Hurricane reporting-can they do a better job?

[vibe]

I'm gonna pose multiple questions. Please weigh in on your area of interest.

1.Do you think that some people are lulled into a false sense of security when it comes to a decision to evacuate based on the hurricane category number? My belief is that calling the storm a category 2 when wind speeds were 110 or 1mph below that of a Cat 3 does lull people ino a false sense. Also how accurate are the wind measurements? Since the wind speeds are shown in increments of 5, it is possible that wind speeds of 112 mph are rounded off to 110. or are they always rounded up?
2. Since most of the damage is due to storm surge, why can't the forcecase storm surge be categorized? In Ike's case, you would have a cat 2/4 hurricane (maybe 5) when taking surge into account as well.
3. Do all those reporters in the direct path of the storm (Galveston Is) lull locals into a false sense of feeling safe? Usually the reporters are well off to "bullseye" and rarely take a direct hit themselves. Do their presense have any effect on mandatory evacuations?
4. If people are required in some states to use a helmet while riding a motorcycle, don't you think that protective headgear should be required at a certain level of wind speed?
5) Is there anything that can be improve on when it comes to hurricane coverage?

 

[landtuna]

I'm gonna pose multiple questions. Please weigh in on your area of interest.

1.Do you think that some people are lulled into a false sense of security when it comes to a decision to evacuate based on the hurricane category number? My belief is that calling the storm a category 2 when wind speeds were 110 or 1mph below that of a Cat 3 does lull people ino a false sense. Also how accurate are the wind measurements? Since the wind speeds are shown in increments of 5, it is possible that wind speeds of 112 mph are rounded off to 110. or are they always rounded up?

If someone living in hurricane country is going to make their evacuation decision based on the difference between a cat 2/3 or wind speed measurement of less than 20-30 MPH they are taking an awful chance. It is always better to err on side of caution and go with the official evacuation decision.

Wind speeds are hugely variable within a storm depending mostly on where they are being made. Usually an 'average' wind speed is predicted but almost always followed by a 'gusting' value. Sustained winds, unless they are very fast, don't usually do all the damage. It is the gusts that can pry roofs off buildings and send debris flying about at high speed (the major injury risk in a hurricane).

2. Since most of the damage is due to storm surge, why can't the forcecase storm surge be categorized? In Ike's case, you would have a cat 2/4 hurricane (maybe 5) when taking surge into account as well.

Storm surge depends on a number of variables such as the topography of both land and water, levees, breakwaters, seawalls and rivers nearby and which side of the storm the water happens to be on (onshore wind causes surge, offshore wind does not). There are localized predictions of storm surge but because of all the variables can't be made on a total-storm basis.

3. Do all those reporters in the direct path of the storm (Galveston Is) lull locals into a false sense of feeling safe? Usually the reporters are well off to "bullseye" and rarely take a direct hit themselves. Do their presense have any effect on mandatory evacuations?

Anyone who takes a chance to stay in the "bulls eye" of a hurricane without having a safe hideaway close by is taking a very serious risk. MSNBC this morning talked on-air to a reporter who was reporting last night from the Galveston seawall and hunkered down overnight in a local hotel with members of the city fire and police departments. She basically said none of the people she was with (emergency personnel all) felt "safe" but also felt it was their duty to remain close so they could resume their functions as soon as possible after the storm passed. She also said all of them, who were spread out on all floors of the hotel, all gathered in the basement during the night as none thought it was safe to be up in the storm.

4. If people are required in some states to use a helmet while riding a motorcycle, don't you think that protective headgear should be required at a certain level of wind speed?

Protective headgear does seem to be the norm for firefighters, helo crews and certain police. I assume it depends on department policy as to what gear they are required to wear. If you are talking about what civilians should wear my answer is they shouldn't be outside in the wind but if that can't be avoided then use common sense. More people are killed and injured by flying debris than any other cause during these kinds of storms.

5) Is there anything that can be improve on when it comes to hurricane coverage?

