Inky: KYW Circles Bowl

[FredLeonard]

David, you are proving what I've said on this and the other board several times: The quality of broadcast audience research (custom and syndicated) is terrible. You are also demonstrating how in this context, the so-called "margin of error" is completely meaningless.

Again, broadcasters trust political polls. But not the kind of garbage research you describe? Too bad when radio newsies do their horse race stories (instead of reporting on real issues) they don't evidence the same kind of skepticism.

In any case, I take your point to be that everything is fine with KYW. Nobody there needs to do anything. The cow will give cash forever. The problem is a glitch at Nielsen. Broadcasting's mantra: It's always something - else!

There's a supermarket in town. Been here forever. People grew up with it. In recent years, the stores are dirty, the staff unpleasant, selection poor and looks picked over. And every few months they close some stores and blame the economy. They are at the bottom of Consumer Reports supermarket ratings each year but - no - it's the economy. Meanwhile, a new company has come to town. They are at the top of those same ratings. Great selection, good quality produce, dairy and meat. Really nice staff. Good prices. Creative presentation. They keep opening stores. Still not that many yet. The other store is often closer for most people but people keep flocking to those new stores as they open up. Somehow "the economy" doesn't seem to affect them. They don't need to make excuses. Reminds me a lot of terrestrial radio and the excuses those suits keep making.

I get it. You are an industry apologist. Hope you get paid well for it.

 

[radiophiler]

Thank you David. Interesting inside look at Nielsen. Besides that, here is my biggest take-away from David's post: You don't make changes after just one down book. That's good advice for any type of business.

I like the Acme-Wegman's supermarket analogy to radio, but I think it's a bit off.

We keep hearing from some corners that the likes of Pandora, other smartphone listening, satellite radio, etc., is causing the downfall of radio. Yet, it was reported this week that radio's reach is still 92%. Yep, that's down a few points, and if it continues to go downward, that will be bad. But I don't think it's cause for panic -- yet.

So I see Pandora, Sirius/XM and the like as Trader Joe's, Wal-Mart, Rite-Aid and Wawa. They're chipping away at the edges, but they're still not the big players in the market.

If KYW is Acme, it has no Wegman's. The FM News stations in NYC and Chicago and to a lesser extent IQ106.9 thought they'd be the Wegman's to the KYW(or other CBS all newsers)-Acme. But they flopped.

Perhaps there is a nascent Wegman's in newsradio: WTOP in Washington. But there's a problem with that comparison, too. We all know Washington, DC, home of the federal government, is, in that sense, a market like no other in this country, thus its all-news station is different, too.

So, unlike Wegman's, that started in upstate New York and spread through the Mid-Atlantic and New England, WTOP is still only in one market.

Still, there are probably some things newsradio stations in other markets can take away from WTOP. One thing: Digital/online is no longer a second-string player for WTOP. It's an equal player.

CBS has chosen, not only in Philadelphia but across the country, to bundle their radio and TV station websites under one brand: CBSPhilly, CBSNewYork, CBSLosAngeles, etc.

Talk about weird branding. When you tune to 1060, how often do you hear "CBS" during the hour? Only in the top of the hour ID and anytime they mention cbsphilly.com. The station's brand is "KYW 1060." Its associated online brand is "CBS."

To continue the supermarket analogy, it's as if Acme would have adopted its corporate parent's name for its website. "Shop at Acme, but visit us online at Albertsons.com.

People scratched their heads a few years ago when WTOP stopped using the term "newsradio" on the air. It was probably a wise move. Because now, WTOP can mean not only WTOP radio but also WTOP online.

 

[davideduardo]

David, you are proving what I've said on this and the other board several times: The quality of broadcast audience research (custom and syndicated) is terrible. You are also demonstrating how in this context, the so-called "margin of error" is completely meaningless.

No, in this case we are seeing a once-in-a-lifetime happening where the support staff for panel maintenance is totally changed and greater than anticipated panel turnover resulted from it.

