iHeartless

[Buddy Shula]

Here's an example where the DOJ required divestiture of radio stations because of potential anti-trust in advertising sales:

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/just...-stations-boston-san-francisco-and-sacramento

Good stuff. Did not know this.

 

[boombox4]

-- SNIP --

But take a look at TV viewing, live vs delayed playback. If you're watching either, especially a DVR playback, do you watch the commercials? Only if you're a producer or actor or TV geek. Most people press FF. It used to be the five or six pre-sets on the radio that offered choices but these days it's any number of alternate platform choices. OTA radio --- AM, FM whatever, has about ten years of commercial viability. The clock started ticking ten years ago. That light at the end of the tunnel isn't daylight and fresh air, it's an oncoming train.

I'm not so sure that commercials are killing radio. Because commercials are in nearly every medium out there.

I see commercials in YT videos all the time. Sometimes there are 2-3 commercials per song, and it is difficult if not impossible to avoid them. They are also on every online newspaper and news magazine platform. Impossible to avoid there. And they are on social media as well. Impossible to avoid there also. Right now the only broadcast medium that appears commercial-free is FM OTA HD-2 and HD-3 channels. But no one listens to them.

My point is that there is no escape from commercials, unless you want to pay for a subscription service, and consumers like to avoid paying for broadcast services. So how are commercials by themselves killing radio? The alternatives to OTA appear to have commercials, too.

 

[gr8oldies]

There's a generation that's almost immune to advertising, and willing to pay to avoid it.

I'm not so sure that commercials are killing radio. Because commercials are in nearly every medium out there.

I see commercials in YT videos all the time. Sometimes there are 2-3 commercials per song, and it is difficult if not impossible to avoid them. They are also on every online newspaper and news magazine platform. Impossible to avoid there. And they are on social media as well. Impossible to avoid there also. Right now the only broadcast medium that appears commercial-free is FM OTA HD-2 and HD-3 channels. But no one listens to them.

My point is that there is no escape from commercials, unless you want to pay for a subscription service, and consumers like to avoid paying for broadcast services. So how are commercials by themselves killing radio? The alternatives to OTA appear to have commercials, too.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Advertising is accepted by consumers of news, music, sports, entertainment across all platforms, but in varying degrees. My reference to advertising, particularly the eight minute - twelve unit commercial breaks was in addition to the points which I made and those made in previous posts within the thread regarding alternative entertainment sources available now and in the near future to listeners, viewers and readers; Smart Speakers in particular. At least four extensive studies regarding listener tolerance have indicated that listeners don't count minutes of commercials as much as they have an inherent feel for units in a commercial cluster. As such, a 15 second commercial weighs as much as a 30 or 60. After the third unit, the tolerance to endure another commercial diminishes and the desire to check alternative entertainment sources increases. This noted, listeners aren't particularly receptive to having multiple commercial breaks within a given time frame, say an hour. Broadcasters have chosen to play two lengthy commercial clusters per hour rather than five or six shorter commercial clusters per hour, knowing full well that many listeners will leave but are likely to return. News-sports-talk radio is an exceptiion because of the nature of the format. A significant number of active listeners especially those in cars where radio listening seems to be at its optimum, push scan or any one of the number of presets after the third or fourth commercial unit. At-work listeners, particularly those on job sites as less inclined to push scan because they're busy welding, plastering, painting or dealing with customers. Working. Still there comes a time, often triggered by a long commercial break as much as an undesirable song, where the person having control of the at-work radio changes the station. In this case the probability of returning to the previous radio station is diminished. With the integrated dashboard becoming more prevalent, in-car radio listening will face even greater challenges. Hence my ten year prognostication for the demise of OTA radio as we know it.

 

[boombox4]

There's a generation that's almost immune to advertising, and willing to pay to avoid it.

Immune to advertising? Which generation is that? I thought the younger demos respond to it, and research backs that up. Maybe my interpretation of what I've read here is wrong.

 

[TheBigA]

Hence my ten year prognostication for the demise of OTA radio as we know it.

Well your last four words are the key, and I predict radio as you know it will change faster then ten years. But it won't be a demise.

Because as I often say, most people are cheap and lazy, and OTA radio fits that perfectly.

The music industry is doing everything it can to make digital radio expensive and time consuming.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Note that I didn't say "extinct." It will be radically different. The audio version of your nearby Dollar Store.

 

[Tall Thin One]

Nobody in Buffalo has a 12 minute stop set. I have an ad agency. I buy fir my clients on all the big three Wall Street companies. I never ask for a certain spot placement and all my clients get results. If they didn’t, we would not be using radio

Note, my post did not refer to a 12 minute stop set? Re-read my post!

Buddy, you never ask for a certain spot placement because you'd never get it. Don't you think your clients results would be better if they weren't buried deep into a stop set but instead in the first, second or third position?

 

[PTBoardOp94]

Immune to advertising? Which generation is that? I thought the younger demos respond to it, and research backs that up. Maybe my interpretation of what I've read here is wrong.

