Is live & local radio dead?

[davideduardo]

Radio doesn't program for 24/7 listeners. It programs to people who listen in short bursts. That's how people use radio.

That is not true in most cases.

Yes, some listeners only "tune in" for their brief commute if they live close to work. But most tune in "for short bursts" over and over and over and over during the day. That is because they have to go to the bathroom, to lunch, to get coffee, to a phone call, to the loading dock, to pick up the kids, to go to the market, to drop off that Amazon return at Kohl's and so many other things.

The diary did not pick up that flow because nobody was going to write down all the things they did in the day that interrupted continuous listening. So we got lots of diaries with "9AM to 5PM" listening.... 8 whole hours. What it really turned out to be was 3 hours or less, in 15 different bits and pieces.

I was at a PPM seminar during the first year of the system. Arbitron did slides of one station that had over 20 different 5 minute to 20 minute bits in a single day with one listener. They used that as an example of how we had to look at TSL.

After the presentation, the Arbitron VP who did that "show" came over to me and said, "the example we used was your KBRG in San Francisco. You obviously figured out how to keep them coming back."

The listeners did not go elsewhere. They just could not listen for a while; can you listen while you are on a conference call,?

They no longer "turn it on and rip the knob off." Unless they;re retired.

Actually, at work they do. They just have other things that interrupt continuous listening. Just as I interrupted this post to go brew some Alto Grande, folks can't listen non-stop... and never could. But that is the defect of the diary system, not of PPM and not of radio

Lots of folks like curated and hosted playlists and that is what the PPM reflects.

 

[Kent]

While baby boomers and Generation Xers used radio as their primary source for hearing music, the same reality is not shared by either Generation Z or by millenials.

When we were growing up, albums and cassettes ran around $10 apiece. Once CD’s arrived, they were closer to $15, or even $20, each. The minimum wage was $3.35/hour, and, for those of us with jobs, we were lucky if we made more than that. When we wanted to hear a new song, we couldn’t afford a full day's labor to buy the album unless we REALLY liked it. Most of us could afford, at most, one album a month. So, we waited around to hear it on the radio. Kids today aren’t going to do that when they can hear it on-demand for free on YouTube or as part of a subscription service they’re already paying. When I have a specific song on my mind, I don’t dial up the radio to wait for it anymore either.

Radio could solve this problem in the short term by programming to those people who will listen but as the generations pass away, it will continue to lose listeners. Furthermore, advertisers are putting more money into the Internet because 1) that's where their target audience is; and 2) they can more easily reach their target audiences because Internet listening is so spread out between stations, and radio cannot compete on those terms.

As you point out, the only way radio is going to compete long-term for that audience is for easy and free to beat out subscriptions and maintaining playlists. We've also talked about this before, but, at some point, every technology eventually dies. AM radio is centenarian technology, and FM has been around about 80 years. You can only squeeze so much out of an old system.

 

[TheBigA]

That is not true in most cases.

It depends on the format. Talk, Sports, Classical, NPR, and AAA all have high TSL. Most everything else does not.

You specialize in Hispanic formats, and they too have higher TSL than other music formats.

Actually, at work they do.

When was the last time you worked in an office? I watched the old TV show The Office the other day, and it seemed very quaint to me.

At work listening has been eclipsed by in car listening according to the latest Edison research.

 

[Deus Ex Machiato]

The big companies are all building the next phase. It's right there in front of you.

And yet when I asked you what that "next big thing" is, your answer was nothing more than "I'll tell you when it happens."


Not exactly confidence inspiring...

 

[TheBigA]

And yet when I asked you what that "next big thing" is, your answer was nothing more than "I'll tell you when it happens."

Not exactly confidence inspiring...

It sounds like you want something that will be like what radio was 40 years ago. If that's what you want, it's not gonna happen.

Whatever the "next big thing" is will have to settle for smaller audiences, because people are not into any one thing. That goes for any line of business today. There is no consensus. We have to budget for that. So radio companies are building streaming and podcasting platforms. That's not the future, that's the present. The future isn't here yet. But look, you've made your mind up. There's nothing anyone can say that will change it.

 

[davideduardo]

Consumers need to be concerned about the future of free media. What happens when the only places to get what you want require a subscription?

