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Jax Reflections & Predictions

Past decisions – good or bad – have a way of manifesting themselves even today. Probably the way to do this subject justice is by company. Let’s start with Cox.

The decision to simulcast news/talk WOKV on FM before it was common to do was brilliant. While music formats fight for fractional shares, WOKV can leap several shares on that big news event. They just keep coming, don’t they? If the Florida primary election is any indication of what is to follow this year being called the most expensive presidential election ever, WOKV/Cox stands to make a fortune.

If vulnerability comes into play, I believe Cox has too many eggs in one basket. I always thought a cluster could be compared to an investment portfolio and it’s just best to diversify.

Last year there was a lot of buzz on these boards that Rock 104.5 would be going away. I’m of the opinion that will not happen in the near future because it goes against how Cox operates – they do give formats ample time to succeed or not.

Interestingly, Cox developed what I considered a very effective TV spot because it put the listener in the center speaking in the voices of typical listeners who wanted more music in the morning. This is one of those rare cases where listener preferences were in line with corporate objectives. Otherwise, most of us are of the opinion the listener doesn’t really matter to them. Still, I thought the spot was a damn good one.

For the sake of discussion only, if Rock 104.5 flipped to something else what would that be? Cox does urban formats very well. As much as this would bring diversity – unintentional pun – to their cluster, I think it would be very expensive to promote and risky given there are already two very established stations.

There is the AC format and IMO there is room for another one, especially for one that is more contemporary. I’ll have a lot more to say on AC later. Doing anything that could negatively impact WAPE would not make any economic sense. There is variety hits and Cox has launched the format elsewhere. However, I think that’s more appropriate for a lower power signal and I think that would impact Eagle. I think if a major move is to happen - it will be non music programming.

Sports I believe makes the most sense. The understanding I have is billing for the format, especially if on FM, is very good. I realize there are already two in the market but both are on AM. One is in a costly litigation battle and maybe that could work to Cox's advantage. The biggest consideration is the costs. Probably a local morning team followed by syndication could work. I'm not sure if Cox even does sports programming anywhere.If they don't, it could be a tough sell for market # 50 to execute.

I'll confess my ignorance here about rock formats. Can active rock elements heard on 104.5 be a part of a new rock format like X102 9? Maybe 25-54 wouldn't be affected too much but 18-34 could be. I'm not sure. But sports would diversify the Cox cluster and attract males which Cox owns anyway. It seems to make sense. Maybe 4 rock stations in the market give everybody something but on the surface things seem way too fragmented. It seems something is going to have to give eventually. Thoughts?
 
IMO...An new urban format would be great to go up against that 93.3 the Beat...their numbers arent so well and their playlist is stale.
 
If a third urban format comes to Jax, it wouldn’t be the first or last time radio brings more of what already exists. It’s rarely about real listener demand. New formats are sold to the public as something that was created just for them. If “them” are a part of a target a company seeks, then it becomes reality.

If an urban format replaced over three decades of rock @ 104.5, it would be met with a lot of angry protest. Cox, however, is known for making very bold moves and they don’t seem to be afraid to make them.

About a decade ago, Cox began pulling the plug on adult formats that featured pop hits and were personality driven. Regardless of how well they performed or how loyal the listeners, it did not fit into their model. Maybe this always existed in radio, but this one size approach to formats in all markets just left a bad taste to those who believed radio should be more responsive to the uniqueness of the community.

When anyone looks at Cox Radio as a company, how can anyone not admit that they are highly successful? They often dominate in most markets, they are lean and mean money making machines and if they have their sights on a market leader, their way of doing things often makes them the victor.

It’s becoming increasingly more difficult to make the case for a different approach to success. PPM results virtually everywhere validate the fact that for music formats, listeners want more music and less or even no talk. Still, exceptions exist and I’m happy they do. It’s all about relevance and I believe too social media can greatly help talent.

