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Is Philly really the number 5 market?

A

Al Johnson

Guest
I saw this a few days ago on one of the radio blogs and have been waiting for somebody to mention it here. Since nobody else has, here is the Reader's Digest version:

Arbitron almost always follow the government's Metropolitan Statistical Areas in defining radio markets.

Two notable exceptions are Philadelphia and San Francisco-Oakland.

The feds rank Philly as the number five MSA. SFO they rank number 12.

Arbitron ranks Philly number seven and San Franciso-Oakland number four.

There difference is the feds include Wilmington in the Philadelphia Metro; Arbitron counts it as market 75. But 80% of the audience in the Wilmington radio market is listening to out of market stations (mostly Philly stations). The blog says these listeners that don't get counted in the Philly ratings and that costs the Philly stations sales revenue.

San Francisco gets a sweet deal. Arbitron adds four other MSAs into the San Francisco-Oakland market. Two of these added metro areas get double-counted both as part of San Francisco and as separate markets (number 35 San Jose and number 119 Santa Rosa). SFO radio gets to charge advertisers for those additional listers in other metro areas.

Should the Wilmington market be annexed to the Philadelphia market?
 
Al Johnson said:
There difference is the feds include Wilmington in the Philadelphia Metro; Arbitron counts it as market 75. But 80% of the audience in the Wilmington radio market is listening to out of market stations (mostly Philly stations). The blog says these listeners that don't get counted in the Philly ratings and that costs the Philly stations sales revenue.

Should the Wilmington market be annexed to the Philadelphia market?

Short answer, no. If you ax the Wilmington market, then you must also kill the Trenton market.

And 80% of the Wilmington market listens to out of market stations because Wilmington only has two big FM signals (WJBR & WSTW), a few rimshotters (WJKS, WXCY, WRDX, etc.), and a handful of local AM stations. Meanwhile, Philadelphia puts 15 commercial FM signals over downtown Wilmington.

The Philadelphia market (proper) consists of the 8 county metro area: Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Philadelphia, Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester Counties; it does not include New Castle County, DE. The Philadelphia TSA includes a much larger area, all the way down to central Delaware, over to the Jersey Shore and up into the Lehigh Valley.
 
yeah but your sure cant listen to the philly fm stations in downtown allentown, bethelem or easton even on a car radio because hill ridges just to the south block the signals and the the close proximity of the lehigh valley stations and their harmonics. wilmington and trenton are a different story because of their close proximity to philly
 
Trenton is not part of the Philadelphia MSA. Wilmington is.

Wilmington is included in the Philadelphia MSA because of ecomomic and social ties; where people work, where people shop, how goods are distributed, and media usage. Arbitron follows the OMB except when broadcasters pressure them not to. Arbitron markets (they call them "MSAs" too) are for the use of advertisers. It's not about reception. The government data makes it clear that Wilmington is a suburb of Philadelphia, not a distrinct metro area. By the logic used here, maybe Chester County should be a separate market, too.

Wilmington has already voted on this. Eight out of ten of them are listening to Philly, and one of two Wilmington stations with decent numbers has become part of a Philly cluster and is trying to "move in" (like The Hawk).

Stations set rates and agencies make buys based on MSA numbers (not TSA). Philly stations get short-changed on ad dollars because advertisers get Wilmington listeners for free. Agencies know this, which is why Wilmington bills low as a market. Letting Wilmington pretend to be its own market costs Philly stations money. At the very least, Wilmington should be double counted like San Jose and Santa Rosa.
 
eatspaste said:
Short answer, no. If you ax the Wilmington market, then you must also kill the Trenton market.

You don't have to eliminate the market. You could turn Wilmington and Trenton into embedded markets.

Nassau-Suffolk is both its own market (No. 18), and included in the ratings for the New York market (No. 1). To go one further, Hamptons-Riverhead (Market No. 260) is, in addition to being its own rated market, embedded in Nassau-Suffolk, which is embedded in New York. No reason the same thing can't be done with Wilmington and Trenton.
 
Another market picks up territory; jumps eight places.

Charlotte goes up the dial
Region's radio market size expected to move up to No. 25 this fall


Charlotte's radio universe will likely occupy new boundaries in the fall, a bit of gerrymandering that is expected to propel the region nationally from No. 33 in market size to the mid-20s.

