HD's amazingly swift rollout

[calstymes]

OKCRadioGuy suggested:

have any of the eggheads considered running LESS power on more powerful AM stations' "HD" signals? Here's a thought.. IF stations over 5k made their HD signal only at the level of a 5k at night, wouldn't that do a LOT to help minimize the nighttime skywave interference problems caused by "HD"? The analog could blow out enough goo as usual to get long-range coverage while the station could keep HD going for the local market at night that way. I think it would be a pretty cool comprimise! (not perfect but much better than just "go ahead boys and let the mush fly!")

The only way to eliminate the "[wall of skywave] mush" (an aptly descriptive phrase which you invented in the Engineering topic) that is about to be unleashed on the AM broadcast band is to eliminate IBOC broadcasting on AM radio stations. Entirely.

 

[Mike Walker]

I am at once afraid of the impact on nighttime dxing on the AM band, a hobby my whole life, and curious about HD skip. I'll sure as hell be up late at night TRYING to pull in some dx from "a galaxy far, far away".

 

[wgliradio]

wgilradio, I wasn't just comparing HD to the advent of radio. That would be silly. I was making the point that ALL new technology takes many years. There's literally no such thing as an "overnight success" in technology (possible exception: DVD). Note all the other technologies I included in the comparison...everything from color television to pocket calculators to pcs to microwave ovens. ALL took MANY years.

MP3 players were quick, so were VHS tapes, CD's, 8-tracks (and just as quick to die)

As I've had time to think about AM Stereo, you're right about all the cars with AM Stereo. But AM Stereo was NEVER on as many stations as HD is RIGHT NOW.

In NY, AM stereo was on WFAN, WOR, WPAT, WINS, WHN/WEVD, WNEW/WBBR, WQXR/WQEW, WWRL. HD is on WFAN, WOR, WABC, WNYC, WCBS, WADO. 8 vs 6

If we're talking about big time stations, HD was on the big ones. the WFAN's, WLS's of the world. The powerhouses.

 

[davideduardo]

MP3 players were quick, so were VHS tapes, CD's, 8-tracks (and just as quick to die)

CD players were anything but quick. The first ones cost over a thousand dollars, and the only software was Japanese (wonderful if you wanted Caravelli playing instrumental versions of Seiko Tesuda's greatest hits). It took until the endo of the decade for a portable player to get down to $100.

 

[wgliradio]

What would you consider quick? I would think within 5-7 years is fairly quick, which is where the CD format was. With 0.0015% penetration, where will HD be in 5-7 years? Not where CD's were.

 

[davideduardo]

What would you consider quick? I would think within 5-7 years is fairly quick, which is where the CD format was. With 0.0015% penetration, where will HD be in 5-7 years? Not where CD's were.

With giants like Samsung developing small 9mm low power chips, HD may well be ahead; in 1990 at a Service Merchandise in FL I had to pay $199 for the lowest priced CD Walkman... there are, just a month after FCC approval of HD, $59 HD radios. With Samsung in, the othre major fabs and developers will want to follow, encouraged by HD coverage of all the top 100 markets and about 70% of the population.

Remember, CD's were not contingent on government approval... no major manufacturer made a large commitment to HD prior to knowing the FCC would give an unqualified approval, which happened less than 60 days ago. So for all practical purñposes, HD is two months old.

 

[wgliradio]

With giants like Samsung developing small 9mm low power chips, HD may well be ahead; in 1990 at a Service Merchandise in FL I had to pay $199 for the lowest priced CD Walkman... there are, just a month after FCC approval of HD, $59 HD radios. With Samsung in, the othre major fabs and developers will want to follow, encouraged by HD coverage of all the top 100 markets and about 70% of the population.

0.0015% is a huge hole to climb out of, when 93% of the population has been exposed to advertisements from the Alliance for over a year now about HD Radio. Even if HD in 5-7 years is at the 4% where satellite is now, it would still be considered a failure. THESE are the numbers you need to be concerned with, not the coverage, the number of users.

