Jackson Arbitron market post-Katrina

[ticoSD]

There's a little discussion on the Louisiana board about how the New Orleans radio market will be affected by the number of people who decide to return and not return and I thought it would be worthy for discussion for the Jackson area. It's a safe bet to believe that a number of New Orleans-area and MS Gulf Coast residents who fled to Jackson to escape Katrina will settle into the Jackson area permenantly. I saw a figure that suggested that once the dust has settled, there will be a permanent metro area population of 700-900K. If you go by those numbers, that will put us well into the top 100 in the Arbitron rankings, even when you shave off the under-12 population Arbitron doesn't count. It'll be a while (perhaps a few years) until we know for sure how many people are living in the area permenantly, but will there be enough of an increase to put us in the top 100?

A couple of other aspects to look at, too, are advertising rates and formats. In advertising, the higher the market ranking, the higher the rates increase. Have ad rates have increased here? Finally, will the influx of new residents change the face of radio stations here, as far as formats and market ratings are concerned?

A lot of this and other information will be hard to determine until hard data comes out. Again, it may be a while before we see it on paper. And to DeadElvis, if you're reading this, darn good analysis you made on the Louisiana board about New Orleans, regardless of how your theories play out. Would you be so kind as to offer your smarts here? <P ID="signature">______________
"...and the countdown continues until the neanderthals that govern college football do something about their pathetic postseason."--Tim Brando, Sporting News Radio</P>

 

[Casual_Observer]

> there will be a permanent metro area population of 700-900K.

700k to 900k? Wow, that would be great! Where did you find this information?

--- Casual Observer

 

[DeadElvis]

First, thanks for your kind words. Of course, my conjecture about the New Orleans area is just that – conjecture. I could be – and probably am – way off. Sadly, I am not sure any of this stuff is really knowable. Nothing analogous like this has ever happened, save for the 1900 Hurricane in Galveston. That tragedy made Houston what it is today. But, that was over a hundred years ago. (BTW: I have been reading Issac’s Storm by Eric Larson, a fascinating read on the subject. Check it out)

As with the New Orleans question, there are variables that must be guessed at. And, we cannot even be sure what all the variables are. But, we can always take a wild stab at it.

We talked in the Louisiana discussion about economic demographics, and I think that the discussion is important here, too. Demographically, New Orleans and Jackson are similar. They are both highly-ethnic, and not particularly affluent. Jackson (the City) is slightly blacker than New Orleans, but a bit fewer are living below the poverty line.

OK, why is this important? People tend to feel comfortable in familiar surroundings. Certainly, for those relocating from the New Orleans area, the sameness may give a comforting, familiar feeling. And, let us not forget the misplaced on the Coast. Some may feel more comfortable in Jackson, simply because it is the state in which they have been living. But, this tilts both ways. The big question is infrastructure. Does the Jackson area have the wherewithal to accommodate a significant increase in population? Maybe not. According to the Mississippi Business Journal, the state’s unemployment rate rose to 7% in August, before the storm struck. One can only assume that if the evacuees will stay, they will need to find work. If structural unemployment is high, one can only imagine the problems faced by huge numbers of new job-seekers, displaced from another area. Unfortunately, I don’t think we can put numbers on that.

There is also the Coast’s economy to consider. While I think we all agree that New Orleans will most likely never return to its “former glory” (President Bush’s term), the Coast will. There is simply too much money to be made in the Gaming Industry, so casino workers will return as soon as their well-paying jobs restart. In fact, some have opined that this tragedy will allow Biloxi to start fresh, and make itself better. While that’s best left for another discussion, it does imply that many Coast residents will return home.

Housing is also a big, big issue. While I have read little about the Jackson market post-Katrina, I have read a bit about Baton Rouge. There, housing is simply gone. What inventory did exist before the storm was swept up in a buying feeding frenzy, as sellers dumped long-sitting houses at premium prices. If inventory is low in Jackson, the same will happen. And, let’s remember, most of the evacuees will be looking for lower-end houses; the new stuff being built in Madison really doesn’t help them. And, we should not expect new housing to pop up quickly enough to satisfy demand; construction resources are going to be centered on points south of J-town.

Schools are an issue, to a lesser extent. The districts must accept the students. But, things will be inconvenient for a time, adding stress to the mix. Certainly, Jackson hasn’t got the higher educational opportunities necessary for the job. New Orleans is/was a big college town (I hold a degree from one of its institutions); Jackson just isn’t.

