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How much longer do you think HD Radio can go on ?

C

clouseau

The title is a cleaned up paraphrase of a question asked by Supercaster in another thread. As it sort of hijacks the former thread, I thought it deserved it's own as it's actually a fairly insightful question.

That question is...

Assuming HD radio grows at it's current rate, how much longer will HD radio continue?

I suspect the answers will show how well the respondents really understand radio as a whole.

I will respond to this question in a little while. In the meantime, anyone want to step out and take a whack at it?

Clouseau
 
"Key financials for iBiquity Digital Corporation"

"Company Type Private 2005 Sales (mil.) $9.3 2005 Employees 94"

http://www.hoovers.com/ibiquity-digital/--ID__140169--/free-co-factsheet.xhtml

"Turning Up The Heat On iBiquity" February 2005

"iBiquity was founded 15 years ago, and has raised more than $135M, and that doesn't count the years and cash that the company burned through when it was incubated by Lucent and Westinghouse. iBiquity has raised what it calls the final round - $20M - and it's now finally bringing its digital radio products to market. We wouldn't want to be part of the management team if the products don't get early traction."

http://www.thealarmclock.com/mt/archives/2005/02/turning_up_the.html

Well, that is a tough question - the weakest link in the equation seems to be iBiquity. iBiquity has about 100 employees and grossed $4,000,000 in 2004 and $9,300,000 in 2005 - these articles are two years old. If iBiquity received $40 for each of the estimated 150,000 HD radios sold, that would be only $6,000,000. I assume, that iBiquity has also received $25,000 for each of the 1,200 HD licensing fees, or about $30,000,000. I would have no idea, what it would cost to run a company of about 100 employees. Also, it depends on how much of the venture capital iBiquity has burned through.
 
PocketRadio said:
"Key financials for iBiquity Digital Corporation"

"Company Type Private 2005 Sales (mil.) $9.3 2005 Employees 94"

http://www.hoovers.com/ibiquity-digital/--ID__140169--/free-co-factsheet.xhtml

"Turning Up The Heat On iBiquity" February 2005

"iBiquity was founded 15 years ago, and has raised more than $135M, and that doesn't count the years and cash that the company burned through when it was incubated by Lucent and Westinghouse. iBiquity has raised what it calls the final round - $20M - and it's now finally bringing its digital radio products to market. We wouldn't want to be part of the management team if the products don't get early traction."

http://www.thealarmclock.com/mt/archives/2005/02/turning_up_the.html

Well, that is a tough question - the weakest link in the equation seems to be iBiquity. iBiquity has about 100 employees and grossed $4,000,000 in 2004 and $9,300,000 in 2005 - these articles are two years old. If iBiquity received $40 for each of the estimated 150,000 HD radios sold, that would be only $6,000,000. I assume, that iBiquity has also received $25,000 for each of the 1,200 HD licensing fees, or about $30,000,000. I would have no idea, what it would cost to run a company of about 100 employees. Also, it depends on how much of the venture capital iBiquity has burned through.
Click to expand...

OK let's assume the bad news you post is factual... (Not a given)

Does the demise of Ibiquity cause the demise of HD?

Do you think the bankrupcy of Sirius or XM means the end of satellite radio??

I'll bet not... You think Ibiquity out of business = no HD radio?

I wouldn't have bet you would have been so shallow.

Clouseau
 

Perhaps the best way to try and answer this question is to list the reasons HD Radio might "Go Away".

1) The Licensing mechanism is unavailable or unreasonable.

2) Operating HD Radio becomes cost prohibitive.

3) The regulatory climate changes and HD Radio is no longer permitted.


Can or will any of these things occur?

As for #1, Many here have tried to convince us that Ibiquity is mere moments from folding up. You know,the allegations of not paying the rebates because they don't have the money. The financial inability to buy a new van. They're not being at a particular show where someone thought they should be. Let's carry this foolishness to the extreme. We'll assume that Ibiquity will cease operations on April 30th 2007. NOW WHAT HAPPENS?

