Jack-FM: The beginning of the end?

[Garrett]

Then the answer is is effectively no, since, if I'm reading this correctly, CBS wanted something that would both replace Oldies, and improve upon it. So far, (if I'm reading this correctly), the format they have (in this case, JACK) is peforming about the same, more or less, and not doing what they had wanted. Which means, CBS could either tweak JACK (if there is anything left to tweak) or shop around for another music format, which will probably not be Oldies.

So then are starting thinking..."Moving 101.1?" But then you are retreading on the old Mix 102.7 idea, and crossing KTU once again. So what else IS there for them to do BUT tweak JACK?

My guess is they keep JACK for now, since it's not exactly taking a dive, so things aren't desperate. Plenty of time to sit with it until something better comes along. Pretty sad postlogue to what was a legendary station (imo), but hey, it's business, right?

BTW: David, thanks for the input!

 

[UncleBozzle]

But what do they sit an wait for? You now have a relative success in "Fresh 102.7" and you have the reborn "K-Rock". I don't see "Movin" to be an option because it harkins back to "Mix 102.7". CBS is kind of in a tight spot with a "Jack" replacement. Go lighter 70's and 80's classic hits you risk hurting "Fresh", go 80's and early 90's rock you will hurt "K-Rock". It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know which direction CBS will choose. Look a bit south in Monmouth and Ocean and therein lies the answer. You had a strong AC at 107.1 The Breeze and a strong modern rocker with "G-106.3". With the creation of the 106.5 frequency it created a new station at 98.5. It was not going to hurt those two stations in any way and "K-98.5" was created. Yes folks, a bitter pill to swallow but oh so true. They have nowhere else to turn really. In the end they can horde a nice little return on the entire pie, not just crumbs.

 

[oaktree]

Wow! Intriguing thought on how to handle David's well-put "Catch 22." Go Country ... Hmmm. You know, I think David's theory is not far off.

First, CBS has extensive holdings in Country formats in large markets. I don't hear the "hue and cry" over great disasters with them, nor comparisons with the station's past "heritage" like in New York. Maybe the time, despite the failures of past Country incarnations, is now ... as we know that the increases in Jack, as David pointed out, are still no where near the expectations.

Now, maybe there is argument that "People miss what they don't have." We've seen that passionate take here regarding the long-standing oldies format. Would it be wise for CBS to bring back and upgrade what was, once, the "franchise" format?

If they pulled the plug then ... and, yet, brought back KFRC in San Francisco, could it be that CBS now figures that Hollander made more than a mistake in pulling the plug in the first place and didn't "work" the format as it should have been -- instead, letting it slide into oblivion... ?

Or ... is the truck running through the middle of the "Catch 22" mean, "OK, start all over ... we know we'd get "some" buys with the passion of the traditional "oldies" listener, but it's been proven, maybe not enough -- so, we could build on country like we did Jack and see no duplication and pretty much "own" the format in the mainstream ... so, give it a shot? But do it right."

Country 101.1 ... I dunno.

To me ... I'd probably look at the PPM numbers in Philly, the passion of those in SF and NYC that have long asked for "their" oldies stations back ... and feeling that we couldn't do any worse and maybe get the "trend" that the Philly PPM showed ... I'd be very very tempted to say "Get Classic Hits on 101.1 ... NOW." I'd probably put Jack on HD2 or put a promoted country on HD2...or HD3.

Then, if oldies should bomb, the "bullpen." so to speak, is still there with the brand CBS most wants waiting in the wings, somewhat developed to make it "in the big time."

Just some thoughts.

 

[chrisr]

Ya know...there is a totally forgotten decade of good music out there that no one seems to want to play. A whole generation that has been neglected and I just can't figure it out. I read on other threads here that 70's is the third biggest format on Sirius and the number two most listened to channel on XM.