We also must consider how many new people are actually in the Jackson metro. Again, no one really knows yet. Counting noses simply doesn’t get you there. I have seen numbers for Jackson as high as 500,000 new faces. I have trouble swallowing that, especially when one considers other cities. Houston, it is said, has over a quarter million. Baton Rouge claims another 500,000. Mobile? A hundred k or so. Memphis may have 50,000. Other cities like Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, Birmingham, etc., all have been said to have numbers in 5 figures. Those numbers just don’t add up. So, who knows how many are actually there?

I am of the opinion that Jackson really can’t support many more that 100,000 or so, long term. If that’s the case, the market ends up pretty close to where I put New Orleans… somewhere in the 80s.

Again, I could be way off. This isn’t my area of expertise.

DE

 

[ticoSD]

> > there will be a permanent metro area population of
> 700-900K.
>
> 700k to 900k? Wow, that would be great! Where did you find
> this information?
>
> --- Casual Observer
>

I saw someone mention it on another message board. Personally, I find that hard to believe. If it were to be that many, there would be a heck of a lot more traffic in this town and I haven't seen that yet, except going down Lakeland Drive in the mornings. But if there is a noticeable increase in the number of evacuees who decide to settle here permenantly, it will be interesting to see which radio stations do or don't reap the benefits. <P ID="signature">______________
"...and the countdown continues until the neanderthals that govern college football do something about their pathetic postseason."--Tim Brando, Sporting News Radio</P>

 

[RFLA]

> > > there will be a permanent metro area population of
> > 700-900K.
> >
> > 700k to 900k? Wow, that would be great! Where did you
> find
> > this information?
> >
> > --- Casual Observer
> >
>
> I saw someone mention it on another message board.
> Personally, I find that hard to believe. If it were to be
> that many, there would be a heck of a lot more traffic in
> this town and I haven't seen that yet, except going down
> Lakeland Drive in the mornings. But if there is a noticeable
> increase in the number of evacuees who decide to settle here
> permenantly, it will be interesting to see which radio
> stations do or don't reap the benefits.
>


I hope you all don't mind one of the Louisiana members adding some two cents here.

New Orleans did loose people as well as the Gulf Coast, but finding out that some areas have been spared, as well as the ability to make serious cash (reports in the New Orleans Times Picayune are saying up to $15/hour) for almost no skills, people are coming back to the area espcially with FEMA willing to give you a free travel trailer to use to live for one year (if you were hit by Katrina) while Burger Flippers ar now commanding $8/hour in the metro.

Figures I've seen for Baton Rouge is 200k people over the 200k it had before right now. Baton Rouge now has traffic reports throughout the day due to traffic on radio because of it. But migration to other towns are still to be seen as Louisiana's capital city right now is having a lot of the migrants who may move back to New Orleans once those companies that came to temporarily open leave back for the cresent city.

And the real estate markets in Baton Rouge,Lafayette, and Houma/Thibodaux are a sellers market right now with most trying to buy site unseen, trying to outbid the next person all trying to get out of the city but be close to it for the events and living they grew with.

I don't know how it is in Jackson, but guessing from what I'm hearing , ya'll are looking at some growth but the actual number may be unknown I think for at least a year as some will say they will stay then do to some reason (such as family,employment,etc) will want to go back. But as DE said, the "evacuee" numbers are so outragious right now it's hard to seperate the fact from fiction... I'm not a population analyst but say realisticly 50k extra max IMO for Jackson metro permanent....

I also liked Dead Elvis' report he did on the Louisiana board and I hope ya'll and him got to read mine. I've read that 750k+ people became refugees with Katrina with 250k in shelters and that number is down to 68k right now and those will be forced to find a home or go back to New Orleans and the Gulf Coast. I don't know how many will evacuate permanently but I figure max 250k people spread over a large area (areas hit by Rita and Katrina)..so that's why I said what I did above.

But speculation going on right now is those that don't come back will be "replaced" by other minorities to take the menial jobs that many of the hardest hit working poor won't be there to do.

RFLA

 

[boiseengineer]

Go to : http://www.onlinepressroom.net/arbitron/
and check out the "Update on Five Arbitron Radio Markets...Katrina".