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Is Radio the Next Drive-In Theater?

gr8oldies said:
I could ask the next 100 people I walk by who owns the radio stations in my town and maybe two would be able to tell me, let alone be pissed that the people who own all the parking garages in town don't own two of them any more. I question there being a "groundswell". I'll address the issue of "everyone" turning their backs on Wal-Mart. The parking lots are full just about any time I'm there. No one I know pines for the days awhen all the stores closed by 5pm and you had to pay for parking. How much did all those small mom-and-pop retailers pay their employees again? Hmm..Wal mart even brought "big Pharma" to its knees and I can get prescriptions for four bucks.

So, you've been pretty happy watching gasoline prices double in the past 5 years? We have a handful of companies (Exxon/Mobil, Chevron, Conoco-Phillips, BP-Amoco & Shell) controlling oil distribution and working with OPEC to suppress oil production to jerk prices up more than 100 percent.

Monopolies & their first cousins, oligopolies (control by a few) eventually lead to abuse of the customer.

A friend of mine has been with Wal-Mart for 15 years. She worked hard and rose to department manager. Then last year the company issued a salary freeze on all department managers. Why? Because they can.
 
So it would be better for your friend if Wal Mart didn't exist at all?

Probably yes, because we would likely still have many smaller chains (the old K-mart, Sears, Woolworth, etc.) competing for management talent -- and she wouldn't have to wear those damned ugly vests!
 
I think the current FCC commisioner is also starting to realize this. And there may be changes in the future (Already you are seeling the big clusters start to dump there small and medium market stations...maybe they suspect something?) that could bring creativity and competition back in.

By the way, the old stations were not tax losses for big corporations, they were cash cows!
Hell, when I worked for WCZY-FM in Detroit, the station was designed to be a tax write-off for the combined communications group (aka John Bayless) as all the other stations were already cash cows, but by building new facilities, bringing in well paid solid talent, and spending a ton of money on ad parties and tv/outdoor ad campaigns, the damm thing ended up being in the top 3 ratings for several years, and made enormous profits.

Today, radio is run by GUTLESS SALESMAN..not creative driven BROADCASTERS. That still can change.
 
Folks, let me recommend a book to you. Many of you, if not MOST of you, will turn up your nose when I tell you who the author is. Just read the first 3 chapters if you life. Here the author tells the history of of economics systems for the last 50 to 80 years. He does a pretty good job of describing not only his opinion but the opinion of his adversaries. In the rest of the book he will get into how HE would fix the problems, which you may find offensive. Read the first three chapters and then say: "Self, what does all this mean for the radio business?"

The book: $upercapitalism
The author: Robert Reisch
 
gr8oldies said:
I could ask the next 100 people I walk by who owns the radio stations in my town and maybe two would be able to tell me, let alone be pissed that the people who own all the parking garages in town don't own two of them any more. I question there being a "groundswell". I'll address the issue of "everyone" turning their backs on Wal-Mart. The parking lots are full just about any time I'm there. No one I know pines for the days awhen all the stores closed by 5pm and you had to pay for parking. How much did all those small mom-and-pop retailers pay their employees again? Hmm..Wal mart even brought "big Pharma" to its knees and I can get prescriptions for four bucks.

The Wal-Mart/radio analogy is almost as good as the baseball/radio analogy. :)

Wal-Mart brought mass merchandising to new levels, making products more affordable, bringing in tons of jobs where they sometimes didn't exist and offer longer hours & more selection. Mass ownership has brought more formats to cities, more professional sounding operations (in some cases) and more stations to choose from, even in smaller markets.

In both cases, doing so has made the owners shedloads of money. And, in both cases, the towns have lost some of their local character in the process.

I see and hear the cries over the problems with Wal-Mart. But you know what? Americans speak with their actions, and they haven't stopped shopping there. Similarly, lots of radio people cry over where radio is and is headed, but people still tune in to listen.

People just don't care enough about what plays through their radio anymore to have the kind of loyalty that they did "back then". The ones that still do care have defected to the alternatives, and it appears they (we) are not that big of a sector. If we were, satellite radio would be a serious threat and the hype surrounding wi-max and internet radio'd be as big as it was with that garbage iPhone. Instead, XM and Sirius are trying to merge to save their ships and the only ones I know who are anxious about wi-max and streaming radio anywhere are computer and cellphone nerds like myself. No one else cares, and they won't until today's kindergartners are fully grown adults. (That's my prediction and I'm sticking to it.)

::)
 
WalMart, eh? People complain the locals are put out of business...(like the great roll-ups of the late 90's radio licenses..."Sell to us cause you can't compete!") That local wages are driven down (like what consolidation by the big chains did to radio employees) That there is no service (small businesses might feel that way about the radio chain's focus on advertising agency buys) and that the product is created in sweatshop conditions (at least voicetracking hasn't been moved to China).

The walmart-ization of america is a symptom of the loss of community in our country. Price and profit trump all, for many people. Still, in a few communities here and there, people stand up to walmart and refuse to allow the stores in... and likewise, in some communities people have a loyal relationship to radio stations that supply more than just a juke-box or syndicated blow-hard talk show service, and support them over the mass-produced programming available on other stations. Yes, it's a good analogy.
g
 
Zach said:
Mass ownership has brought more formats to cities, more professional sounding operations (in some cases) and more stations to choose from, even in smaller markets.

