HOWARD STAYS AT SIRIUS!

[jackhammer]

PERIOD!

 

[barman]

Here's one reason I think you're right: If Howard were to go back to terrestrial radio, he would be re-muzzled. I'll bet he wouldn't want that, plus it's even worse now than it was before. Also, I think the future for Sirius-XM is not so dour. At the risk of violating "fair-use", I'll quote using a very short blurb from a recent more lengthy article below. Anyway, the patient people usually prevail. Think about the fact that 1/2 of new cars have satellite radio and that 1/2 of those subscribe. It's true that car sales are down some but there are cars still being sold. With the focus on their financing it's a rough spot to be sure, but it is do-able. Plus there's growth, and that's HUGE in this economic environment.

Karmazin Confident About Sirius XM Q4 Growth

December 4, 2008

http://www.fmqb.com/article.asp?id=1027412&spid=1314

Sirius XM Radio CEO Mel Karmazin predicted yesterday that the satcaster will see double-digit growth in its revenue in Q4, and also expects the company to refinance its debut next year. Speaking to the Reuters Media Summit in New York, Karmazin said the satcaster kept its expectations low for Black Friday sales targets. "We did exactly what we wanted to do for Black Friday, which is not great news because we didn't have high expectations."
"The merger has made us control our costs (and) we are dealing with going to significant profitability in the years ahead," Karmazin said, according to Reuters. "Is everything rosy? Of course not. But what's going on is not operationally problematic."

Discussing the company's ties to the struggling auto industry, Karmazin said, "We're continuing to grow because some people are still buying cars." He noted that roughly half of new cars include satellite radio, and about half of those cars' owners end up subscribing to satellite radio.

Karmazin added he is confident Sirius XM will refinance its debts, saying, "We're still optimistic we're going to get that piece done." He added that the company is not for sale, noting "we don't feel that we need to be acquired."

 

[barman]

Just to add, it’s really hard to believe that lenders can’t see lots of value and future in Sirius-XM. They have a fully functioning system of TWO complete broadcasting satellite systems for one thing. If I’m not mistaken, it’s the only such system that can reach 100% of North America in moving vehicles; it also has about 19-million subscribers – there’s certainly value there -- and that number is growing, which is a real coup in this economic environment. My thinking is that they’ll pull through this and a share price of $.18 or whatever it is right now could look astonishingly low a few years from now. Credit is tight right now, but this company has a lot of intrinsic value and real, non-speculative evidence of growth capabilities. The people involved in it can be proud after the struggle to think that they built this awesome broadcasting system.

 

[neo11]

Is it actually growing? How many of those subscriptions are "trial" subscriptions that won't be renewed, or trial subscriptions for cars that are still unsold? How much debt does the company still have? I don't think things are as rosy as you're trying to portray them.

 

[Walter Graff]

Their churn numbers are quite low actually. In the third quarter, Sirius' churn rate rose slightly to 1.7% from 1.6% in the year-ago quarter but overall that number has consistently remained in that area. The conversion rate (free trials from auto installations turn into paying subscribers) fell to 47% from 50% a year ago. So it's down a bit and a number they are working on. It is a great service with lots of potential. Don't judge it's stock price as today's investment world has little to do with reality. This year alone they will probably add an additional 3-4 million just from OEMs in new cars. And when car sales get better in the later half of the year, that number may increase dramatically. Sirius now has a relationship with every car manufacturer. And even if they do less sales in the next one or two quarters it's good for the company's sheet as they actually save money. In the third quarter Sirius' cost per gross subscriber addition was $74, an improvement of 15% over the year-ago. So add or not Sirius benefits, either in cash flow or subscriber base. Sirius will continue to make waves and grow as I see it based on what they are doing and what they offer. Stern actually has little to do with Sirius' success and is simply part of a great package of names and channels, with none really doing much more than the other. Yea Stern likes to tell you it was him that grew Sirius but the numbers don't show that and considering his weekly listenership is probably a bit more than a million people, and his fanclub site has about 220,000 subscribers (there is a loose formula for total listeners and fan club site memberships that validates total listeners), but let's not tell him he wasn't the 'factor' in Sirius' growth.

 

[neo11]

If the churn rate went up, albeit by 0.1%, and renewals are down from 50% to 47%, it's safe to say they're NOT growing.

 

[Walter Graff]

If the churn rate went up, albeit by 0.1%, and renewals are down from 50% to 47%, it's safe to say they're NOT growing.

Pretty naive view of how a business works based on a tiny sliver of a companies overall operation and revenue. Sort of like saying one week in January had seasonably high temperatures so that must mean the winter is going to be warm.