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Jay Leno Leaving The Tonight Show Next Season???
- Thread starter ChaseW
- Start date
F.M.Hertz said:
Leno debuted in summer as well. The idea wasn't to start the show in the fall with primetime, but to do the big farewell for the departing host in May ratings sweeps. It also gives the new guy 5 months to find his groove before November sweeps.
True, but except for Arsenio, Leno was the only game in town in the summer of 1992. When Conan took over the landscape was dotted with more channels and more options for late-night viewing. Personally, I don't think NBC gave him a chance, and didn't promote him enough. They promoted the Leno 10:00 debacle more than the Tonight Show.
There was always bad blood between Zucker and O'Brien, going all the way back to when they were classmates at Harvard.
I will stand by this argument until the day I die, but I believe that Leno was behind all of this,a nd isn't the nice guy that he wants everyone to think he is. He should have stepped aside, and done maybe 4 to 6 specials during the year like Bob Hope or Jack Benny used to do. Simply, if NBC promoted Conan and gave him a chance, he'd still be the host of NBC's 11:35 show.
(I can't say "Tonight Show" as a franchise because it had its last showing on January 22 2010.)
There was always bad blood between Zucker and O'Brien, going all the way back to when they were classmates at Harvard.
I will stand by this argument until the day I die, but I believe that Leno was behind all of this,a nd isn't the nice guy that he wants everyone to think he is. He should have stepped aside, and done maybe 4 to 6 specials during the year like Bob Hope or Jack Benny used to do. Simply, if NBC promoted Conan and gave him a chance, he'd still be the host of NBC's 11:35 show.
(I can't say "Tonight Show" as a franchise because it had its last showing on January 22 2010.)
I agree with F. M.!
Of course Leno was behind the entire move. Leno should have been the new Bob Hope. His comedy is much funnier when he has time to and develop his routines.
When he was on Letterman's "Late Night", Jay would appear about every 6 months or so. He would do a segment that Letterman would ask him, What is irritating you these days.
I did not know Zucker and Conan were classmates at Harvard.
Of course Leno was behind the entire move. Leno should have been the new Bob Hope. His comedy is much funnier when he has time to and develop his routines.
When he was on Letterman's "Late Night", Jay would appear about every 6 months or so. He would do a segment that Letterman would ask him, What is irritating you these days.
I did not know Zucker and Conan were classmates at Harvard.
I have a hard time believing that NBC is dumping Leno. Yet the Hollywood Reporter says it has TWO sources for its story.
NBC is probably in a panic right now. At the end of the February sweeps they wound up as the FIFTH place network in prime time! They fell not only behind Fox but Univision as well. That's never happened before to one of the original big three networks. So why would they be messing with one of the cornerstones of the network, the Tonight Show? When Carson was doing Tonight, he reportedly was responsible for a quarter of NBC's revenue.
Jay doesn't bring in those numbers. But as far as I know, he's still #1 at 11:35 (10:35 CT and MT). I don't know how Jimmy Fallon does but according to the story, NBC is worried about losing younger viewers to ABC, now that they moved Jimmy Kimmel to 11:35. In my opinion, Kimmel has done his time at 12:05 and deserved the move up to 11:35. He's confident and puts on a good show. I don't get that vibe from Fallon. I always think he's trying sooooo hard, just like his Capital One commercials. You shouldn't have to move heaven and earth to get us to like you. Part of Letterman's appeal is that he doesn't have to work up a sweat just to tell a few jokes.
But that's just my opinion. I suppose NBC figures Fallon has done 12:35 for a few years now and they always have to keep their eye on younger demographics. But what a gamble... Fallon vs. Letterman and Kimmel... and Conan on TBS, at least for the first half hour.
Meanwhile CBS seems content with Letterman at 11:35. Notice Letterman, who controls the 12:35 slot on CBS, never puts on a host who might challenge him someday. First it was Tom Snyder, who was old and has since passed away. Then it was Craig Ferguson, who does a good show but with his Scottish accent is not in the running for 11:35.
Yes, Letterman and Conan have a good rapport. And they were both rejected by NBC for the 11:35 gig. But Conan already has a contract with TBS. And as someone pointed out, he's now hit 50, while the networks' advertising target is 18-49. So even if Letterman would be happy with Conan as his successor, would CBS approve?
