David at USC said:
David...you've made these points before, and they have been countered by others
Countered, but none too successfully. My reference is the plotting of diary at-work and at-home listening ZIPs vs. signals. And it shows that there is very little listening in LA outside the 10 mv/m coverage, and most is inside the 15 mv/m.
First, KFWB's stick is in an ideal location (next to downtown on the edge of East LA, co-located with KLAC) to cover a large part of the metro area with the limited 5K it puts out.
For an English talk station, that means most of the signal is wasted over areas of high density ethnic concentration, where the sort of format you describe would get little listening.
You yourself stated that it has 80% the potential of the much lower on the dial located KABC and 790 was a dominant station in this market 20 years ago, a time when the population spread across the Southland was already very extensive. So 5K stations like KFWB and KTLK and KABC do have the signal reach into enough of the market IF their programming is compelling.
The noise level 20 years ago did not include a computer on every desk and every home, dimmers, CFLs and all that stuff in the concentrations we have now. It takes twice the signal, at least, today to overcome intereference that was required 20 years ago.
Regarding KGO's legacy, I am stunned you would say that given with your resume (that you often bring up about how you have launched stations in markets across North and South America). 5 decades ago KGO was a newly launched product.
No, KGO was a facelifted product, a transformation of a tired old network station but one with, then, 60 years of heritage dating back before W.W. I.
Just as the WSJ wrote the other day how P&G is planning on rolling out many new products this year, there is always room for innovation and new products, services, concepts, programs, and formats.
First, P&G is considered great because nearly 50% of their product launches succeed, in a field, package goods, where 75% failure is more common.
Second, P&G is not launching... for example... new oven cleaners because all ovens today are self cleaning, and there is no need for a product that solves a need among an obsolete product category. That's the issue... how many new and successful AM talk formats have been launched in the last decade? With much talk moving to FM, it is fairly certain that the same will happen in LA and who would want to invest in a costly product on an AM... one with deficient coverage?
Lastly, in a market this size there is the reach, and the talent, and the monetization (ad revenue) available, especially for a station like 980 that is not servicing a debt related to its acquisition.
On the debt issue, it depends who buys it eventualy. CBS is not going to spend on a station they most likely can't keep. As to programming and sales, AM talk is dreadfully 55+, with KGO having been as low as 20th in 25-54 in the PPM. There is no way to monetize a new 55+ station. And the under-55's will not go to a new AM... it is tough enough for KFI to get some of them... enough to be around 15th to 18th in 25-54.