"Isolation" & The Effects on the Future of Radio

[Lee Rust]

Once again, the problem for radio is that there are SO many ways for people to hear music. For internet or cellphone savvy music-lovers, the days of exclusive, intensive, all-day listening to somebody else's music choices are past. It's so easy to browse iTunes and be your own private programmer.

Those potential listeners who don't have the time or inclination to program for themselves are covered, too. When I heard Pandora for the first time, I knew the writing was on the wall for music radio.

Don't get me wrong, broadcast radio will continue to have an audience for many years to come. Just that the numbers will always be declining as listeners gradually learn about the alternatives or simply die off.

I'm sure that a radio station or group covering a rural area that largely lacked broadband internet could continue to serve an audience in the old-fashioned way. Emphasis on "old-fashioned". That's great, but it means that sustainable broadcast radio might well end up being a strictly exurban phenomenon. The cities and suburbs will probably become mostly internet-based media zones, with a few powerful and generic commercial broadcast stations run on very low budgets. The recent reports of further streamlining of WHAM's operations bear this out.

Public or non-commercial broadcast stations will endure only to the extent that they can convince their listeners to directly pay for operational costs. There will be little to no government support. That's why WXXI is fundraising every couple of months these days, instead of just a few times a year.

 

[JimmyJames]

My experience is mostly in smaller markets. You'd be amazed at how many people are still trying to figure out how to set up their computer to listen to a streamed high school sportscast. The "smartphone" crowd is limited to the engineers and execs who work at the area industries, not the average consumer. IPhones? AT&T's 3G signal isn't even in some of the markets I've worked.

I think sometimes we become concerned about this technology because we're all in the know about it from industry sites or being first adopters. But as a broadcaster, I realistically look at the time frame for the adoption of these things and the access to them.

To the adults I know, who may very well love music, with a degree, a job, kids, and hobbies, taking the time to "browse ITunes" or thumbs up thumbs down Pandora isn't the simple thing we sometimes believe it to be. Yes, there's tons of ways to discover music, but will those forms of discovery relate to the daily concerns and community that someone resides in, works in, spends their money in? Radio programmed locally and with a knowledge of who they're targeting most certainly can, and it's as easy as turning it on and up.

 

[TheBigA]

Radio programmed locally and with a knowledge of who they're targeting most certainly can, and it's as easy as turning it on and up.

All that's fine, but it's a big leap between saying radio is easy to tune in, and saying adults will listen to unknown music by unknown artists. My TV is easy to tune in, and there are long portions of the day, sometimes even several days in a row, when I don't bother. There's a limit to the amount of discovery people are able to absorb. And there's a small number of extreme music fans who share your interest in new music discovery. You start with a small number, especially in a small market, then spread it out over multiple media, and the number gets even smaller. That's not good if you're income is from advertising.

 

[JimmyJames]

What I was addressing wasn't the idea of throwing a bunch of unfamiliar music at people. The point was more related to this theme of music discovery that keeps getting brought up in the thread. In my post prior to this one, I mentioned the importance of relating to the daily concerns and community that these people live and work within.

What I think is most important is context. If you present something in a way that is relevant to people but concise, be it a new song next to a classic, or a public service item, having your product truly relating to these listeners is a way radio can deal with these new challenges. There's no local to Pandora. ITunes is a store. There's nothing about them that informs you how you can get involved in the local schools, help in a relief effort, or telling visitors in town not to park on the streets because the city will be plowing snow at 5 AM.

Yes, I'm mixing elements here but my overall point is that in a culture that becomes more and more "isolated", something that connects people, to community, to whatever style and package of music they're into, will be novel and interesting to people. I know to most of us this is what radio used to do but maybe some people haven't known radio that ever has done it.

 

[TheBigA]

I know to most of us this is what radio used to do but maybe some people haven't known radio that ever has done it.

But my point is that radio STILL does it. Maybe not in every format or every genre, but it's still being done. You can think you're presenting something that's relevant, relatable, and compelling. But if the people you're aiming at are not paying attention, then your message gets missed. Meanwhile, people GO to Pandora and iTunes for specific reasons, so they're paying attention, not accidental listeners.

 

[adma]

Yes, I'm mixing elements here but my overall point is that in a culture that becomes more and more "isolated", something that connects people, to community, to whatever style and package of music they're into, will be novel and interesting to people. I know to most of us this is what radio used to do but maybe some people haven't known radio that ever has done it.

Well, maybe even there, radio's not only an antiquated way to go about it, but it's been superceded by "better stuff". Like if you're thinking of "community" vs "isolation", if we look at the larger and more cosmopolitan markets where radio-as-we-knew-it has fallen most by the wayside, phenomena from alt-weeklies to urban blogs have filled that "community" space far more effectively--to the point where locals are inherently more engaged, not less, I'd suspect...