In one backwards, third world nation where I am working you won't need no f'ing subscription. In fact, we will give you a device that is a radio, a game system, a calendar, a phone, your bank and your identification!

The equivalent of a bank gives everyone who opens an account a dedicated smartphone that works with our system. The "phone" can receive tips in a restaurant, pay for fruits in the open air market, collect pay for gig work or a job, pay rent to the landlord... and anything else that required cash.

The device is free to everyone who is "of age" (16 there) and has no cost.

And the phone will come with about 20 radio stations in three languages with every type of popular music along with ads for the merchants that use us for all their transactions of any kind, even accounts payable. Merchants can earn ad credits by doing more business within the system. They can also buy more ad credits if you want.

No subscription, just use the service for all your money transactions. Loose it? It won't work unless you hold it. Turn a lost one in? Get a credit. Want to use it with the family? You can buy a device to plug into that charges it and has a speaker.

A similar but more limited system in one particular African nation was the inspiration. It was analyzed, and watched "on the street" where we could buy jolof and dodo from a street vendor with the system (And then pick up a Star Lager from another street vendor!)

 

[Deus Ex Machiato]

It sounds like you want something that will be like what radio was 40 years ago. If that's what you want, it's not gonna happen.

Not at all. I said - repeatedly - that I don't expect it to be like it was "in the good old days," but you aren't listening.

As I said earlier, the question in our minds (in my current industry) is "how does this scale?" Not "what is profitable NOW" or "we can't know the future so don't even try" but rather "what does this thing look like a year from now? Or five years from now? Or ten years from now?"

Saying "the future isn't here yet, but we'll figure out when it arrives" isn't the answer, either.

 

[TheBigA]

Saying "the future isn't here yet, but we'll figure out when it arrives" isn't the answer, either.

That's not what I'm saying, but you aren't listening,

 

[davideduardo]

It depends on the format. Talk, Sports, Classical, NPR, and AAA all have high TSL. Most everything else does not.

I am talking about TSL that is more realistic in the PPM because interruptions are measured. Every format has the same phenomenon of many pauses in listening because people have to do other things that don't included listening to the radio... whether it is going to pee or taking a phone call.

You specialize in Hispanic formats, and they too have higher TSL than other music formats.

That does not matter. Some formats have long listening spans, others are shorter. The point is that those little "kibbles and bits" of short listening are what has been happening for the last 75 years. It's just that the system before the PPM did not measure it.

When was the last time you worked in an office? I watched the old TV show The Office the other day, and it seemed very quaint to me.

I worked in an office last week. When I travel, I work every day in one... unless out on a research project. If I were the guy who fastens the seat belt anchors in an assembly line, I'd be in my "office " 8 hours a day except for breaks. If I were a salesman, my car is probably my office.

At work listening has been eclipsed by in car listening according to the latest Edison research.

At work listening was never the majority of listening to begin with. In most markets, it was in vehicle, followed by home and work listening at nearly identical levels in the diary.

 

[Deus Ex Machiato]

That's not what I'm saying, but you aren't listening,

"Whatever the "next big thing" is will have to settle for smaller audiences"

This seems to be you saying - in effect - "we need to shrink the business down to a point where we can still squeeze a bit of revenue out of the remnants of what it used to be. Sure, we'll have to lay off more of our staff, but so long as the quarterly numbers are still in the positive, nothing is wrong here!!!"

A long time ago, I had a long conversation with a restaurant manager that explained that if we lost - as we were on track to - 3-5% of our business every year, we were going to be out of business in short order. He wasn't wrong. What you seem to be saying is that the way to "save radio" is to keep cutting back. To keep making it cheaper. To do everything you can to spend the least amount of money possible on the product, and hope that the "next big thing" will arrive to save your ass.

Again, not exactly confidence inspiring.

 

[TheBigA]

Again, not exactly confidence inspiring.

Oh well. Doesn't matter one bit to you since you're out of it.

The way Spotify handles smaller per station audiences is having unlimited stations. That model is easy to copy.

 

[Deus Ex Machiato]

Oh well. Doesn't matter one bit to you since you're out of it.