Several years ago we put an ALL 70's (no late 60's and no early 80's) format on a dead frequency in this market and it shot straight up to 6th place (higher 25-54 but I can't remember numbers or rank) and was huge 18-34! The only reason it went away was the station was sold and the next OM and PD that came in was like every other radio programmer out there and didn't understand the music and adjusted it to classic rock. It still does well, but nowhere near what it did when it was 70's pop.

We've had all 60's stations, we've had all 80's stations in just about every market across America, but the 70's is a missed era. A WHOLE bunch of good music that hasn't been played on terrestrial radio in many many years......

Please go to mediabase and look up XM-70's. Some pretty fun stuff in there!

 

[oaktree]

I think that all-70s has been tried fulltime, but flopped. First ... too much "soft rock" that turned into vanilla blandness and second, too much of not one, but two "disco" waves in the early and late 70s. That scares a lot of programmers (and owners) off who feel the backlash of the past which, for those of us who lived it, was pretty extensive.

As a result, "Classic Rock" took hold and evolved just to stay clear of those two factors, while A/C radio and "Lite Rock" still plays more than a share of that genre.

I think there's a demo in there for that decade, but it being 18-34 seems a little tough to understand, as the young end of the demo doesn't relate to the music as they weren't around then and the upper end was just born when the "Saturday Nite Fever" craze just got underway.

If that's "discovering" something new and fresh ... and it's 29 to 37 years old ... we've got problems in that demo if that's the case. If '70s music is "the new oldies" ... you're still looking at 35-40+ core demos (on the young side,) no?

 

[BossJock1947]

Wow! Intriguing thought on how to handle David's well-put "Catch 22." Go Country ... Hmmm. You know, I think David's theory is not far off.

First, CBS has extensive holdings in Country formats in large markets. I don't hear the "hue and cry" over great disasters with them, nor comparisons with the station's past "heritage" like in New York. Maybe the time, despite the failures of past Country incarnations, is now ... as we know that the increases in Jack, as David pointed out, are still no where near the expectations.

Now, maybe there is argument that "People miss what they don't have." We've seen that passionate take here regarding the long-standing oldies format. Would it be wise for CBS to bring back and upgrade what was, once, the "franchise" format?

If they pulled the plug then ... and, yet, brought back KFRC in San Francisco, could it be that CBS now figures that Hollander made more than a mistake in pulling the plug in the first place and didn't "work" the format as it should have been -- instead, letting it slide into oblivion... ?

Or ... is the truck running through the middle of the "Catch 22" mean, "OK, start all over ... we know we'd get "some" buys with the passion of the traditional "oldies" listener, but it's been proven, maybe not enough -- so, we could build on country like we did Jack and see no duplication and pretty much "own" the format in the mainstream ... so, give it a shot? But do it right."

Country 101.1 ... I dunno.

To me ... I'd probably look at the PPM numbers in Philly, the passion of those in SF and NYC that have long asked for "their" oldies stations back ... and feeling that we couldn't do any worse and maybe get the "trend" that the Philly PPM showed ... I'd be very very tempted to say "Get Classic Hits on 101.1 ... NOW." I'd probably put Jack on HD2 or put a promoted country on HD2...or HD3.

Then, if oldies should bomb, the "bullpen." so to speak, is still there with the brand CBS most wants waiting in the wings, somewhat developed to make it "in the big time."

Just some thoughts.

With the success of The Wolf in SF and other markets look for COUNTRY 101.1 in NYC. Count on it.

 

[KevinFodor]

The so-called "Classic Top 40" approach with the right jocks might work. After all WCBS-FM was never a "traditional" oldies station in that it played music from the 50's to the 80's. The core audience target
(35-54) is fine for advertisers.

Country could possibly work as well. I know it's had problems in New York. But, a million people or so came to Central Park to see Garth Brooks a few years ago. I'm sure most of them didn't live in Manhattan, but they didn't all drive up from Tulsa, either.

Perhaps on the big stick at 101.1, you could reach enough real estate to find the audience that would make it work. Maybe not. But, the last country station in NY had anything but reliable full market coverage, as I understand it.