 

[amfmxm]

Once again, the problem for radio is that there are SO many ways for people to hear music. For internet or cellphone savvy music-lovers, the days of exclusive, intensive, all-day listening to somebody else's music choices are past. It's so easy to browse iTunes and be your own private programmer.

Those potential listeners who don't have the time or inclination to program for themselves are covered, too. When I heard Pandora for the first time, I knew the writing was on the wall for music radio.

Don't get me wrong, broadcast radio will continue to have an audience for many years to come. Just that the numbers will always be declining as listeners gradually learn about the alternatives or simply die off.

I'm sure that a radio station or group covering a rural area that largely lacked broadband internet could continue to serve an audience in the old-fashioned way. Emphasis on "old-fashioned". That's great, but it means that sustainable broadcast radio might well end up being a strictly exurban phenomenon. The cities and suburbs will probably become mostly internet-based media zones, with a few powerful and generic commercial broadcast stations run on very low budgets. The recent reports of further streamlining of WHAM's operations bear this out.

Public or non-commercial broadcast stations will endure only to the extent that they can convince their listeners to directly pay for operational costs. There will be little to no government support. That's why WXXI is fundraising every couple of months these days, instead of just a few times a year.

Nice summary, but here's another perspective...

* There have always been SO many other ways to hear music: 45s & LPs, 8-tracks & cassettes, CDs... different technologies but the same function. People get tired ("burn factor") of hearing the same stuff over & over--and/or doing the work involved to create "variety."

* A study released just the other week showed Pandora experiencing huge & fast "burn factor." I experienced the same thing myself. Started with an Al Jarreau song and got a big kick out of "my personal radio station" for a few weeks, then... yawn. Talk about hyper-niches: Pandora hones in on a niche of one!

* A study released at the end of October by Nielsen showed radio with enormous daily usage/cume: 78 percent of all adults listening EVERY DAY. Us radio types are used to seeing Arbitron weekly cume ratings instead--and have become blase about our 92 percent weekly usage (the sky is falling--it was 94 percent just 10 years ago). Radio continues to be enormous, like it or not.

* Public radio has been generating more than 90 percent of its operating revenue from private sources for years now. Most public radio stations get around 5 percent of their budgets from "government" (CPB or elsewhere). They're fine. Hell, go take a tour of your local public radio station. They all tend to have facilities that we commercial guys can only dream about.

 

[John FL]

This has been a rather interesting subject. Life today to include changes for many in the workplace have resulted in a behavioral change. Today's technology does not necessarily predict radio's demise. Those who recognize and understand our changing world will be the succesful ones when they create a product/format/playlist - whatever that reflects different demands and tastes of listeners. I don't believe radio listening is doomed to decline but rather the audience can actually be dispersed over the miles rather than be concentrated in one market. Some say content is not as important as it once was but there has to be something that acts as a hook bringing in all kinds of consumers no matter where they are. Certainly, there are tons of choices and in the end I believe the things that are executed well by those who know what they are doing have better odds of winning. I think there is still a lot of life left in radio especially in pockets of isolation. One of the biggest obstacles to radio IMHO is that the assumptions made about consumers under the advertising rules are becoming increasingly out-of-touch.

This week I had the opportunity to visit with a couple of folks on my work team who office from home. They had some operation and it was pretty cool to see. Interesting was both appeared to be in their late 50's and I asked if the company got them all these techo wonders. They said hell no - they provide just the laptop. In the end, they indicated that they look for good deals and got these things to make their work and downtime experiences better. The next time you visit an electronics store, check out the people around you. There are all different ages including those who advertisers don't like. My friends, the times are bringing about changes in the consumer that are not in keeping with the rules of advertising.

I often wonder how many 55+ actually own a computer, cell phone, fax machine, iPod and on and on. People over a certain age don't stop buying cars either. If I can sterotype for just a moment, I may agree younger people can tend to be more impulsive and more swayed by an advertiser, but older folks who are budget concerned actually look for good deals. Hmm, it sounds like there is a market to me. Seriously, technolgoy is not just for the young anymore. Yours truly will even confess that I just love all my elctronic toys.

I am in North Florida and I noticed one of the people I visited was listening to an internet radio station from western PA. Curious, I asked what was so fascinating about the station and she said her dad lives there. He's elderly and she is concerned about him. Listening to that station kept her informed about what was going on locally (like bad weather) and in some ways it brought her closer to her dad. Here's a station that has a listener over 1000 miles away connected by something personal and in a way to break that isolation.

 

[Tom Wells]

My point was more focused on the idea that there are tons of ways to "discover" but that most adults don't really have the time to engage in that process. So, is that a role radio can play for them still? I think so.