I wouldn't be surprised if Jimmy Kimmel was #1 in a couple of years at 11:35. ABC letting him grow for several years at 12:05 may have been the smartest thing they could do.
BTW, when Kimmel was a guest on Howard Stern's show just before he graduated to 11:35, Stern was asking what these guys make. Kimmel speculated that Leno and Letterman probably earn around $12 - $14 million a year. Letterman earns more because he owns his show and Ferguson's show. Kimmel thought that Jon Stewart earns about $8 million. And he only has to do a 30 minute show 4 nights a week. So he probably is happy where he is. Same for Conan, who probably earns a bit less than Stewart but has fewer hassles than when he was working for a big network.
NBC is probably in a panic right now. At the end of the February sweeps they wound up as the FIFTH place network in prime time! They fell not only behind Fox but Univision as well. That's never happened before to one of the original big three networks. So why would they be messing with one of the cornerstones of the network, the Tonight Show? When Carson was doing Tonight, he reportedly was responsible for a quarter of NBC's revenue.
Jay doesn't bring in those numbers. But as far as I know, he's still #1 at 11:35 (10:35 CT and MT). I don't know how Jimmy Fallon does but according to the story, NBC is worried about losing younger viewers to ABC, now that they moved Jimmy Kimmel to 11:35. In my opinion, Kimmel has done his time at 12:05 and deserved the move up to 11:35. He's confident and puts on a good show. I don't get that vibe from Fallon. I always think he's trying sooooo hard, just like his Capital One commercials. You shouldn't have to move heaven and earth to get us to like you. Part of Letterman's appeal is that he doesn't have to work up a sweat just to tell a few jokes.
But that's just my opinion. I suppose NBC figures Fallon has done 12:35 for a few years now and they always have to keep their eye on younger demographics. But what a gamble... Fallon vs. Letterman and Kimmel... and Conan on TBS, at least for the first half hour.
Meanwhile CBS seems content with Letterman at 11:35. Notice Letterman, who controls the 12:35 slot on CBS, never puts on a host who might challenge him someday. First it was Tom Snyder, who was old and has since passed away. Then it was Craig Ferguson, who does a good show but with his Scottish accent is not in the running for 11:35.
Yes, Letterman and Conan have a good rapport. And they were both rejected by NBC for the 11:35 gig. But Conan already has a contract with TBS. And as someone pointed out, he's now hit 50, while the networks' advertising target is 18-49. So even if Letterman would be happy with Conan as his successor, would CBS approve?
I wouldn't be surprised if Jimmy Kimmel was #1 in a couple of years at 11:35. ABC letting him grow for several years at 12:05 may have been the smartest thing they could do.
BTW, when Kimmel was a guest on Howard Stern's show just before he graduated to 11:35, Stern was asking what these guys make. Kimmel speculated that Leno and Letterman probably earn around $12 - $14 million a year. Letterman earns more because he owns his show and Ferguson's show. Kimmel thought that Jon Stewart earns about $8 million. And he only has to do a 30 minute show 4 nights a week. So he probably is happy where he is. Same for Conan, who probably earns a bit less than Stewart but has fewer hassles than when he was working for a big network.
My take:
Demos rule. Carson dealt in 30 shares. Today the networks wet themselves if they can get a 2 in the key demo.
That key demo is (and was in Carson's time) 18-49.
Steve Allen was in his early 30s when he hosted Tonight. Jack Paar got the show at 39 and left at 45.
Carson was 36.
Dave is 66, Jay is 62, Conan is almost 50. Kimmel's 45 and Fallon's 38.
Johnny threw the demos out of whack by staying 30 years instead of 10 or 15. And Dave and Jay ar doing the same thing. They're at 21 and counting. Great for their bank accounts, not terrific for delivering a consistently attractive audience to advertisers.
NBC has wanted Jay gone for...well, ever. Bill Carter's book makes it clear they thought twice about Letterman after doing the Leno deal. They signed Conan to reolace Jay...what...five years in advance?
And the Fallon talk started almost as soon as Conan was gone and Jay was back on Tonight.
I don't think Dave quits until he's sure Jay's gone. And given how Jay has played this game in the past, Fallon could be another interim host between Jay's second and third runs.