 

[lalumia]

actually, CBS FM's numbers began to go down during the period that someone advised them to start working 80s hits in there, thinking that such a move would make chronological sense, and thereby , business sense; it
doesn't; when the blend incorporated 50s pop and a little doo wop,60s and all that went with that golden era,and the cream of the crop of the "77WABC Music Radio" 70s hits, the station was cooking;
it was only when advisors had them replace Bill Haley with Wham!, and Connie Francis with Pat Benatar, that the ship began to sink...
the pure version would still be kicking butt right now, spare me all your charts and pie graphs, i'm sure that's how "Jack" was (still)born....

 

[davideduardo]

actually, CBS FM's numbers began to go down during the period that someone advised them to start working 80s hits in there, thinking that such a move would make chronological sense, and thereby , business sense;

The issue was "how to make the audience stop eroding in 25-54"

it
doesn't; when the blend incorporated 50s pop and a little doo wop,60s and all that went with that golden era,and the cream of the crop of the "77WABC Music Radio" 70s hits, the station was cooking;

Hardly. It was declining year by year in sales demos, and becoming heavily 55+ in composition. This is why the sales were slowly declining, too.

it was only when advisors had them replace Bill Haley with Wham!, and Connie Francis with Pat Benatar, that the ship began to sink...

Also untrue. Radio pays scant attention to the 12+ numbers one sees published. The station was slowly dying in 25-54, although the 12+ numbers seemed to be good. The problem was that the sales demos were declining and so were sales.

the pure version would still be kicking butt right now, spare me all your charts and pie graphs, i'm sure that's how "Jack" was (still)born....

The CBS-FM with do-wop and Bobby Darin and Fabian and Danny and the Juniors would be nearly 100% over-55 today. Even a 12-year-old when Sea Cruise came out would be over 60 today. There is no money in 55+, even if you own the demo (Example... 12+ #1 in Tampa is WDUV, which is over 95% over 55. They are #14 in billings.)

 

[lalumia]

but there are 12 year olds that prefer "Sea Cruise"etc. to other fare; witness the song choices on America's #1 TV show, "American Idol"; Diana Ross Night, 70s Bee Gees Night, British Invasion night;
the younger demo is no longer just about 'now' music; that, in itself, is a very '60's' concept, which has passed with the last century...

 

[davideduardo]

but there are 12 year olds that prefer "Sea Cruise"etc. to other fare; witness the song choices on America's #1 TV show, "American Idol"; Diana Ross Night, 70s Bee Gees Night, British Invasion night;
the younger demo is no longer just about 'now' music; that, in itself, is a very '60's' concept, which has passed with the last century...

Exceptions tend to prove the rules. The amount of listening to oldies stations by 12-34 is minimal.

One of the highest rated oldies stations in the US, KOOL-FM in Phoenix, has less than 4% of the audience below 25 years of age and less than 15% under 34. And when you examine who the under 35's are, most are listening because someone else controls the radio, not out of choice. There is zero opportunity there.

 

[adma]

the younger demo is no longer just about 'now' music; that, in itself, is a very '60's' concept, which has passed with the last century...

But in tandem to that, one might also claim that the younger demo is no longer just about *radio*. And *that*, in itself, is a very '60's' concept, which has passed with the last century.

Remember: today's standard of Sinatra fandom (esp. among the young) owes virtually nothing to the comparatively brain-dead way that so much MOR radio handled him and his like for ages. Likewise w/music from the oldies era, I reckon...

 

[oaktree]

So, we are to take, I guess, today's new numbers from Phoenix showing KOOL-FM #1 with a 5.4 and tied for second 25-54 with KNIX (according to David on that board) as, what, just a "fluke?"

CBS has to wonder ... if it (oldies) work in Phoenix and, with big increases in the Philly PPM, a switch much asked for in San Francisco ... why not NYC???

If David's usually astute study shows that only 15% of the KOOL-FM 25-54 is "under" 35 ... does that mean that agencies will just blow off the 81% of the audience between 35-54? I'd think not... (The other 4% comes from listeners 12-34 who listen to oldies.)