I think what you'll find is there are a lot of stations doing that, and they're all at the bottom of the ratings pile. That's what a lot of non-commercial stations do. WFUV in New York is a great example. Indie 103 did a wonderful job in LA until its owner pulled the plug. If you can make your payroll without getting ratings, then this is for you. But it's not going to be a mass appeal thing and it's going to be a struggle getting money. Adults, as a whole, simply aren't all that interested. Those who are already subscribe to satellite or something that gives them personalization options.

I spent a chunk of my career thinking that it's all about the music, and the public is as passionate as I am about music and artists. I played all the obscure music and told all the stories about the songs. Then I found out that PT Barnum was right, and what he said still holds up after 150 years.

I would have probably liked your obscure music and background info on the music.
I have always looked to radio for new music, and there is a lot less to be heard out there these days, but I still hear new (or old/unknown) music frequently.
PT Barnum made a lot of money, but I have lot more respect for those who value more than the bottom line.
My favorite radio choices have always been stations who seem to do what they want without regard for widespread appeal.

My 6 year old began to take a real shine to her older sister's AM/FM 1950's style Crosley portable radio, and more or less demanded
that she get her own radio rightaway, like now, please. Here ya go, honey, I'll buy you a radio even if I don't like what you choose to listen to.
And if posible it had to be the same kind. OK, that's done.
Of course, I'm somewhat responsible for them having more than average exposure to radio.
They are my test group if I question if a particular song is good in the mix on my part 15.

 

[gr8oldies]

I don't think you can discount the fact that there comes a time when most....certainly not all.,people cease being interested in new music as popular tastes change. Mine happened around 1990.

 

[KeithE4]

I don't think you can discount the fact that there comes a time when most....certainly not all.,people cease being interested in new music as popular tastes change. Mine happened around 1990.

One begins to develop their tastes in music usually around age 10, and loses interest in new stuff around the time they hit 30, which would be a range of 1965-85 for me.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

I don't think you can discount the fact that there comes a time when most....certainly not all.,people cease being interested in new music as popular tastes change. Mine happened around 1990.

One begins to develop their tastes in music usually around age 10, and loses interest in new stuff around the time they hit 30, which would be a range of 1965-85 for me.

I don't know guys. I am having trouble buying into this rigid, shallow time-line you guys are proposing.

From what you have posted, you are basing this on your own personal taste and circumstances. Do you have any research to back this up?

Do people lose their thirst for music, including new music.... or do the circumstances of life start hammering adults at a certain age where they realize they have got to earn more to pay for children's college and then that big thundering freight train called "getting invested for retirement" grabs you attention and you just don't have time, energy and mad-money for music and concert tickets.

Do you really think those of us who receive a bank deposit every month from Social Security do not enjoy discovering new music? Obviously the broadcasting industry is saturated with your mindset.

 

[KeithE4]

I don't think you can discount the fact that there comes a time when most....certainly not all.,people cease being interested in new music as popular tastes change. Mine happened around 1990.

One begins to develop their tastes in music usually around age 10, and loses interest in new stuff around the time they hit 30, which would be a range of 1965-85 for me.

I don't know guys. I am having trouble buying into this rigid, shallow time-line you guys are proposing.

From what you have posted, you are basing this on your own personal taste and circumstances. Do you have any research to back this up?

Nope, I'm just going by experience with what I, and people I know, have gone through. Anecdotal to be sure, but I doubt that I'm the only one that went through this.

Do people lose their thirst for music, including new music.... or do the circumstances of life start hammering adults at a certain age where they realize they have got to earn more to pay for children's college and then that big thundering freight train called "getting invested for retirement" grabs you attention and you just don't have time, energy and mad-money for music and concert tickets.

Just like my parents grew up with Big Band music and hated rock & roll, I grew up with rock beginning just before the British Invasion and getting tired of it right after the start of MTV. I have no use whatsoever for what passes for popular "music" today. Not all of it is garbage, just 90% of it (just like my folks used to think of Led Zeppelin and Hendrix). But then, I'm 54 and not expected to like what the kids like. And get off my lawn! ;D

Do you really think those of us who receive a bank deposit every month from Social Security do not enjoy discovering new music? Obviously the broadcasting industry is saturated with your mindset.

And how much Rap do you listen to?

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

I purposely left out a part of the message that kicked off this little side-thread:

people cease being interested in new music as popular tastes change.

With that included in the proposition.... then you and great oldies are ON TARGET.

So what is the real question? Do people no longer care about NEW MUSIC as they get older,

or.... Do people no longer care about POPULAR TASTES as they get older?

As newlyweds we bought our first furniture in the POPULAR TASTES of the day. Twenty years later we found ourselves buying furniture of a more classic design. We gained a NEW TASTE.

And you don't find any 2-door 2-seat roadster/convertibles in my garage. But I am contemplating a NEW DESIGN in a hybrid for my next acquisition.

