HOT IS NOT (ANYMORE), QWK ROCK TO MOVE AND MORE COUNTRY ON THE WAY?

[Sandman_316]

Rumor is that Forever is dropping Hot 103 completely, moving QWK Rock to Hot 103's position on the dial and making 98.7 a country station. So, is the move to country in retaliation of the Buzz's recent jump? Does Joe FM stand a snowball's chance in hell of surviving?

Thoughts? Opinions?

 

[Spackler1]

Wow, I was going to post something on this but you beat me to it. Supposed to happen on Friday morning.

I think Forever is a little concerned about 105.9.

Another question would be - how does WGMR benefit from this move, and will they adjust their music once Hot 103 goes away?

 

[Meggawatt]

Gosh these are all good questions...We can only hope Hitman can give us all the answers and tell us what he would have done and how he would do it...maybe Forever realized that they were no match for a station consulted by Paul Drew, Jr.

 

[Spackler1]

more questions for Hitman, or whomever, to answer:

How many times can a station switch frequencies before it has some kind of negative effect on listenership?

Does adding another country station only take money out of Forever's right pocket and move it to the left? It would have to cannibalize sales from Froggy 98.

Will another station step in and switch to CHR?

Will Forever do a Froggy format on 98.7 or something else? Will they simulcast Froggy 98? Why do either when Froggy 98 already has strong ratings in State College?

Will Jerry Valeri ever learn to speak clearly?

Will Bob and Tom continue on 103.1 QWKRock, or is there another morning show in the works?

Glen Turner - country jock?

Glen Turner - One N in Glen or two?

Where is the hole in the market now?

 

[ratingsgeek]

None of this makes any sense. Believe it when you hear it?

 

[radioboss]

When 98.7 was sold originally from the people out of Lock Haven to Forever back in 1999, 98.7 was suppose to be a FROGGY 98 simulcast. But, instead they put on Smooth Jazz.

Now, a little back woods station wishing that they could be a State College station wants to do Country; and YOU really think that Kirby, Donald, and Carol are SCARED!!!

I don't think so!

If anything, they just want to put the screws to Magnum and really hurt them for wanting to take away ad dollars from an audience that is deserving something better than a FROGGY.

However, they may want to consider doing a country format similar to the JR 93.7 in Scranton/Wilkes Barre. You know, New Country Fun and the Legends... Lion Country 98.7FM.

Just a thought.

 

[refthree]

more questions for Hitman, or whomever, to answer:

How many times can a station switch frequencies before it has some kind of negative effect on listenership?

Does adding another country station only take money out of Forever's right pocket and move it to the left? It would have to cannibalize sales from Froggy 98.

Will another station step in and switch to CHR?

Will Forever do a Froggy format on 98.7 or something else? Will they simulcast Froggy 98? Why do either when Froggy 98 already has strong ratings in State College?

Will Jerry Valeri ever learn to speak clearly?

Will Bob and Tom continue on 103.1 QWKRock, or is there another morning show in the works?

Glen Turner - country jock?

Glen Turner - One N in Glen or two?

Where is the hole in the market now?

since coming to the area I have been paying a lot of attention to the stations that make up the market. this is not a professional opinionlike the hitman's, just an opinion.

1. as many times as they want when there is no other station to challenge them
2. probably. As long as the money keeps coming in it won't matter to anyone but joe
3. neccessity is the mother of invention
4. a simulcast of froggy seems to be the most cost effective
5. probably not but people still seem to love him
6. more than likely yes
7. no
8. two
9. there is none

 

[Spackler1]

We'll see if it happens. I hear it's a done deal.

It's interesting that they are dumping Hot because they can't sell it, yet they replace it with another country station, which they already have and can already sell. Unless they do a different type of country format, they are only going to be shifting sales around between a couple of their properties. I don't see how they come out ahead.

 

[ratingsgeek]

The lesson here is "Be nice to your sales staff." If they don't sell spots on your station, your station goes away. Regardless of the ratings.

 

[Magnum]

It looks like the switch happened. I went to www.qwkrock.com, and they display a message stating that they're now broadcasting on 103.1. They're also temporarily broadcasting on 98.7.

 

[ratingsgeek]

Quick, Quick. Bob & Tom + Bob & Tom. What does Quick gain from this shift? Is the '04 State High grad back from Yale still looking for them at 97.1? How do we explain this to him without making him feel like he shoulda gone to HAAC instead? How long can two FMs in the same market simulcast? Forever? So to speak.