Well basically nothing changes. If you have an HD-1 License you still do. If you multicast, you owe a yearly fee to whatever remains of Ibiquity, or whomever is awarded the assets. Barring that being awarded to Supercaster, PocketRadio, or Leonard Kahn, I would suggest the new owners would be able to have a receptionist and a bookkeeper in an office somewhere who could collect the $1.2 million a year for multicast fees. Heck, you can still "BUY" Lantastic and Artisoft dumped it years ago. Fact is, HD will be licensable for the forseeable future.

As for #2 - Is the cost of running an HD-2 Prohibitive? Answer - It depends. If you want 24/7 live DJ's and a few mix shows, you can easily get an airstaff of over 20. That's pretty expensive. However if you put up something network or load up the hard drive to counter program your competitor and knock him down that 2 tenths so your primary ranks a little higher - NO it's not very expensive. In fact many stations will just have existing staff do it. Net cost - ZERO. How long did most stations hang in there with their FM's? And some folks turned in the licenses. Think THAT will happen again?

As for #3 - There is some Skullduggery by the anti-HD group here. They would have you believe that the FCC has "Sort of" accepted Ibiquity's HD radio as a standard. There is the gleeful refrain that the FCC said "Well OK, we'll let the market decide." There's only one problem with that. As best I can tell,

THE FCC NEVER SAID IT.

Here's what they DID say...
http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-271699A1.pdf

Now I could be wrong, but I don't see that ANYWHERE in the document the FCC issued. I HAVE seen it here.
http://diymedia.net/archive/0407.htm#040407
But as you can see, this is a pro community radio site which isn't a big fan of commercial radio.

Back on point. Will the FCC change it's mind on the legality of HD radio? Well they COULD, but the events of March 22nd have been misrepresented by a few here. READ THE ORDER.

AM 24 hour operation AUTHORIZED.

FM Extended Mode AUTHORIZED.

Brokering Additional Streams - AUTHORIZED.

Perhaps the HD supporters have been a little too gracious in victory. I know I was pleased to see the reaction to the decision here. And the lack of gloating. But the point seems to have been lost. And the point is, HD radio won. BIG TIME.

If you didn't want HD radio then you lost. BADLY. There is no "Review Date". There is no "We'll see how it goes". There is no "Reconsideration". The final horn has sounded. The gun has been fired. The teams have left the field. The Victory parade has already happened and the city has swept up the confetti. GAME OVER.

That MIGHT be a little harsh, but that's the way it is.

So to answer the question "How much longer do you think HD Radio can go on ?"

I'd say as long as radio stations want it to go on. And THAT'S likely to be a good long time.

Clouseau
 
Clouseau himself answered the question with which he started this thread thus:
So to answer the question "How much longer do you think HD Radio can go on ?"

I'd say as long as radio stations want it to go on. And THAT'S likely to be a good long time.
Click to expand...

"[A]s long as radio stations want it to go on," eh? Given the current FCC's lackadaisical approach to interference problems -- and its efforts to bend ove backwards to accommodate the whim of the corporate interests who have ruined commercial radio -- you're probably right about that. But that only raises another question: How long will that be?

If sales remain as poor as they have been, do you think independent commercial broadcasters with no financial interest in Ibiquity will see any benefit in investing in the system? What level of market penetration would it take to make the system attractive to them? (Of course, the big corporate broadcasters who own a piece of Ibiquity will stick with it longer, as will the public stations who got CPB grants to implement this garbage (although for the latter, its only a matter of having put some of their own prestige on the line by committing to "HD").

When a few of "HD" radios have been force fed to a few car buyers whofind that the signals are undependable -- and that there's no analog backup for "HD-2" (if anybody actually listens to any of that on-the-cheap stuff) -- word will get around, and sales of home, after-market auto and (when possible, with less power-hungry chips) portable HD radios will stay very low.

And it will be the coup de grâce for any surviving AM music formats when the music on an analog receiver sounds like the "hold" music you hear on a speakerphone while you're waiting for a live person to pick up! So there will be nothing but news, talk and sports.

And speaking of sports, who wants to put up with that eight-second delay on live sports?