All in all I think the national channels did a good job. I don't receive the local TX stations here so can't comment on them. It does seem that stations went out of their way to emphasize just how serious this storm was expected to be and advise everyone to heed their local evacuation advice. Not sure what else is necessary. Some people elected not to leave and I'm sure we'll be hearing more about them today.

 

[Markxxx]

The thing people don't understand is, is that it isn't the wind but what building you're in.

Buildings are now built to withstand hurricanes, and you know what they actually do.

But older buildings were not built that way. If you're in a modern well built building in a category 4 you're gonna be safe. If you're in a shabby shack you're gonna have problems in a tropical storm.

The news wants to sensationalize everything, they all want the next big storm.

It's the same way with earthquakes, the buildings built correctly stand, the shoddy ones fall. So it's not the strength of the storm but you're shelter.

I've been through hurricanes and if you're in a decent building you can stay there. Of course you also have to take into consideration, flooding and the fact power lines will be down and stores will be closed. It's of little use to be in a building that suffered no damage if you're power is out, your sewer is backing up and you forgot to buy food and all the stores are closed.

Now that we have two metro areas Miami/West Palm Beach and Houston with over five million people each, in hurricane zones, it's only gonna get worse. Look at Fort Meyers Florida, the worst thing to hit the area wasn't a hurricane but a tropical storm that refused to move and dumped tons of rain on the area. It rained so much it flooded the barrier islands and one long island with a low area in it became TWO islands now seperated by the ocean which made it's way in and cut a new path.

If you sensationalize it, it makes it worse. For instance our local news called the train crash a horrible case of carnage, as bad as any war zone. It looked pretty bad via the pictures but I really doubt it was as bad as a "war zone."

The bottom line is if you constantly cry wolf and say how bad things are and then they don't materialize you're "crying wolf" and you only hurt people in the long run.

 

[Poledo]

1.Do you think that some people are lulled into a false sense of security when it comes to a decision to evacuate based on the hurricane category number? My belief is that calling the storm a category 2 when wind speeds were 110 or 1mph below that of a Cat 3 does lull people ino a false sense. Also how accurate are the wind measurements? Since the wind speeds are shown in increments of 5, it is possible that wind speeds of 112 mph are rounded off to 110. or are they always rounded up?

I've been through several hurricanes, including at least three Category 3 eye's or eye walls, so here's my view on them. I know a little bit about construction, so I am comfortable that my home can handle a Cat 3 without sustaining enough damage to file an insurance claim. Even though I'm comfortable with my home, bad hurricanes take out the utilities for 3 to 10 days... that sucks. Evacuation would be a comfortable way to deal with the loss of utilities, but since they've been building houses ten times faster than roads, you have to make the decision to evacuate when there's about a 10% chance of the storm hitting you. Therefore, when the "mandatory" evacuation order is finally issued, just hunker down and stay put... you can't get out. Twenty years ago, I could could evacuate when it was almost certain that we'd be hit, and I did. As for the wind speeds, those must be registered at upper levels. I have been outside in Cat 3 eyewalls and there's now way that wind was 100+ miles an hour.

2. Since most of the damage is due to storm surge, why can't the forcecase storm surge be categorized? In Ike's case, you would have a cat 2/4 hurricane (maybe 5) when taking surge into account as well.

The storm surge usually turns out to be the "whimper" of the storm. I can't count all the times that devastating surges have been forecast to hit me but never happened. My home is about 30 feet above sea level and about 1 mile from the Gulf, so theoretically I could get hit by a Category 5 surge. The chances of that happening in my lifetime are so low, I'll risk it.

5) Is there anything that can be improve on when it comes to hurricane coverage?

Yeah, build stronger radio and television facilities. I live in Florida. I've had to depend on WWL AM from New Orleans for coverage of local storms far too many times. The government likes to throw money around, maybe they should give tax credits for building a radio station that would survive a storm. Then they could give more tax incentives to that station for the hours they spent giving local reports on the storm. Maybe another way to do this would be to build PBS and NPR stations with the toughest stuff they've got and pay for it with government grants. Another thing, broadcasters in hurricane zones should all study the story of the United Radio Broadcasters of New Orleans. That was probably the greatest thing I've ever heard on a radio.