Parttimer said:
Biz Listener said:
on't be surprised to see a rules or law change that makes show-by-show syndication more difficult, but that makes old-fashioned network programming more attractive.
I could be wrong, but if the Fairness Doctrine as we knew it previously comes back, it doesn't matter if the content is syndicated or from a network, the station carrying it has to give equal time to opposing views. The prediction is that faced with that administrative challenge, and haviong compliance tied to license renewal, that most will make the programming go away (and that will apply equally to liberals and conservatives... all political opinion will be gone).
Then AM will have to find the next Ed and Wendy King somewhere.
No one knows what will happen. I am confident that the Fairness Doctrine as we knew it will never, ever come back. Whatever changes are made won't be the result of the bureaucrats in the FCC writing a new regulation, which is what the Fairness Doctrine was. But depending on what party gains control of Congress, and if they have a veto proof majority in case the other party wins the White House, there could be legislation passed that might have an effect similar to the old Fairness Doctrine.
My guess (and it's purely a guess) is that any new laws about broadcast content for both radio and television will shift responsibility for network programming from the affiliates to the network. The spectre of a local broadcaster getting fined because of what ABC sent over the link will probably disappear. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see broadcast stations be given a total pass over anything that they air that they get from a formal network, placing 100% of the burden on the networks and not the local stations. However, local stations would be liable for the content of any non-network programming, including syndicated programs.
If that happens, look for the EIB to attempt to turn itself into a real network, with a full schedule of programming offered in real time, just like the television networks. And look for players like Clear Channel and Infinity to start music format networks, with one DJ in one studio broadcasting coast-to-coast. If anyone thinks voice-tracking costs jobs, wait until every Clear Channel classic rock station has a local morning show, 100% network other than PM drive time, and a PM Drive Time network show with local cut-aways for traffic reports. And they'll have another network for Oldies, and another for CHR, and another for news/talk, etc.
That's just my speculation. I'd guess that there's maybe a 50% chance of that actually happening, maybe less.
Parttimer said:
And maybe that Limbaugh, Hannity and Glen Beck are more talented and entertaining? (Although that doesn't explain Michael Savage...).
That's another factor. And it's damn near impossible to weight the influence of multiple factors. But while I could accept that Limbaugh and Beck do well because of talent, Hannity success has more to do with the fact that conservative talk show fans would rather listen to second-rate conservative talk than music. Most people with a liberal philosophy would rather listen to music than to first-rate liberal news/talk shows.