The HD signal just switches back to analog during multi-path conditions. the HD signal seems to be very sensitive to certain kinds of multi-path...I get stable HD while parked but once start moving in a real car with lots of hills sudden get the analog signal on and off....on JVC and Panasonic HD car radios. wish it worked better...but I would rather hear the analog multi-path....maybe I am just more use to it.

 

[vsa]

Go back to the beginning of this thread. Start reading and follow the links. And this time, don't skip over the response from me to you that you ignored and that may have gone over your head.

Kind of unlikely that anything you'ld write would go over my head.

All of this has gone over your head - completely.

Your insistance on analogizing "buggywhips" and so-forth show nothing but bias and failure to comprehend what faces the radio, and all conventional media.

Gems such as:

That's another example of thinking about the needs of broadcast licensees, not the needs of consumers. When people started buying cars a hundred years ago, they did not want them equipped with improved versions of buggy whips and spare horse shoes.

and......:

It's not perceived as revolutionary because it ISN'T revolutionary. It's a SUSTAINING technological improvement that came along at precisely the time that a DISRUPTIVE technology (Internet radio and its cousins) got good enough to grab the imagination and fill the needs of consumers.

I stated that HD radio is a SUSTAINING technological development. Internet radio is a DISRUPTIVE technological development. I suggest you aquaint yourself with both of these terms. Any of several books by Clayton Christensen would be a good starting point:

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_g...-keywords=clayton+christensen&Go.x=10&Go.y=11

If you're up to it,, go back to the link you provided in the original post and scroll down to the graphs: "HD Radio Growth Projections"  and "Digital Media Growth Projections 2005-2020".  Notice that inspite of setbacks in public awareness both graphs show consistant use of "hd" radio.

The more immediate threat to commercial broadcasters isn't long-term erosion, that is currently most evident in the youngest listeners, the real threat is from advertising dollars being diverted to media that has the ability to pinpoint target audiences and deliver better cost per prospect.

HD radio, to the extent that it matters in any of this is not a "revolutionary" or "disruptive" technology that is where the perceptions of people such as yourself fall short.

This technology along with the improvements in performance it will get,  will, I believe address the expectations of the next generation of radio listeners by eliminating distortion on FM and improving the fidelity beyond what people have unfortunately come to expect from AM.

The simple facts are that the future of mass communication is digital but that there are hundreds of millions of existing analog radios, the only viable way to make these co-exist is with a system such as iboc.

Lino

You are BLIND, my friend. And I am trying to be gentle here. Future USE of HD radio shows usage at pitiful levels. The future of mass communications is digital, but it won't be over AM or FM frequencies, analog or digital. The "mass" part is iffy at best and think more in terms of fragmentation, specialization and online communities - sort of like this one. 

 

[LinoNYC]

You are BLIND, my friend. And I am trying to be gentle here.

Typical of these sorts of boards we don't know anything about each other, although I'am getting a clear picture of what "vsa" might stand for.

As for being blind and FWIW I bought AOL stock in 1993-4 along with RCN, JDS Uniphase, a few others. When I sold them in early 1999 they gave me the foundation to sit here and toy with characters like you.

If infact you read the article you originally linked, you have completely failed to extract the pertainent information within it. Go Back and try again.

You have allowed your own biases and lack of historical perspective to blind you to practical realities of the marketplace. It's no use for you to try and bluster your way out of this. You simply don't get it.

Lino

 

[vsa]

You are BLIND, my friend. And I am trying to be gentle here.

Typical of these sorts of boards we don't know anything about each other, although I'am getting a clear picture of what "vsa" might stand for.

As for being blind and FWIW I bought AOL stock in 1993-4 along with RCN, JDS Uniphase, a few others. When I sold them in early 1999 they gave me the foundation to sit here and toy with characters like you.

If infact you read the article you originally linked, you have completely failed to extract the pertainent information within it. Go Back and try again.

You have allowed your own biases and lack of historical perspective to blind you to practical realities of the marketplace. It's no use for you to try and bluster your way out of this. You simply don't get it.

Lino

For anyone not bothering to read the link in this thread's first posting, here is a snippet:

"...In the following media growth projections, Bridge Ratings estimates based on current trends that Internet radio will have 180 million listeners by 2020, 250 million will still be listening to terrestrial radio, but HD will have less than 10 million. Which will contribute more to radio's financial future?"

You are attempting to diminish the messenger when you can't diminish the message.

 

[LinoNYC]

"Bridge" had estimated 2.5 million hd radios would be sold this year, then steadily revised this number down. Their current "guestimate" is 500k.. So much for their prescience.

With the current models being stand alone dedicated receivers it's not surprising that few are sold. Almost no one buys a radio-only device anymore. The Acurian has a clock which has no integral function, the designer completely missed the ball on what could have been a perfect and practical device, a clock radio.

The industry estimates that some 65 million radio devices (am-fm equipped) are sold each year in the USA. Round that down to 60m and spread that over the 13 year scope of the Bridge projection you have 780 million receiver equipped devices to be bought in the USA.