By annexing six more counties into the designated market area measured by Arbitron, Charlotte will likely become radio market No. 25, behind Pittsburgh...
(read more - Mark Washburn-Charlotte Observer)

The article in the Charlotte Observer goes on to say, "To add counties to the metro market, Arbitron requires that at least 55 percent of the radio listening in those counties be tuned to metro stations. And at least 15 percent of those who commute to work must be headed to one of the counties in the current radio market."

Philadelphia far exceeds that in relation to Wilmington.
 
It Al gets his way Delaware will have another claim to fame. The only state without a commercial TV station. Then the only state without a radio market. We used to also be the only state without commerical air service, but now Delta does fly two flights each day from the New Castle Airport yet has the 11th busiest train station in the nation. Oh well, so much for trivia time.

I agree with the one poster who said that the Wilmington and Trenton markets could be used in the Philly numbers and their own numbers as he sighted some suburban NYC counties doing this.

One poster claimed that if Wilmington was included in Philly's numbers the Philly radio stations would pay more attention to Wilmington than they do now. I disagree. The TV market is already set up that way. There isn't a Wilmington TV market and rarely does Philly TV pay any attention to Delaware, as our population represents only 1/2 million potential viewers whereas the Philly market has what about 4 million + . The good folks in Philly don't care about what's going on in Wilmington anymore than we care about what's going on in Philly other than sports and maybe traffic. Why would Philly advertisers care about Wilmington listeners or viewers, we're not going to drive to Philly to buy their products. If they have a branch in Wilmington that's a different story and those stores do advertise in Wilmington now on radio and cable and on Philly radio/TV stations now so they already reach us. So no I don't see where Al's proposal would benefit Wilmington at all.
 
MikefromDelaware said:
It Al gets his way Delaware will have another claim to fame. The only state without a commercial TV station. Then the only state without a radio market. We used to also be the only state without commerical air service, but now Delta does fly two flights each day from the New Castle Airport yet has the 11th busiest train station in the nation. Oh well, so much for trivia time.

I agree with the one poster who said that the Wilmington and Trenton markets could be used in the Philly numbers and their own numbers as he sighted some suburban NYC counties doing this.

One poster claimed that if Wilmington was included in Philly's numbers the Philly radio stations would pay more attention to Wilmington than they do now. I disagree. The TV market is already set up that way. There isn't a Wilmington TV market and rarely does Philly TV pay any attention to Delaware, as our population represents only 1/2 million potential viewers whereas the Philly market has what about 4 million + . The good folks in Philly don't care about what's going on in Wilmington anymore than we care about what's going on in Philly other than sports and maybe traffic. Why would Philly advertisers care about Wilmington listeners or viewers, we're not going to drive to Philly to buy their products. If they have a branch in Wilmington that's a different story and those stores do advertise in Wilmington now on radio and cable and on Philly radio/TV stations now so they already reach us. So no I don't see where Al's proposal would benefit Wilmington at all.

So? It would benefit Philadelphia.

Explain then why most people in the "Wilmington market" are not listening to Wilmington radio stations? (Just like most people in Chester County don't listen to West Chester radio.)

Most ads on Philly radio are nationally or regionally targeted. Drive through PA, South Jersey or DE and you pass the same stores, banks, fast-food restaurants and Wawas. Local advertisers who buy time on the big Philly stations already face a large amount of waste. A car dealer in Mt Holly, NJ is not going to get a lot of people coming over from PA or DE. That's why you don't hear many strictly local ads on Philly radio (except in the really cheap dead times when the painless dentist pops up on KYW). The federal government puts Wilmington in the Philadelphia Metropolitan Statistical Area because of the way people commute and shop and because of how products are sold and distributed. That's why Arbitron almost always follows the government's MSA definitions. The question is: Why should Wilmington be an exception?

I fail to see why some people keep brining in Trenton. It has never been part of the Philadelphia MSA as defined by the OMB.

What is this "thing" about crossing a state line? OK, they make you pay to get into Maryland and Jersey but PA is free. Delaware doesn't act like state lines should be a problem when they run ads (in Philly media) for tax-free shopping.

