Re: Understand the legalities
> As has been discussed already in various threads, the odds
> of "real" indies reappearing anywhere but the largest
> markets is pretty much a fantasy.
>
> Smaller market stations have better profitability running
> infomercials, home shopping, or religion than by buying
> syndicated programming and trying to sell enough advertising
> to cover the costs.
>
It's a bit more complex than that, I think... maybe a lot more.
In the markets where an LPTV is the orphaned station, I think they are indeed headed to shopping, religion or someone like A1 in most cases.
In many of the largest markets, a true independent is feasible as you state. In LA, two VHF independents (as will be the case in the fall) are feasible.
But what we have today that we didn't have in the years prior to Fox, WB and UPN is the TV duopoly. With a duopoly, there's a lot less expense to run the extra station than running that station alone would cost (and programs that flopped but are still under contract to burn off as well). (We also have the ability now to run a station mostly remotely from another market if there is no local duopoly). So, looking at my market (Albany), there's likely no way the orphaned WNYA/51 would be able to be run by its own staff, but there's a JSA and a tight operating relationship with Freedom's WRGB. Today, it just might be feasible to run WNYA as an indy, on a shoestring, from WRGB, but with programming that is a big step above something like A1.
There are, however, also definite issues in some bigger markets as well. Phoenix, for example, already has two true indies... successful KTVK and less-so KAZT. (It also has a full-powered Univision, will very soon have a full-powered Telemundo, and a low-powered Telefutura.) How this jumble sorts out is anyone's guess. (Will Fox sell KUTP, allowing a third full-power Spanish station in a market that probably could support it? Will Fox try to program KUTP as a third market indy -- in a market that already has a very strong indy? Who knows?)