How far off can you be?

[bpatrick]

The September 15, 1979 issue of TV Guide featured a prediction
of the top 15 shows for 1979-80. Apparently former CBS programmer
Michael Dann, who compiled this list, thought--like most people--that
ABC would continue on top. We know that didn't happen; CBS regained
the number-one slot that year. Below is Dann's list, with the show's
actual finish in parentheses (source: Brooks and Marsh), then the actual
list.

Mike Dann's List:

1. Three's Company (ABC) (#2)
2. Happy Days (ABC) (#17)
3. Laverne & Shirley (ABC) (finished out of the top 30,
hurt by a move from Tuesday to Thursday)
4. Mork & Mindy (ABC) (#27, hurt by a move from Thursday
to Sunday)
5. Taxi (ABC) (#13)
6. Eight Is Enough (ABC) (#12, barely nosing out its competitor,
Real People)
7. 60 Minutes (CBS) (#1, the first news program to reach those
heights)
8. The Associates (ABC) (canceled)
9. Barney Miller (ABC) (tied at #20 with Charlie's Angels)
10. ABC Sunday Night Movie (tied at #29 with Tenspeed And Brown
Shoe, Vega$, and Knots Landing)
11. Benson (ABC) (tied at #23 with The Love Boat)
12. M*A*S*H (CBS) (tied at #4 with Alice)
13. Little House On The Prairie (NBC) (#16)
14. Angie (ABC) (finished out of the top 30)
15. The Love Boat (ABC) (tied at #23 with Benson)

The Actual List:

1. 60 Minutes (CBS)
2. Three's Company (ABC)
3. That's Incredible (ABC) (midseason starter)
4. Alice (CBS)
M*A*S*H (CBS)
6. Dallas (CBS)
7. Flo (CBS) (midseason starter)
8. The Jeffersons (CBS)
9. The Dukes Of Hazzard (CBS)
10. One Day At A Time (CBS)
11. Archie Bunker's Place (CBS)
12. Eight Is Enough (ABC)
13. Taxi (ABC)
14. House Calls (CBS) (midseason starter)
Real People (NBC)

 

[cowboybud]

The author didn't foresee the dominant ABC sitcoms all jumping the shark at about the same time.

 

[Charles1]

Not only was there a lot of shark jumping, but more importantly, there were some incredibly dumb scheduling moves by the Alphabet Network. Moving so many popular shows out of the time slots people were accustomed to seeing them in had to have hurt their popularity.

 

[onairb]

The ratings drop for Happy Days seems curious...did people really desert it because it lost its lead-OUT program, Laverne and Shirley?
Interesting that the only successful new program on ABC that was on the schedule the entire season was Benson; that show spent most of the rest of its life on Fridays,varying between 8 and 9, where it presumably was trounced by CBS's lineup(The Dukes, The Hulk and Dallas), but hung tough for 7 years(although it briefly returned to Thursdays at one point, and died in the Saturday-night graveyard in early 1986). No network today would stick with a program like that as long as ABC did; one can only wonder what ratings it might have pulled had it remained on Thursdays.

 

[dustintv]

I wonder how many stations that had switched away from NBC to ABC in the late 70s were kicking themselves by 1985/1986?

 

[mleach]

The September 15, 1979 issue of TV Guide featured a prediction
of the top 15 shows for 1979-80. Apparently former CBS programmer
Michael Dann, who compiled this list, thought--like most people--that
ABC would continue on top. We know that didn't happen; CBS regained
the number-one slot that year. Below is Dann's list, with the show's
actual finish in parentheses (source: Brooks and Marsh), then the actual
list.

Mike Dann's List:

8. The Associates (ABC) (canceled)

"The Associates" doesn't surprise me that it made the list since afterall that show ( early Martin Short ) was a darling with the critics. Even those who had spoke out against TV loved this show. Of course what the critics loved doesn't allway mean the viewers would love it too. Take for example the early 1979 NBC sitcom "Turnabout" which starred Sharon Gless & John Schuck. US Magazine for example had called "Turnabout" "the best sitcom ever, even better than I Love Lucy !!!"

"Turnabout" lasted just seven episodes and is just about forgotten today.

Of course it works the other way too..critics hating a TV show but it ends up being loved by many viewers. Can we say Gilligan's Island.....

 

[bpatrick]

"Laverne & Shirley" had barely outrated "Happy Days" for
a couple of years, but "Happy Days" was beginning to show
its age in 1979; after all, it had been on since January 1974,
and its core audience was already beginning to desert it (although
the coup de grace wouldn't be delivered until 1983, in the form
of NBC's "The A-Team").