In any case, I take your point to be that everything is fine with KYW. Nobody there needs to do anything. The cow will give cash forever. The problem is a glitch at Nielsen. Broadcasting's mantra: It's always something - else!

I did not make any point other than suggesting that the knee-jerk responses generated by Mr. May and his camp followers are unsupportable and uncalled for.

CBS has some absolutely brilliant ratings analysts who I am sure are looking at the subscriber tools to see panel metrics. And if they have questions or concerns, they are working with Nielsen to find out why the panel yielded atypical results. Overall, they are going to be looking at how much is seasonal, and how much is just the normal ebb and flow of all-news. Even with this low-sided April book, they are not that far off other low points historically.

If CBS finds that there sample is not the issue, they will... and only then... look at the programming. For the moment, I would imagine that they are hard at work on the analytics.

I get it. You are an industry apologist. Hope you get paid well for it.

This has nothing to do with the industry. It has to do with KYW, the analysis of the Philadelphia PPM panel and CBS's response.

This also has nothing to do with the gradual move to digital distribution and the plethora of "new voices" in the digital world. Such things happen almost imperceptibly over long periods of time, not from one month to the next... and they affect all stations, not just one of them.

Nielsen is a tool we all use if we have any interest in agency and transactional business. Sometimes the tool does not work, we whine and complain, get it fixed and move on.

 

[davideduardo]

People scratched their heads a few years ago when WTOP stopped using the term "newsradio" on the air. It was probably a wise move. Because now, WTOP can mean not only WTOP radio but also WTOP online.

I liked your whole post. It lends reason and analysis to an emotional, mostly fact-less "change the format" thread.

And in this case, you identified some issues with CBS online branding vs. on air positioning. That will bite them over the long haul. But here we are dealing with a book-to-book change so there is something other than long range consumer trends going on here.

And, as mentioned, the "winter weather" books were amazing high points for the station. Nobody can rationally think that KYW would not come down from that level. They are lower than the low points of last year, but only fractionally. It will be interesting to see if there is any change at all on the air. I suspect it will be minimal at the most.

 

[HGN2001]

Good points, all. But consider another possibility for the quick monthly drop, and it IS tied to the weather. All winter long people were literally FORCED to listen to KYW or to at least check their other sources for news and weather. And don't think for a minute that anyone who relies on online weather services and online news services doesn't get in their car and punch up 1060 when bad weather threatens.

So you've got this whole region, tired of winter, tired of snow days, tired of traffic reports on the 2's, and the moment the weather improves, they breathe this collective sigh of relief and say "Goodbye KYW. It's spring now and I don't need you." It's a cathartic way of shedding that bad memory of winter and moving on.

It's not out of the question that a factor like this could cause a sudden downturn in a station's ratings.

It happens every Christmas too, to the stations that don't do the Ho, Ho, Ho format. Their ratings plummet for a month or so too. But the owners/operators are smart enough to know of seasonal dips and try to ride it out when it happens.

 

[FredLeonard]

One small point. The Inquirer article wasn't about just one book; it was about three books. A drop of more than half over that time is substantial. Add to that that KYW's numbers have been doing downhill for several years - not so dramatically but consistently down.

KYW's Wegmans isn't another radio station. It's GPS (in phones or standalone units) with customized traffic reports, school closing text alerts... Plus, like the Ak-A-Me, KYW for years thought they had a monopoly and could take it easy. Not only is the format "stale," the whole station is stale, the presentation and the coverage. Some people may listen out of habit but mostly they are way beyond the money demos.

And people who write research summaries for radio clients know how to lie with statistics. OK, maybe 92 per cent tune-in once a week. But they tune less often and they don't listen nearly as long. But you have to get into the data tables to see that. It isn't in the press release or the management summary. Just like I run into the nearby Acme very occasionally to grab a couple of things but I don't shop there; I go to Wegmans to fill my cart - even though it's not as close. But Acme probably still counts people like me as customers.

It's interesting I didn't mention the name of either store in my earlier post but you knew exactly about whom I was talking.