Two commercial flights: Big deal! People in much of the Philadelphia area in PA have to drive further to get to the airport than people in Wilmington do. And Delaware lacks a commercial TV station because WDEL sold out. Why? Maybe because most everybody was watching Philly TV even then. Or maybe also because channel 12 was already allocated to Philly and the rich newspaper and coal-mine owning Lancaster family which also owned (and still owns) WDEL wanted to move their flagship Lancaster station to channel 8, increase power and eliminate interference from WDEL-TV (then on channel 7, which was a Wilmington allocation).

Maybe Delaware's claim to fame should be it's the only state that's really a suburb. Even the federal government says so.
 
Explain then why most people in the "Wilmington market" are not listening to Wilmington radio stations?

It might be because there are only 2 FM stations here. As it is both of those FM stations WJBR and WSTW battle it out for the #1 and 2 spot on the 12+ numbers so they have the largest piece of the audience for an individual station. Yes, adding up all those Philly stations sure they pull in more listeners as a group. If Wilmington had more stations then those Philly stations would probably lose ratings. WJBR and WSTW only appeal to a part of the Wilmington audience. Unfortunately for Wilmington, WAMS and I believe it was WTUX both had FM allocations that they turned back in to the FCC back in the 1950's-60's (when FM was seen as a losing proposition) which deprived the area of having 4 FM stations. There is a parallel discussion of this topic on the Delaware board and one poster there said that WJBR and WSTW could be the big fish in the smaller Wilmington pond or be #25 , etc in the large Philly pond. So those stations probably wouldn't benefit from that market being designated a part of Philly. Actually what should happen is Dover should be added to the Wilmington market as those FM's do compete in the Wilmington numbers. That would expand the Wilmington market to possibly #74.

Your attitude is Wilmington should lose its own market standing to help out Philly? Why, we don't owe Philly anything. Most Delawareans do not consider themselves to be a suburb of Philly we are our own seperate place. There is something not correct in what you are claiming though. I've seen government maps where they outline the Wilmington Metro Area to be New Castle, Cecil, and Salem Counties. That has nothing to do with Arbitron. That may be why Arbitron has a Wilmington market though, because Wilmington does have a metro area of its own. No Arbitron should leave the Wilmington market alone and not merge it with Philly.
 
I posted this on the Delaware board and thought I should add it to the fray here. But first to Al Johnson... the thing you are suggesting is the very reason why "no one" (a gross overstatement) listens to Chester County radio. The agency's don't buy below the top 3 and Chesco doesn't make up a statistacally large enough portion of the metro for a station to show. Even if WCOJ had a 25-share of the Chester County listeners, they wouldn't show in the Philly book.

No, what I said on the DE board was...

"Having read the thread I gather the one bennie to the Wilmington area was that the Philly stations would talk more about them. Perhaps we should ask the people of Niagara Falls, Schenectady and Troy, NY how much attention they get as part of a 'merged' market before we say that that would ever happen. As far as counting toward the Philly book, both the Lancaster and Reading surveys add their data to the Philly book. Wilmington could (or might, since I don't know) do the same and still be market 75 on their own."
 
aindik said:
eatspaste said:
Short answer, no. If you ax the Wilmington market, then you must also kill the Trenton market.

You don't have to eliminate the market. You could turn Wilmington and Trenton into embedded markets.

Or simply double-count them, as San Jose and Santa Rosa are in relation to San Francisco. (Or are we talking about the same thing?)
 
Wilmington radio does not want to be double-counted, embedded or merged. The real reason: PPMs.
If Wilmington continues as market 75 completely separate from Philly Arbitron continues to use diaries in Wilmington. Arbitron has said it plans to roll-out PPMs to the top 50 markets, which leaves out Wilmington. If Wilmington becomes in any way part of the Philadelphia market, Wilmington gets Personal People Meters immediately.
We saw big shifts in station numbers when PPMs came to Philly. Imagine what would happen in Wilmington. One regular poster has said on the news/talk board that listeners to Wilmington's AM talk stations may not be sure which one they are listening to. And in all likelihood hometown loyalty and other factors may cause Wilmington folks to over state how much they listen to their local stations (and certainly to under-report turning about to Philly stations). Maybe Wilmington stations aren't even getting the 20 per cent audience share Arbitron gives them now.
Wilmington stations are perfectly happy with standard measurement and diaries and don't want real numbers from PPMs to get out.
 