If I had any confidence in the the suits running corporate radio, I'd say it wouldn't be long before they'd wise up. But of course, I don't. They'll persist in this folly as long as they can. And they'll drive conventional commercial radio further into the ground doing it!
 
clouseau said:
THE FCC NEVER SAID IT.
Click to expand...

STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER DEBORAH TAYLOR TATE

Re: Digital Audio Broadcasting Systems and Their Impact on the Terrestrial Radio Broadcast Service (MM Docket No. 99-325)

"I am pleased that, in doing so, we allow the market to determine the pace of the transition and the stations to determine how to use their digital bandwidth."

http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-271699A5.doc

Sorry clouseau, but the FCC has indicated that the fate of HD Radio will be determined by the marketplace - the HD Radio Alliance and iBiquity are in a no-win, Catch-22 situation:

1) Stations and auto manufacturers are reluctant to sign on to HD/IBOC, until there is further consumer acceptance.

2) Consumers have little incentive to purchase HD radios, until there is compelling programming on the HD channels.

3) The HD channels remain underfunded streams of repetitive programming, until there is further consumer acceptance.

4) Even if HD/IBOC makes it in-dash, reception in automobiles is more problematic than table-top receivers, with AM-loop and external FM-dipole antennas - there will be little incentive to continue adding in-dash HD Radio.

HD/IBOC IS NOT A DONE-DEAL ! :D
 
PocketRadio said:
clouseau said:
THE FCC NEVER SAID IT.
Click to expand...

STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER DEBORAH TAYLOR TATE

Re: Digital Audio Broadcasting Systems and Their Impact on the Terrestrial Radio Broadcast Service (MM Docket No. 99-325)

"I am pleased that, in doing so, we allow the market to determine the pace of the transition and the stations to determine how to use their digital bandwidth."

http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-271699A5.doc

Sorry clouseau, but the FCC has indicated that the fate of HD Radio will be determined by the marketplace - the HD Radio Alliance and iBiquity are in a no-win, Catch-22 situation:

1) Stations and auto manufacturers are reluctant to sign on to HD/IBOC, until there is further consumer acceptance.

2) Consumers have little incentive to purchase HD radios, until there is compelling programming on the HD channels.

3) The HD channels remain underfunded streams of repetitive programming, until there is further consumer acceptance.

4) Even if HD/IBOC makes it in-dash, reception in automobiles is more problematic than table-top receivers, with AM-loop and external FM-dipole antennas - there will be little incentive to continue adding in-dash HD Radio.

HD/IBOC IS NOT A DONE-DEAL ! :D
Click to expand...


So I guess this means that HD has another 33 minutes and 27 seconds. Hey guys what should we do with all those left over dipoles?
 
Letting stations determine "the pace of the transition, and how to use the digital bandwidth" means just that. Stations may go at their own pace. What they didn't say was that stations get to choose WHETHER there will be a transition.

Joe, I'll give you twenty dollars to mow my lawn. Now go at your own pace, and you decide how to use the resources (gasoline, mower, rake, trimmer, etc.) Did I leave any doubt that I EXPECTED JOE TO MOW MY LAWN?

Words have meaning and context. It's important to understand that, and to (grasp) actually understand them!
 
Mike Walker said:
Letting stations determine "the pace of the transition, and how to use the digital bandwidth" means just that. Stations may go at their own pace. What they didn't say was that stations get to choose WHETHER there will be a transition.

Joe, I'll give you twenty dollars to mow my lawn. Now go at your own pace, and you decide how to use the resources (gasoline, mower, rake, trimmer, etc.) Did I leave any doubt that I EXPECTED JOE TO MOW MY LAWN?

Words have meaning and context. It's important to understand that, and to (grasp) actually understand them!
Click to expand...

Hey Bud, you forgot - "I am pleased that, in doing so, we allow the market to determine the pace of the transition..." ! :D
 
PocketRadio said:
Hey Bud, you forgot - "I am pleased that, in doing so, we allow the market to determine the pace of the transition..." ! :D
Click to expand...