Perhaps controversial at the time, but Cox’s decision to sever L&T turned out to be the correct one. As far as sports programming on FM goes, it will happen one day. Flips tend to be very expensive. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a trend where the AM non-music format in the cluster simulcasts on FM replacing the weakest music link. Enjoy the Super Bowl! More to come.
 
Transition 96.9 The Eagle to Adult Hits. Playing Pop, Rock and Alternative Hits from the 60's through today. The station doesn't even need personaities. Just clever liners and imaging. Shoudn't effect WAPE that much. Limit the selection from today however so you don't step on X102-9 or to a lesser extent WAPE. Heck they could stil be called The Eagle in fine, Cox tradition.

X102-9, Keep up the Good Work!

Rock 104-5, given a lot of the stations music can be played on 96.9 they could flip formats. They could give WOKV a full powered FM.

While an Urban Contempory sounds nice I don't know if it could be pulled off. 104.5, Todays R&B and Classic Soul. How well does Clear Channels V101-5 do. If any complaints could be made about 101.5 that Cox could address then you could probaly get somehwere. Then again Cox has a good relationship with Tom Joyner and Micheal Baysden.
 
V 101.5 is doing well...but its by default..they play the same old school mixes every weekend and the syndication and voice tracking is awful.
 
younglee981 said:
V 101.5 is doing well...but its by default..they play the same old school mixes every weekend and the syndication and voice tracking is awful.

Well then Cox could pull off UAC and go after V. Pull off live and local R&B programming. Do local mix shows and whatever else. Cox can even attack V for the heavy syndication at the station.
 
I'm just not seeing Cox flipping a station to an urban format at this time. Does anyone know what billing is like for urban formats in Jax? If there is enough for 3 stations and a key demo is proven to be under served, maybe there could be something to it.

Still, I'd keep my eyes on Cox and the Variety Hits format. If they begin to flip stations elsewhere this year, it may be a sign of things to come even here.

I'm thinking an 80's, 90's and Now AC will find a place in the Jax landscape. Where I think it can have the most impact is RadioNow 97.9. I'm wondering if any of you are seeing what I'm seeing here. There's also a very big Magic 107.3 connection - if you think about it.
 
One way in which Cox-owned WAPE can go after Clear Channel stations 93.3 the Beat and Radio Now 97.9 is to tweak their format slightly by becoming a Rhythmic CHR station, competing directly with both CC stations.

As for a new Urban AC station, I have a proposal for Straight Way Broadcasting, which operates gospel station "Joy 92.5" and Latino station "Caliente 105.3":

1) Work out a deal with Clear Channel to lease one of their HD subchannels of country station WQIK in order to rebroadcast programming on the new 250-watt FM translator W291CI (106.1 FM) (FCC 60 dBU contour map: http://maps.google.com/?q=http://tr...6.1&contour=60&city=JACKSONVILLE&state=FL.kml) in order to be in compliance with the FCC rules for FM translators. This station will be the new home of "Caliente 105.3". After the change, the station will be called "Caliente 106.1" and it will continue to serve the small but growing Latino community in Jacksonville.

2) Right now, "Joy 92.5" is the only Urban Gospel station that is on the FM dial in Jacksonville. However, the station is also an affiliate of the nationally-syndicated Michael Baisden Show, which is a secular show that belongs on an Urban AC station like "V101.5" and it is a "misfit" for a station that plays religious music most of the day. The primary purpose behind this "business decision" is to increase advertising revenue for the station because advertisers are more attracted to well-known, secular, nationally-syndicated shows like Michael Baisden than to the religious-based programming that is on the station for most of the broadcast day. I know that religious-based stations doesn't bring in as much money as secular stations but they provide "family-friendly" programming on the FM dial. In order to satisfy the financial needs of Straight Way Broadcasting, there must be an Urban AC station that will compliment "Joy 92.5" to ensure the future success of FM Urban Gospel in Jacksonville. In order to do that, the gospel-based programming that is currently on 92.5 will move to 105.3 and become "Joy 105.3" and 92.5 will become the all-new "92.5 The Vibe, Jacksonville New #1 Station for Today's R&B, Neo Soul, and Classic Soul", which will have a local morning show, Michael Baisden Show in the afternoons, and a "Quiet Storm"-type show on weeknights. Basically, "92.5 The Vibe" will compete directly with Clear Channel's "V101.5". This will be done after Step 1 has been completed.
 