Remember, CD's were not contingent on government approval... no major manufacturer made a large commitment to HD prior to knowing the FCC would give an unqualified approval, which happened less than 60 days ago. So for all practical purñposes, HD is two months old.

I'll let Kenwood, Panasonic, JVC, Boston Acoustics, Yamaha, Onkyo, Polk, Cambridge Soundworks, Alpine, Eclipse, Sangean, whatever slave labor makes Accurian and Day Sequerra know that David Eduardo says that they don't count. I'm sure they'll agree.

At least in 1989, you had a PORTABLE unit. There are still no portable HD units since the first HD radio was sold in 2004.

HD is far from two months old. And if you want to make that case, then the ball was dropped on it just as it was for AM Stereo. So either the tech will kill itself, regulatory issues will kill it, or lack of interest will kill it. Pick one.

By 2020, Bridge expects 226 million will use Internet radio, 230 traditional radio, 144 million media over cell phones and 26 million HD radio. Keep that 8100 plugged in.

 

[davideduardo]

0.0015% is a huge hole to climb out of, when 93% of the population has been exposed to advertisements from the Alliance for over a year now about HD Radio. Even if HD in 5-7 years is at the 4% where satellite is now, it would still be considered a failure. THESE are the numbers you need to be concerned with, not the coverage, the number of users.

Actually, it is about a month under a year, and the HD Alliance does not include many of the stations now in HD. I'm guessing that the unduplicated cume of the Allliance is less than a third of the population... 93% is the percentage of people who listen to radio at all, not the percentage that cume the Alliance stations.

I'll let Kenwood, Panasonic, JVC, Boston Acoustics, Yamaha, Onkyo, Polk, Cambridge Soundworks, Alpine, Eclipse, Sangean, whatever slave labor makes Accurian and Day Sequerra know that David Eduardo says that they don't count. I'm sure they'll agree.

Everything up to now was high-end or specialty. Very little mass market, no portables, no radios suitable for where most radios are located... offices, cubicles, kitchens and bedrooms. The BA is a $300 radio, very niche just like the original $150 Receptor was. Sangean is a brnd known mostly for Shortwave, and the others had single models... sort of a foot-wetting process to get into HD while the FCC made its decision... and until cheap, efficient chipsets came out.

At least in 1989, you had a PORTABLE unit. There are still no portable HD units since the first HD radio was sold in 2004.

But the FCC did not approve until just a couple of months ago; it took about 8 years to get an expensive CD portable. Samsung will have one early next year.... less than a year after the FCC approval. Two different chip companies have 9mm form factor chips designed, in proto, and within 6 months of commercial quantity shipping.

HD is far from two months old. And if you want to make that case, then the ball was dropped on it just as it was for AM Stereo. So either the tech will kill itself, regulatory issues will kill it, or lack of interest will kill it. Pick one.

Who would spend millions on a chipset, dedicate fab capacity, and line up manufacturers for a system that was not yet approved for US use? Nobody would.

AM stereo came five to six years AFTER FM became the dominant medium. AM stereo initially was very unpleasant to listen to in cars, and embroiled in lawsuits. And it was analog.

By 2020, Bridge expects 226 million will use Internet radio, 230 traditional radio, 144 million media over cell phones and 26 million HD radio. Keep that 8100 plugged in.

I do research. And I know that predicting the future based on what consumers say they will do 12 years from now is best done by Miss Cleo. I don't even trust what listeners say they will do next week.

 

[fritobandito]

By 2020, Bridge expects 226 million will use Internet radio, 230 traditional radio, 144 million media over cell phones and 26 million HD radio.

Yeah, and the last thing I remember reading about Bridge methodology was they take surveys at malls and somehow extrapolate that out 20 years.

Nobody in their right mind would believe that type of research.

Think about all the variables in play like regulatory hurdles and royalties that haven't been sorted out, advancements in existing technologies and brand new technologies that haven't been developed yet.