ABC made three dumb moves that year: moving "L&S" to Thursday,
"Mork & Mindy" to Sunday (where, to most of the industry's surprise,
"Archie Bunker's Place" cleaned its clock), and "Fantasy Island" to
Friday. Although all three shows moved back to their old timeslots,
only "Fantasy Island" regained most of its former ratings strength.
But Steve Allen wrote at the time, that even if ABC had never moved
"Mork & Mindy" its ratings would, in all likelihood, have dropped anyway,
because Robin Williams is one of those comedians best taken in small doses,
because he's so hyper when he's on.

"The Associates," I think, suffered from being on the wrong network;
it was another case of ABC trying to do a CBS-type sitcom (although somebody
might argue that "Barney Miller" and "Taxi" were CBS-type shows--"Barney Miller"
gained an audience after Time and Newsweek did stories about an early episode
where Wojo fell in love with a prostitute played by Linda Lavin, and "Taxi" had
the benefit of the "Three's Company" lead-in, which helped both shows survive).
Also, I don't think anyone expected CBS to dominate Sunday night so thoroughly.
That season was full of surprises.

 

[Markxxx]

Also Mork and Mindy was a disaster the second year when they tried to become more "youth" oriented and dumped the father and grandmother, who were resonable funny, for three young people who definately were NOT funny.

ABC had a way of "tinkering" with shows that ruined them. The best example of this is Angie, which was a typical "fish out of water" type sitcom that was re-arranged the second year and took the whole point out of it. Moving the rich husband Brad totally into Angie's world, ignoring his world totally.

The burn out rate of ABC's comedies seemed to be faster than that of other comedies. It should be noted NBC was still at the nader of it's existance, and if not for Gary Coleman and Johnny Carson would've totally tanked.

 

[azumanga]

It should be noted NBC was still at the nader of it's existance, and if not for Gary Coleman and Johnny Carson would've totally tanked.

No doubt a group of "Real People" introducing other real people to viewers might've kept NBC from being a total loss.

 

[gr8oldies]

IIRC, "Anna and the King" was to be the big hit of 1972-73. It debuted on Sunday night and was followed by MASH, which was not expected to do anything. Anna lasted half a season and the rest is history.

It's amazing how long CBS was able to milk the Archie Bunker franchise, first with Meathead and Gloria leaving, Jean Stapleton's Edith first doing limited appearances then leaving completely, so that Archie was the only one standing, along with a couple of teenage girls he somehow inherited.

 

[mleach]

It should be noted NBC was still at the nader of it's existance, and if not for Gary Coleman and Johnny Carson would've totally tanked.

No doubt a group of "Real People" introducing other real people to viewers might've kept NBC from being a total loss.

NBC really was in "love" with Real People. Sometime ago some guy ( an employee for NBC back in the late 70's ) had posted some rather interesting stuff about NBC and the show "Real People" on the Jump the Shark site. Not only did NBC enjoy the high ratings that Real People was giving them at the time ( and being such a cheap show to do didn't hurt ) but NBC really had high hopes with that show's host. During her time with "Real People" Sarah Purcell was actually offered a position with the Today show ( she turned it down ) and Skip Stevenson was in 1979 NBC's top choice to replace Johnny Carson had he decided to retire. Of course that didn't happen because Carson didn't retire and also by the early 80's Skip Stevenson's drug and mental problems came to the attention of NBC. Stevenson would be dead a little over 10 years later..

Of course it may be a bit of a stetch to say that "Real People" had saved NBC back in the late 70's/early 80's..but it was one show that NBC really respected anyway.

 

[bpatrick]

And why not? In the 1979-80 season "Real People"
was NBC's highest-rated show and maintained good
ratings until that era of "reality" shows ended in the
mid-'80s. I would be tempted to argue that, aside from
Carson, three shows kept NBC afloat in the Silverman era:
"Little House On The Prairie," "Real People," and "Diff'rent
Strokes" (although a few others, like "Facts Of Life," "CHiPs,"
and "Quincy," might make this list). "The A-Team" comes
from the Tinker/Tartikoff era and is usually considered the
beginning of NBC's turnaround.

 

[mleach]

If I am not mistaking I am pretty sure NBC come really close to actually cancelling "Facts of Life"after just a handful of epsiodes but decided to keep Facts of Life if they got rid of most of the cast including headmaster Mr. Bradley ( John Lawlor ) and an unknown Molly Ringwald.

I have seen many of interviews over the years with Molly Ringwald ( though not recently )..and I don't believe she has ever mentioned about her time on Facts. Maybe that is a part of her life she wants to forget..shades of Nancy McKeon.

Come to think of it I don't think John Lawlor has even talked about being on that show either as far as interviews are concerned.

 

[bpatrick]

It could be that NBC nearly canceled it (I don't recall) but I
do know that it turned into a durable hit after those first few
months in 1979. It ran until 1986, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[firepoint525]

Not only was there a lot of shark jumping, but more importantly, there were some incredibly dumb scheduling moves by the Alphabet Network.  Moving so many popular shows out of the time slots people were accustomed to seeing them in had to have hurt their popularity.