I see it very differently. Consolidation brought no new stations. Consolidation was the effect of Docket 80-90... the aftermath of the Bonita Springs case whereby moveins, upgrades of class, changes of COL, etc. no longer were major applications requiring hearings and allowing strike applications. That was followed by 80-90 which so overpopulated the FM dial in most small to medium markets nobody was making money. This was all that investors needed to request changes in the ownership rules based on the supposed economies of clusters of stations; in 1995, half of US stations were, in fact, losing money.

In both cases, doing so has made the owners shedloads of money. And, in both cases, the towns have lost some of their local character in the process.

When, to take one market as an example, Lake City, FL which had 3 stations suddenly has 6 with the same revenue base, nobody makes money. Consolidation did not help, but Docket 80-90 destroyed many station's ability to do local news and service.

People just don't care enough about what plays through their radio anymore to have the kind of loyalty that they did "back then". The ones that still do care have defected to the alternatives, and it appears they (we) are not that big of a sector. If we were, satellite radio would be a serious threat and the hype surrounding wi-max and internet radio'd be as big as it was with that garbage iPhone. Instead, XM and Sirius are trying to merge to save their ships and the only ones I know who are anxious about wi-max and streaming radio anywhere are computer and cellphone nerds like myself. No one else cares, and they won't until today's kindergartners are fully grown adults. (That's my prediction and I'm sticking to it.)

When I fell in love with radio, I could count the stations in my hometown (a top 15 market at the time) on the fingers of my hand and had two left over. There were 3 TV stations, and I knew the nightly lineup almost from memory. There were three daily papers and a weekly shopper. That is it for local media. Now there is on declining paper, a dozen TVs, hundreds of cable or sat channels, 30 radio outlets of siome significance, multiple weekly papers, the web and so much more. When there is so much variety it is easier to be a casanova in media usage than being faithful to one outlet. No one medium is vitally important, as there are so many alternatives.

The problem is considering distribution channels to be media outlets. WiMAX is not radio, it is a channel, just as FM transmitters on big towers, buildings or hills are channels. The radio station is the content, not the medium. We will see a change in distribution, and WiMAX will be the heart of it. we are seing AM dying as the main format, news talk, moves to FM... AM and FM are not media, they are channels. The format is the medium and it will go where the sets of ears are.
 
DavidEduardo said:
The problem is considering distribution channels to be media outlets. WiMAX is not radio, it is a channel, just as FM transmitters on big towers, buildings or hills are channels. The radio station is the content, not the medium. We will see a change in distribution, and WiMAX will be the heart of it. we are seing AM dying as the main format, news talk, moves to FM... AM and FM are not media, they are channels. The format is the medium and it will go where the sets of ears are.

Despite his years of experience in radio, I don't always agree with David. It seems we are both fans of radio, but sometimes we have differing opinions based upon our own respective realities. That's OK, and I can respect that..

The quoted statement is very prophetic. I think it truly reflects the future, and anyone in broadcasting should pay attention. We have found an agreement point. I couldn't have said it better.

I hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving.
 
Chuck said:
DavidEduardo said:
The problem is considering distribution channels to be media outlets. WiMAX is not radio, it is a channel, just as FM transmitters on big towers, buildings or hills are channels. The radio station is the content, not the medium. We will see a change in distribution, and WiMAX will be the heart of it. we are seing AM dying as the main format, news talk, moves to FM... AM and FM are not media, they are channels. The format is the medium and it will go where the sets of ears are.

Despite his years of experience in radio, I don't always agree with David. It seems we are both fans of radio, but sometimes we have differing opinions based upon our own respective realities. That's OK, and I can respect that..

The quoted statement is very prophetic. I think it truly reflects the future, and anyone in broadcasting should pay attention. We have found an agreement point. I couldn't have said it better.

I hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving.

This isn't anything new, there has been a chorus of posters on this board who have been talking about the changing radio landscape for a very long time.

But it's nice to see some old-school radio types finally come to the table. Sadly, a couple here still have their heads buried in the sand but they are becoming a vanishing minority.

db
 
grantchester said:
Now radio is dying again... until someone comes up with something new.
Until someone comes up with something compelling enough for people to listen. Comes up with something that gives people a reason to listen to the radio, not turn it off.
 
grantchester said:
Radio died when TV came in... but then something new was created by McClendon, Blore, et al... and Radio came roaring back. Then AM died again, as FM took over music programming... then Rush came on and showed that people would tune in if there is a compelling reason to. Now radio is dying again... until someone comes up with something new. I've got a few ideas, but it's a risk to try something without a track record.

Sorry if this sounds a little "political", but if we want to extend the theatrical analogy, IMO to hail Rush in this way is like hailing the advent of XXX cinema for giving people a compelling reason to return to the neighbourhood picture house.

Though actually, if one wants to take a wide-angle-lens view, it might not be so "political" a judgment as it appears...
 
Returning to the drive in analogy, I think radio won't die... but it will have a near death experience.

By 2020, I'm guessing that two-thirds of AM stations currently on the air will go dark, and about 10 percent of FM stations.

When the dust settles, I think a small fraction of terrestrial radio stations will serve an audience that loves the nostalgia of turning on a stand alone box and getting sound out of it -- much the way the 500 or so remaining drive-ins in 2007 scratch that itch for their customers.
 
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