Whoosh. Look, I get that you're still on "the inside" and are invested in insisting that there's nothing wrong and that better days are ahead, but you are of course welcome to hang onto that notion. Yeah, I'm on "the outside." I see things from a different perspective. At this point we're talking past each other.

 

[TheBigA]

I get that you're still on "the inside" and are invested in insisting that there's nothing wrong and that better days are ahead,

That's not me. If you want the industry view, call the NAB. They're everybody's piñata.

 

[SomeRadioGuy]

Whoosh. Look, I get that you're still on "the inside" and are invested in insisting that there's nothing wrong and that better days are ahead, but you are of course welcome to hang onto that notion. Yeah, I'm on "the outside." I see things from a different perspective. At this point we're talking past each other.

Theres lots of things wrong with radio.. i dont deny that. Would we eventually be here of certain parts of the industry hadnt happened or took longer? Absolutely.

I'm lucky for the last decade plus ive worked at GOOD, no GREAT local stations... WDDH/WKBI, KLMI, KSKO and KLMI(again)/KRQU/KHAT/KIMX... I'm lucky in many multiples with my current position.

I half joke but am half serious, if someone wants to see what GOOD local radio is while utilizing (not abusing) technology, come pay us a visit for a few days and you'll find an owner in the office 5 days a weeks, an owner wo does his own engineering and works harder than his employees while giving his employees room to just do their job. And we'd be glad to show how we utilize technology to do a better job.

I know some stations who are all satellite but that doesnt make them bad. why? They have full time news/sports people and utilize the staff where the local content is more effective.

 

[Alan Smithee]

"Radio doesn't program for 24/7 listeners. It programs to people who listen in short bursts. That's how people use radio."

Wouldn't stations WANT people to listen 24/7? I would, to the right station. I still have fond memories of when I'd listen to a certain station all day and they'd never get old, of course now I'm a lot more critical of song repetition.

 

[TheBigA]

Wouldn't stations WANT people to listen 24/7?

Sure, but it's impractical, except for shut-ins. Most people today have other activities.

What we find are the people who listen the longest are also the oldest.

 

[Deus Ex Machiato]

"Radio doesn't program for 24/7 listeners. It programs to people who listen in short bursts. That's how people use radio."

Wouldn't stations WANT people to listen 24/7? I would, to the right station. I still have fond memories of when I'd listen to a certain station all day and they'd never get old, of course now I'm a lot more critical of song repetition.

In an ideal world, you'd love to have people (as the old imaging slogan went) "tune it in and rip the knob off," but that was never something that was actually expected behavior.

But like any other business, you DID want to build a customer base that prefers your station over others. You want them to listen in the morning drive or on the way home from work. You want the people who are able to listen to the radio at work to listen to your station. If you're a CHR, you want your night show to appeal to younger people so that they are locked in to loving your brand. The kid who grew up drinking Coke is less likely to switch to Pepsi. This is basic branding.

Of course, listeners have many more choices nowadays. Streaming services for music. Podcasts for talk, etc., etc. That thing in the middle of a car's dash isn't "the radio" to people under the age of 35, let alone under 30. It's the "infotainment." The menu choices on mine are FM, AM, Sirius/XM, Spotify, and I'm not an Apple guy so I use Android Auto rather than CarPlay.

Now, I'm an "old guy" (who has been accused of insisting things must go back to what they were like 40 yeaars ago) but I can't remember the last time I tuned into AM...maybe 15 years? I did listen to my buddy's "Old School" station when he was still PD, but that was a few years (and one car ago) and the last time I tuned into FM was when I was having trouble with Android Auto and then stopped a few minutes later when I realized it didn't like my VPN.

Okay, now put yourself in the shoes of someone half my age who is smack dab in the middle of the 25-34 demo and think about why she would not only check out FM radio (let alone AM) but prefer it to a streaming service. Is broadcast radio successfully making the case that she should? I'm...skeptical to put it mildly. I'm willing to bet that if I went around my office tomorrow (again, I work with GenZ and younger Millennials) and asked them "what's your favorite radio station?" they'd probably stare at me like "should I call security?" If I asked them "how do you get your music?" the response would be different.