It's good to see that JohnJax has returned with his "Jax Reflections & Predictions"! I was getting worried that something wasn't quite right with the world without his input! I might be wrong, but I'm guessing that there may not be any wholesale change in the near future, as far as a major FM format flip in Jacksonville. Even though it might be argued that WFYV is the only major FM signal that's somewhat underpeforming, especially in comparison to it's Cox Radio sister stations, the Cox group, as a whole, seems to be in a very healthy position. WEJZ had a great Holiday PPM, even with Magic 107.3's early jump on Christmas music, so that's got to make the folks on Atlantic Blvd. happy! Plus, 99.9 Gator Country has experienced some excellent trends over the past few months, and that did result in a change at WQIK. And even though the Jacksonville Clear Channel group has more work ahead if it wants to regain a larger market share, it appears they're busy in the tweaking mode at their various signals. How much tweaking remains to be seen.
 
Nfladxer allows me the perfect segue to get into Clear Channel.

Despite talented people, the logical question to ask is “why does CC in Jax lag behind?” From my own experiences, I believe large corporations aren’t effective in making timely decisions. There are too many management layers, department heads and the like who have to throw their two-cents into everything because they are so important. In radio, you often have to strike when the iron is hot. CC has missed the mark when it mattered the most.

We all know how long it took to hire a PD @ Magic and fill air shifts including even the recent VT midday shift. When X102-9 was born, it took an eternity for Planet to reduce the spot loads. We’ve learned Planet did not have the support of the previous GM. That was a huge issue and I often wonder if Cox knew that too. Politics sadly is a part of big corporations too.

Many companies have streamlined the approval process where local teams are empowered to make decisions at certain levels. A good start is the PD should have a little more latitude. Format brand is critical. But I believe a PD should have a stronger voice in getting the format-specific syndicated program he/she wants and to have a few more “votes” to add a handful of titles to that weekend music special.

Those in radio are preached to reduce clutter and keep things relevant. Yet, as I see it, the biggest offense come from those who preach. While I can understand the importance of iHeartRadio to the corporation, I believe this corporate agenda item often detracts from the momentum of the format.There has to be a way to make the infomercials an easier pill to swallow.

If you recall the iHeart music festival last year, the artists were mainly contemporary such as Lady Gaga. Magic – an oldies station – participated in the national contest as well as all the other formats here. There was no relevance for the oldies audience. If the PD @ Magic recommended promoting Lady Gaga in a contest, he would have been laughed out of town. As I recall too, Magic's numbers declined during that time. Someone needs to connect the dots.

Listeners are not stupid. The odds at winning in a contest where hundreds, maybe even thousands of other radio stations participate probably doesn’t do as an effective job in promotion as a local contest would. That’s just my opinion.

Senior management does have a place, especially if they have the ability to LISTEN and consider the opinions of those in the field. Last year, CC established format brand coordinators. (I think that’s what they are called.) Anyway, there is a very interesting situation here and it puts me in the cautiously optimistic category as far as Magic goes.

CC Jax’s OM’s brother Keith Abrams is a coordinator for the classic hits/oldies brand. If the brothers are vested in each others' success as I believe they are, it can only mean Magic 107.3 will get a little more support/TLC than what would have been otherwise. They have never sounded better and it really made me feel good seeing a number of favorable comments in some of the other boards regarding Magic 107 3.
.
Potentially, CC can have a very good 2012. There’s a lot of talent in that building who simply need a little more breathing room to shine. As I look at 97.9, I see them as being a bigger player. What I'm not sure of is if corporate dictates the format or if someone like Ryan Seacrest has to be on X# of stations. RadioNow and Magic are currently two stations in a cluster with no ties to each other. If they can truly be "sister stations" the impacts of such a move could tighten that market share spread. I'm sure we are not done with this subject.

