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Jack Will Do Some Damage, But...

WBUF has been doing their best to be a stone in 97 Rock’s shoe for years, but with the exception of Howard Stern, WBUF hasn’t had much success. Stern racks up some impressive ratings, but 97 Rock has won the morning battle more often than not, thanks to aggressive ongoing promotion, a well-known morning name and a guy who’s really funny. With its well-positioned Classic Rock and local personalities, 97 Rock is strong throughout the day.

The same success story can be written for WYRK, WTSS, WJYE and WHTT: Well-researched music presented by live, local air personalities. But let's be objective here. Jack is on the air and it’s going to attract listeners and advertisers. The question is, where do these listeners come from. What station stands the most to lose and what stations will weather the storm?

It’s fair to say that good as they are, the jocks that work at competing stations should be concerned. They should be playing at the top of their games not only because it's the Spring book, one of the most important books of the year, but because they’re competing with a hard-drive connected to a 90kW transmitter.

When The Lake debuted, this board was full of interesting, opinionated and occasionally funny posts predicting 107.7's fate. Many said it would take 97 Rock down a few shares. But with three books to look back on, The Lake really hasn’t taken a serious number of listeners away from 97 Rock. In this regard, the pre-game hype of WLKK management may have been correct when they said they were more interested in bringing “disenfranchised listeners” back to radio.

Jack, on the other hand, clearly has a different objective. The Jack format is clearly designed to “steal” listeners from the dominant stations in their respective markets. There’s only about three years to go on, but the “book” on the Jack format is that it attracts listeners from AC, Classic Rock, Active Rock and CHR stations.

Yet, it's not as if Buffalo stations have been caught napping.

Just as 97 Rock pre-empted a frontal attack by The Lake, WHTT seems to have ramped up its defenses by “jacking” with its music and positioning, doing the “104 On Shuffle Weekend,” “104 On Shuffle” at Night and now at noon.
Star has always been a well-imaged and well-promoted Hot AC station, playing well to young women. It seems to have the most to lose, yet it too seems have solidly built up its defenses to thwart a frontal assault by Jack.

Kiss is rebounding under the guidance of a new PD and a re-shaped direction. Curiously, Kiss’ former PD is consulting CKEY these days. Say what we will about the man’s lack of discretion and hubris, he can’t help but improve Wild 101, though it remains to be seen just how much any improvement might translate into substantial ratings increases.

Here’s the Wild Card. (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)

Jack debuts just as Wild and Kiss reposition and refine their approaches. In a sense, there’s a chemical reaction taking place in the Buffalo market and Jack appears to be a powerful catalyst.

Considering all the elements of the equation, what will the resulting amalgamation sound like and what station will be most affected by Jack’s presence in the mix?

Whatever happens, I’m betting that it’s not going to be the music that attracts listeners to Jack as much as the oppressively long commercial breaks that air on competing stations. Seven, eight and nine minute commercial breaks on the established market leaders almost beg listeners to try out the new radio station down the dial.

Yet, the fly in the ointment of Jack’s success may be Howard Stern. At-work-listening comprises a considerable amount of any FM music station’s TSL: At least twenty precious hours a day, 100 priceless hours per week are up for grabs in the 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. daypart alone. Some experts say even more quarter hours can be attributed to workday listening, considering the times radios at work places are turned on and tuned to by the radio gate-keepers and office consensus.

Picture this. How many offices, businesses and shops are going to turn on Jack when they’re searching for a music station at work, and the find Howard talking to lesbian midgets?

Talented and entertaining as Stern is and sizeable as his ratings are, he’s the antithesis of what Jack is all about, especially after 9 AM when Joan and John Doe are looking for music in their workplaces.

Jack may show some strong numbers in its first few books, but other stations should thank their lucky stars every day that Stern is still on mornings, because his presence is going to put a damper on Jack’s success as a music station sought by at-work listeners.
 
> WBUF has been doing their best to be a stone in 97 Rock’s
> shoe for years, but with the exception of Howard Stern, WBUF
> hasn’t had much success. Stern racks up some impressive
> ratings, but 97 Rock has won the morning battle more often
> than not, thanks to aggressive ongoing promotion, a
> well-known morning name and a guy who’s really funny. With
> its well-positioned Classic Rock and local personalities, 97
> Rock is strong throughout the day.
>
> The same success story can be written for WYRK, WTSS, WJYE
> and WHTT: Well-researched music presented by live, local air
> personalities. But let's be objective here. Jack is on the
> air and it’s going to attract listeners and advertisers.

Prediction...not all that many listeners OR advertisers will be attracted to Jack, especially if it stays jockless and has no really strong morning show in place at the end of the year to confront Larry Norton. They were in the 2s with each of their last few previous formats, and they'll stay there with Jack unless they put a lot more money into providing a LOT more value added (entertaining personalities, plus a little information content in morning and afternoon drive).

We're not going to see here in Western NY the outright angry rejection of Jack that we're seeing now among NYC radio listeners (where the killing of WCBS-FM provoked a reaction that included an outburst of anger from Senator Charles Schumer and even openly stunned Les Moonves). We'll probably see just quiet neglect instead. But that reaction in New York is reverberating in the Infinity boardroom and may well be causing the brass to re-evaluate Jack's potential everywhere right now; it certainly should. If you look at it objectively, Jack's really been oversold, another programmers' fad that could well go the way of Arrow, Alice and Jammin' Oldies (to name three other flavors of the month that sought the 25-49 demo during the 90s, and after initial hype, failed).
 
>
> Picture this. How many offices, businesses and shops are
> going to turn on Jack when they’re searching for a music
> station at work, and the find Howard talking to lesbian
> midgets?
>
> Talented and entertaining as Stern is and sizeable as his
> ratings are, he’s the antithesis of what Jack is all about,
> especially after 9 AM when Joan and John Doe are looking for
> music in their workplaces.
>

Interesting take, E9. Makes sense.
 
>
> We're not going to see here in Western NY the outright angry
> rejection of Jack that we're seeing now among NYC radio
> listeners (where the killing of WCBS-FM provoked a reaction
> that included an outburst of anger from Senator Charles
> Schumer and even openly stunned Les Moonves). We'll probably
> see just quiet neglect instead. But that reaction in New
> York is reverberating in the Infinity boardroom and may well
> be causing the brass to re-evaluate Jack's potential
> everywhere right now; it certainly should.

Infinity is certainly not infailable. Just look at the past performance of WBUF. And why didn't they put Jack on WNEW? WNEW has been a total disaster for the last 4 or 5 years. Jack may have fitted better on WNEW because of their legendary rock & roll radio status. From what I can tell WCBS-FM was doing just fine. Hey, being #8 12+ in N. Y. C. ain't bad at all. Maybe they could have used some tweaking. The compaints I had heard about CBS-FM was that they had become too inpersonal to there listeners. Sounding too automated.
 
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