How is Radio like Records, TV and Newspapers?

[JohnGault]

My thoughts. Interested in yours, and how you think Radio will evolve in 1-5-10 years.

To look into our future, I think we can draw parallels to other media and the struggles they are dealing with.

RECORDS. Easy access to the product (music) without paying for it is causing steady declines in revenue. Even the biggest acts are not selling the tonnage they used to. Huge stars like Madonna are signing deals without labels. Radiohead experimenting with online first distribution. Rap is dead. Wanna see something hilarious:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=5PsnxDQvQpw&feature=related

Global distribution is now virtually free, opening up competition to anyone, but destroying the existing business model. Within a year or 2 the CD will be dead. Box retailers will no longer stock it, as they can't justify the shelf space and operate on very thin margins. Record stores mostly closed already. In 2000, the ten top-selling albums in the U.S. sold a combined 60 million copies; in 2006, the top ten sold just 25 million. The Future: Great time to be a consumer, tough time to be in the buggy whip business. Lots of great artists will do it for mostly love and make their money touring.

TELEVISION. The current writers strike is really about way more than paying the writers more money under the old "percentages" business model. That business model is also collapsing. The internet is severely eroding TV viewing time, and the networks are looking at how to cut costs, not add new expenses. Today 25% of TV viewers have DVR's and are skipping commercials, that number will grow to at least 85 percent in a few years. Reality Shows are one answer - formula filler that costs much less to make, and is happening "now" so you might watch it live. Seriously, are people freaking out that Grey's Anatomy is out of new episodes? No. They have plenty to take up their time. Why not pick up a DVD box set of all the great shows you missed the first time? Oh, by the way: NO COMMERCIALS there. the Sopranos? Heroes, anyone? The Future: Great time to be a consumer, tough time to be in the buggy whip business. Dramas will be less common on Networks, DVD sales of Pay Channel dramatic series will increase. Free TV will degrade into the equivalent of a shuck and jive morning zoo - cheap reality programming, tabloid news, and game shows.

NEWSPAPERS. Since Newspapers took very little bandwidth to duplicate online, they were the first to be buggy whipped. Ad Revenues inflation adjusted are off 20% from 10 years ago. All other costs have skyrocked, making it even worse than it looks. Already consolidated, more to come. Staff cuts worse than any other media- more to come. Bloggers will not replace newspapers, but they will compete for your time. Oh yeah, they are interesting, uninhibited, and FREE. Great time to be a news consumer, lousy time to be invested in buggy whips.

While there will be more crap, creativity and freedom will be served. The old guard is powerless to prevent this.

HOW DO YOU MAKE MONEY, when your competition is nimble, interesting, full of variety, and FREE?

 

[Mike Sheridan]

Wow, I think you summed it up well. I don't know what I could add to your excellent post.

The only thing I don't agree with is Rap being dead. It's alive and well unfortunately. Rap to me has always been big on attitude short on real talent. Music on the radio right now seems over researched, tired and uninspired. There are exceptions to the rule.

 

[Radknowski]

Thanks for the link to the YouTube video. Outstanding. Parody is such a beautiful thing in the hands of genius. That guy nailed it.

It seems "immediacy and intimacy" are at least two advantages that radio has over most other media. Radio can provide these advantages relatively inexpensively for the operators, too. Snow storm? Got it covered. Traffic? Covered. Heath Ledger? Sorry, it's true. Stock market? Don't look now, but...

There are men and women in the front lines of radio who have ideas and talent, but they're not being given the opportunities to play to their strengths. How many people on these boards, whether you're reading Buffalo-Rochester or Atlanta, talk about the need for live bodies and localism 24-7?

Radio needs to be rehabilitated... not with Jack and Dave music formats or satellite talk formats, but with live men and women in front of the microphones who can speak, connect and relate to listeners 24-7, plying and enhancing radio's strengths.

Across America, from Portland to Portland, there's a need for the human element on the radio in all formats, from Smooth Jazz to Active Rock to News-Talk. Until that need is filled, radio is destined to lurch toward the buggy whip manufacturing model.

Here's an interesting perspective from Wired http://www.wired.com/culture/culturereviews/magazine/16-02/su_radio that may or may not be entirely correct, but worth the read.

Start the rehabilitation process with live men and women on the air and let them use the technology to enhance their capabilities.

 

[Bob1370]

"HOW DO YOU MAKE MONEY, when your competition is nimble, interesting, full of variety, and FREE?"

Actually, "nimble, interesting, full of variety and FREE" is precisely what GOOD LIVE PERSONALITY RADIO is and does best...and it's user-friendly in a way your iPod or even your CD deck is not.

If we go back to first principles of what has made successful radio stations successful over the years, we should be able to bring a lot of lost listeners (and the revenue they represent) back. Question is, can the bean counters running a lot of this business get their heads out of their ledgers, and see the world in time to respond to it?

 

[JohnGault]

Lots of commercials, same limited playlist, few interactive features make radio less hip.

The competition I am thinking of is Youtube, Myspace, Blogs, Podcasts, DVR's and Limewire. Plus a host of ther services like Pandora.com that will multiply faster than you can say WOW!

The user has everything on demand there.

When the delivery system shifts to INTERNET, how will radio compete? When your car has access to the entire media world, and includes commercial free music in any variety you want, will you still care about a DJ who is talking to you one directionally, interspersed with 16 or more units and hour? Even if it happens to be someone in your city? The younger generation is already gone. THEY ARE NOT COMING BACK.

Wifi in the car is coming fast. Microsoft is running tests on unused TV frequencies to deliver super hi speed Internet to vehicles. The "Limited Channels" days are over. The very notion of what a RADIO is will be turned on its head.