Realizing that Phoenix is an upper demo market ... I'd still be surprised if agencies ignored that buy, unless the word comes down that says, "But the rest of the market is 55+, so, there's little other share in the buyable demos."

Something goin' on here... I'm not sure the format is dead, yet.

 

[Jeffrey]

But what do they sit an wait for? You now have a relative success in "Fresh 102.7" and you have the reborn "K-Rock". I don't see "Movin" to be an option because it harkins back to "Mix 102.7". CBS is kind of in a tight spot with a "Jack" replacement. Go lighter 70's and 80's classic hits you risk hurting "Fresh", go 80's and early 90's rock you will hurt "K-Rock". It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know which direction CBS will choose. Look a bit south in Monmouth and Ocean and therein lies the answer. You had a strong AC at 107.1 The Breeze and a strong modern rocker with "G-106.3". With the creation of the 106.5 frequency it created a new station at 98.5. It was not going to hurt those two stations in any way and "K-98.5" was created. Yes folks, a bitter pill to swallow but oh so true. They have nowhere else to turn really. In the end they can horde a nice little return on the entire pie, not just crumbs.

but going forward if CBS is billing more than they would have if they'd stayed oldies since it was in decline wouldn't that constitute staying the course with JACK and perhaps just doing some tweaking? No other missing format in this market is without a huge risk if they flip.
If however they were to give up on JACK, another Z100 competitor might do what Fresh 102.7 is doing and perhaps take some numbers from Z although on another note it doesn't appear Fresh is taking any away from LITE even though Fresh is trending upward but let's save that discussion for another post.

 

[davideduardo]

So, we are to take, I guess, today's new numbers from Phoenix showing KOOL-FM #1 with a 5.4 and tied for second 25-54 with KNIX (according to David on that board) as, what, just a "fluke?"

KOOL has always been a top 5 player, and part has to do with a morning show that outperforms, both in numbers and in demos.

If David's usually astute study shows that only 15% of the KOOL-FM 25-54 is "under" 35 ... does that mean that agencies will just blow off the 81% of the audience between 35-54? I'd think not... (The other 4% comes from listeners 12-34 who listen to oldies.)

Actually, nearly all the audience is 45+, except mornings that skews a bit younger. Only 30% is under 45, and nearly 50% is over 55.

Realizing that Phoenix is an upper demo market ... I'd still be surprised if agencies ignored that buy, unless the word comes down that says, "But the rest of the market is 55+, so, there's little other share in the buyable demos."

Actually, the average age in PHX is 45, while in NY it is 46. Chicago is 44. Only the markets with higer percentages of immigrants tend to be much below that range, with even LA having an average of 41. In any case, the over 55 listeners are not bought, so it comes down to how well the station does in 25-54.

KOOL does well, tied for 2nd, because the market is very fragmented. On the other hand, stations like KHOT and KMLE and KNIX have a much more balanced demo appeal, with good coverage of all cells of 25-54.

Something goin' on here... I'm not sure the format is dead, yet.

It is not dead, but the obvious is going to classic hits from oldies. That is where the better demos lie, and more revenue, too.

 

[davideduardo]

But in tandem to that, one might also claim that the younger demo is no longer just about *radio*. And *that*, in itself, is a very '60's' concept, which has passed with the last century.

Yet if you look at the PPM data for Houston (test report is or was available online) you see that the number one position filps between a couple of stations, one of them being 18-34 driven KTBZ, an alternative station. 18-34 has hardly abandoned radio.

 

[LinoNYC]

one of them being 18-34 driven KTBZ, an alternative station. 18-34 has hardly abandoned radio.

"Alternative" as a format has been in New York for atleast 18 years (first on WLIR) so it's likely that, just as in oldies, that demo skews toward it's upper end.

I attended a closing party at a restaurant location of mine last sunday. In the number there were 9-10 'teens, I noticed that they played alot of songs by artists such as Jefferson Airplane (White Rabbit) Doors, Stones, Sinatra. They knew the lyrics too. This is something I see daily at my locations and I cater to this crowd.