Good point. Not "Will there be a transistion" but "How FAST will there be a transition".

I have never seen such myopia from the losing side before. Here's what Commissioner Tate says (Since you obviously wanted to prove to us that someone actually uttered those words.) Note it is NOT in the actual release but in the personal comments of ONE commissioner. No matter. I want everyone to see what EXACTLY it is that makes the "Anti" group think HD Radio is NOT a done deal. She Said...

"Today, the Commission adopts rules and policies to facilitate and encourage an orderly transition of the nation’s radio stations to digital audio broadcasting, which holds the promise of better reception, better sound quality, and, most importantly, more varied programming that better promotes localism and diversity.[EDIT]

Now seriously... If this is your new inspiration - GO FOR IT. Does this sound like a tepid approval to you?

YOU'RE LIVING IN A DREAM WORLD. What could be MORE of a done deal? Every station MUST convert or we'll fine them $10,000?

You do understand that even FM stereo is still not required, right? Are you still anticipating it will be disallowed? Sheesh...

And you folks talk to Pro HD Radio folks about being in denial....

Clouseau

[EDIT-truncated because source material appears to be copyprotected. User does not make clear what source the quote is derived from]
 
As the FCC commissioner stated, the marketplace will determine the pace of transition - if the transition eventually stalls, then so-be-it.
 
PocketRadio said:
As the FCC commissioner stated, the marketplace will determine the pace of transition - if the transition eventually stalls, then so-be-it.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

I think this is closer to either FM stereo or FM itself. It's set in stone and it's here to stay.

Whether it generates any interest remains to be seen. The fight over "Should we" or "Shouldn't we" is over, though.

Clouseau
 
clouseau said:
PocketRadio said:
As the FCC commissioner stated, the marketplace will determine the pace of transition - if the transition eventually stalls, then so-be-it.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

I think this is closer to either FM stereo or FM itself. It's set in stone and it's here to stay.

Whether it generates any interest remains to be seen. The fight over "Should we" or "Shouldn't we" is over, though.

Clouseau
Click to expand...



Ha ha... Clouseau, you are such a clueless wreck it's almost laughable to even comment on your reply but I can't help myself... someone find the straight jacket for Clouseau....

As you can see below the FCC allowed the market to decide the fate of AM Stereo and as you can see everyone around the country and billions of am radios are recieving the am stereo as we speak... in fact I'm listening to AM stereo RIGHT now on all my 10+ radios I have in the house not to mention all those cars today and counting back more than 30 years back that I've own cars without even the AM stereo.

Yes the FCC was correct in observing THIS thime to let the MARKET DECIDE IF HD RADIO WILL FLOURISH!



http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/...ccess.gpo.gov/cfr_2006/octqtr/47cfr73.128.htm


[Code of Federal Regulations]
[Title 47, Volume 4]
[Revised as of October 1, 2006]
From the U.S. Government Printing Office via GPO Access
[CITE: 47CFR73.128]

[Page 32-34]

TITLE 47--TELECOMMUNICATION

CHAPTER I--FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED)

PART 73_RADIO BROADCAST SERVICES--Table of Contents

Subpart A_AM Broadcast Stations

Sec. 73.128 AM stereophonic broadcasting.


Also...

http://members.cox.net/rwagoner/columns/1998/sep11.html

For years it seemed that I was about the only one who believed in a new system of AM broadcasting called "stereo." I wrote about, talked about it. Yet, due to a decision by the FCC to let the marketplace decide which of four competing standards would become the official stereo broadcast standard, AM stereo never had a chance.
Click to expand...


Familiar words from the FCC commissioner resonate from the above link and quote?


Clouseau, I think it's time for your MEDS.

Radiopilot
 
radiopilot said:
Ha ha... Clouseau, you are such a clueless wreck it's almost laughable to even comment on your reply but I can't help myself... someone find the straight jacket for Clouseau....


As you can see below the FCC allowed the market to decide the fate of AM Stereo and as you can see everyone around the country and billions of am radios are recieving the am stereo as we speak... in fact I'm listening to AM stereo RIGHT now on all my 10+ radios I have in the house not to mention all those cars today and counting back more than 30 years back that I've own cars without even the AM stereo.