bierkenstock said:
Wilmington radio does not want to be double-counted, embedded or merged. The real reason: PPMs.
If Wilmington continues as market 75 completely separate from Philly Arbitron continues to use diaries in Wilmington. Arbitron has said it plans to roll-out PPMs to the top 50 markets, which leaves out Wilmington. If Wilmington becomes in any way part of the Philadelphia market, Wilmington gets Personal People Meters immediately.
We saw big shifts in station numbers when PPMs came to Philly. Imagine what would happen in Wilmington. One regular poster has said on the news/talk board that listeners to Wilmington's AM talk stations may not be sure which one they are listening to. And in all likelihood hometown loyalty and other factors may cause Wilmington folks to over state how much they listen to their local stations (and certainly to under-report turning about to Philly stations). Maybe Wilmington stations aren't even getting the 20 per cent audience share Arbitron gives them now.
Wilmington stations are perfectly happy with standard measurement and diaries and don't want real numbers from PPMs to get out.

That's a fairly recent development. It doesn't explain why Wilmington hasn't been embedded all this time, pre-PPM, as Philly FMs dominate the ratings there.
 
papaul1967 said:
yeah but your sure cant listen to the philly fm stations in downtown allentown, bethelem or easton even on a car radio because hill ridges just to the south block the signals and the the close proximity of the lehigh valley stations and their harmonics. wilmington and trenton are a different story because of their close proximity to philly

just to clear it up...you can definitely pick up most philly stations in ABE..in fact I know many people that listen to them all the time because the LV stations just dont cut it
 
Somewhere along the way it looks like Al got the shaft from Delaware and he's out to get them down there! Seriously, one comment about the old WDEL TV is off the mark. WDEL TV (now WHYY TV, still licensed to Wilmington) went off the air after KYW forced NBC to pull its network from the station back in the 1950's. They didn't want the competition. And if you didn't have a network back then, you didn't have a station. It went dark, was sold by the Lancaster media barons Al refers to and reemerged in the 60's as public TV.

Some other data on the Wilmington Metro - sure there is a lot of listening to Philadelphia stations, but the ten DE metro stations, not just WJBR and WSTW, normally push something like a 30 share. And if you add up their cumes, it's strong - around 300,000 last time I saw a Wilmington ranker. Not that bad given all the spill from Philadelphia and Baltimore.

Jerry Lee seams to be making a decent living in Philadelphia radio. If Clear Channel and other groups would stop gutting their stations (voice tracking etc.) and focus on solid programming they should do just fine without having to beg for more cume out of Wilmington.
 
wheatstone said:
Somewhere along the way it looks like Al got the shaft from Delaware and he's out to get them down there! Seriously, one comment about the old WDEL TV is off the mark. WDEL TV (now WHYY TV, still licensed to Wilmington) went off the air after KYW forced NBC to pull its network from the station back in the 1950's. They didn't want the competition. And if you didn't have a network back then, you didn't have a station. It went dark, was sold by the Lancaster media barons Al refers to and reemerged in the 60's as public TV.

Some other data on the Wilmington Metro - sure there is a lot of listening to Philadelphia stations, but the ten DE metro stations, not just WJBR and WSTW, normally push something like a 30 share. And if you add up their cumes, it's strong - around 300,000 last time I saw a Wilmington ranker. Not that bad given all the spill from Philadelphia and Baltimore.

Jerry Lee seams to be making a decent living in Philadelphia radio. If Clear Channel and other groups would stop gutting their stations (voice tracking etc.) and focus on solid programming they should do just fine without having to beg for more cume out of Wilmington.

I'm surprised to see this thread still going.

I enjoy this board, except when people see opinions they disagree with or facts they don't wish to accept and then try to impugn the motives of the person who posted them. In any case, thanks for continuing this conversation.

To recap: The OMB established Metropolitan Statistical Areas based on various factors (including social, economic, transportation and distribution, and media usage). On the face of it, Northern New Castle County has a lot more in common with (and seems more oriented to) Philadelphia and to Chester and Delaware Counties than to Kent and Sussex Counties (although sometimes you wouldn't know that from listening to local news in Wilmington where a routine accident or crime around Georgetown gets more play than bigger incidents just up the road). Yes, I think for the most part state lines drawn by bureaucrats thousands of miles away don't reflect how people really orient their lives. Georgetown has more to do with Salisbury than with Wilmington and Wilmington has more to do with Philadelphia than Georgetown. The MSA's reflect this.