There is a generation who think they are immune to advertising. In fact, I think people from all generations say this.

And there is the grouping who pays to avoid advertising. It is largely people under 40-ish who pay for Spotify, Apple Music, Netflix, YouTube Premium and the like. A 2017 report by the research firm Fluent found that less than 20% of Americans over 35 paid for one of those services, while about half of those age 25-34 did.

 

[gr8oldies]

If there ever is a future where the towers all come crashing down, the iHearts of this world will still own most of the online/mobile content. Witness what's been happening with podcasts.

Well your last four words are the key, and I predict radio as you know it will change faster then ten years. But it won't be a demise.

Because as I often say, most people are cheap and lazy, and OTA radio fits that perfectly.

The music industry is doing everything it can to make digital radio expensive and time consuming.

 

[Buddy Shula]

Note, my post did not refer to a 12 minute stop set? Re-read my post!

Buddy, you never ask for a certain spot placement because you'd never get it. Don't you think your clients results would be better if they weren't buried deep into a stop set but instead in the first, second or third position?

I think you are wrong. In fact, I know you are wrong. Placement of spots in a break does not matter, and by the way, I could place any spot any where the client dictates, but that would effect the unit rate.

Opening up a stop set helps you decrease the cost per unit. If yiu want a fixed position, you pay more.

Do you know anything about inventory management, and a yield management system of pricing? You May want to learn it.

If I tune to a station and the third spot in the break is on, I heard the third spot. Not the first or second. It does not matter where you are placing spots in a spot set less than 6 min.

And for those who think commercials hurt ratings, ask WYRK and WBLK which play the most spots per hour.

 

[flybynight]

If I tune to a station and the third spot in the break is on, I heard the third spot. Not the first or second. It does not matter where you are placing spots in a spot set less than 6 min.

First of all, the audience already listening is more likely to hear the first or second spot than the third or fourth. Secondly, the listener just tuning in will often hit another button as soon as they realize the station is playing commercials. Most listeners already in station-change mode don't typically think "Oh, here's a good commercial! I'll stop here!".

And for those who think commercials hurt ratings, ask WYRK and WBLK which play the most spots per hour.

Hmmm. What might be unique about WBLK and WYRK? Hmmmmm.... Anyone?

 

[TheBigA]

First of all, the audience already listening is more likely to hear the first or second spot than the third or fourth.

And while it may be the 4th spot in one cluster, chances are it might be the 1st spot in the next cluster. Nobody I know buys only one spot.

 

[four4rock]

I'd be willing to bet that the number of people - with tuning discretion - tuned, and/or paying attention, to WYRK at 00:58 of any given hour is materially less that at 00:50 of that same hour. Same for 00:28 vs 00:20. Y'know, the difference between providing the desired product to the listener and satisfying their revenue stream. No way that a substantial number of folks with tuning discretion remain through that (seemingly) endless drone of pitches. If they don't electronically jump ship, they aurally disengage. And, FWIW, if I am met with commercials when turn a radio on, I immediately jump ship.

 

[TheBigA]

No way that a substantial number of folks with tuning discretion remain through that (seemingly) endless drone of pitches.

Just FYI radio stations in PPM markets know exactly what listenership is minute by minute, and advertisers have access to the Nielsen numbers. They aren't guessing or offering opinions. They know the actual numbers.

 

[Buddy Shula]

First of all, the audience already listening is more likely to hear the first or second spot than the third or fourth. Secondly, the listener just tuning in will often hit another button as soon as they realize the station is playing commercials. Most listeners already in station-change mode don't typically think "Oh, here's a good commercial! I'll stop here!".



Hmmm. What might be unique about WBLK and WYRK? Hmmmmm.... Anyone?

If you are going to say the format is unique, don’t even go there. They are not the only exclusive formats in the market

 

[four4rock]

Just FYI radio stations in PPM markets know exactly what listenership is minute by minute, and advertisers have access to the Nielsen numbers. They aren't guessing or offering opinions. They know the actual numbers.

I did not know that. Thanks. I'd imagine that the loss of listeners is not a market situation... rather, it is a human behavior condition. How many (percentage?) listeners does WYRK typically lose during those protracted commercial things they have?

 

[TheBigA]

How many (percentage?) listeners does WYRK typically lose during those protracted commercial things they have?

Your question betrays a bias, assuming there's any loss at all. My point is advertisers who pay for the time know the facts and specifics.

 

[four4rock]

Your question betrays a bias, assuming there's any loss at all. My point is advertisers who pay for the time know the facts and specifics.

OK. Fair enough. Rephrasing... Does WYRK's listener volume generally increase, generally remain constant, or generally decrease during those commercial events twice per hour? And, if there's any material change, how much (percentage?)?

 

[TheBigA]

And, if there's any material change, how much (percentage?)?

The stations and advertisers pay Nielsen to get that information. If you'd like to pay, you too can get that information.

But if advertisers, who are the ones paying the money, don't have a problem with the statistics, why are you so concerned?