And, Nfadxer thanks as always for your kind words. I’ve respected you for a long time and I’m happy you participate here. Happy Listening!
 
WOKV's FM simulcast wasn't some brilliant move to gain younger listeners ahead of that trend, it was because the AM doesn't fully cover the market at night. Plain and simple. They added the North end of the metro to their coverage with the FM signal. But, unfortunately, the plan isn't all that great. WOKV-FM isn't a full-market signal and while better than WOKV-AM at night, it's still spotty when you get as far north as Fernandina Beach/Yulee.
 
GeorgeJ. makes an excellent point about WOKV-AM's night full-market coverage, and about WOKV-FM's market coverage. Even though there are several similar sized medium markets up north with full time 50kw AM signals, some non-directional, Jacksonville, is not one of them. The result: At night, most of the outlying areas lose AM coverage from Jax, especially St. Augustine and the Northern Nassau County-Fernandina-Coastal Southeast Georgia communities. WOKV-AM 690 has the best daytime signal in the market - bar none, but at night, it's pretty much restricted to Duval County. At some point in the future, maybe sooner, maybe not, Cox WILL have to consider pulling the trigger on placing WOKV on one of their full market class CO FM signals. But, in all likelyhood, for now, since both their PPM numbers and revenue share are healthy, there's no real motivation to make that change yet. Money and market considerations will be the main factors when that happens. Then they will have to decide to either jettison 106.5, or move or create a strong niche format on that stick. At this point, if it ever happens, 104.5 seems to be the only viable candidate for a WOKV FM upgrade.
 
nfladxer said:
At some point in the future, maybe sooner, maybe not, Cox WILL have to consider pulling the trigger on placing WOKV on one of their full market class CO FM signals.

Why? Does 'OKV REALLY matter outside of Duval & Northern St.Johns/Clay? I'd say it doesn't.

Why lose revenue by dumping winning formats that Cox has on their C sticks?

G
 
At some point in the future, maybe sooner, maybe not, Cox WILL have to consider pulling the trigger on placing WOKV on one of their full market class CO FM signals.

Why? Does 'OKV REALLY matter outside of Duval & Northern St.Johns/Clay? I'd say it doesn't.

Why lose revenue by dumping winning formats that Cox has on their C sticks?

Yes, I would speculate that the WOKV brand DOES matter outside of Duval and a thin slice of Northern St. Johns County. The Jacksonville Arbitron area is larger than that, and ideally, any major radio player would be smart to make their programming available to the entire market over the air 24/7! It's a perception thing, and an insurance policy to protect their francise. As I stated, this may or may not happen, and if it does, Cox will have to make some tough choices. Sorry, if some may take offense to even the thought of displacing their favorite Rock station, unfortunately, when a good air talent gets displaced, it doesn't seem to raise too many eyebrows anymore. Sad. An entire generation entertained by "image" liners!
 
nfladxer said:
Yes, I would speculate that the WOKV brand DOES matter outside of Duval and a thin slice of Northern St. Johns County.

I disagree. South into St. Johns, you have tourons, St Aug residents (listening to WFOY) and potato farmers. They're not listening.

Point is, 690 & 106.5 cover the poulation centers (and those with diaries or PPM) VERY well. So again, since you don't have any losers on your big sticks now & revenue doesn't appear to be an issue, there's no need to dump & move.

G
 
Upstate, I understand your point, but I don't think you read completely what I've been attempting to communicate. I already stated in my earlier posts on this topic, that while a WOKV FM signal switch is NOT necessary NOW, it's certainly a GOOD possibility in the future if ratings, competition, or other market conditions change. Believe me, COX WILL protect that franchise if necessary! And, yes, I'll agree that some segments of the St. Augustine and St. Johns County population do seem to have a "different" attitude regarding anything "Jacksonville" for whatever reason, if that's what you're indicating. If you believe a strong signal outside Duval County is a waste, why not see if WOKV would be willing to give up that massive AM 690 daytime signal and switch to a 5kw stick and save some cash! Ain't gonna happen!
 
