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Is it finally going to happen? And which two networks will it be?

According to Forbes magazine, two of the Big Four are contemplating ending OTA operations. They don't say which two or when, although Fox is mentioned in the article, and my guess for the second one is NBC. Aereo and Dish Network's Hopper are getting the (official) blame.

Link: Forbes
 
Very speculative and very unlikely. The Forbes story is based on a quote from Reuters from Garth Ancier. He suggests the OTA nets might become cable nets. It ignores that all four nets are huge cable players already, all four networks get huge royalty payments from cable and satellite companies for their content, and all four are deeply invested in OTA TV ownership. They're not going to give up on OTA TV while they still own major market channels. I'd suggest these magazine publishers focus more on their dying platform before predicting the end for another.
 
All four terrestrial networks have multiple cable channels operating. All four have co-owned studios producing shows for which the studios need a market.

And all four own terrestrial stations which have air time they need to fill.

I can see the networks (any or all) moving more aggressively to shut down unprofitable day parts. And maybe cut back prime time to two hours (like Fox) making local news more profitable.

But shut down completely? Not likely.

CBS should kill their morning show and provide material for stations to do their own morning shows (with an exchange like PM Magazine).
NBC should go to two hours in prime time and cut Today back to the original two hours.
All three should kill the network nightly news. The news division should feed local stations and concentrate on prime-time news magazines.
All three should kill daytime programming and instead have their production houses produce shows for syndication.
 
FredLeonard said:
All three should kill the network nightly news. The news division should feed local stations and concentrate on prime-time news magazines.

Two things about the nightly news: The stations want it. I don't know of any that pre-empt it. And those half-hour newscasts fund and justify the expense of the service part of the division. Without that, they'd have to charge stations for the newsfeeds. Stations would rather air a half hour of content and spots than pay for news feeds.
 
FredLeonard said:
All four terrestrial networks have multiple cable channels operating. All four have co-owned studios producing shows for which the studios need a market.

And all four own terrestrial stations which have air time they need to fill.

I can see the networks (any or all) moving more aggressively to shut down unprofitable day parts. And maybe cut back prime time to two hours (like Fox) making local news more profitable.

But shut down completely? Not likely.

CBS should kill their morning show and provide material for stations to do their own morning shows (with an exchange like PM Magazine).
NBC should go to two hours in prime time and cut Today back to the original two hours.
All three should kill the network nightly news. The news division should feed local stations and concentrate on prime-time news magazines.
All three should kill daytime programming and instead have their production houses produce shows for syndication.
I agree with all four.
 
The local and national aspects of broadcast television may be running headlong into one another. Stations may call the networks' bluff if they feel they can make more money as independents with syndicated programming and local news. We've already seen Nexstar lose/pull Fox affiliations rather than share retransmission consent revenue, and at least two MyNetworkTV affiliates have pushed that network's programming into late hours in favor of syndicated programming and news.

The problem is, without the major networks cord-cutting is a lot less attractive. The Big Four, with their cable investments, may see that as a good thing, and local stations may be as worried about the loss of retransmission consent revenue as anyone, but the viability of broadcast television ultimately depends on the major networks.

With cord-cutting and a la carte potentially on the horizon, the Big Four need to rethink how they see the broadcast networks. The broadcast division will never make as much money as a cable network, but it also won't be limited to just the people who choose to pay for it (or for cable in general). The broadcast networks could be the last bastion of truly mass media if broadcast's advantages are recognized and the broadcast spectrum protected. Advertisers will pay to reach a truly national audience, as the Super Bowl proves every year, and cable might not remain an acceptable substitute for long. That may make the broadcast networks a bit of a loss leader, but one not to throw away lightly.
 
FredLeonard said:
CBS should kill their morning show and provide material for stations to do their own morning shows (with an exchange like PM Magazine).

CBS has never been really successful in the morning since Captain Kangaroo.

NBC should go to two hours in prime time and cut Today back to the original two hours.

Except for sports, make prime time one hour. It wouldn't surprise me if NBC's affiliates would prefer Today to go away completely, and run their own 4-hour morning shows.

All three should kill the network nightly news. The news division should feed local stations and concentrate on prime-time news magazines.

The prestige factor is still there, just like the Sunday morning blab-fests that only political junkies watch. But if TV is going to follow radio and only target the Sacred Sales Demos, the nightly newscasts are toast. I'm an old geezer and I don't even watch them. Does anyone younger than 70?

All three should kill daytime programming and instead have their production houses produce shows for syndication.

I'll guess that within the next 5 years, that will probably happen.
 
TheBigA said:
FredLeonard said:
All three should kill the network nightly news. The news division should feed local stations and concentrate on prime-time news magazines.

Two things about the nightly news: The stations want it. I don't know of any that pre-empt it. And those half-hour newscasts fund and justify the expense of the service part of the division. Without that, they'd have to charge stations for the newsfeeds. Stations would rather air a half hour of content and spots than pay for news feeds.