Yes the FCC was correct in observing THIS thime to let the MARKET DECIDE IF HD RADIO WILL FLOURISH!
Click to expand...

I'm trying to figure out if you are actually asserting that AM stereo was a success. I'm thinking you are. If so, the myopic "Billions of radios" truely speaks volumes about your view. BTW, in my market there is exactly "ONE" HD station. And that's exactly one more station than is running AM stereo.

http://members.cox.net/rwagoner/columns/1998/sep11.html

For years it seemed that I was about the only one who believed in a new system of AM broadcasting called "stereo." I wrote about, talked about it. Yet, due to a decision by the FCC to let the marketplace decide which of four competing standards would become the official stereo broadcast standard, AM stereo never had a chance.
Click to expand...

Good point. The FCC has NOT done that here. Ibiquity's HD is The standard. No standard of "Don't do it". No second chance. Others have lost. PERIOD. It's HD or nothing.

Familiar words from the FCC commissioner resonate from the above link and quote?
Click to expand...

The words may be vaguely similar, but the meaning is truly different. This time there is NO Magnavox, No Belar, No Kahn, No Harris, No CHOICE. Ibiquity is the choice. There is no option. This is the way. Convert when you want is the schedule.

I'm assuming you can see the difference.

Clouseau, I think it's time for your MEDS.

Radiopilot
Click to expand...

Good take. When you don't have an answer to facts, sling some elementary school mud.

By the way... SCOREBOARD!

Clouseau
 
From PocketRadio

Quote from: Mike Walker on Today at 01:34:50 pm
Letting stations determine "the pace of the transition, and how to use the digital bandwidth" means just that. Stations may go at their own pace. What they didn't say was that stations get to choose WHETHER there will be a transition.

Joe, I'll give you twenty dollars to mow my lawn. Now go at your own pace, and you decide how to use the resources (gasoline, mower, rake, trimmer, etc.) Did I leave any doubt that I EXPECTED JOE TO MOW MY LAWN?

Words have meaning and context. It's important to understand that, and to (grasp) actually understand them!


Hey Bud, you forgot - "I am pleased that, in doing so, we allow the market to determine the pace of the transition..." !


_____________________
As I suspected, reading comprehension isn't your strong suit. "Go at your own pace" kind of covers that (in the lawn mowing scenario") Allowing the market to determine the pace (and the market is deciding to do it QUICKLY, THOUSANDS of stations already) does not mean letting them decide IF there will be a transition. Talk about delusional!
 
So until now, I've never weighed in on HD Radio on this or any other board. However, I've been doing a whole lot of numbers-crunching and research lately, and I'd like to share my thoughts.

I own two AM stations in Southeastern Kentucky. Both are recognized leaders in the local community, and both are the best-rated and highest-billing stations in town. Recently, arsonists torched the transmission facilities of one of the stations, for no apparent reason. As I began exploring the rebuilding process, I realized that I had the perfect opportunity to explore implementing IBOC since I was starting from scratch. I started crunching the numbers. A brand-new transmitter was about $12,000. However, the HD signal generator was almost twice that, at $23,000. Also, insted of the Omnia 3 I purchased, I'd have had to buy the 5EX, which costs about $3,000 more. Also, I'd have to pay around $10,000 just for the license from Ibiquity. It'd take another extra $6,000 or so in engineering costs to first find an engineer who is qualified to work on IBOC installations, then pay him to implement it on the station, plus buy anything else necessary to get my airchain ready. After all, there aren't any engineers anywhere near my market who are qualified to work on HD Radio equipment. At the end of the day, it adds up to about $42,000 to implement HD Radio in my situation. Multiply that by two stations, and we are at $84,000. That is a HUGE chunk of change for a small market. Obviously, I rebuilt the station without making it HD Capable.