When a network moves a long-running show to a different night (after years of previously having been on the same (one!) given evening), isn't that usually a sign that a network is trying to "kill off" that show, often by putting it up against far better (and newer) programming on another network, where it doesn't stand a chance?

 

[firepoint525]

It could be that NBC nearly canceled it (I don't recall) but I
do know that it turned into a durable hit after those first few
months in 1979. It ran until 1986, if I'm not mistaken.

Unfortunately, Facts of Life ran until 1988. The four main girls on the show were all grown by then.

 

[azumanga]

It could be that NBC nearly canceled it (I don't recall) but I
do know that it turned into a durable hit after those first few
months in 1979. It ran until 1986, if I'm not mistaken.

Unfortunately, Facts of Life ran until 1988. The four main girls on the show were all grown by then.

Furthermore, it outlasted its parent show, "Diff'rent Strokes" (1978-1986), by a year, two if you exclude ABC.

 

[bpatrick]

OK, I stand corrected: 1988. I never could stand "Facts Of Life"
so I don't even remember when NBC canceled it.

In the case of networks moving shows to new times, usually that
happens when a show is on its last legs (I remember when ABC
moved "Who's The Boss?" to Saturdays during its last season), but
in the 1979-80 season ABC thought it could win every night by taking
its number-one show from the previous year, "Laverne & Shirley," moving
it to Thursday, and (presumably) doing even better than "Mork & Mindy"
did; move "Mork & Mindy" (their highest-rated show from the previous year)
to win back the Sunday audience lost when "Battlestar Galactica" occupied
the time; and putting "Fantasy Island" in Donny & Marie's timeslot on Fridays.

History shows these moves generally don't work; two in particular: NBC's moving
"The Man From U.N.C.L.E." from a strong Friday timeslot to Mondays against a
resurgent "Gunsmoke" in 1967, and "Bonanza" to Tuesdays against the red-hot
"Maude" in 1972 (Dan Blocker's death that summer would probably have killed it
anyway). But ABC wasn't trying to "destroy" any of their shows. The operative
word is "greed."

 

[onairb]

I think 'Mork and Mindy' probably would have lasted as long as it did anyway, even without a format change. I believe the last episode left the door open for a fifth season; Mork and Mindy were time-traveling while trying to stop some villainous alien who had initially been a friend of theirs(played by Murphy Brown's Joe Regalbuto), but the episode ended with them leaving the stone age, and 'apparently' headed for their own time...the last image of the episode was a cave-drawing of the two of them, with no other indication where they would end up.
Interestingly, 'Mork and Mindy' 's lead-out that first season, was moved, and eventually cancelled, for losing too much of the lead-in audience...'What's Happening!!!'

"Laverne & Shirley" had barely outrated "Happy Days" for
a couple of years, but "Happy Days" was beginning to show
its age in 1979; after all, it had been on since January 1974,
and its core audience was already beginning to desert it (although
the coup de grace wouldn't be delivered until 1983, in the form
of NBC's "The A-Team").

ABC made three dumb moves that year: moving "L&S" to Thursday,
"Mork & Mindy" to Sunday (where, to most of the industry's surprise,
"Archie Bunker's Place" cleaned its clock), and "Fantasy Island" to
Friday. Although all three shows moved back to their old timeslots,
only "Fantasy Island" regained most of its former ratings strength.
But Steve Allen wrote at the time, that even if ABC had never moved
"Mork & Mindy" its ratings would, in all likelihood, have dropped anyway,
because Robin Williams is one of those comedians best taken in small doses,
because he's so hyper when he's on.

"The Associates," I think, suffered from being on the wrong network;
it was another case of ABC trying to do a CBS-type sitcom (although somebody
might argue that "Barney Miller" and "Taxi" were CBS-type shows--"Barney Miller"
gained an audience after Time and Newsweek did stories about an early episode
where Wojo fell in love with a prostitute played by Linda Lavin, and "Taxi" had
the benefit of the "Three's Company" lead-in, which helped both shows survive).
Also, I don't think anyone expected CBS to dominate Sunday night so thoroughly.
That season was full of surprises.

 

[mleach]

OK, I stand corrected: 1988. I never could stand "Facts Of Life"
so I don't even remember when NBC canceled it.

I doubt it would be easy to find ANYONE willing to admit that they were a fan of "The Facts of Life"? LOL

Wanna see someone get really mad? If you ever see Nancy McKeon in a restaurant..walk up to her and scream "...OMG...IT"S JO POLNIACZEK !! I WOULDN'T MIND HAVING YOU TEACH ME THE FACTS OF LIFE BABY !!.."

Ah...she may bite your head off LOL