More telling: It's been decades since I heard a supermarket spot on the radio. Acme used to be all over the radio (heck, I still know the jingle). All the chains were. One more category that doesn't do radio any more.

 

[davideduardo]

One small point. The Inquirer article wasn't about just one book; it was about three books. A drop of more than half over that time is substantial. Add to that that KYW's numbers have been doing downhill for several years - not so dramatically but consistently down.

KYW had an 8.4 12+ in February, and a 6.0 in March. The 8.2 is easily weather-explained, and the 6.0 is well within the historic range for the station in the PPM era. Then we had April.

And it's that nasty 4.5 in March... ONE MONTH, ONE BOOK... that is out of the normal range for the station. For a three-book average, they had around a 6.5, brought down by the 4.5 in April. That's the same three-book average as for the "Winter" (Jan Feb Mar) period of 2012. More than the share for Spring of 2009. Tied with Fall of '09. Tied with Spring of '08. (I use Winter, Spring, etc to show averages of 3 PPM books in the time span of one old diary book).

In fact, the station is in the same range has been for the entire PPM era. Comparing shares with diary data is not appropriate as there are such huge differences in methodologies that doing so is beyond absurd.

So all of this is really, truly, about ONE bad book. April

And people who write research summaries for radio clients know how to lie with statistics.

I am talking about the staff researchers who work for the different broadcast companies. They are there not to spin but to tell programming, sales and management what is going on and what the causes are. They will quite definitely deliver the bad news if there is bad news to tell.

These in-house experts have all the Nielsen subscriber tools such as PD Advantage, as well as... at most companies... the MediaMonitors M Score leading edge data and other analytical tools to dissect the numbers and sample in many many ways to determine what happened.

OK, maybe 92 per cent tune-in once a week. But they tune less often and they don't listen nearly as long. But you have to get into the data tables to see that.

Nobody is denying that. We all know that the biggest imperative is to replace AM and FM listeners with streaming and new media listeners.

But the digital era brought a different kind of bad news. It has nothing to do with listeners going to other media. It has to do with the differences between the diary and the ppm. The PPM, by measuring exactly when listening (or "hearing" for the anal-retentives in the audience) started and stopped. No rounding, no skipping of interruptions. Overall, market TSL declined about 40% the moment the PPM was introduced.

Market leading stations that had a 1.0 or 1.1 rating saw 0.6 and 0.7 ratings in PPM. So, with agencies paying the same Cost per Point, revenues declined proportionally. This was masked by the recession but the fact is that real radio listening time declined with the advent of the PPM. And that affected 48 of the top 50 markets, where about 50% of all radio billings takes place.

So, your assumption that the listeners listened more due to new media is a very simplistic, inaccurate position. Most of the decline in listening levels is due to the PPM. Add in the more gradual move of listeners to new media and you can understand why stations can't afford the program model of the 80's and 90's. Recession, new media, PPM. The perfect storm.

It isn't in the press release or the management summary. Just like I run into the nearby Acme very occasionally to grab a couple of things but I don't shop there; I go to Wegmans to fill my cart - even though it's not as close. But Acme probably still counts people like me as customers.

The real retail analogy has Mr Cunningham looking at how many of those nifty $25 new adjustable wrenches are left in stock, checking how many he ordered and saying, "we sold $500 worth of wrenches". But Richie looks at the sales receipts and says, "but you only have receipts for 10 of them, so the other 10 were shoplifted". There really was no big sale (diary) and a careful audit (PPM) proves that the prior audience levels were nearly double reality.

More telling: It's been decades since I heard a supermarket spot on the radio. Acme used to be all over the radio (heck, I still know the jingle). All the chains were. One more category that doesn't do radio any more.

There are different revenue streams today. 30 years ago, we never heard insurance companies and their Lizard and Flo spokes-creatures on the radio. Now they are among the biggest advertisers. Supermarkets have gone through huge consolidation... and the margins are still below 1%. So they use data mining, tracking, manufacturers' incentives and such, and only use things like TV for "appetite appeal" and certain price-item promotions.