And I think you're right...in the meantime, the momentum, especially in 18-34, is Kimmel's. By the time Fallon gets his act together (if he does) and Dave decides it's time to go, NBC and CBS could be playing a huge game of catch-up.
As at sea as NBC is this year, it wouldn't surprise me if at least one Comcast exec floats the idea of giving 11:35 to Ted Koppel (now an NBC correspondent on Rock Center) and letting him re-create Nightline.
Demos rule. Carson dealt in 30 shares. Today the networks wet themselves if they can get a 2 in the key demo.
That key demo is (and was in Carson's time) 18-49.
Steve Allen was in his early 30s when he hosted Tonight. Jack Paar got the show at 39 and left at 45.
Carson was 36.
Dave is 66, Jay is 62, Conan is almost 50. Kimmel's 45 and Fallon's 38.
Johnny threw the demos out of whack by staying 30 years instead of 10 or 15. And Dave and Jay ar doing the same thing. They're at 21 and counting. Great for their bank accounts, not terrific for delivering a consistently attractive audience to advertisers.
NBC has wanted Jay gone for...well, ever. Bill Carter's book makes it clear they thought twice about Letterman after doing the Leno deal. They signed Conan to reolace Jay...what...five years in advance?
And the Fallon talk started almost as soon as Conan was gone and Jay was back on Tonight.
I don't think Dave quits until he's sure Jay's gone. And given how Jay has played this game in the past, Fallon could be another interim host between Jay's second and third runs.
And I think you're right...in the meantime, the momentum, especially in 18-34, is Kimmel's. By the time Fallon gets his act together (if he does) and Dave decides it's time to go, NBC and CBS could be playing a huge game of catch-up.
As at sea as NBC is this year, it wouldn't surprise me if at least one Comcast exec floats the idea of giving 11:35 to Ted Koppel (now an NBC correspondent on Rock Center) and letting him re-create Nightline.
michael hagerty said:
+1
For one thing, it's a game of pride with Jay and Dave. Neither is going to willingly give up their chairs first.
Second, I'm in the same school of thought as F.M.Hertz above -- Leno will have to be carried off that stage kicking and screaming. It will take an airtight contract for Fallon with no possibility of a repeat of the Conan/Jay "drawmah." In other words, I'll believe Leno is gone when he's really and truly gone from 11:35.
If indeed this goes through, I look for David Letterman to go another year before retiring. Just my own gut, of course.
I'm unable to embrace Conan or Fallon's humor -- it skews much younger than my own tastes -- but Kimmel seems a cut above, if only going by his performance on "Win Ben Stein's Money." (that should tell you I haven't sampled his ABC show
)My ultimate prediction: when the smoke clears, ABC - for now - will have the last laugh. At the same time, all the players will soon have to think of something else, because the clock is ticking for the "couch show" genre.
--Russell
KML-224 said:
he never did shows on Monday night until his final NBC years
I can remember hearing Letterman in an interview somewhere where he was asked when he would retire and he answered something like the day after Leno. It was done in kind of a joking way, but it wouldn't surprise me if he holds out until Leno is gone for good and then steps down.
F.M.Hertz said:
I agree for the most part. But...a big but...as a big fan on Conan, I really felt there was something off about that show. It never jelled for me. It had funny moments, but was mostly slow moving and unfunny for me. Skits like Concando and The Twitter Tracker were overlong, unfunny, and repeated WAY too often.
Conan's TBS show is far superior, IMO. Considering he's using many of the same staff and writers, it's a mystery to me that his short reign over Tonight was so lackluster, but (IMO), it was not good.
I also recall that Leno had a lackluster first few months, but, as stated above, his show had more time to grow and evolve.
Adult Swim draws more 18-34 men than any late night host. Some people just aren't interested in talk shows. Carson was the only option 30 years ago.
nomadcowatbk said:
That's why I suggested Henry Rollins for a new Late Late night spot. It would be cheap to produce as some of Daly's shows appear to be recorded up to a month in advance. He'd pull the same demo as Adult Swim and after a few years he might be popular enough to take an even earlier spot.
The big question would be how much money would it take to convince Rollins to "sell out".
PTBoardOp94 suggested: said:
In early 1957, when Steve Allen left "Tonight" to concentrate on his weekly Sunday-night variety hour (for seven months beginning in June of 1956, Allen did his Sunday-night show plus "The Tonight Show" on Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays"), NBC tried something called "Tonight: America After Dark".
