How much longer do music based formats on FM have?

[Radiopaw]

A simple point to make.

Nobody would have thought Radio would surpass cable TV — streaming is slowly killing both, just one (TV) is being killed faster than the other.

We do not know.

I think music will always exist in most places in at least a few commercial formats — until radio doesn’t.

I give AM radio around 10 years, I give FM around 25. These are largely just estimates based on trends.

It’s impossible to know what the world will be like even 5 years from now.

 

[yeoldeschool]

So if a point comes where people are looking for a cheaper alternative to music on demand services, then radio may be seen as that cheap alternative. But for that to work, they have to get their costs down so they can cut the commercial loads. My point is there are lots of variables, and we never know how consumers will react, or what will be the thing that causes them to change.

Look at my post here and the thread it's in, in general. I wonder if what you are describing also occurred to the automakers, and whether the complaints being reported in that thread about apparently "sabotaged" receivers in the latest cars could be a preemptive move against a reversion to free, ad-supported radio.

By the way, David, thanks for the thorough response, but one correction. I didn't mean to say AM began losing listeners in 1978, but that it began losing its dominance with them over FM in 1978. That was the first year FM had more listeners than AM, and somehow in my mind, that, not the 1960s, counts as the beginning of its descending-to-earth years.

 

[TheBigA]

Look at my post here and the thread it's in, in general. I wonder if what you are describing also occurred to the automakers, and whether the complaints being reported in that thread about apparently "sabotaged" receivers in the latest cars could be a preemptive move against a reversion to free, ad-supported radio.

Car makers get paid to install SiriusXM. There's obviously some kind of money involved with CarPlay. None of the broadcasting companies have any ownership in electronics manufacturing. They can't really do much about devices. Perhaps that has to change. At one time some electronics manufacturers were also in radio ownership. RCA, GE, Westinghouse, and Crosley come to mind. Now with manufacturing being done in China, there's no connection between radio companies and the radio devices. Which is why those radio companies are investing so much in streaming their signals. In the case of iHeart and Audacy, they own their streaming platforms. Radio has no control over quality of car radios.

 

[radiofan2023]

A simple point to make.

Nobody would have thought Radio would surpass cable TV — streaming is slowly killing both, just one (TV) is being killed faster than the other.

We do not know.

I think music will always exist in most places in at least a few commercial formats — until radio doesn’t.

I give AM radio around 10 years, I give FM around 25. These are largely just estimates based on trends.

It’s impossible to know what the world will be like even 5 years from now.

I think it will depend on the music format, and some stations who keep formats like alternative will have to turn into noncomms, just as some AAA stations are currently noncomms, like KTBG.

 

[Kelly A]

Look at my post here and the thread it's in, in general. I wonder if what you are describing also occurred to the automakers, and whether the complaints being reported in that thread about apparently "sabotaged" receivers in the latest cars could be a preemptive move against a reversion to free, ad-supported radio.

I read that post, and over the years have seen similar ones complaining that the auto manufacturers are somehow intentionally 'sabotaging' the quality of radios is nothing more than a radio nerd conspiracy theory with no merit. Vehicle electronics manufacturers care very much about the opinion of most consumers. If one is complaining about sound quality solely based on the quality of AM reception in the vehicle, I argue that it's because research indicated to the manufacturer that considering AM is mainly voice grade, and is not a consideration in 99.99% of ownership satisfaction. They don't build vehicle entertainment systems for .001% of potential buyers. All the tuner chips in-vehicle entertainment systems are SDR's and can be set for whatever bandwidth is available. Still, the laws of physics dictate that widening the bandwidth reduces sensitivity.
Two of our vehicles are newer with shark-fin antennas. I've been amazed at how well they work even while driving in downtown D.C. The variable amplifiers which work together with the radio SDR are amazing in determining the best signal amplification bandwidth filtering, and audio EQ to keep the station listenable and reduce noise.

 

[michael hagerty]

Car makers get paid to install SiriusXM. There's obviously some kind of money involved with CarPlay. None of the broadcasting companies have any ownership in electronics manufacturing. They can't really do much about devices. Perhaps that has to change. At one time some electronics manufacturers were also in radio ownership. RCA, GE, Westinghouse, and Crosley come to mind. Now with manufacturing being done in China, there's no connection between radio companies and the radio devices. Which is why those radio companies are investing so much in streaming their signals. In the case of iHeart and Audacy, they own their streaming platforms. Radio has no control over quality of car radios.

Apple is on the record as saying it doesn't charge automakers or pay to get placement for CarPlay. It's a straight pitch---"the majority of your customers have our devices, why not make them happy?"

Google has taken essentially the same approach with Android Auto, though it used the relationships to license its Google built-in system to replace automakers' OS.

Cars with Google built-in | A more connected, personal, and helpful drive.

All your favorite apps, navigation, and entertainment in your car, truck or SUV's infotainment center or dashboard. Adjust settings, stay productive, and control devices in your home with your voice. Do all that and more with Google built-in.

built-in.google

Google tried (with Volvo) to lock Apple CarPlay out and saw the resistance, so now, apart from the new GM EVs, vehicles with Google Built-In support Apple CarPlay as well as Android Auto.

