D
DuckBlue
Guest
This analyst seems to think so.
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/why-sirius-radio-siri-is-doomed/10711
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/why-sirius-radio-siri-is-doomed/10711
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Yea, and no other stocks have dropped to near extinction due to the recent collapse of Wall Street and investors are making decisions based on logic rather than emotion. Please! The only thing doomed is the topic.
A long-standing, tried-and-true axiom of the biz world is grow or perish. XM/Sirius is not growing, has not grown recently and has very dim prospects of growing in the future. Coupled with the otherwise really tough stock market and financial issues of the day it will be virtually impossible for them to remain a viable service for many more months.
Even if the market were to begin a recovery tomorrow it would not help XM/Sirius more than very marginally since their problem is not directly related to the market but rather to a service which is being ignored by a substantial number of potential customers. Even stuffing sat radio's in new cars does not seem to be helping.
Even if the market were to begin a recovery tomorrow it would not help XM/Sirius more than very marginally since their problem is not directly related to the market but rather to a service which is being ignored by a substantial number of potential customers. Even stuffing sat radio's in new cars does not seem to be helping.
Sirius is the second largest U.S. subscription media business behind Comcast with 19.1 mil subs
Sirius subs went from 17.4-19.1 in 2008 even with the economic slowdown
That breaks down to 10.1 mill OEM subs and 9.0 after market subs
OEM gross ads were 5.8 mil
Churn rates remain low at 1.77%
Revenue growth has increased this year from $2.1 bil to $2.4 bil
Like any business in these times 2008 Ending Subscribers Growth Rate is 10%, slower but still positive
The combined OEM penetration as a percentage of U.S. auto sales is greater than 50%
Just for the record, Sirius has shown continued subscriber growth despite weak OEM sales for the last 7 years - 9.3/2005, 13.7/2006, 17.4/2007, 19.1/2008, 20.6/2009E
The enterprise value / revenue comparison is second only to Apple at 1.46 (Apple 1.98)
Sirius will break even in cash flow in 2009 and show a positive in 2010 based on estimates.
According to Merrill Lynch or Consensus Estimates Sirius will be among the fastest growing U.S. media businesses at 13%
So other than terrestrial radio that is loosing a heck of a lot of audience and will have double digit loses this year, and a few people here that have no idea what they are talking about, Sirius is on the way to being the most listened to radio entity in the country. Wait, they already are.
Sirius subs went from 17.4-19.1 in 2008 even with the economic slowdown
That breaks down to 10.1 mill OEM subs and 9.0 after market subs
OEM gross ads were 5.8 mil
Churn rates remain low at 1.77%
Revenue growth has increased this year from $2.1 bil to $2.4 bil
Like any business in these times 2008 Ending Subscribers Growth Rate is 10%, slower but still positive
The combined OEM penetration as a percentage of U.S. auto sales is greater than 50%
Just for the record, Sirius has shown continued subscriber growth despite weak OEM sales for the last 7 years - 9.3/2005, 13.7/2006, 17.4/2007, 19.1/2008, 20.6/2009E
The enterprise value / revenue comparison is second only to Apple at 1.46 (Apple 1.98)
Sirius will break even in cash flow in 2009 and show a positive in 2010 based on estimates.
According to Merrill Lynch or Consensus Estimates Sirius will be among the fastest growing U.S. media businesses at 13%
So other than terrestrial radio that is loosing a heck of a lot of audience and will have double digit loses this year, and a few people here that have no idea what they are talking about, Sirius is on the way to being the most listened to radio entity in the country. Wait, they already are.
Any info you read on a public company always comes from the company, whether you read it in a the companies stock report, or an article in a newspaper.
I've read elsewhere the actual churn rate's a lot higher than 1.77%. All in the way you do your accounting... they only count net gain/loss. So you could have 2 million subscribers cancel but as long as 2.02 million new subs pick up (even if they're OEM's that never get activated and sit in lots for months and months... the way Sirius likes to count 'em) you've only got 1.77% churn rate. I'd love to know where those 19.1 million subscribers are. That should be about one out of seven people in the nation subscribing to the service, however out of all my friends, relatives, and co-workers (a circle of oh, about 200+ people), I only know one other person who subscribed to Sirius or XM and he's the person who recommended satrad to me and has since cancelled due to the merger.
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