While I'm too young to have seen it when it was on, and I haven't been able to find any clips of it on You Tube, it supposedly was a late-night version of "Today" with a heavy emphasis on news and current events.
For most of it's run, it's host was Jack Lescoulie, who had been on (and would, after "America After Dark ended, return to) "Today". For the last few weeks (after NBC had decided to replace "America After Dark" with Jack Paar in a format similar to the original "Tonight Show"), New York radio personality Al "Jazzbo" Collins served as an interim host until Paar and his producers were ready.
The show was a flop, losing viewers, stations, and sponsors. During the last months of Steve Allen's tenure, "Tonight" was carried by about 125 NBC stations. By the time "America After Dark" ended, only about 60 NBC stations were carrying it. By the end of 1957, Paar had doubled the number of stations carrying NBC's late night programming; by 1959, "Tonight" was on all but a handful of NBC affiliates (and in cities where the local NBC affiliate had passed on Paar, another station usually picked it up).
Why should Jay have retired or semi-retired? Jay was the bad guy in the early 90's, but I think Conan was more the bad guy here. Lets run down what happened from the start.F.M.Hertz said:
2004 Conan demands tonight show spot, or threatens to goto FOX or ABC who at the time were trying to get him. NBC doesn't want that, but doesn't want Conan as tonight show host yet either. NBC in all its wisdom thinks that in 5 yrs Jay will be ready to retire, and his ratings will be ready to decline. So a agreement is made between Conan & NBC, that in 5 yrs Conan will take over the tonight show. Jay was probably not happy, but he plays the company man and acts happy about it. Perhaps at the time he figured in 5 yrs i will probably be ready to retire anyway.
All is well for 4 yr.
2008 Jay realizes he doesn't want to retire & ABC wants him.
NBC seeing Jay's ratings are still strong start beeping their pants at the idea of Jay on ABC, just as they did 4 yrs before when ABC was trying to get Conan.
Someone at NBC had the brilliant idea to save some money by scraping 10:00 prime time programing, and havning Leno.
NBC offers Leno a boatload of money to do 10:00 show. Conan was probably not happy, but he plays the company man and acts happy about it.
All is well again
Conan starts tonight show. After a strong 1st week ratings take a dive.
Conan blames the fact that it is summer on the decline, but Letterman repeats were beating him.
Jay's new show starts & is a flop
Both Jay & Conan's show are struggling. Conan now blames the weak Leno leadin for why his show is struggling.
NBC realizes it made a mistake about not programing 10:00PM, but can't fire Leno because his contract is gaurenteed
Conan on the otherhand had a stipulation that the network could delay his show as late as 12:05
So NBC decided to move Jay's show to 11:35, but shorten it to a 1/2 hr & tonight show to start at 12:05.
Jay agrees, but Conan not happy. Network tells Conan to take it or leave it.
Conan leaves & tonight show becomes Jay's again.
So outside not ready to retire how is Jay at fault? I mean I will give him a little blame, but out of the 3 parties I think he deserves the least. Fact is if Conan hadn't tried to bump him off back in 04, none of this would've happened. Conan would probably be on the verge of getting the tonight show now, or would be 8 yrs into a fox/abc run battling it out with Leno/Letterman
In my view, the blame goes to NBC. They have failed at almost every turn to stand by their choices.
Other networks wanted Letterman before Johnny retired. But Dave loved Johnny and wasn't about to take him on as a competitor. He really believed that loyalty, which carried over to NBC, would result in his succeeding Johnny on Tonight.
When the time came, the network, as detailed in Bill Carter's book "The Late Shift", couldn't make up its mind...picked Jay, screwed Dave, then very nearly turned around and screwed Jay before deciding to keep him after all.
From that moment 21 years ago on, there is no reason for any NBC talent to believe that good work and loyalty will result in being given The Tonight Show.
Conan should have taken ABC's offer in 2005. He'd either be big or be gone by now. We'd know if he worked at 11:35, if he could beat or even hold his own with Jay or Dave.
But he probably thought that not having the Tonight Show brand could be a handicap. Better to take the guarantee, stay loyal to the network, have the Tonight Show brand and have one less competitor (Jay) to contend with.