Apple has been less successful with its' whole-car approach, largely because it would allow customization of all screens (including speedometer/tach/temp/oil), and automakers are afraid of allowing their visual identities to be erased.

 

[TheBigA]

Apple is on the record as saying it doesn't charge automakers or pay to get placement for CarPlay. It's a straight pitch---"the majority of your customers have our devices, why not make them happy?"

My point is there's nobody really lobbying for AM/FM radio or overseeing the quality of the devices. The current campaign for AM in every car isn't about the quality of the device...just retaining it in the system. Meanwhile the biggest tech companies in the world are manufacturing their own devices, and ensuring their quality. That's the environment we're in.

 

[b-turner]

My remarks pertain to radio in general but as many stations play music, I this the only way for radio to survive in the long run is to have national formats hosted by top tier talent. You sell it nationally and perhaps have a local rep for a local sale or two to cover a 60 each hour. Naturally time shifting for time zones, but essentially what plays in Miami, New York, Los Angeles, Dallas and Bismarck, North Dakota is the same feed adjusted for time zone.

 

[gr8oldies]

Not all of them play music. The premise of music formats is becoming obsolete. The idea that people are still interested in waiting through long commercial breaks just to get to a song they don't like is outdated. Younger demos want what they want immediately. They also may like multiple genres which is something that a "Format" cannot really deliver...

So let's same I'm at a workplace that has music playing. Who's going to be in charge of the daily playlist?

 

[PTBoardOp93]

So let's same I'm at a workplace that has music playing.

There's no reason for that to be a thing any longer.

 

[gr8oldies]

There's no reason for that to be a thing any longer.

Playing music in a workplace?

 

[radiofan2023]

Playing music in a workplace?

Not when everyone has a phone that they can use to listen to whatever they want. Then there are no arguments about “this song sucks, change the station, no way I love this song”, etc.

 

[RadioGuy1864]

My remarks pertain to radio in general but as many stations play music, I this the only way for radio to survive in the long run is to have national formats hosted by top tier talent. You sell it nationally and perhaps have a local rep for a local sale or two to cover a 60 each hour. Naturally time shifting for time zones, but essentially what plays in Miami, New York, Los Angeles, Dallas and Bismarck, North Dakota is the same feed adjusted for time zone.

Kind of like how European radio is. In Italy, aside from the State RAI1 RAI2 and RAI3 you have Radio 105 (the number 1 private station in Italy) Radio Italia, Radio DJ and a couple more. Top talent, top programming done on a national basis. With one ad buy you cover the entire country.

 

[K.M. Richards]

So if a point comes where people are looking for a cheaper alternative to music on demand services, then radio may be seen as that cheap alternative. But for that to work, they have to get their costs down so they can cut the commercial loads.

You just explained better than I could, A, why I run my format as a jukebox.

Realistically, I am trying to be that alternative to paid streams, with as little clutter as possible. IMHO, the formats with the best research to play the right music mix for their target demos are going to be the survivors ... regardless of transmission mode.

 

[K.M. Richards]

I think it will depend on the music format, and some stations who keep formats like alternative will have to turn into noncomms, just as some AAA stations are currently noncomms, like KTBG.

AAA is much more prevalent on non-comms. There seems to be an expectation by the listeners to us stations above 92 to be more "familiar" in our music selections. Listeners wanting the variety of the AAA format tend to drift down to that end of the band looking.

 

[K.M. Richards]

My remarks pertain to radio in general but as many stations play music, I this the only way for radio to survive in the long run is to have national formats hosted by top tier talent.

I'm not all that certain, given that one reason streaming music services are so popular is the lack of "DJs", that those last five words are a positive factor.

 

[TheBigA]

AAA is much more prevalent on non-comms. There seems to be an expectation by the listeners to us stations above 92 to be more "familiar" in our music selections. Listeners wanting the variety of the AAA format tend to drift down to that end of the band looking.

The reason is less about the music and more about the demographics. Radio can play ANY music, familiar or not. But the familiar music attracts the larger audience that fits the sales demographics. That's what the game is about. Non-com doesn't play that game.

 

[gr8oldies]

Not when everyone has a phone that they can use to listen to whatever they want. Then there are no arguments about “this song sucks, change the station, no way I love this song”, etc.

Everyone is listening to music their own phone while changing oil at an oil change shop, working a factory floor, a cube farm or roofing a house? Don't think so.

 

[K.M. Richards]

The reason is less about the music and more about the demographics. Radio can play ANY music, familiar or not. But the familiar music attracts the larger audience that fits the sales demographics. That's what the game is about. Non-com doesn't play that game.

Circular argument there, A ... listener behavior drives format presentation drives listener behavior.

 

[TheBigA]

Circular argument there, A ... listener behavior drives format presentation drives listener behavior.

I was talking about demographics. AAA audience is older than other genres. You can try for a younger presentation, but that won't change the demographics.