Now lets look at the potential benefits of implementing HD Radio at my stations. First and foremost, if a tree falls in the forest but nobody is around to hear it, does it make a noise? Within fifty miles of my market, I'm willing to bet that, with the exception of the VERY few new luxury cars with them installed, there's one single HD Radio, and I own it. So basically, after shelling out $84,000, I'll get a great-sounding radio station that I can only hear in my office. I won't make a single extra penny after all that investment. And I do not put any stock in the assertion that one day everybody will have an HD Radio. First, you can't buy one anywhere near here. Secondly, my market is made of up average working people, and average working people can't afford to pay $300 for a radio. So why on earth would I even consider implementing it? It makes NO sense. At a conference last year, I posed the same question to Scott Stull of iBiquity, and he replied that I was right, implementing IBOC made no sense in my situation.

Personally, I believe that HD Radio is the cure for a problem that a good many of us do not have. I also believe that HD Radio makes no sense, and that there's no reason for it to be mandated or universally adopted, particularly by those of us who have nothing to gain.
 
thebroker said:
So until now, I've never weighed in on HD Radio on this or any other board. However, I've been doing a whole lot of numbers-crunching and research lately, and I'd like to share my thoughts.

I own two AM stations in Southeastern Kentucky. Both are recognized leaders in the local community, and both are the best-rated and highest-billing stations in town. Recently, arsonists torched the transmission facilities of one of the stations, for no apparent reason. As I began exploring the rebuilding process, I realized that I had the perfect opportunity to explore implementing IBOC since I was starting from scratch. I started crunching the numbers. A brand-new transmitter was about $12,000. However, the HD signal generator was almost twice that, at $23,000. Also, insted of the Omnia 3 I purchased, I'd have had to buy the 5EX, which costs about $3,000 more. Also, I'd have to pay around $10,000 just for the license from Ibiquity. It'd take another extra $6,000 or so in engineering costs to first find an engineer who is qualified to work on IBOC installations, then pay him to implement it on the station, plus buy anything else necessary to get my airchain ready. After all, there aren't any engineers anywhere near my market who are qualified to work on HD Radio equipment. At the end of the day, it adds up to about $42,000 to implement HD Radio in my situation. Multiply that by two stations, and we are at $84,000. That is a HUGE chunk of change for a small market. Obviously, I rebuilt the station without making it HD Capable.

Now lets look at the potential benefits of implementing HD Radio at my stations. First and foremost, if a tree falls in the forest but nobody is around to hear it, does it make a noise? Within fifty miles of my market, I'm willing to bet that, with the exception of the VERY few new luxury cars with them installed, there's one single HD Radio, and I own it. So basically, after shelling out $84,000, I'll get a great-sounding radio station that I can only hear in my office. I won't make a single extra penny after all that investment. And I do not put any stock in the assertion that one day everybody will have an HD Radio. First, you can't buy one anywhere near here. Secondly, my market is made of up average working people, and average working people can't afford to pay $300 for a radio. So why on earth would I even consider implementing it? It makes NO sense. At a conference last year, I posed the same question to Scott Stull of iBiquity, and he replied that I was right, implementing IBOC made no sense in my situation.

Personally, I believe that HD Radio is the cure for a problem that a good many of us do not have. I also believe that HD Radio makes no sense, and that there's no reason for it to be mandated or universally adopted, particularly by those of us who have nothing to gain.
Click to expand...

I see the the pro-HD group has not decided to attack your post as they now know a REAL broadcaster faced with the problems of dealing with the HD propaganda and KNOWING full well the true costs involved and reasons why you feel it's not worth the trouble of opening up the Ibiquity sales brochure!

Radiopilot
 
radiopilot said:
I see the the pro-HD group has not decided to attack your post as they now know a REAL broadcaster faced with the problems of dealing with the HD propaganda and KNOWING full well the true costs involved and reasons why you feel it's not worth the trouble of opening up the Ibiquity sales brochure!
Click to expand...

Over half the population of the US is in the top 50 markets (130 out of 230 million persons 12+)... nearly 70% is in the top 100 markets.

In the top hundred markets, nearly 100% of the viable FMs and close to that number of viable AMs are in HD or have signed contracts.

For the overall success of HD, really nothing else matters.
 
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