Almost always Arbitron follows the OMB's MSA definitions. As earlier posts pointed out, sometimes Arbitron does designate some embedded markets. Frederick is a "Metro Divsion" within the Washington, DC MSA. San Jose and Santa Rosa are MSAs outside the San-Francisco Oakland MSAs. Wilmington is also a Metro Divsion, included in the Philadelphia MSA, according to the OMB. So back to the original question, why does Arbitron exclude Wilmington from their "Philadelphia MSA," even as an embedded market?

If rim-shots are included, then Delaware stations account for about a 30 per cent average share of listening in the "Wilmington market." Without rim-shots, it's about 20 per cent. Either way, 70 to 80 per cent of radios-in-use are listening to out of market/out of state stations (almost all to Philadelphia stations). In Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton market, the numbers are reversed. More than two thirds of radios are tuned to in-market stations (almost one-third to out-of-market stations). Did all those Wilmingtonians listening to Philly "get the shaft," too?

Trenton is not included in the Philadelphia MSA because Mercer County is divided in its orientation between Philly and New York/North Jersey. In a sense, it really is "Not New York; Not Philadelphia" and both New York and Philadelphia. You can see this clearly on the train platforms in Trenton (and Princeton Junction). North and South bound platforms are equally crowed each morning.

Wilmington is ranked currently as the 75th market in 12 plus population. I haven't seen the BIA rankings lately, but in sales revenue that ranking is about twice that. Did all those advertisers who are not spending money in Wilmington radio "get the shaft," too.

This issue has been raised here before but it's worth mentioning in this context: The Lehigh Valley (viewers and advertisers) support their own independent television station (channel 69) with a strong and very active local news operation. Wilmington's channel 61 offers no comparable local service for Northern Delaware (although two Salisbury stations provide extensive and aggressive coverage of Kent and Sussex Counties). Does channel 61 not offer local programming because it can make more money with infomercials and paid religion (plus an occasional re-run)? Or because of a lack of interest in local news and programming in Wilmington? (Maybe this is a chicken and egg question.) Also brought up on the board before: Wilmington does not have its own public radio station either. And the two stations doing local news in Wilmington added together do not get anywhere near the audience shares of leading local news stations in other markets. Without casting aspersions, I think these are valid questions. Based just on media consumption, most people in Wilmington seem to act like they think they are part of the Philly metro.

And if you didn't have a network back then, you didn't have a station.

False. The stations listed below were commercial VHF stations operated as indies from the 50s until the late 80s or mid 90s (and the launches of Fox, WB and UPN). Some of these are in TV markets smaller than Philly. (I worked for one of them and I was not "shafted.") George B. Storer, a notoriously cheap operator (I never worked for him although I know people who did. I never admired his operations. I was never personally "shafted.") elected to let channel 12 go dark. Ironically, about five years later, Philadelphia channels 17, 29 and 48 signed on and managed to survive and even thrive as indies, despite the additional and major handicap of being UHF stations starting up at a time when most TVs could not receive UHF. Storer went for the quick and easy pay-off and was not willing to invest for the long haul. However, had channel 12 stayed commercial, it most likely would have ended up as a Fox station targeting the entire Philadelphia TV market.

KPHO-TV, Phoenix
KTLA, Los Angeles
KHJ-TV, Los Angeles
KTTV, Los Angeles
KCOP, Los Angeles
KTVU, Oakland
KTVR, Denver
WTTG, Washington
KHON-TV, Honolulu
WGN-TV, Chicago
WTTV, Bloomington-Indianapolis
CKLW-TV, Windsor-Detroit*
WABD, New York
WOR-TV, New York
WPIX-TV, New York
KTNT, Tacoma-Seattle
KTVW, Tacoma-Seattle

*CKLW-TV carried some CBC programmes and functioned mostly as a Detroit independent station owned by RKO-General through the 60s until the Canadian government imposed Canadian content rules and forced the sale of the station to a Canadian broadcaster.
 
rk6781 said:
papaul1967 said:
yeah but your sure cant listen to the philly fm stations in downtown allentown, bethelem or easton even on a car radio because hill ridges just to the south block the signals and the the close proximity of the lehigh valley stations and their harmonics. wilmington and trenton are a different story because of their close proximity to philly

just to clear it up...you can definitely pick up most philly stations in ABE..in fact I know many people that listen to them all the time because the LV stations just dont cut it
i can attest to that..
 
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