You really need to pick a different analogy than supermarkets. Radio was once a scarce commodity, limited by spectrum. Now, anyone with a computer and some cash can create a station online. Supermarkets were never limited by scarcity of locations, have always been market driven, and have only very limited "new retail" derivatives that compete with them. Comparing markets with radio is like comparing the sun with Pluto.

 

[davideduardo]

Good points, all. But consider another possibility for the quick monthly drop, and it IS tied to the weather. A.

You raise some very novel and interesting possibilities. I like the fatigue and burn theory, particularly as I remember those long Northeastern winters I used to know... listening all the while to see if school was open!

It will be interesting to see if the "ship" rights itself, or whether there is some Nielsen issue or whether it's indeed time for KYW to make some structural and content changes.

 

[TheBigA]

BigA: I posted my solution on the other while this one was on "hiatus." Sorry you never found your way over there.

So you're Chicken Little telling us "The sky is falling. I felt it on my head."

Look....we know AM radio is in trouble. That's why everyone is investing in other platforms.

 

[Small Market Guy]

I've seen some complaints about ideology creeping into KYW reports. From what I remember, KYW was pretty straight shooting. Can anyone notice any difference from how they were a few years ago, which is the last time I got to listen to them?

 

[ixnay]

Yeah, imagine life without Rewind.

Speaking of which, KY' ought to put the teasers for Rewind on cbsphilly.com, not just the actual Rewind installments. Those teasers are just as interesting.

ixnay

 

[AMRocks]

So you're Chicken Little telling us "The sky is falling. I felt it on my head."

Look....we know AM radio is in trouble. That's why everyone is investing in other platforms.

I'm actually very surprised that KYW hasn't added an FM simulcast. Especially now that the numbers are thinning. We all know that "all news" can be a cash cow, despite the higher costs associated with it. Stations get away with airing many more spots than music and talk formats. And cume numbers can be very high.

Think CBS will ever add a "KYW-FM" in Philly? I know adding an FM to a "news" or "news-talk" station has happened in many markets -- both large and medium. WBBM Chicago, WSB Atlanta, KCBS San Francisco, WDBO Orlando (which eventually moved the format to the FM side), WIOD Miami (through a translator), WTOP Washington (which eventually also moved the format to FM). Why couldn't they do it with KYW? And, if so, which CBS station could get the format?

 

[FredLeonard]

Good points, all. But consider another possibility for the quick monthly drop, and it IS tied to the weather. All winter long people were literally FORCED to listen to KYW or to at least check their other sources for news and weather. And don't think for a minute that anyone who relies on online weather services and online news services doesn't get in their car and punch up 1060 when bad weather threatens.

So you've got this whole region, tired of winter, tired of snow days, tired of traffic reports on the 2's, and the moment the weather improves, they breathe this collective sigh of relief and say "Goodbye KYW. It's spring now and I don't need you." It's a cathartic way of shedding that bad memory of winter and moving on.

It's not out of the question that a factor like this could cause a sudden downturn in a station's ratings.

It happens every Christmas too, to the stations that don't do the Ho, Ho, Ho format. Their ratings plummet for a month or so too. But the owners/operators are smart enough to know of seasonal dips and try to ride it out when it happens.

You do raise some interesting possibilities.

People in the "money demo" age cohort are likely to see other sources of information - not be forced to. In all likelihood, they have found those other sources superior, or at least more convenient. Information - customized or on-demand - is much more accessible than the one-size-fits-all, you-eat-what's-set-before-you-and-you-like-it approach inherent in the broadcast model.

Yes, KYW may well have picked up some occasional, infrequent or non listeners during the weather emergencies. It was an opportunity for out-reach. Did KYW's on-air product satisfy or interest those "outside" the core audience franchise? Will they keep coming back during fair weather and when there's no crisis? And did they drive away their regular listeners, who tend be older - too old to have school age children and much interest in listening to numbers?