And the network again can't make up its mind, this time manages to keep both Jay and Conan, and sets them both up to fail. Even if Conan's numbers hadn't dipped in week 2, lead-in matters, and Jay's 10PM show weakened NBC affiliate late newscasts, which almost certainly would have hurt Conan.
So the network tries to have it all again, by giving Jay half an hour before Conan at 11:35 and Conan says enough. As well he should. Even if he's on basic cable the rest of his life, it's better than that kind of BS.
Suppose Conan had rolled over and accepted 12:05. Now, two years later, NBC wants to blow Jay up again. Think they'd go back to Conan? Think Conan could trust them even if they did?
At least Conan got $45 mil on the way out the door (on top of 19 years of whatever he made doing Late Night).
At least Jay got somewhere north of $10 mil a year for 21 years.
But, God, I'd hate to be Jimmy Fallon given all that. I'd probably be asking Lorne if I could come back to SNL instead.
Other networks wanted Letterman before Johnny retired. But Dave loved Johnny and wasn't about to take him on as a competitor. He really believed that loyalty, which carried over to NBC, would result in his succeeding Johnny on Tonight.
When the time came, the network, as detailed in Bill Carter's book "The Late Shift", couldn't make up its mind...picked Jay, screwed Dave, then very nearly turned around and screwed Jay before deciding to keep him after all.
From that moment 21 years ago on, there is no reason for any NBC talent to believe that good work and loyalty will result in being given The Tonight Show.
Conan should have taken ABC's offer in 2005. He'd either be big or be gone by now. We'd know if he worked at 11:35, if he could beat or even hold his own with Jay or Dave.
But he probably thought that not having the Tonight Show brand could be a handicap. Better to take the guarantee, stay loyal to the network, have the Tonight Show brand and have one less competitor (Jay) to contend with.
And the network again can't make up its mind, this time manages to keep both Jay and Conan, and sets them both up to fail. Even if Conan's numbers hadn't dipped in week 2, lead-in matters, and Jay's 10PM show weakened NBC affiliate late newscasts, which almost certainly would have hurt Conan.
So the network tries to have it all again, by giving Jay half an hour before Conan at 11:35 and Conan says enough. As well he should. Even if he's on basic cable the rest of his life, it's better than that kind of BS.
Suppose Conan had rolled over and accepted 12:05. Now, two years later, NBC wants to blow Jay up again. Think they'd go back to Conan? Think Conan could trust them even if they did?
At least Conan got $45 mil on the way out the door (on top of 19 years of whatever he made doing Late Night).
At least Jay got somewhere north of $10 mil a year for 21 years.
But, God, I'd hate to be Jimmy Fallon given all that. I'd probably be asking Lorne if I could come back to SNL instead.
Bad argument by Irishfl. And yes, Michael, Conan was approached by ABC and Fox. So, if that theory works, blame those two networks. You can also blame NBC.
Let's say you are a young executive trying to move up in your company. You are loyal, and do everything that you can, but realize that you're in a dead-end position. Your supervisor isn't about to retire, but your accomplishments are being noticed by a couple of different firms around town. They express some interest in you, but aren't ready to commit to anything yet. However, they also mention that if you're looking to spread your wings and look at some options, they might be willing to talk and see what happens. Maybe a better salary is brought up, a chance to run a division, or some other perks might be offered. What do you do?
Are you going to stay with your company, or are you going to take a chance and at least take a look at what's being offered? That's the situation here, and that's what Conan was doing in 2004. Just listening to see what ABC and Fox would offer if he were to go across town. He didn't commit to anything. He wasn't promised anything. Some situations were presented to him to see if there was any interest by either or these networks or Conan.
Also, Conan was all too aware of what went on at NBC from the time Johnny Carson announced his retirement until he took over the 12:35 slot. He worked in the same building as Letterman and had an inside knowledge of how NBC operates. So, if you're theory somewhat works, I'd be looking around at other networks too.
