> In the LA trend, issued today, in 25-54, the Jack station,
> KCBS-FM, which has been on the air for 90 days, has jumped
> to #6 in the market... and is #2 English language station in
> that demo.
>
> In the month of May, Jack was #2 in the total market 25-54.
Don't expect that to be indicative of what Jack will do in NYC. For starters, it got off to a horrbile start and became a focus of public controversy, attack and scorn for killing a beloved and still-successful station, something it did NOT do in LA where it replaced a not-too-different earlier iteration of expanded playlist adult hits, the "Arrow" format. And it faces a lot more competition for 25-54 English language music listeners in NYC and suburbs than KCBS-FM did in LA, making its upside potential a lot more limited.
Beyond that, the format has inherent weaknesses uncovered in an Arbitron/Edison study of Jack stations and clones, which will be especially pronounced in a market as competitive for adult music listeners as New York.
Jack gets a lot of initial sampling when it goes on the air. But the Arbitron/Edison study of the format pointed up two real dangers for Jack stations and their cousins/clones in the large-library adult hits realm.
First, TSL for jockless Jack stations is extremely low compared with other music formats, posing a danger to both AQH and eventually to cume down the road. People don't stay with it long if they don't like the overall mix of songs (which on a poorly executed Jack station can sound like jarring train wreck after train wreck). And as a result, Jack stations that stay jockless for any length of time fall after a quick initial spike, usually to a level lower than their format predecessors. And if the music mix is especially awkward, as most New Yorkers expressing an opinion believe it is on 101.1, that fall could be especially fast and hard, given all the alternatives catering to the same basic target demos Jack seeks.
Second, and the flip side of this, the Jack stations that hold initial audience the best after a year on the air are those that either start with a full airstaff of foreground personalities, or phase them in quickly during the first couple of months on the air. CBS-FM needed to do this right out of the box, because (as anyone who remembers the programming theories of Rick Sklar will know) it's the personality who adds value and gives you reason to keep listening through the daypart even if you may not like the song that's playing right now. Jack really needs that MORE than most formats, in order to boost TSL and maintain AQH and cume.
If they want this puppy to finish above about a 1.7 by this time next year (half of what WCBS-FM did in its last trends) then Jack has to get its full staff in place and reach out to make friends with listeners NOW. Otherwise the track record of Jack stations across the country, combined with the special obstacles the format faces in NYC, mean it may soon be time to start talking about the NEXT format for 101.1.
I don't necessarily think it's a fluke, but I do think the acid test will be a year from now. A lot of All 80's stations put together 4 good books. I've been a skeptic about "Jack" since I first read about it.