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Is The "Howard Stern Factor" over rated?

The 'Howard Stern Factor' is Overrated: Few Americans Expect to Purchase Satellite Radio

A survey by American Media Services also finds: nearly two-thirds of those surveyed say their radio listening habits are about the same or have increased during the past five years

CHARLESTON, S.C., Jan. 26 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite recent media attention
about shock jock Howard Stern's widely publicized transfer to satellite radio,
a nationwide survey indicates a large majority of Americans (86 percent) are
not likely to consider the purchase of satellite radio in the future because
of his move.

Broken down further, 69 percent of those responding said they were "not at
all likely" to consider purchasing satellite, and 17 percent said they were
"not very likely" to after Stern's move. The respondents' negative reaction
to the Stern question was even stronger than another question that asked their
likelihood of paying for satellite service.

In that question, respondents were first told that satellite radio usage
requires the purchase of equipment and a monthly fee, then were asked if they
were likely to purchase satellite radio over the next year. Eighty-two
percent said such a purchase was unlikely, with 64 percent saying they were
"not at all likely," and 18 percent responding "not very likely." Eighty-
eight percent of those surveyed responded that they are not subscribers of
satellite radio.

"We have long suspected that all the national media interest in Stern and
satellite radio did not reflect what was going on with the American consumer,"
said Ed Seeger, President and Chief Executive Officer of American Media
Services (AMS), which commissioned the survey. "These are dynamic times for
conventional broadcast radio; there are lots of new opportunities with the
emerging technologies, and radio has proven again and again that it is here to
stay."

The survey also revealed that almost two-thirds of those surveyed -- 64
percent -- responded that they are listening to radio more, or about the same
amount of time, as they were five years ago.

AMS Findings Bolstered by Second Survey

Seeger noted that the AMS findings are supported by another survey
released in January by the Center for Media Research that found conventional
radio listenership beginning to stabilize. "This supporting finding is a
result of radio owners' decisions to lower commercial loads and concentrate on
content," he added. "We believe that there are compelling numbers in these
results that indicate radio will continue to be a strong contender for
consumers' attention."

The AMS survey was a random digital dial telephone survey of 1,008
American adults that was conducted by Roper OmniTel, the weekly omnibus survey
of GfK NOP of Princeton, N.J. The survey was conducted over the weekends of
January 13-15, 2006, and January 20-22, 2006. A random sample of this size
reflects American opinion within plus or minus three percentage points.

Additional Stern-related findings indicated that only 12 percent of
respondents were likely to consider purchasing satellite radio to listen to
Stern. Of those respondents, most fell into the 18-34 age group, and men
outnumbered women two to one. Outside of that age group, the respondents'
likelihood of purchasing satellite because of Stern fell off sharply.

"Listening to local radio continues to be a part of the American fabric,
and this survey supports that," Seeger said.

What the Consumer Likes About Local Radio

The survey also asked the 1,008 respondents what they liked best in
conventional radio. Thirty-three percent of them said "local traffic and
weather information," while another 25 percent said they liked radio because
"it's always available when you need it." Thirteen percent said they liked
radio because it helped connect them to events taking place in their
community, and 10 percent said they liked radio because they knew they could
get vital information from radio in case of an emergency. As to what
consumers did not like about radio, 57 percent responded that "the amount of
time for commercials" is the highest on their lists.

"This survey has reinforced what we have known for several years, that
local radio has a unique and unmatched place in the American community," AMS's
Seeger said. "Other technologies are going to be there to compete, but radio
has made some fundamental changes over the past couple of years, and I think
the consumer knows that."
 
The Howard Stern

For a second there, while reading the title of the post, I thought Bill O'Reilly has been replaced.

More to the point. When I read a post that quotes a "survey" or "research, my reporter-instinct kicks in along with my radio-induced cynicism. My first inclination is to ask "who commissioned the report?" and "what's their mission?"

