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Jack Doubters: Beware

KLOS shows an increase equal to the dip at KRTH.
KIIS isnt hurting.

Looks like Jack is taking money out of one Infinity pocket (KROQ) and putting it into another Infinity pocket.

Indie is also shaving a bit more from KROQ. Especially in middays.

If KROQ is not abnormally low then who is Jack taking this big phase 2 chunk from?






> > Wow,
> >
> > Does that mean Jack is giving KROQ a beating?
>
> KROQ may or may not be off; in May alone (extrap) Jack is #2
> overall in LA 25-54. KROQ is at the low end of its range,
> about where it was in the discreet months of August and
> December of last year.
> <P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by StLouisSam on 06/22/05 03:55 AM.</FONT></P>
 
> KLOS shows an increase equal to the dip at KRTH.

There is no correlation

> KIIS isnt hurting.

KIIS is hurting from Latino... it just has not sown up in Arbitron. I'll bet Latino takes a full share off KIIS.
>
> Looks like Jack is taking money out of one Infinity pocket
> (KROQ) and putting it into another Infinity pocket.

Nope. No sign of erosion from the normal wobble range on KROQ. Sorry to disappoint you.
>
> Indie is also shaving a bit more from KROQ. Especially in
> middays.

Also untrue. Extraps show Indie down in May, mid days as well.

> If KROQ is not abnormally low then who is Jack taking this
> big phase 2 chunk from?

It is a coalition station, taking from all over. I never listened to any English radio, yet have a button on Jack. Star is one. KOST. KRTH a bit, etc., etc.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > > Wow,
> > >
> > > Does that mean Jack is giving KROQ a beating?
> >
> > KROQ may or may not be off; in May alone (extrap) Jack is
> #2
> > overall in LA 25-54. KROQ is at the low end of its range,
> > about where it was in the discreet months of August and
> > December of last year.
> >
>
 
not very nice

I would if it wasn't such an old, tired and over-done radio hack attempt at humor

>
> Q: What do you call 100 "RADIO CONSULTANTS" at the bottom of
> the ocean?
>
> A: A good start!
>
> It's humor...laugh a little!
>
 
Infinity's bottom line

all of that is factored in by most start-ups and format flip situations.
These are not meant to be instant(overnight) ratingS nor financial home runs.

> Jack's initial success if offset by the flagship KROQ taking
> it on the kisser. So are they really celebrating at Infinity
> or scratching collective heads wondering how they ended up
> screwing themselves.
>
> On a side note. Did Indie have another fluke month?
 
Re: very nice

> > > I think it's hysterical how some of you who are racing
> to
> > > this thread to praise JACK FM's latest trend (and warn
> us
> > > all to "Beware" of JACK FM) are the SAME people who
> > WEREN'T
> > > predicting its success after the format flip in March!
> HA!
> >
> > > Too funny!!! You people should become consultants. Oh
> > wait,
> > > some of you already ARE! lol
> >
> > I will say the same thing I have said since the flip.
> >
> > There is no way to tell what the true viability of this
> will
> > be until after the first two or three books. I did say at
>
> > least once that I expected there to be some kind of upward
>
> > spike due to listener sampling; that happens to any
> station
> > that has a format change and markets heavily, which
> Infinity
> > has done. I'm glad to be proven right on that.
> >
> > However, if Infinity thinks this is a format that will
> > maintain these numbers without tweaking, they better
> > rethink. The Jack format will maintain numbers only as
> long
> > as the freshness of the "oh wow" songs in maintained by
> > cycling titles in and out of rotation.
> >
> > And yes, I am a consultant. But I don't play one on TV.
> >
>
> I guess you weren't at the party at Jack today. Well,
> neither was I but this didn't make some folks in Burbank too
> happy.
>
> They want instant success. They don't care about anything
> else anymore.
>
> Since they're going to add jocks, it won't be just about the
> music later this summer.
>
> K-Earth isn't looking good. The only question is who is
> helping it sink faster, Hollywood Hamilton, poor selection
> of music or Jack. I vote for all 3.
>

At least KRTH rebounded from a horrible April. Again, they've been in the format for way too long to start the death watch. Cume still ranks sixth in the market - and their 25-54 cume is ninth (although not where it used to be) - better than KTWV, KHHT, and KFI - and I hear no death warnings for them.
 
and, the point is???

WOW. Bold. Bravado. Stick your neck out! Make a prediction of the future!!!

All very noble but hollow. It doesn't really matter what we predict. What actually happens is all that matters and NOBODY can predict the future.

>
> Let's get a little more bold here. Anyone can say "Jack
> might be a success, or it might not. Only time will tell."
> It's more fun to predict beforehand. Yes, nobody knows for
> sure - that is the whole point. So what does everyone
> think? I say Jack is a success for a good long time.
>
 
no KRTH death watch is correct

especially with JACK moving in down the hall.