 

[Spackler1]

Quick, Quick. Bob & Tom + Bob & Tom. What does Quick gain from this shift? Is the '04 State High grad back from Yale still looking for them at 97.1? How do we explain this to him without making him feel like he shoulda gone to HAAC instead? How long can two FMs in the same market simulcast? Forever? So to speak.

About a week. They'll roll out whatever they're doing on 98.7 soon.

 

[shilton]

It's interesting that they are dumping Hot because they can't sell it

Well...I may not know EVERYTHING..but as an ad buyer myself, the rates are a bit steep comared to oh...say what you can get from G101? Maybe the big agencies will pay $25.00 a pop for a spot, but the mom and pop shops won't. I was quoted an ad pak on Hot for $1500 for a month. Got the SAME pak from G for 60% of that. Same music...same message to the audience...you be the judge. Hot is (was) overpriced and that is why it did not sell. We all know and admit they had one heck of an audience.

 

[Spackler1]

I haven't seen a book so this is just speculation, but I'll bet Hot had a larger metro cume, longer TSL, and bigger share than WGMR in any demo that is important and targeted in that format. I also think that with what Hot was billing, a little negotiation would bring their rates down substantially.

 

[ratingsgeek]

Depending on the specific demo, Hot had anywhere between double and quadruple the audience of 101. So, as an example, if Hot wanted $25 for ads to reach 4 times GMR's audience, Steve would have had to get spots on 101 at $6 each to get the same efficiency. If he paid $15 on 101 (as he indicates) he got screwed big time. But even if he got 'em for $1 each he would have missed 3/4 of the demo. Cheap ain't always better. But he didn't really need Arbitron to tell him Hot was hammering GMR, did he? Did anyone else in town not know this?

 

[shilton]

Depending on the specific demo, Hot had anywhere between double and quadruple the audience of 101. So, as an example, if Hot wanted $25 for ads to reach 4 times GMR's audience, Steve would have had to get spots on 101 at $6 each to get the same efficiency. If he paid $15 on 101 (as he indicates) he got screwed big time. But even if he got 'em for $1 each he would have missed 3/4 of the demo. Cheap ain't always better. But he didn't really need Arbitron to tell him Hot was hammering GMR, did he? Did anyone else in town not know this?

I see 2 problems with your theory.

#1...you are assuming the book is the be all and end all of how stations measure success. Its amazing how when one has a great book, there is a big rah-rah pep rally, but when the book is so-so...its FOUL...the numbers are not right. Fact is if you are billing enough to pay the bills and you have a reasonably faithful audience, you can call yourself sucessful. G101 meets that criteria as far as I am concerned.

#2...you are forgetting that all the Hot 103 fans just lost their favorite radio station and where do you think they are gonna go??? For us, this is a great move...went from being the underdog in everyone's eyes to being the only game in town. I'll take that position anyday and we welcome ALL Hot's audience...they sure aren't flocking to listen to the Bus or QWK or whatever else may be out there. Maybe they will hit 107.9 looking for the old Hot and get saved instead...but I am betting they will land on G101 and we love it!

 

[Spackler1]

#2...you are forgetting that all the Hot 103 fans just lost their favorite radio station and where do you think they are gonna go??? For us, this is a great move...went from being the underdog in everyone's eyes to being the only game in town. I'll take that position anyday and we welcome ALL Hot's audience...they sure aren't flocking to listen to the Bus or QWK or whatever else may be out there. Maybe they will hit 107.9 looking for the old Hot and get saved instead...but I am betting they will land on G101 and we love it!

That's assuming that the rumor of a country format isn't a dodge, and that they won't start simulcasting their Hot stations on 98.7, 99.1, and 100.1. This isn't what I would do, but it might be what they would do.

 

[ratingsgeek]

It's also assuming that ex-Hot listeners would tune to 101 under any circumstances. Mr. Hilton has managed to go this long without understanding how ratings work or why advertisers use them (a fairly amazing stretch of denial: 10 years? 15 years?), so we shouldn't expect him to understand why listeners stay away from 101 in droves--much less why Hot's disappearance won't change that. After all, he's their consultant; he's guided them to where they are today.

 

[Spackler1]

Most advertisers don't "use" ratings - stations use them to sell advertising. Agencies mis-use them under a false assumption that there is a magic formula that will provide their clients with results.

Arbitron methodology is flawed and sample size is too small. To repeat a cliche, if you live by the numbers, you die by the numbers.

Under the current market conditions, WGMR can't not pick up some listeners. It won't be reflected in the Spring book, but if things remain the way they are, I think you'll see it happen. WGMR sounds much, much better than it has in several years.

 

[XCountry285]

Nope not yet, as of this past weekend on Saturday, they were playing Staind-Right Here. It sounds like they are still here