Moving to FM (the AM simulcast was dropped) has worked well for WTOP but hasn't really caught on elsewhere. DC is a company town dependent on a single industry, which fits WTOP's content. They also have a higher-quality product. But otherwise all news stations seem to run on inertia. Nobody else has started (or moved) a successful all news station in almost 40 years. And the format has not drawn (now) younger listeners (Merlin tried). Besides, "news the minute you want it" is now available online anytime, and you don't need to devote "22 minutes."

All news has become like elevator music - background noise to massage the brain. Some like soft strings. Some like the sound a voice over teletype. All news stations used to tell advertisers people paid more attention to them. Not sure that's true any more. And NPR has siphoned off the most desirable news junkies.

Yes, there are ups and downs from month to month in any station's numbers. But the downward trend is obvious. Last winter was cold, but the Earth is still getting warmer, ice caps are still melting, sea levels are still rising. Fluctuations and overall pattern are two different things. Just like with radio.

 

[FredLeonard]

I've seen some complaints about ideology creeping into KYW reports. From what I remember, KYW was pretty straight shooting. Can anyone notice any difference from how they were a few years ago, which is the last time I got to listen to them?

KYW is streamed online. Help yourself.

 

[TheBigA]

Nobody else has started (or moved) a successful all news station in almost 40 years. And the format has not drawn (now) younger listeners (Merlin tried). Besides, "news the minute you want it" is now available online anytime, and you don't need to devote "22 minutes."

I think that's critical. What's changed here? Several things: How the audience consumes news, how that audience is measured, and the age of the core audience. Just saying the numbers have dropped isn't the whole story. Where have they gone? Is this strictly an AM radio problem? Is it a radio problem? Is it a format problem? Or is it specific to the way KYW presents the format? Lots of questions.

Back in the 80s, a well known news consultant advised their clients to ramp up the intensity. You know the ones: "If it bleeds, it leads." In contrast, KYW is very friendly. If it's determined that the problem is KYW's presentation, the one thing they WON'T do is more in-depth reporting. If you remember Howard Beale in the movie "Network," you already know what works. They aren't doing that now at KYW. Perhaps that's what they need.

 

[radiophiler]

CBS owns two FMs in PHilly, 94.1 which is sports and 98.1 which is classic hits. Both do well in revenue. CBS is prohibited from owning another FM in Philly because it owns two TV stations (3 and 57) and three AMs (610, 1060 and 1210). It's at the FCC ownership limits.
It's unlikely that CBS would change 98.1 to a simulcast of KYW unless they calculate it will bring in more revenue than the combined revenue now being brought in by KYW and WOGL.
I wonder if CBS would be interested in trying to swap one of its AMs (1210?) with Radio One for one of its FMs. Philly is an oddity for CBS in that it owns an all-news and an all-talk (non-sports) AM station in the same market. I think they only continue to program 1210 the way they do because there's not much else they could do with an AM, other than to sell it.

 

[TheBigA]

CBS is prohibited from owning another FM in Philly because it owns two TV stations (3 and 57) and three AMs (610, 1060 and 1210). It's at the FCC ownership limits.

I thought the rule with two TVs is they're allowed up to 6 radio.

 

[Eagle]

Regarding CBS's ownership cap: Weren't they one of the contenders for 106.9 before it went to Merlin for the flaming disaster that eventually unfolded on that frequency? Were they planning to divest something if they got 106.9? Or are they actually not at their ownership cap here?

 

[davideduardo]

I'm actually very surprised that KYW hasn't added an FM simulcast. Especially now that the numbers are thinning.

Pause. Rewind.

KYW has had one "bad" book. The previous book was inline withe the range of share over the entire PPM era, and the prior two months were abnormally high.

Until we see a couple of additional books, it is too early to make any conclusion.

 

[davideduardo]

I thought the rule with two TVs is they're allowed up to 6 radio.

That is correct. So they still have one "slot" open.