But they really should play more than 225 songs. Ugh. There are some titles they repeat 4 times per day.

>
> At least KRTH rebounded from a horrible April. Again,
> they've been in the format for way too long to start the
> death watch. Cume still ranks sixth in the market - and
> their 25-54 cume is ninth (although not where it used to be)
> - better than KTWV, KHHT, and KFI - and I hear no death
> warnings for them.
>
 
Re: But it does nothing for Infinity's bottom line

> Jack's initial success if offset by the flagship KROQ taking
> it on the kisser. So are they really celebrating at Infinity
> or scratching collective heads wondering how they ended up
> screwing themselves.

I wouldn't say KROQ "took it on the kisser". But I would think we'll see a "refining" of the KCBS library to lessen the duplication.

> On a side note. Did Indie have another fluke month?

You keep using that term as if Indie's numbers were moving in and out of the margin of error. They aren't.
<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
STOP. GRASPING. AT. STRAWS. SAM.

> > Indie is also shaving a bit more from KROQ. Especially in
> > middays.
>
> Also untrue. Extraps show Indie down in May, mid days as
> well.

No more of this, Sam. You've grasped your last straw.

The next time you post an uninformed "Indie is doing better" message, it will be deleted.

If you continue in the same uninformed mode, YOU will be deleted.
<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: But it does nothing for Infinity's bottom line

The last 4 books, and last 2 trends, the numbers continue to rise. That is a pattern.






> You keep using that term as if Indie's numbers were moving
> in and out of the margin of error. They aren't.
>
 
Re: STOP. GRASPING. AT. STRAWS. SAM.

Mr. censorship,

Im seeing numbers that go in a continual upward pattern for KDLD. Perhaps I'm not a ratings expert but when I see numbers go up, I see that as good and when numbers go down I see that as bad.

I'm basing my comment on the series of rating books and trends published in R & R and on info I was shown for the day parts in this trend. Up is up and down is down.

The numbers I see go up for Indie and down for KROQ, unless you have a different version of R & R.
If I could post the numbers I would but since I can't then I will try to believe that love is hate, war is peace and death is life.

If you want to expell me from this board because I don't have access to extrap numbers, or don't know that whenever Indie goes up it's because of a wobble, and when KROQ goes down it's becasue of a wobble, Then you can have a dandy old time with your corner of imaginary power. You will have shown your utter intolerance for anybody who doesn't see things the way you do.




> > > Indie is also shaving a bit more from KROQ. Especially
> in
> > > middays.
> >
> > Also untrue. Extraps show Indie down in May, mid days as
> > well.
>
> No more of this, Sam. You've grasped your last straw.
>
> The next time you post an uninformed "Indie is doing better"
> message, it will be deleted.
>
> If you continue in the same uninformed mode, YOU will be
> deleted.
>
 
Re: STOP. GRASPING. AT. STRAWS. SAM.

> Mr. censorship,
>
> Im seeing numbers that go in a continual upward pattern for
> KDLD. Perhaps I'm not a ratings expert but when I see
> numbers go up, I see that as good and when numbers go down I
> see that as bad.

They went down in May. They had a spike in April. It was probably sample wobble. End of story.
>
> The numbers I see go up for Indie and down for KROQ, unless
> you have a different version of R & R.

KROQ wobbles. All stations wobble. It works out ont he average. KROQ shows nothing so far to indicate iether Indie or Jack have affected it. In fact, when Indie went up in April, so did KROQ. No correlation at all.

> If I could post the numbers I would but since I can't then I
> will try to believe that love is hate, war is peace and
> death is life.

I have them, I have extraps. There is no Indie story, there is no KROQ story. End of story.
 
Re: very nice

>
> At least KRTH rebounded from a horrible April. Again,
> they've been in the format for way too long to start the
> death watch. Cume still ranks sixth in the market - and
> their 25-54 cume is ninth (although not where it used to be)
> - better than KTWV, KHHT, and KFI - and I hear no death
> warnings for them.

True, all of it. But agencies don't buy cume. And they don't buy the #14 12+ station and the #17 25/54 station.
>
 
Re: But it does nothing for Infinity's bottom line

> The last 4 books, and last 2 trends, the numbers continue to
> rise. That is a pattern.

The only unusually high numbers are in the last two trends, and May was lower than April. The Fall and Winter books are right in the normal range for this miserable facility.
 
Re: very nice

> >
> > At least KRTH rebounded from a horrible April. Again,
> > they've been in the format for way too long to start the
> > death watch. Cume still ranks sixth in the market - and
> > their 25-54 cume is ninth (although not where it used to
> be)
> > - better than KTWV, KHHT, and KFI - and I hear no death
> > warnings for them.
>
> True, all of it. But agencies don't buy cume. And they don't
> buy the #14 12+ station and the #17 25/54 station.
> >
>
No, my point was, they need to grow their TSL. As with any gold-based station - they need to move the TSL up. The 300-song playlist, which a lot of people complain about has to be an issue. They need to get them to listen longer. Can they expand - without losing cume. That is the trick....
 