And you will find me now and then on the campus of a seminary with the 23 and 24 year old clerics-to-be gleaning what is NEW THEOLOGY.

And I finished up my working years in a Business Process Improvement group.... helping identify and discover NEW METHODOLOGY for operation of the corporation.

In the practical world, it appears that as we get older we no longer are interested in new music. In a world that does honest research we would probably learn that as we get older we are still interested in new music, but both the music industry and the broadcast industry are too "ISOLATED" to recognize and discover that.

And our original question of this thread is: Isolation & the Effects on the Future of Radio.

 

[gr8oldies]

I don't know what research has or hasn't been done on adults and new music. I'd only say that if adults were as interested as teens, we'd see CHRs with older demos. My divorce from the top 40 occurred when styles I like were replaced by hip hop and grunge. I may hear the occasional new song I like, but it's few and far between. No doubt I could scour the internet and find some new music I like, but it would probably have a lot in common with what I liked in the past. I'll hazard a guess as to why new music with adult appeal isn't a radio format is adults seeking new music being so divergent in styles they are looking for that there would never be a "consensus" top 40 adult hits. So library formats remain popular, and our local outdoor venue is sold out summer after summer when 60s, 70s and 80s acts come to town.

 

[TheBigA]

It's become a bit more complicated than simply saying older people don't like new music. What seems to happen is that some behave as their parents do, and stick with the hits they loved in their teens and 20s. These are the folks who congregate around forms of AC. But there's a group that behaves very different. They move from genres as they age. Because country is a currents-based format that has an average age of about 42, which is pretty old for such a format. Forms of AAA have older median ages. Same with Smooth Jazz. The median age for Americana, which is built around current music by classic artists, is in the mid-50s. So there are several currents-based formats with older audiences. Some, like Americana and Smooth Jazz, are having a tough time getting advertisers due to the aging demo.

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Our current economic crunch may be looked back on in a few years as just one more hick-up in the trends of the last 70 years, or it may turn out to be viewed as game-changer in the same class as the events of 1929-1932.

If, emphasis on the IF, this indeed is a game-changer to our economic thinking, and if, another emphasis on the IF, the "green" movement gains traction because it is recognized as essential to our survival, then might see revamped attitudes on how we evaluate the desirability of the demographic groups as customers.

I'm not holding my breath. We are probably 30 or 40 years from being able to evaluate my "IF"s with any accuracy. The same time frame is probably needed to see a change, if any, in the "Isolation" we are discussing.

 

[Lee Rust]

From all the evidence I've studied over the past few years, the impending end of a century of cheap and plentiful energy will indeed make the developing economic crisis a real game-changer. For Americans in particular, at some point soon we're going to have to raise up our eyes from our liquid crystal screens, shake off our ear buds and start paying attention to what's going on in the real world around us. We'll have to forsake our virtual electronic tribes and start living and working together in co-operative physical communities again. We'll have to give up a lot of the conveniences and comforts we've been used to, but I believe we'll regain many of the important social values that have been lost along the way.

Perhaps future sociologists or historians will take the time to study just how well broadcast radio technology fared in the brave new world that emerged out of our current metamorphic period.

Will the scribes of the early 22nd century record the biographies of Tesla, Armstrong, Lennon and Limbaugh on tattered scraps of recycled paper or will they program them into some inconceivably elegant and unimaginable multimedia device?

 

[firepoint525]

It isn't so much that we "lose" interest in "new" music by the time we are 30, it's just that the most heavily promoted new music usually no longer speaks to us. Yeah, I, too, fell out of favor with top 40 in the early '90s when grunge took over. I never "got" grunge. There was, of course, still new music out there, but it was being overshadowed by that which I didn't like. Still a lot of good new music out there, but you must dig beyond the "flavor of the month" styles to find some of it, because it won't make it onto top 40 radio. But it's always been that way. Even in my heyday, there was music from "my" generation that I didn't particularly like. It always seemed like the types of music that I liked were not the most heavily promoted, or the most played on radio. And it's still that way. I think we simply become more keenly aware of it by the time we are 30.

 

[amfmxm]

FWIW, several of our stations are mainstream Adult Contemps, and they do very well in their respective markets playing significant amounts of "new" music (both "significant" and "new" admittedly being relative terms). By "significant" I mean around 40 percent. And by "new" I mean either currently charted or--as re-currents--having charted within the past year or so. Like most smaller-market stations we essentially steal research from the larger monitored markets where primary music research is done (call-out, auditorium testing) and our interpretation is that people ("adults") in our core demographic cells--women & adults 25-54 + 35-64--still like to hear newer songs, but also enjoy hearing familiar songs. Our stations perform very well in these demos and don't play anything prior to around 1980--with the vast majority of tunes coming from the past 20 years.

55-year-olds get bored hearing the same shit over & over, too...