Remember, Bill Carter wrote in The Late Shift that the 11th hour deal that Peter Lassally had with NBC to give Letterman "The Tonight Show?" It was a bad deal from the start and was designed by NBC to punish Letterman. Letterman was convinced at the last moment by Johnny to walk. Lassally called Johnny to beg him to talk to Dave. Johnny said he would, but Dave had to call him. The main gist of their conversation was Johnny telling Dave that if he were in this situation he would walk as well. Also, ABC tried to lure Johnny to jump ship in that 70s. Carson was a little bit more tenacious than Conan and used that as a barganing chip in negotiating with NBC back in the day.
We can agree to disagree, but I don't see Conan O'Brien bullying the top brass at NBC to give him "The Tonight Show" or else. It's not his style.Besides, would you wait 5 years to get a promotion?
Let's say you are a young executive trying to move up in your company. You are loyal, and do everything that you can, but realize that you're in a dead-end position. Your supervisor isn't about to retire, but your accomplishments are being noticed by a couple of different firms around town. They express some interest in you, but aren't ready to commit to anything yet. However, they also mention that if you're looking to spread your wings and look at some options, they might be willing to talk and see what happens. Maybe a better salary is brought up, a chance to run a division, or some other perks might be offered. What do you do?
Are you going to stay with your company, or are you going to take a chance and at least take a look at what's being offered? That's the situation here, and that's what Conan was doing in 2004. Just listening to see what ABC and Fox would offer if he were to go across town. He didn't commit to anything. He wasn't promised anything. Some situations were presented to him to see if there was any interest by either or these networks or Conan.
Also, Conan was all too aware of what went on at NBC from the time Johnny Carson announced his retirement until he took over the 12:35 slot. He worked in the same building as Letterman and had an inside knowledge of how NBC operates. So, if you're theory somewhat works, I'd be looking around at other networks too.
Remember, Bill Carter wrote in The Late Shift that the 11th hour deal that Peter Lassally had with NBC to give Letterman "The Tonight Show?" It was a bad deal from the start and was designed by NBC to punish Letterman. Letterman was convinced at the last moment by Johnny to walk. Lassally called Johnny to beg him to talk to Dave. Johnny said he would, but Dave had to call him. The main gist of their conversation was Johnny telling Dave that if he were in this situation he would walk as well. Also, ABC tried to lure Johnny to jump ship in that 70s. Carson was a little bit more tenacious than Conan and used that as a barganing chip in negotiating with NBC back in the day.
We can agree to disagree, but I don't see Conan O'Brien bullying the top brass at NBC to give him "The Tonight Show" or else. It's not his style.Besides, would you wait 5 years to get a promotion?
I don't blame Conan or the other networks.
NBC has screwed it up from Johnny's retirement onward.
My only point about Conan in 2005 is if he'd gone to ABC or Fox, he'd either be big or gone by now. But I understand what he was thinking when he chose to stay.
NBC has screwed it up from Johnny's retirement onward.
My only point about Conan in 2005 is if he'd gone to ABC or Fox, he'd either be big or gone by now. But I understand what he was thinking when he chose to stay.
I feel that the idea of Jay Leno having a prime-time show on NBC in the Fall of 2009 was actually a good one.
Where NBC erred was that they gave Jay the wrong kind of show.
NBC should have given Leno a one-hour, once-a-week, big-budget comedy/variety show in the traditional comedy/variety format.
Had NBC done that, I think Jay Leno would have been a huge prime-time hit (and would be still doing that show), Conan O'Brien would still be on the "Tonight Show", and Jimmy Fallon would probably be looking forward to spending another decade at 12:30 A.M.
If the Hollywood Reporter story is true, it could indeed be very nasty for NBC. One discussion that supposedly happened in 2009 between Leno and NBC, as quoted in Bill Carter's The War For Late Night, Leno is said to have stated "I Do Jokes At 11:30 P.M.!".
Where NBC erred was that they gave Jay the wrong kind of show.
NBC should have given Leno a one-hour, once-a-week, big-budget comedy/variety show in the traditional comedy/variety format.
Had NBC done that, I think Jay Leno would have been a huge prime-time hit (and would be still doing that show), Conan O'Brien would still be on the "Tonight Show", and Jimmy Fallon would probably be looking forward to spending another decade at 12:30 A.M.
If the Hollywood Reporter story is true, it could indeed be very nasty for NBC. One discussion that supposedly happened in 2009 between Leno and NBC, as quoted in Bill Carter's The War For Late Night, Leno is said to have stated "I Do Jokes At 11:30 P.M.!".
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