The networks can get avails in local news in return for newsfeeds. Local news gets more cume and better demos; avails would be more attractive to advertisers (except maybe drug companies and fiber supplements).
There's a reason stations do two or three hours of local news and the network news is still only 30 minutes. There's also a reason network news has been pushed back to 6:30 when many stations used to run it at 7pm.
 
Morgan Wick said:
We've already seen Nexstar lose/pull Fox affiliations rather than share retransmission consent revenue, and at least two MyNetworkTV affiliates have pushed that network's programming into late hours in favor of syndicated programming and news.

If two OTA networks were to go away, I'd expect it to be MyNetwork and CW. They're both sort of ad hoc off-shoot networks, on secondary stations with secondary programming. Even today, a major network affiliation adds value to a station. Without it, the station has to spend more marketing money to establish it's image. Just running syndication and old series won't attract the kind of audience or sponsors a hot network show can bring.
 
TheBigA said:
Very speculative and very unlikely. The Forbes story is based on a quote from Reuters from Garth Ancier. He suggests the OTA nets might become cable nets. It ignores that all four nets are huge cable players already, all four networks get huge royalty payments from cable and satellite companies for their content, and all four are deeply invested in OTA TV ownership. They're not going to give up on OTA TV while they still own major market channels. I'd suggest these magazine publishers focus more on their dying platform before predicting the end for another.

To save the trouble of creating a new thread, Fox COO Chase Carey did make the threat at the National Assocation of Broadcasters conference in Las Vegas to take the network into a subscription-only model, if it and other broadcast networks are unable to stop the online service Aereo from retransmitting their affiliates/O&Os' broadcast signals without paying them.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/fox-broadcast-chase-carey-warns-434745
 
TheBigA said:
FredLeonard said:
The networks can get avails in local news in return for newsfeeds.

Have you spoken with affiliates about giving away avails? It's not something they do willingly.

They get a whole half hour back, so even with avails to the network there are more local avails.
 
FredLeonard said:
They get a whole half hour back, so even with avails to the network there are more local avails.

If you poll all the affiliates, I bet you won't get more than a handful of takers. If they're going to give up avails, it needs to be surrounded by programming. They don't want to pay for talent and content, and give up avails to boot.

Some affiliates have weak local news, and the network host is actually better known than the local staff. If they want an ad hoc network with no news commitment, they can go with Fox or CW. Most seem happy with the status quo.
 
TheBigA said:
Morgan Wick said:
We've already seen Nexstar lose/pull Fox affiliations rather than share retransmission consent revenue, and at least two MyNetworkTV affiliates have pushed that network's programming into late hours in favor of syndicated programming and news.

If two OTA networks were to go away, I'd expect it to be MyNetwork and CW. They're both sort of ad hoc off-shoot networks, on secondary stations with secondary programming. Even today, a major network affiliation adds value to a station. Without it, the station has to spend more marketing money to establish it's image.
MyNet and CW count for that purpose. Just look at how many MyNet stations still brand with the "My" moniker and logo despite MyNet now being a glorified syndication block.

I'd be shocked if Fox were to get out of OTA without pulling the plug on MyNet. The future of the CW mostly depends on whether TimeWarner finds it valuable to own a broadcast network even if the retransmission consent gravy train dries up. I don't think it can survive long in its current form where it relies solely on scripted series; they tout how well their shows do online, but that doesn't do the stations a whole lot of good, so they may ultimately decide they're better off moving all that programming to cable or Internet-only. If they still want a broadcast presence, they almost need to start over and make a hard push for sports and other live programming - as indeed all the networks should.
 
I would say IONTV and My Network TV would gab live Prime Time programming like a show that might get Cancelled and continue it for example Happy Endings and IONTV would let local Stations programming their own programming in the daytime and so on. Also USA and TNT would pick up Comdies to schedule. Also CBS could send a show to TNT like lets say Legas or NCIS Red because no room for it but doesn't want to get rid of it.
 
If you read the Forbes article, it specifies that two of the "big four" networks are supposedly considering going all-cable, and it further spells out that the "Big Four " are ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX.

Moreover, the article says FOX is definitely one of them.

That leaves the other....and given that NBC is owned by a cable company (Comcast), and that one of the big concerns when Comcast acquired NBC was that they were supposedly pre-disposed toward selling the station group, dumping affiliates and taking the network cable, this shouldn't be too hard to figure out.
 
michael hagerty said:
That leaves the other....and given that NBC is owned by a cable company (Comcast), and that one of the big concerns when Comcast acquired NBC was that they were supposedly pre-disposed toward selling the station group, dumping affiliates and taking the network cable, this shouldn't be too hard to figure out.

I didn't see any quotes that give the article any credibility. In fact, it reads more like a blog post than an actual article.

Comcast testified in front of the FCC when it bought NBC, and it specifically addressed the concern you brought up, and the FCC seemed satisfied with their answer.
 
I don't think the NFL would let either Fox or NBC keep their packages if they abandoned OTA, and Major League Baseball might have something to say about Fox pulling that off as well.
 
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