What will the big boys do?

 

[Kal]

Records: Can be used as 'Frisbees'. (78's fly exceptionally well!)
TV: Can induce a coma with little or no effort.
Newspapers: Can spread on the floor while painting or wrap fish heads in them.
Radio: Can be used as a distraction while driving the Thruway from Buffalo to Rochester.

I don't think any of them are really alike except that they are ALL 'yesterday's media'.

Kal

 

[SirRoxalot]

The delivery medium that can deliver compelling content, and charge for it in a way that the consumer finds palatable, will succeed.

Newspapers have larger staffs that can do more in-depth content. Delivering it daily on paper is history, not news, and has a place, but the web is where they can remain relevant and timely.

Recording companies still have the technical expertise to create superior recordings, and the mechanism to market new music. The delivery mechanism has fallen behind, and the model used to charge for content needs to be revamped. Anti-piracy and copy-protection measures will be beefed up, and Internet delivery will be king.

TV won't be going away soon. Once again, it's the delivery system that will change. You'll be able to download your favorite program, but it will cost you a buck. Time-sensitive content, like news, will still be on free broadcast, but you'll have to endure commercials. New content will be on commercial TV, while re-runs are more likely to go the download route. Time-shifting DVRs, etc., will be ignored because they require more user interaction than the majority of people are willing to invest. Do you really expect people who can't set the time on their VCR to deal with a DVD-R/W or DVR? Simplicity is king - even for busy, technologically adept people who are multi-tasking full-time.

For my thoughts on radio, see "Business As Usual"

 

[JohnGault]

Newspapers have larger staffs that can do more in-depth content. Delivering it daily on paper is history, not news, and has a place, but the web is where they can remain relevant and timely.

Maybe the D & C is different from the rest of the industry. Newspaper Layoffs began early on in the Internet era. Nationally , newspapers have "slashed staffs, shuttered bureaus and cut back on newsholes."

Recording companies still have the technical expertise to create superior recordings, and the mechanism to market new music. The delivery mechanism has fallen behind, and the model used to charge for content needs to be revamped. Anti-piracy and copy-protection measures will be beefed up, and Internet delivery will be king.

Humbly disagree on this too. The BEST music is made for almost free these days, and recording costs are nil. Heard of Pro Tools? Heard of YouTube and Myspace? Not only do the old guard not have any advantage, they are saddled with huge unrecoupable overhead. They will be left for dead, nothing more than accounting firms collecting publishing on existing catalogue. At least they own some intellectual property. Once the talent leaves, radio doesn't even have that.

TV won't be going away soon. Once again, it's the delivery system that will change. You'll be able to download your favorite program, but it will cost you a buck. Time-sensitive content, like news, will still be on free broadcast, but you'll have to endure commercials. New content will be on commercial TV, while re-runs are more likely to go the download route. Time-shifting DVRs, etc., will be ignored because they require more user interaction than the majority of people are willing to invest. Do you really expect people who can't set the time on their VCR to deal with a DVD-R/W or DVR? Simplicity is king - even for busy, technologically adept people who are multi-tasking full-time.

Partially agree on this... though the time shifting numbers will be devastating to revenues. At 25% penetration, I've read studies that suggest that 9% commercials are skipped. If DVR numbers triple (conservative estimate), that's a 28% decline in value. TV Networks: Not exactly a growth stock.

I have some experience beyond radio. This is a major landscape shift.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Maybe the D & C is different from the rest of the industry. Newspaper Layoffs began early on in the Internet era. Nationally , newspapers have "slashed staffs, shuttered bureaus and cut back on newsholes."

I don't know much about the D&C other than it's a Gannett paper. If it's like the other Gannett papers that I've experienced in my past travels, it's like a local USA Today Lite.

The Buffalo News - my local paper, is a pretty good newspaper. They've cut some positions, and attrition has reduced the number of people on the high end of the payscale, but the Buffalo News is still a very good newspaper. They've also committed to a strong web presence, and do it well.

The BEST music is made for almost free these days, and recording costs are nil. Heard of Pro Tools? Heard of YouTube and Myspace? Not only do the old guard not have any advantage, they are saddled with huge unrecoupable overhead. They will be left for dead, nothing more than accounting firms collecting publishing on existing catalogue. At least they own some intellectual property. Once the talent leaves, radio doesn't even have that.

Yes, I've heard of Pro Tools, Adobe Audition, Cool Edit Pro, Sonic Foundry, Sound Forge, and a host of others. Yes, you can do some very powerful things with them IF you have the talent, and IF you have the experience, equipment, and capability of recording musical instruments, voices, and effects cleanly. There is no comparison between a GOOD professional recording and the amateur efforts found on many websites - and some recordings distributed by recording companies at the insistance of artists.

The video quality of YouTube is laughable. The audio quality of Myspace recordings varies from professional to awful. I will grant you that there is a segment of the population that finds the audio quality of low bit-rate MP3s and satellite radio acceptable. There is still a significant market for GOOD audio and video, and you still need a record company to get your music known widely.

I have some experience beyond radio. This is a major landscape shift.

The Digital Age is a major landscape shift. It touches virtually every sector of every industry. Our country has outsourced manufacturing and heavy industry to concentrate on intellectual property, marketing, and distribution of goods. Digital technology and communications have completely revamped the design and management of production and distribution, globalizing both production and marketing.

Radio today is much different than it was in 1990. Current management bought into the idea that "music is the product" and anything that interrupted the flow of music was a tune-out factor. In fact, it's becoming clearing that programming is the product, and music is only one component of programming. Music has always been available from other sources. What radio provided in the past was entertainment and/or informational value in addition to music. That "added value" is what was programmed out, and radio has suffered as a result.