Re: STOP. GRASPING. AT. STRAWS. SAM.

> > Mr. censorship,
> >
> > Im seeing numbers that go in a continual upward pattern
> for
> > KDLD. Perhaps I'm not a ratings expert but when I see
> > numbers go up, I see that as good and when numbers go down
> I
> > see that as bad.
>
> They went down in May. They had a spike in April. It was
> probably sample wobble. End of story.
> >
> > The numbers I see go up for Indie and down for KROQ,
> unless
> > you have a different version of R & R.
>
> KROQ wobbles. All stations wobble. It works out ont he
> average. KROQ shows nothing so far to indicate iether Indie
> or Jack have affected it. In fact, when Indie went up in
> April, so did KROQ. No correlation at all.
>
> > If I could post the numbers I would but since I can't then
> I
> > will try to believe that love is hate, war is peace and
> > death is life.
>
> I have them, I have extraps. There is no Indie story, there
> is no KROQ story. End of story.
>
As far as "Jack" goes - lets see how it goes after two books and see who they share with. Looks like a little bit here and there. "Indie" will do what it does. A 0.8-1.2 share is about what it will deliver. No reason why they can't convert that to decent billing with good demos.
 
grasping at straws

A lot of us don't get this fascination with this "Indie" station (or, for that
matter, Nine FM in Chicago). They're like that foreign movie that's always up for the Oscars-- the critics love them but there are never more than 3 people in the theatre.

(We have that same "grasping @ straws" deal with Yeziknowradio on the Variety Hits board, too, on stations using "we take your requests" phrasing on Jack- and it's quite frustrating).
 
Re: STOP. GRASPING. AT. STRAWS. SAM.

> >
> As far as "Jack" goes - lets see how it goes after two books
> and see who they share with. Looks like a little bit here
> and there. "Indie" will do what it does. A 0.8-1.2 share is
> about what it will deliver. No reason why they can't convert
> that to decent billing with good demos.
>

Indie will get little agecny business, as the numbers are too low. No one buys 28 deep...

So, the issue is that they will take mostly local direct business, which is lower rate. They could bill around $4 million at that level of ratings. Even iff they convert 40% to BCF, that is a horrible return ona $70 million investment.

The stations were bought to try to push Superestrella 97.5 up into the 2-s where they could get out of the 1-share low billing doldrums. It didn't work, and it does not work now.

Will Entravision be happy with about a $1 million to $1.6 million profit on the investment? Not likely. You could get more money on a bank savings account.
 
Re: STOP. GRASPING. AT. STRAWS. SAM.

> > >
> > As far as "Jack" goes - lets see how it goes after two
> books
> > and see who they share with. Looks like a little bit here
> > and there. "Indie" will do what it does. A 0.8-1.2 share
> is
> > about what it will deliver. No reason why they can't
> convert
> > that to decent billing with good demos.
> >
>
> Indie will get little agecny business, as the numbers are
> too low. No one buys 28 deep...
>
> So, the issue is that they will take mostly local direct
> business, which is lower rate. They could bill around $4
> million at that level of ratings. Even iff they convert 40%
> to BCF, that is a horrible return ona $70 million
> investment.
>
> The stations were bought to try to push Superestrella 97.5
> up into the 2-s where they could get out of the 1-share low
> billing doldrums. It didn't work, and it does not work now.
>
>
> Will Entravision be happy with about a $1 million to $1.6
> million profit on the investment? Not likely. You could get
> more money on a bank savings account.
>

My guess is they think with a 1.0 share - they can do $10-$12 million in revenue (not unrealistic with a good sales staff). Format will power ratio well - even as low as it is.

But, no $1.6 million in profit will not do it.

BTW, speaking of revenue, what is the No. 1 Spanish station expected to do in 2005? Will KLVE or KSCA do $40 million?
 
Re: STOP. GRASPING. AT. STRAWS. SAM.

> >
>
> My guess is they think with a 1.0 share - they can do
> $10-$12 million in revenue (not unrealistic with a good
> sales staff). Format will power ratio well - even as low as
> it is.

The big stations take a disproportionate share of the "good" billing. This is why the preponderance of higher power ratios is in the top tier of stations. KMZT can barely scrape $7 million with a quality image and exclusive format and higher numbers than Indie will probably ever get.

I think a limited coverage station with low ratings is pretty much capped at $4 to $5 million billing.
>
> But, no $1.6 million in profit will not do it.
>
> BTW, speaking of revenue, what is the No. 1 Spanish station
> expected to do in 2005? Will KLVE or KSCA do $40 million?

Low to mid 30's. The current top 5 status of KLVE and KSCA will not impact billings until late in the year, but it is nice to be back at the top with two stations. In fact, the top 4 25/54 stations in LA are Spanish in the last trend.
>
 
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