Next, factor-in the introduction of cheap and improved LSI chips such a one from Samsung which is due in products by mid- 08.

AT this point the same forces that brought PLL tuning ,digital readouts and stereo multiplex to moderately priced then even cheap sets and "hd" becomes woven into mainstream consumer acceptance.

Once these chips hit the marketplace and get embedded into the kind of radios that comsumers actually buy ie: not pricey boutique sets, then you'll see wider acceptance and Bridge will once again revise it's projections and look absolutely brilliant.

Lino

 

[vsa]

"Bridge" had estimated 2.5 million hd radios would be sold this year, then steadily revised this number down.  Their current "guestimate" is 500k.. So much for their prescience.

With the current models being stand alone dedicated receivers it's not surprising that few are sold.   Almost no one buys a radio-only device anymore.  The Acurian has a clock which has no integral function, the designer completely missed the ball on what could have been a perfect and practical device, a clock radio.

The industry estimates that some 65 million radio devices (am-fm equipped) are sold each year in the USA.  Round that down to 60m and spread that over the 13 year scope of the Bridge projection you have 780 million receiver equipped devices to be bought in the USA. 

Next, factor-in the introduction of cheap and improved LSI chips such a one from Samsung which is due in products by mid- 08.

AT this point the same forces that brought PLL tuning ,digital readouts and stereo multiplex  to moderately priced then even cheap sets and "hd" becomes woven into mainstream consumer acceptance. 

Once these chips hit the marketplace and get embedded into the kind of radios that comsumers actually buy ie: not pricey boutique sets, then you'll see wider acceptance and Bridge will once again revise it's projections and look absolutely brilliant.

Lino

I love it how you can take terrible news on HD radio and spin it into something positive. Hope springs eternal in dreamland. You are assuming that 60 million devices containing AM/FM analog and/or digital radios will be sold over the next 13 years. We do not live in a vacuum. There's a revolution brewing right now that is making traditional media gradually obsolete. And the pace is likely to accelerate.

 

[MasterTheseus]

Bridge Ratings estimates that Internet radio will have 180 million listeners by 2020, terrestrial radio will have 250 million listeners but HD Radio will have less than 10 million.

This assumes, of course, that, by 2020, terrestrial radio will still be divided by analog and digital technologies. It could be entirely digital by then. It might even be extinct by 2020.

In observing young people (at the mall, fast-food joints, etc.) what I'm noticing is that more and more are listening to music on their cell phones...even over an iPod. This tells me that the trend will be smartphones as the portable listening device of choice for the next generation. And if that occurs, terrestrial radio's numbers could be much, much lower than what Bridge is predicting.

db

Not completely out of the realm od possible. Samsungs new chip is expected to permit HD Radio in a cell phone. . . Now there is some food for thought.

I still own and use the venerable Radio Shack DX-440, a radio manufactured by Sangean. MasterTheseus, are you free to discuss if your company is working on Wi-Fi radios? You don't need to reinvent the whole wheel to do this. A number of companies are offering OEM solutions:

http://www.rokulabs.com/roku_pwd_wfmm.php

http://corporate.reciva.com/products_and_technology/internet_radio_modules.asp

I have actually just finished testing our first, to be available this October using the Reciva module. We have another model and a component tuner that should be available next spring.

 

[vsa]

I have actually just finished testing our first, to be available this October using the Reciva module. We have another model and a component tuner that should be available next spring.

Great news! I own a Roku Soundbridge and will probably also purchase one of your (Reciva-powered) Wi-Fi radio products when they become available. I've been a broadcaster for almost 40 years and I'm not interested in any HD radios.

 

[MasterTheseus]

Great news! I own a Roku Soundbridge and will probably also purchase one of your (Reciva-powered) Wi-Fi radio products when they become available. I've been a broadcaster for almost 40 years and I'm not interested in any HD radios.

Great! We expect wi-fi to be a great addition to our line of products. HD Radio has been big for us, but we think that for the time being wi-fi will likely have more WOW appeal and thus help us really bring our name into mainstream.

I think the sadness is that there are no WELL known brands out there doing the Wi-fi. Even ROKU is relatively obscure brand here in the US.

 

[vsa]

Great news! I own a Roku Soundbridge and will probably also purchase one of your (Reciva-powered) Wi-Fi radio products when they become available. I've been a broadcaster for almost 40 years and I'm not interested in any HD radios.

Great! We expect wi-fi to be a great addition to our line of products. HD Radio has been big for us, but we think that for the time being wi-fi will likely have more WOW appeal and thus help us really bring our name into mainstream.

I think the sadness is that there are no WELL known brands out there doing the Wi-fi. Even ROKU is relatively obscure brand here in the US.

Go back 40-50 years. How many big name tube radio manufacturers made the leap from tubes to transistors? Not many. Although a small company, Roku was able to get product into Best Buy and Fry's. While the big boys sleep, this is a time of opportunity. Glad to see a quality company like Sangean looking to the future.