Are they accredited by the MRC? I seriously doubt it.

 

[PocketRadio]

But the FCC did not approve until just a couple of months ago...

"First HD Radio Sold"

"iBiquity Digital Corporation announced today that an Iowa buyer became "first in the nation" to purchase an HD Radio tuner. Nathan Franzen purchased a Kenwood KTC-HR100 HD Radio tuner from the Ultimate Electronics store in Cedar Rapids, Iowa on Monday, January 5, 2004."

http://history.sandiego.edu/gen/recording/ibiquity.html

"Regional stations join the ranks of HD radio"

"In September 2002, KBKS-FM was the first station to broadcast HD radio in the Puget Sound region."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003567591_hdradio12.html

"HD Radio Perceptual Study - Awareness & Interest 2007 Units Sold Estimates Reduced"

"Based on the results of this study and analysis performed by Bridge Ratings, we have reduced our original projections for full year 2007 HD radio sales from 2.1 million total HD radio units sold to 1.5 million. Our models anticipate HD Radio market penetration to grow slowly through 2010 when we optimistically project 12 million sold (U.S.)."

http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_1.17.07.HDPercep.htm

"HD Radio Growth Re-forecasted Down"

"Of all the media we are covering in this latest study, HD Radio growth is the most disappointing based on previous industry expectations. Consumer awareness of HD radio continues to grow but consumer interest in owning or listening to HD Radio is slowing. 70% of the sample has heard of HD radio at some time in the past. Only 9% expressed that they are Very Interested in owning HD radio."

http://www.bridgeratings.com/press_042507-digitalprojectionsupd.htm

Initially, Bridge Ratings forecasted the number of HD radios sold from 2.1 million down to 1.5 million for 2007, and 12 million by 2010 - then, they re-forcasted the number of HD radios sold to no more than 500000 for 2007, and only 2.5 million units sold by 2010. I keep seeing this same excuse about the FCC just authorizing HD/IBOC two months ago, but that has nothing to do with the lack of consumer interest, or the fact that the first HD radio sold was back in January 2004 and that stations have been broadcasting at least since 2002 - that is 3 1/2 years of no appreciable consumer interest, except by radio-geeks:

http://tinyurl.com/ys3q99

I'm just curious - does every "suit" in the HD Radio Alliance think this way ? Do you see the figures - from 12 million down to 2.5 million by 2010 ? Do you see the flat line, in Google Trends, representing the lack of consumer interest in HD Radio for the past 3 1/2 years ? Do you see that Bridge Ratings states that, "consumer awareness of HD Radio continues to grow but consumer interest in owning or listening to HD Radio is slowing" ? Can you guess that the radio-geeks have slowed their buying of HD radios ? Do you have the email of some HD Radio Alliance "suits" that I can email this to ?

 

[PocketRadio]

By 2020, Bridge expects 226 million will use Internet radio, 230 traditional radio, 144 million media over cell phones and 26 million HD radio.

Yeah, and the last thing I remember reading about Bridge methodology was they take surveys at malls and somehow extrapolate that out 20 years.

Nobody in their right mind would believe that type of research.

Think about all the variables in play like regulatory hurdles and royalties that haven't been sorted out, advancements in existing technologies and brand new technologies that haven't been developed yet.

Are they accredited by the MRC? I seriously doubt it.

"The Nuts and Bolts of Powerful Surveys..."

"Bridge Rating's research call center has been an industry leader for over 20 years. California Survey Research Services, Inc. (CSRS) is an integral part of the Bridge Ratings team, helping us to ensure survey integrity and quality control through all modes of data gathering."

http://bridgeratings.com/method.htm

 

[wgliradio]

Actually, it is about a month under a year, and the HD Alliance does not include many of the stations now in HD. I'm guessing that the unduplicated cume of the Allliance is less than a third of the population... 93% is the percentage of people who listen to radio at all, not the percentage that cume the Alliance stations.

