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It's coming: The end of the advertising model

S

SaltyDog

This story is about TV, but it applies to radio. It supports my notion that while radio may thrive, the advertising model is going to be toast.

Wall Street Journal:

"When CBS and NBC broke a longtime taboo by making hit prime-time shows available through video-on-demand services this week, it wasn't to get rich on the 99-cent download model. Anyone with a digital video recording device such as TiVo can already access shows when they want, and millions more Americans are likely to have such technology in the near future.

Broadcasters are scrambling to gain a foothold as their traditional business landscape starts to crumble. Technology, from video-enabled cell phones to DVRs to the Internet, is increasingly putting content at consumers' fingertips. At the same time, it is pushing the networks away from their decades-old model of broadcasting shows for free and selling ads to make money."

Full text HERE
<P ID="signature">______________
"Radio on the Internet is yet another world-shrinking example of what communications analysts call 'death of distance.'" - Tim Jones

<a href="http://saltydog.5gigs.com">
The Salty Dog</a>
</P>
 
Begging the Question(s)

I heard the story last night on the network news. It begs several questions:

"Will the cost of advertising go down as fewer viewers watch the programs in real time?"

"Will the commercials be included in the downloads?"

"How long before somebody has a program that automatically strips out commercials during the download?"

"Will cable and satellite rates go down as more people drop cable for high-speed downloads of the programs they want to see?"

"How long before the whole broadcast model goes by the wayside as on-demand becomes the preferred delivery method for both radio and TV?"

"How do I get people to pick MY podcast instead of the Clear Channel Corporate Programming Podcast?"
 
Re: Begging the Question(s)

> "Will the commercials be included in the downloads?"

NBC's from Directv and ABC's from iTunes are I believe. I have not heard about CBS'.

-A <P ID="signature">______________

</P>
 
Re: Begging the Question(s)

> > "Will the commercials be included in the downloads?"
>
> NBC's from Directv and ABC's from iTunes are I believe. I
> have not heard about CBS'.
>
> -A
>
It was my understanding that ABC would be taking the commercials out of its shows.

As far as SirRoxalot's questions,
1) One would think so. Assuming of course that Nielson confrims this.
2) See above
3) Not applicable
4) I would think they would increase. Less quantity usually means higher prices.
5) Never...the networks would die first.
6) Good luck.
 
Re: Begging the Question(s)

> "How do I get people to pick MY podcast instead of the Clear
> Channel Corporate Programming Podcast?"

Spend several million dollars promoting it, and making it better thah the Clear Channel podcast.
 
Re: Begging the Question(s)

> I heard the story last night on the network news. It begs
> several questions:
>
> "Will the cost of advertising go down as fewer viewers watch
> the programs in real time?"

Yes. It would probably also lead to fewer major advertising campaigns being launched on TV.
>
> "Will the commercials be included in the downloads?"

NBC's will be.

>
> "How long before somebody has a program that automatically
> strips out commercials during the download?"

Not sure if that's possible. The shows would be a single compressed file, commercials and all.

>
> "Will cable and satellite rates go down as more people drop
> cable for high-speed downloads of the programs they want to
> see?"

Yes. That's starting to happen already as more people discover highly illegal and wrong downloading methods.

>
> "How long before the whole broadcast model goes by the
> wayside as on-demand becomes the preferred delivery method
> for both radio and TV?"

I'm not sure if that will ever happen completely, or even at all.

Has anyone else here read "Infinite Jest"? One of the plot points in that novel deals with the rise of on-demand media and the failure of cable and broadcast entities to keep up. However, there were still free broadcasts or "spontaneous disseminations" as they're referred to in the book long after the on-demand model had become firmly entrenched, mostly news, ancient educational programs, and infomercials. I think something of that nature will exist after the broadcast model has been abandoned, if such a thing ever happens.

The pricing needs to be reasonable and compatible with what people are used to paying for cable/satellite. Otherwise, people would consume less media and see or hear fewer ads, and corporations don't want that.


>
> "How do I get people to pick MY podcast instead of the Clear
> Channel Corporate Programming Podcast?"
>

Have a flashy website. Find inexpensive ways to advertise. Rely on word of mouth.
 
Re: Begging the Question(s)

>"Will the cost of advertising go down as fewer viewers watch
> the programs in real time?"

What advertising?

> "Will the commercials be included in the downloads?"

No. The ides is to replace the advertisng model.

> "How long before somebody has a program that automatically
> strips out commercials during the download?"

That's why they have to dump the advertising model. Even now, the amount of advertising avoidance is stunning.

> "Will cable and satellite rates go down as more people drop
> cable for high-speed downloads of the programs they want to
> see?"

Probably.

> "How long before the whole broadcast model goes by the
> wayside as on-demand becomes the preferred delivery method
> for both radio and TV?"

That addresses the point of my post, that I believe it will all go bye-bye. How long it will take is anyone's guess.

> "How do I get people to pick MY podcast instead of the Clear
> Channel Corporate Programming Podcast?"

Have a better podcast and marketing plan. <P ID="signature">______________
"Radio on the Internet is yet another world-shrinking example of what communications analysts call 'death of distance.'" - Tim Jones

<a href="http://saltydog.5gigs.com">
The Salty Dog</a>
</P><P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by Salty Dog on 11/10/05 01:42 PM.</FONT></P>
 
Re: Begging the Question(s)

How about networks limiting advertising to two minutes per hour? And charging much more for those precious two minutes (or minute each) than they charge for the many spots now?

If a show was only interrupted once every thirty minutes for a single sixty second spot, the interruption may be overlooked by viewers.



> > > "Will the commercials be included in the downloads?"
> >
> > NBC's from Directv and ABC's from iTunes are I believe. I
>
> > have not heard about CBS'.
> >
> > -A
> >
> It was my understanding that ABC would be taking the
> commercials out of its shows.
>
> As far as SirRoxalot's questions,
> 1) One would think so. Assuming of course that Nielson
> confrims this.
> 2) See above
> 3) Not applicable
> 4) I would think they would increase. Less quantity usually
> means higher prices.
> 5) Never...the networks would die first.
> 6) Good luck.
>
<P ID="signature">______________
[email protected]</P>
 
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