So, I Googled (verb, transitive) American Media Services and what did I find? Click the link and you'll see that they're media brokers and consultants, which means they have a vested interest in maintaining, if not enhancing the values of radio station properties and the interests of those companies which own radio AM & FM (terrestrial) stations.

Next, take a look at the report and determine "who" was surveyed and what the specific questions were? 18-34, 25-54 Men? Economic strata?

Looking at "research" requires a jaundiced eye, because as all of us radio monkeys know, so much of the research we've seen, read and in some cases, commissioned over the years can easily be designed and manipulated to prove what we WANT it to prove. I recall working at an AOR years ago. The PD wanted to play more AC/DC, so he posed a question to an 18-34 male focus group along the lines of "would you prefer to hear more Fleetwood Mac or AC/DC?" Duh. Guess what the result was?

The questions can be formulated to set up or skew the outcome of research. It's not the way REAL research based on the scientific method, is supposed to work, but in media it often ends up that way.

Case in point. In Western New York, The Buffalo News announced that it will phase out its afternoon editions within the next 12-18 months "after extensive market reasearch" indicated that readers WANTED a morning paper.

What News publisher Stanford Lipsey and his cabal didn't mention was that it costs a lot of money to truck ("deliver") a morning and evening paper all over Western New York; that newsprint costs are escalating and that the price of fuel isn't expected to go down substantially in the foreseeable future. Add to that, the labor costs of delivering a morning and afternoon editions and it's easy to see why the News' ahem, "research" showed a preference for a morning (only) edition.

But I digress.

I'm not a Stern fanatic. I can take him or leave him. Now that he's moved to subscriber based radio, I'm content to "leave" him. Clearly, he's a media genius with a penchant for successfully promoting himself and his own financial interests above all else at every turn. The fact is, he KNOWS how to get ink, pub and face-time; he got more pub with his move to Sirius than any ten major market morning guys have gotten in the last five years. Genius.

That said, I personally don't think he's going to move that many more bodies to Sirius over the next three years. Sure, he'll have more listeners nationally on satellite than most morning shows have regionally or in one market, but it won't compare to the estimated 15 million listeners he had when he was on terrestrial radio nationally. I think that should be the baseline for any comparison regarding Stern on Sirius vs. Stern on FM.

My personal opinion agrees with the research, DB, but I'm not convinced the research proves anything the company that commissioned it didn't design it to reveal in the first place. Therefore, it's not much more than "opinion reinforcement."

-9-
 
Re: The Howard Stern "Factor?"

Very well put, and true. You hit every point I wanted to respond to.

Stern already took over a majority of people that were going to go.

Only people left to possibly migrate will be the ones that are sampling the "replacement" personalities, and are not satisfied. That small group might consider moving to satellite to get their Howard fix, or simply drop off and find something else besides radio to listen to. But, did the survey even ask that question? <P ID="signature">______________

"Z"
Music Coordinator/Technical Support</P>
 
Re: The Howard Stern "Factor?"

> Very well put, and true. You hit every point I wanted to
> respond to.
>
> Stern already took over a majority of people that were going
> to go.
>
> Only people left to possibly migrate will be the ones that
> are sampling the "replacement" personalities, and are not
> satisfied. That small group might consider moving to
> satellite to get their Howard fix, or simply drop off and
> find something else besides radio to listen to. But, did the
> survey even ask that question?
>

Then again, you might want to read this take from Radio & Records. Stern and his agent are laughing all the way to the bank.

It's too early to say how Stern's audience will grow and if he'll hit the magic subscription number. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Stern (even though I'd kind of like to see him crash) and Sirius because they know this is a make-or-break proposition and they're partners in the the deal. Each benefits from the success of the other.

One thing's certain, I'll bet morning guys and jocks in terrestrial radio would salivate to have a bonus deal a tenth as generous as the one Sirius gave Stern.
 
Re: The Howard Stern "Factor?"

I bow down to Element 9 on this one. Very well put...and researched far better than I had even thought to do. In fact I had no opinion on the subject; I only posted the article to see what everyone here had to say about it (if anything).
 
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