But are not the stations that make up the Alliance part of that wonderful 70% of the population now being served by HD radio... the same stations that would be airing these spots? I can tell you that in metro New York, these spots have aired on the most popular stations. I wonder if there has been a rush to buy radios?

I'll let Kenwood, Panasonic, JVC, Boston Acoustics, Yamaha, Onkyo, Polk, Cambridge Soundworks, Alpine, Eclipse, Sangean, whatever slave labor makes Accurian and Day Sequerra know that David Eduardo says that they don't count. I'm sure they'll agree.

Everything up to now was high-end or specialty. Very little mass market, no portables, no radios suitable for where most radios are located... offices, cubicles, kitchens and bedrooms.

Which is the big mistake. But you cannot say that the big players are not on board... and shame on them for not placing HD in a sellable product to Joe Consumer.

The BA is a $300 radio, very niche just like the original $150 Receptor was. Sangean is a brnd known mostly for Shortwave, and the others had single models... sort of a foot-wetting process to get into HD while the FCC made its decision... and until cheap, efficient chipsets came out.

You can't spin this now. No no, all we heard from the HD set is how wonderful these radios are. Now we get that they were placeholders? You can't flip flop on this.

But the FCC did not approve until just a couple of months ago; it took about 8 years to get an expensive CD portable. Samsung will have one early next year.... less than a year after the FCC approval.

1) Let me know when a QUALITY player (not Samsung) like Sony or Panasonic or JVC will have a portable. Samsung is usually a low end design.

2) Let's see it actually happen without having to throw Lithium batteries in it

3) Let's see what it's packaged with (CD/MP3 etc)

4) Let's see it work with an antenna in a headphone cord.. or for AM, a small loopstick.

Who would spend millions on a chipset, dedicate fab capacity, and line up manufacturers for a system that was not yet approved for US use? Nobody would.

Then what makes HD work in the radios we already have? Fairy dust?

AM stereo came five to six years AFTER FM became the dominant medium. AM stereo initially was very unpleasant to listen to in cars, and embroiled in lawsuits. And it was analog.

But it was still PLACED in cars.. and people listened even if they didn't know they were listening. Every Chrysler radio from 1985 until at least the early 1990's had a stock AM stereo radio in even the cheapest models. Most GM's had them too.

I do research. And I know that predicting the future based on what consumers say they will do 12 years from now is best done by Miss Cleo. I don't even trust what listeners say they will do next week.

Then your whole song and dance routine on here is a lie? You can tell me that an oldies station in NYC would flop but you claim you can't trust what listeners will say they will do next week, yet it's OK to invest in a tech that consumers have shown no interest in.

How is Miss Cleo?

 

[Mike Walker]

A)-these things take time. LOTS of time.

B)-radio must "close the deal". Taking her to dinner, and saying she's "pretty" won't be enough if dinner is at McDonalds, and you didn't pay attention to anything she said. You've got to go where SHE want to go, LISTEN TO HER AND ASK QUESTIONS. Be her friend. Call her up not to suggest a date, but to make sure she's ok (after a trip, for instance). Let her initiate contact, and let her know that you have INFINITE patience with her, and interest in satisfying HER needs. Dude, you WILL "close the deal".

In the above scenario "you" (said "Dude") are the radio industry, and "she" is the LISTENER. Make it about HER, and you WILL win! I'm no (insert the name of good looking guy here), but my wife of 30 years is a BABE. We talk for hours EVERY DAY, and I listen. Her birthday's coming up, and I know EXACTLY what she wants...because I LISTEN! If I can "close the deal", anyone can...if they'll take the time to LISTEN to theiir "intended"...THE LISTENER! What would he or she like to hear that isn't being offered now? MAKE SURE THEY KNOW YOU ARE TRYING TO FIND OUT, and MAKE A BIG DEAL ABOUT HAVING LEARNED WHAT THEY NEED, and PROVIDING IT!

The "radio as dating" handbook copyright 2007, Mike Walker Inc. (just kidding)