The heavy lifting is done to at least get WOKV to FM. It’s likely a move to a stronger FM signal will happen one day. I agree with the previous poster a lot will depend on what the future brings.

Back to reflections and predictions, I’m thinking history will repeat itself. There seems to be a tendency to want to write off Rock 104.5 and I’m not there. Beauty contest ratings mean nothing. You have X102 9, Rock 104.5 and Eagle 96.9. Which ones are better poised for future growth? What stations can work in harmony with each other (true sister stations) attracting both ends of the 25-54 spectrum? For all we know, Cox can be rather happy with Rock 104.5 and their overall strategy.

It’s 2012. Songs popular in 1975 are now approaching 40 years of age. 8 years ago Cox cited staying ahead of the power curve as they eliminated formats that featured 40 year old music (averaging 1965) replacing it with something a decade + more “modern.” Remember too, there were a number of Cox oldies stations performing very well (Cool 96.9) just as Eagle is today, but it was all about what fit their future model.

In a good number of markets Cox competes with CC and/or CBS Radio. Both companies see the merits of a pop-oriented, rhythmic leaning 60’s/70’s/80’s hits with a little less emphasis on pure rock artists. Cox may feel it isn’t worth throwing a lot of promotional dollars etc. into a format that in effect has no way to go but skew older and is in competition with others who don’t appear to want to pull the plug anytime soon.

What could replace the Eagle Brand? Well, since it has been mentioned a few times 80’s/90’s and more Variety Hits could be THE Ticket. It’s perfect Cox Radio. Sweepers with an attitude. We play what we want –not what you want - screw you. It would be very likely the format would be totally automated saving that almighty dollar.

For Jax, I wouldn’t think this will happen in the short run. But in 2 years Eagle will be 10 years old. Will they continue featuring 70’s music the oldies formats own in 2013, 2014? I don’t think so. X 102 9 playing new rock and Rock 104.5 picking up in time where X leaves off chronologically. Add variety hits or whatever the adult format du jour is into the mix and it sounds like something Cox would do.
 
JohnJax, Excellent reasoning, as usual! Are you sure you're not a radio consultant?! LOL Cox is in a very good ratings and revenue position in Jacksonville, and they WILL evolve as need be. FYI- JohnJax, I'm in your home territory this weekend, and have been listening quite a bit to Majic 102.7 WMXJ. They seem to have refocused their "Classic Hits" presentation somewhat. The playlist IS still very strong with a good mix of decades. But I'm not so sure about their main image liner: "Majic 102-7, playing the best TRACKS of the 60's, 70's and 80's"! Sounds a bit too slick to me. I would guess some research indicates younger listeners may now think songs are tracks (as on a computer, ipod, etc.). I really respect the PD at Majic, just not sure why they want to sound more AOR-ish? Also, I've noticed this before, but I felt it was worth mentioning. While Jacksonville's Magic 107-3 has improved substantially over the past few months in presentation and even the playlist, the audio processing on Orlando's 105.9 Sunny-FM, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale's Majic 102-7 is much better. More depth to the audio with a stronger, but not exaggerated bottom end. Makes more sense playing Classic Hits! WJGH should consider beefing up their audio, just my opinion.
 
After listening a bit more today, the correct WMXJ new main image statement is: "Majic 102-7 playing Classic TRACKS from the 60's, 70's and 80's"! Just wanted to get it right.
 
nfladxer said:
After listening a bit more today, the correct WMXJ new main image statement is: "Majic 102-7 playing Classic TRACKS from the 60's, 70's and 80's"! Just wanted to get it right.

The term "track" or "tracks" has been around for several years as it refers to music. Remember the 8-Track during the 70s? In the early 80s we called Top 40 and CHR "Top Tracks". It's all about imaging and to many listeners the term "tracks" tends to have a modern, cutting edge sound or feel, making the station using it appears to be new while the playlist is classic.
 
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