We got to talking and I asked in an unbiased manner, what they thought about old vs. new music. They all liked both, and a few thought that the older songs were "better" . I asked , as I have for about 9 years now in in these situations, what radio stations do you like? I got very non-committal answers of Z-100, WPLJ that was 'it". Mostly they listened to Ipods and got music from both the internet and TV. They complained that stations are too limited and play the same stuff over and over. It reminded me of the same complaints I had as a kid in the sixties. We didn't have much choice, these kids do.

When I first asked these questions in 1998, I got very passionate answers from 'teens about radio. Not anymore. They may not have "abandoned" radio, but they are not listening nearly as much as back then.

I know that you have often claimed that the ad industry doesn't "buy" teens but I ask a question:if they are not listening at twelve, will they at twenty?:

I recently saw an Arbitron chart that showed a gradual decade long erosion of both cume and tsl in the youngest demo's, if that trend continues we'll have an answer in just a few years.

Lino

 

[lalumia]

no, they won't be listening at twenty, or thirty, as most teens get into the radio habit in the first place via top 40, and top 40 has throughly researched it's way into an unlistenable corner, the buzz is gone;even Z100 in NY, of which I'm a fan, is not doing the 'reflection' job they're supposed to do
they're not playing "Rehab" by amy Winehouse, even though it's the buzz track of the moment, top ten cd, she was featured this week on MTV's Movie Awards'
they missed the boat entirely on "Dreamgirls" by playing nothing from that when it was #1 CD and ALL that people were talking about;
Christina Aguliera's "CandyMan" was dropped minutes after it was added, in spite of being top ten download, top ten AOL video chart, and a much needed burst of fresh air at CHR;
the station is good, but not great, and it's winning by default, as it's the only Top 40 in NY, unlike when the old WABC took on WINS,WMCA,WWDJ,XLO(99X), etc.
Research and pie charts have ensured the continuous downward spiral of radio, especially in the hit areas, and especially in the face of new technology,, radio should get just a bit more aggressive, but instead, becomes more hemmaroidal...

 

[Barry45RPM]

Todays program Directors no longer have the innate talent for Programming or directing the content of the station that employs them. They turn to researcher who are reccomending the same thing to every client, and radio is turning into a scientifically blended formula that all stations in a market buy.

A programmer should have in his belly, and idea, a concept, in which he wants his station to go, and have the talent to bring it to the airwaves so that the public he wants to reach will be drawn to it because it is a work of art. Radio is an art, not a researched formula. If the Format of a Program Director fails to meat reasonable goals, he should be gone, not kept on to tweak his art form with outside advice, or manage the next researched Format the station wants to try.

Programmers with talent seem to be scoffed at because they do what "feels right for the art form" rather than what research tells them to do.

As far as 101.1 is concerned, Jack isn't working. You can tweak it all you want... CBS is going to stick with it untill they either sell the station or simply can't take it anymore, rather than make the admission that they mad a mistake with this format. If they ran the Oldies format like they are running Jack, with minimal expensive "Legacy Jocks", they'd be very successfull with an Oldies format Playing 1958 thru todays music, just like the CBS-FM of old did.

 

[MajorArmstrong]

Barry, I think your information on NYC ratings are as behind the times as the music delivery device in your name.

JACK is doing well in 25-54 adults, better than the previous format. 5 up books in a row. Overnight success? No. But look at the crater CBS left two years ago. It took a while to fill that in. A generation or two of listeners had never heard anything but Oldies on 101.1...and getting them to discover and cume that station after the switch took some doing.

If you figure out, by listening to folks close to the station, that the original PD and his interpretation of the JACK format was misguided, you know that the first year or so was a waste. Brian Thomas, the PD for NY, seems to have made JACK-FM a much nicer place for listeners to visit and the numbers show that they are coming through the door.

Don't make the common mistake of trying to use the 12+ numbers to figure out how ANY station does. There is a reason ARB allows anyone to see them.