 

[K108 Sacramento]

"Whatever the "next big thing" is will have to settle for smaller audiences"

This seems to be you saying - in effect - "we need to shrink the business down to a point where we can still squeeze a bit of revenue out of the remnants of what it used to be. Sure, we'll have to lay off more of our staff, but so long as the quarterly numbers are still in the positive, nothing is wrong here!!!"

A long time ago, I had a long conversation with a restaurant manager that explained that if we lost - as we were on track to - 3-5% of our business every year, we were going to be out of business in short order. He wasn't wrong. What you seem to be saying is that the way to "save radio" is to keep cutting back. To keep making it cheaper. To do everything you can to spend the least amount of money possible on the product, and hope that the "next big thing" will arrive to save your ass.

Again, not exactly confidence inspiring.

What ever happened to the idea that you have to spend money to make money in all your business endeavors? The profits from radio stations today are all going to service a mountain of debt until the next bankruptcy, and to pay overpriced executives that are sucking up all the leftover profits for themselves. I forsee a big sell off of many major market stations for a big loss over former high values paid to acquire them. Wasn't there a time when a major LA station was sold for 500 million? Whats that station worth today? Radios ROI is only going to improve when the operators investment creates interesting content for the public. The trouble is all the other competing sources for that attention available to us all. Fragmentation is a very painful thing for the radio business and I believe for the television business too. Its just a matter of time. The Radio hosts David mentioned are very entertaining indeed but they can never handle all the load to service all the debt still outstanding regardless of how many bankruptcies the big five radio companies have to deal with. Watch out for the cost of subscriptions just to use the features in your new cars that may truly cost radio its place in the dashboard. Yikes! Future Shock in the 70s is coming true very fast for us all. A kill switch in all new cars are you paying attention?

 

[Deus Ex Machiato]

The trouble is all the other competing sources for that attention available to us all. Fragmentation is a very painful thing for the radio business and I believe for the television business too. Its just a matter of time.

Somewhere in my box of things I kept when I was walked out of my last radio job is a one sheet written by a co-worker that we'd sometimes present to clients looking for us to make an ad (or build a campaign) for their business. At the heart of it was a simple question. "What's your USP?" Unique Selling Point. What does your business do that either nobody else can do, or you can do better than anyone else? This is basic stuff. If you had a new product or business, or had a new way to put a twist on something in a crowded market, that was what we focused on.

When it comes to broadcast radio, "live and local" appears to be not nearly enough in today's crowded media marketplace. Same with "well, it's free." Yes, Ryan Seacrest or Bobby Bones or Charlemagne the God can get big name celebrities on their shows, but is that enough? Not to save "live and local" radio. Is it enough to overcome the boat anchor of 10 spot unskippable ad breaks multiple times an hour? Hmm...

What's left? What's the one thing that broadcast radio can do that will appeal to people who have already switched to Spotify or YouTube Music? What can broadcast radio do to stand out in the crowded marketplace that nobody else can do?

 

[TheBigA]

What ever happened to the idea that you have to spend money to make money in all your business endeavors? The profits from radio stations today are all going to service a mountain of debt until the next bankruptcy, and to pay overpriced executives that are sucking up all the leftover profits for themselves.

That's not really true. The reason these companies go bankrupt is there isn't enough money being made to service the debt. After 20 years of annual layoffs, the $20 billion debt at iHeart hadn't changed. That's why they went bankrupt. They can't fire enough staff to become profitable.

The real issue is that spending money on live & local hosts won't cause people to throw away their phone and stop using Spotify. They like making their own playlists, and don't like commercials. The radio audience is what it is. What you don't see in Nielsen is that total number of people using broadcast radio is getting smaller, and when they listen, they do it for shorter periods of time. There are lots of live & local hosts in Sacramento, and it doesn't mean those stations are #1. The lack of live & local hasn't hurt The Eagle.

The question you should ask is why do you need live & local people to introduce music that's not live & local. If the music is the main content, and it's not local, how is it improved by having someone from Sacramento telling you who the performer is?

That's why companies are redirecting whatever money and local staffing they have towards content that actually is local, such as local news & sports.

Radios ROI is only going to improve when the operators investment creates interesting content for the public.

Really? The problem there is that not everyone agrees with what makes something "interesting."